THAI TALK

Will the rabbit offer a year of relief? Don't bet on it

By Suthichai Yoon

The Nation

I have consulted my personal astrologer and he tells me that 2011 is going to be a more placid year - which is a great relief after the ferocious year of the tiger. But he also warns me that the rabbit's gentleness could be deceptive.

This means we might lick some of our deep wounds and get some rest after the battles of 2010. But I seriously doubt that we will really get a good break from the bad news. I suspect that while the red-yellow confrontation may fade into the background, this year will be dominated by all the political manipulators and canvassers. It's going to be a fierce, rapacious election year.

But the fortune-teller advised me that since it's the year of the rabbit, good taste and refinement will shine on everything and people will acknowledge that persuasion is better than force. He predicted a congenial period in which diplomacy and international relations will be given a front seat again.

I told him he was being too optimistic and that he didn't understand the depth of Thai politics. He retorted, "You were born in the year of the dog; you don't appreciate the subtlety of the rabbit."

But despite his optimistism, the prophet, after checking the stars, admitted to me that 2011 will be a time to watch out for what he described as "over-indulgence". The influence of the rabbit, he said, tends to spoil those who wallow in comfort, thereby impairing their effectiveness and, more importantly, their sense of duty.

What I can't accept is his prediction that in 2011, according to his theory anyway, law and order will be lax; rules and regulations will not be rigidly enforced. He warned against complacency because the (elusive?) quiet and calm could deteriorate into somnolence.

And when he declared that we will put off disagreeable tasks for as long as possible, I immediately agreed and said, "Political reform is the case in point, right?" He smiled and replied, "I don't do details and specific predictions on politics."

I told him he wasn't being very helpful in my pursuit of the most possible scenario for Thailand this year.

But he did tell me that anyone born in the year of the rabbit possesses one of the most fortunate of the twelve animal signs. The rabbit, he explained, symbolises graciousness, good manners, sound counsel, kindness and sensitivity to beauty. Its soft touch and graceful and nimble ways embody all the desirable traits of a successful diplomat or seasoned politician.

But the astrologer added that a person born in the year of the rabbit is also inclined to be moody; and when he is temperamental, he appears detached from his environment or indifferent to people.

The rabbit, he added, is highly fortunate in business and monetary transactions. He is also astute at striking bargains, always coming up with a proposal or alternative that benefits himself. His sharp business acumen, coupled with his knack for negotiation, will ensure a fast rise in any career, the astrologer explained.

That sounds, to me, more like what my political scientist friend tells me. It's going to be a year when politicians strike deals and exercise all their negotiation skills to stay on top of the game, no matter how dirty and convoluted the tricks and machinations involved.

But then, I read somewhere else that you shouldn't be fooled by the outward and misleadingly docile nature of a rabbit because he possesses a strong will and an almost narcissistic self-assurance. He won't make waves. The special trait that makes the rabbit a formidable negotiator is his inscrutability.

That convinces me that 2011 won't be an easy year for political interpretation because it won't be what it appears to be. Why? My astrologer confirmed that a rabbit usually has impeccable manners. He won't use harsh words or resort to foul language to bring home a point. That's because he has his own techniques for making his position clear.

The rabbit, it is said, can hide under this cloak of decency to undermine opponents. If he is after something, he will cater to your every whim. Then, when you have eaten your fill, he will pull out the contract for you to sign. Before you know it, he has cut you off at the knees. He can be so deft in handling you that you won't even feel any pain when everything has been taken away from you.

What have all these scenarios got to do with an election year of shameless political manoeuvring and outright populism?

Do I need to say any more? Happy New Year.

-- The Nation 2011-01-06

Everybody who has come into contact with rabbits knows exactly what they are famous for. If this is the year of the rabbit my forecast after casting the bones on the ground is that everybody will get screwed - by those who have done so ever since ............. And it won't be by rabbits!

I understand that Australia was once overrun by rabbits. I don't know how they have managed it but the only ones on public display these days wear baggy green caps.