BURNING ISSUE

Ballots must not be cast on a whim

By Avudh Panananda

The Nation

Voting has been set for July 3, and if the outcome is loud and clear, then the country might finally overcome its political malady.

This time around, the country's future is in people's hands and voters should be fully aware of what is at stake and avoid making their decision on a whim. Each ballot will have a greater consequence than merely choosing a new government. Regardless of who emerges as winner, the political landscape is going change. The question is, will this change be for the better or worse?

In the worst-case scenario, the outcome would be a split vote, meaning the two rival parties - Democrat and Pheu Thai - defeat each other by a razor-thin majority, while a large portion of the votes are spread among smaller parties. Then the next government will be unstable and street protests will continue.

The next-worst scenario would be if a significant number of voters cast a blank ballot in response to the People's Alliance for Democracy's "no vote" campaign. Should blank ballots exceed 20 per cent of the votes cast, PAD-led protests will resume regardless of whether the Democrat or Pheu Thai party takes the reins.

In the best-case scenario, either the Democrats or Pheu Thai would secure a clear victory and pave the way for a stable government, silencing their respective opponents and ending the war of political colours once and for all.

The next-best scenario would be if one of the two rival parties gained enough votes to form a working coalition, but not enough to outpace the other. This would lead to a weak government and strong opposition. A snap election would likely follow next year once the five-year ban of 111 Thai Rak Thai executives expires.

With campaigning about to begin, more than one in three voters remains undecided, and the poll outcome could go either way because of swing votes.

Should the campaigning fail to sway the undecided, the second-best scenario could likely emerge, allowing the next government to hold power until the barred politicians can resume their activities.

However, no matter what, voters should not send out mixed messages to trigger the worst-case scenario. There could be a repeat of bloodshed because the rival camps would decipher the message in accordance to what they want to hear. If politicians are not able to settle old scores via the ballot box, they will continue fighting in the streets.

If voters do turn out in large numbers and deliver an unmistakable message, then a landslide victory could transform the political landscape.

Should the Democrats win a controlling majority, Pheu Thai would end up becoming a ship destined for decommissioning. Voters opting for the Democrats will prove that Thaksin Shinawatra's autocratic style of leadership cannot be accepted.

If Pheu Thai emerges victorious, then it will clearly show that the people are ready to accept a drastic political transformation.

Of course, with Pheu Thai in power, the Democrats would revert to their role of noisy opposition, and the political landscape would have to brace for two contentious issues.

The first would be Pheu Thai seeking a parliamentary act that grants amnesty to Thaksin.

The second would be Thaksin and Pheu Thai honouring the promises they made to the red shirts about rewriting the Constitution. It is an open secret that the red shirts want to amend provisions on the monarchy, particularly those that apply to the Privy Council.

-- The Nation 2011-05-10

In the best-case scenario, either the Democrats or Pheu Thai would secure a clear victory and pave the way for a stable government, silencing their respective opponents and ending the war of political colours once and for all.

That's the best case scenario is it?

It may be if the last three parts of that statement happen, but the chances of that are slim.

No newspaper columnist has yet gone to the trouble to outline just exactly how easy or difficult it will be for a Peua Thai governing coalition to free Thaksin. This is the big question really. It's being called a 'Thaksin comeback' but it seems to me that there are several hurdles to overcome, in order to pardon the man on two counts. Even with an outright majority I doubt the govt would be able to just grant a pardon (only the king can do that apparently) without some legal justification. Then there's the senate, the supreme court challenging the act, not to mention the people on the streets.

With Thaksin pulling the strings behind the scenes he can obviously start sending foe to inactive posts and eventually put his own 'men' in the judiciary, but as long as he is not free he will need to be nice to his enemies in order to bargain. Besides, if we were to completely walk free (with his political ban expiring within a year) the first thing he'll likely do is put the army in the dock, there's going to be a lot of opposition to that.

The next-best scenario would be if one of the two rival parties gained enough votes to form a working coalition, but not enough to outpace the other. This would lead to a weak government and strong opposition. A snap election would likely follow next year once the five-year ban of 111 Thai Rak Thai executives expires.

If the Democrats can form a working coalition, as they have now, then they won't be calling a snap election next year.