Rubber Trees

[thaiguzzi]

Price projection for the April 2016 to Feb 2017 season, cup rubber. Starting in the mid 20's, dropping to the low to mid teens. Same as this year. I doubt it will drop below the 12 baht range.

[Gary A]

If I had the misfortune of having rubber trees, I'd be looking to stop cutting and look for a crop that likes shade to plant between the trees until the rubber price gets better. You could keep your tappers and use them to plant and take care of the new crop which is likely to be labor intensive.

[farmerjo]

Although not a rubber farmer i've followed it closely over the last eleven years.

To diversify it would cost a lot of capital to take out rows and cut back canopies for some type of alley farming system to be implemented.

(that's if plantations are facing east-west)

Would be interested to hear rubber farmers views on this after having already spent considerable time and money to establish them.

Would you look to alley farm,take out a whole section as one piece to diversify or just ride out the storm till prices improve.

[thoongfoned]

got the bill of sale, 16 baht at local auction. tree were giving just over the half kg in the last 14 ish days, I say this coz I don't think the trees are being cut all the time, workers busy with cane cutting now.... so maybe a little more per tree due to lack of nights "working". got the boss to tell the workers to stop now, paint that red stuff on the cuts and let the tree "rest". we have such a small time frame of money coming in from the tree being "worked" that the money is neither here nor there but I do feel for the family that work the trees.......

for us we will just leave the tree if they get worked all the good if not, oh well..... around the tree is all cane now, the shoots are just showing on a newly planted 20 plus rai,

I can not see the price getting any better this coming season re cup rubber, just hope it don't go do low, but maybe that could be a good thing and stop production, hence drive the demand back up in the coming years, must be loads of new rubber coming on line in the Asian area now and with all this "free" movement about to start what with the asean deal ect I can see crops coming and going across borders a lot more, good for some but not all...............

[Charlie1]

Good luck with that Charlie1. Get great rain down that way. Wats palm oil per kilo now. I know its up and down too but just wondering? Love palm oil farms they look awsom.

What are you doing next?

Cheers Cobbler

Hi Cobbler, palm prices are ok. I've recorded the price we've been selling since 2012 (See attached file).

The reason we're selling is that we need the money for a resort project we want to build.

Cheers!

talking of palm........ what are you getting average per rai for the last year then? how old the palm?

on the rubber - cutters sold the other day not got the bill yet, not expecting much....... saw the lady of the team today and said in my best issan don't bother with the trees the money is toooo small, just a smile and its ok............. the "boss" my wife thinks the same, just leave the tree for the forseeable........ what you guys recon the price will go to in the coming year........... im not a betting man but I would think sub 10 baht is on the cards, not good data floating about at the present.....

all the best to you rubber farmers.......

Hi Thoongfoned, the real net we get from the palm trees after deduction of all costs (Pui, cutters, weed cutting, leaves cutting, etc..) is approx. 1.000 Baht per Rai per month on an average which I have calculated in the last 4 years. The trees are 13 years old now. They will keep on producing for the next 10 years, but a little less at the end. A great thing is that you can plant new ones in between before the old ones are being cut. As the new ones will start producing after the 3rd year, you don't have the long stretch of no income like rubber. Just a little less for a period of 3 years approximately.

[cobbler]

Thanks, maybe my wife should put palm on her land, she has tried cassava and cane, but neither one was very successful.

no offence mate,but i wouldnt recomend it.

[cobbler]

Although not a rubber farmer i've followed it closely over the last eleven years.

To diversify it would cost a lot of capital to take out rows and cut back canopies for some type of alley farming system to be implemented.

(that's if plantations are facing east-west)

Would be interested to hear rubber farmers views on this after having already spent considerable time and money to establish them.

Would you look to alley farm,take out a whole section as one piece to diversify or just ride out the storm till prices improve.

mate the rubber trees have surface roots plus 1 tap root. Forget your idea . No offense .

Iff youre going to do that it needs to be done at time of planting baby rubber trees.

Cheers cobbler

[cobbler]

Good luck with that Charlie1. Get great rain down that way. Wats palm oil per kilo now. I know its up and down too but just wondering? Love palm oil farms they look awsom.

What are you doing next?

Cheers Cobbler

Hi Cobbler, palm prices are ok. I've recorded the price we've been selling since 2012 (See attached file).

The reason we're selling is that we need the money for a resort project we want to build.

Cheers!

talking of palm........ what are you getting average per rai for the last year then? how old the palm?

on the rubber - cutters sold the other day not got the bill yet, not expecting much....... saw the lady of the team today and said in my best issan don't bother with the trees the money is toooo small, just a smile and its ok............. the "boss" my wife thinks the same, just leave the tree for the forseeable........ what you guys recon the price will go to in the coming year........... im not a betting man but I would think sub 10 baht is on the cards, not good data floating about at the present.....

all the best to you rubber farmers.......

Hi Thoongfoned, the real net we get from the palm trees after deduction of all costs (Pui, cutters, weed cutting, leaves cutting, etc..) is approx. 1.000 Baht per Rai per month on an average which I have calculated in the last 4 years. The trees are 13 years old now. They will keep on producing for the next 10 years, but a little less at the end. A great thing is that you can plant new ones in between before the old ones are being cut. As the new ones will start producing after the 3rd year, you don't have the long stretch of no income like rubber. Just a little less for a period of 3 years approximately.

yes palm oil has that however,nothing to sell at end of tree life. They are all pushed up and burnt. No offence

Cheers Cobbler

[cobbler]

If I had the misfortune of having rubber trees, I'd be looking to stop cutting and look for a crop that likes shade to plant between the trees until the rubber price gets better. You could keep your tappers and use them to plant and take care of the new crop which is likely to be labor intensive.

prik ki gnoo,pakwan,prik thai. You need good water, as the rubber trees suck moisture out of soil ,anything u plant will die or nearly if no irrigation.

Cheers Cobbler

[M1keM1ke]

I would think someone sells a hand-held computerized hydrometers to measure the water content. I don't see one anywhere on the internet. Maybe because the rubber/latex market is limited ?

[Issangeorge]

Actually by the time we get the real hot weather, we also start to get some rain. There is a guy in our village doing about 30 Rai. I don't know how well he does, but no one else has copied him, so I figure he either isn't doing all that well or keeps his success to himself. Many are doing rubber, and their trees are just coming on line now, so I don't imagine they are two happy. I thought about rubber, but was advised against it. Glad I took the advise.

[cobbler]

Are the palm oil tree giving fruit yet George. ? If so go and walk around if he doesnt mind . Have a look at the trees and see how many fruit per tree. If none it could be because wrong time. If they have 2 or 3 in different stages of growth ,this is good. Especially if the oldest 1 is big.. if not much happening keep an eye on them for a few months. If all the bunches ,especially the biggest 1 has dark fruit but bunch is smaller than a football it a waste of time and money.

Maybe good but i still think your going to need irrigation. If rubber doesnt give good flow in the area, palm oil wont be good either without irrigation.

Hope this is of some help to you.

Cheers Cobbler

[thoongfoned]

re palm. in our area udon thani over the last three or four years I have spoken with (not visited) a good few fellas that have planted palm, all this is very heavily irrigated will large bore holes ect.... have not asked about yields thats why I asked Charlie, when I see these fellas next I will ask numbers........ (too me rubber makes a better return even if the price is low like now) a thai family that we do business with up the road has planted palm and rubber in the last few years, palm irrigated again but to me looks "stunted" in growth, on the other hand the rubber trees look ok and have no irrigation, they look after the land ect and do not penny pinch in looking after either crop.

rubber is a long term investment and yields money for a very long time, look at the last fifty or so years, always peaks and lows on a mad scale........ just gotta be able to ride out the sh3t times to enjoy the good, like in most things.

rubber per rai per year is a good investment in my mind (by Thai standards)if you have the start up cash to forget and the time of course....... to me, your partner or wife will always be the winner re the land appreciation over time anyway. ( even if someone burns down your trees......)

[Charlie1]

Cobbler:

You're right Cobbler, but you don't need that extra money from the sales of wood if you have a steady income with the palm. The other thing is, many people are taking down their rubber here because earnings are too low. That has resulted in a very low price for the wood. Don't know the exact price they're getting paid for it, but I hear complaints all over that it has dropped dramatically.

[thaiguzzi]

Cobbler:

You're right Cobbler, but you don't need that extra money from the sales of wood if you have a steady income with the palm. The other thing is, many people are taking down their rubber here because earnings are too low. That has resulted in a very low price for the wood. Don't know the exact price they're getting paid for it, but I hear complaints all over that it has dropped dramatically.

1200 baht per metric tonne in Udon province.

[thaiguzzi]

If I had the misfortune of having rubber trees, I'd be looking to stop cutting and look for a crop that likes shade to plant between the trees until the rubber price gets better. You could keep your tappers and use them to plant and take care of the new crop which is likely to be labor intensive.

# No, can't afford to pay tappers 300 - 350 baht per day per person starting a new crop/idea/investment.

# The latest price we got was 16 baht per kg for cup at auction. On the current 55/45% split (normal 60/40), my missus is still clearing after everything 35k per month. Staff; two teams of two people, husband and wife are clearing (take home pay) 14-16k per month per couple. Where else, and what else brings that money in, in an agricultural enviroment in Isaan? Even at current sh#tty prices. None.

# We did think last year of clearing one rai of our poorest trees near the house, that also has access to pumped water, and going into lime trees in concrete rings. We had an expert (ex Israel Thai farmer) lined up to set it all up, then before you know it, everybody is doing lime trees in concrete rings. An explosion of the bloody things. Knocked that one on the head.

# As stated above by others, if you've got a lot of trees, and they are big, strong, healthy trees, best just ride out the storm. Prices will come back, even at 35-40 baht per kg for cup, 70 for sheet, tappers and owners will be happy.

# In the meantime, the small, poor output trees, and several first generation rubber farmers will give it up, and move onto another crop.

[cobbler]

Cobbler:

You're right Cobbler, but you don't need that extra money from the sales of wood if you have a steady income with the palm. The other thing is, many people are taking down their rubber here because earnings are too low. That has resulted in a very low price for the wood. Don't know the exact price they're getting paid for it, but I hear complaints all over that it has dropped dramatically.

charlie, its a difficult time for all,thats for sure. Some of the people cutting trees getting small money per tonne are probably cutting trees 10 to 15 year old. Or most , need the trees to be 25 to 30 year old. So the wood is hard. Im not trying to say its good or bad. Just give good side and bad side. Ive seen rubber market terrible like now. Also ive seen palm oil so bad people pussh there palms up in a pile a nd burn them.

I do like the idea of palm for cheap labor cost. However i still like mixed farming.

Cheers Cobbler

[cobbler]

Thai guzzi . I think i worked out you are selling over 4000 kilo of cup per month. Being cut by 2 teams of 2 people each.Fluctuating of course. How many rai is that from?

Cheers Cobbler

[thaiguzzi]

Correctomondo Cobbler.

64 rai in total, about 4900 trees, of which i'd guestimate we have opened 4400. Still 500 to be opened, maybe 200-300 this year, the rest maybe another 2 years as rather scrawny "runts of the litter". Trees range from 12 years to 7 1/2 years in age.

[Dakling]

There is no way I would be getting into rubber these days. We have both cassava and rubber and at these prices the cassava nets more $/rai since you aren't paying staff year round. You also don't have to wait for the trees to mature, you get a crop at the end of the planting year. The trees we do have are 5 years old and my hope is that during the next 2 years prices will rebound but I have my doubts that we will see anything over 30 baht/kg anytime soon. Even if people stop planting new trees now there are more trees coming into production that have been planted over the last 5 years than there are trees coming out of production. It could be quiet a long stretch before we see prices recover. On good thing is that with natural rubber this low it now becomes cheaper than most butadiene sources so there should be some resistance to prices going even lower.

[cobbler]

There is no way I would be getting into rubber these days. We have both cassava and rubber and at these prices the cassava nets more $/rai since you aren't paying staff year round. You also don't have to wait for the trees to mature, you get a crop at the end of the planting year. The trees we do have are 5 years old and my hope is that during the next 2 years prices will rebound but I have my doubts that we will see anything over 30 baht/kg anytime soon. Even if people stop planting new trees now there are more trees coming into production that have been planted over the last 5 years than there are trees coming out of production. It could be quiet a long stretch before we see prices recover. On good thing is that with natural rubber this low it now becomes cheaper than most butadiene sources so there should be some resistance to prices going even lower.

Darkling i agree with you. We get more money from tua phuk yeow,long beens than rubber ,per square meter. We plant 10 meter x about 15 metre of long beens ,thet are ready for harvest in 45 days then we get 300 bart every second day,for the next 3 to 4 weeks. So 2 plots of 100x100 meters rotating would make you 3000 bart every second day,minus expences. Many crops make more money than rubber right now. This is why i like mixed farming. Good thing about rubber is its passive income. Bad thing is ,tie up your land for 7 years b4 start tapping. Although a crop can be planted and money recieved for 3 years till canopy closes,blocking sun. Then pakwan or prik hom can be planted but you need a lot of water to get harvest in dry season. As the yang sucks most of the water.. 1st year tapping get bugger all. 2nd year a bit more and so on. Begining and end of season is not much. 1 to 2 months closed with no income at all.so right now with prices like this. When you devide the money recieved in pocket per square metre,Hahaha,dont start. However when the trees are 25 to 30 year old they are worth good money if the trees have been taken care of. If you gass the trees ,foget selling them at the end. Gas destroys the tree inside. As for rubber prices coming back to 100 bart or over. I doubt for 10 years at least. Too many have now been planted in countries with cheaper labor than thailand. This is the reason why Malaysia went out of rubber and into palm oil years ago. Dont just jump into palm oil in issaan and anywhere north of bangkok basically. Not enough rain. Originally thailand had different crops for different areas. Because they new those crops were suited best for those areas. Its only recent governments within the last 15 ,20 years have been convincing farmers otherwise. Mainly to line there own pockets,not careing at all about if the farmer makes a profit or not.

Only people i have respect for to gain farming knowledge from in thai is your local kings project. These people are brilliant.Love them

Cheers Cobbler

[Issangeorge]

Cobbler, here are some pictures of the palm oil trees, is that funny looking stuff in between the branches the fruit?

[cobbler]

Cobbler, here are some pictures of the palm oil trees, is that funny looking stuff in between the branches the fruit?

Yes George thats it. Its a good sign seeing more than 1. Without seeing the trees in person i cant say for sure if the fruits are a good size for the age of the tree or not , but they look fine. 1 thing you need to think about is,how far to the point of sale?

Not every tree will give fruit , same as not every rubber will tree give yang also. George is the farm close to a mountain or mountain range ? This would make a big difference for me if i was looking at buying palm in your area,due to rainfall brought on by mountains . I know some gov offices in issaan area are pushing to get palm in issaan. Beware,palm is traditionally from south as they have the rain for palm. Try to see if you can get a trusted fanily member to talk to the current owner and see what is there plan after sale of this farm. If they are planning to do another type of farming ,dont touch the palm. However it could be a case they bought the land cheap ,put palm on it now can sell it at a good profit. Not trying to confuse you but its all food for thought.

Good luck with it all .

Cheers Cobbler

[cobbler]

Cobbler, here are some pictures of the palm oil trees, is that funny looking stuff in between the branches the fruit?

Yes George thats it. Its a good sign seeing more than 1. Without seeing the trees in person i cant say for sure if the fruits are a good size for the age of the tree or not , but they look fine. 1 thing you need to think about is,how far to the point of sale?

Not every tree will give fruit , same as not every rubber will tree give yang also. George is the farm close to a mountain or mountain range ? This would make a big difference for me if i was looking at buying palm in your area,due to rainfall brought on by mountains . I know some gov offices in issaan area are pushing to get palm in issaan. Beware,palm is traditionally from south as they have the rain for palm. Try to see if you can get a trusted fanily member to talk to the current owner and see what is there plan after sale of this farm. If they are planning to do another type of farming ,dont touch the palm. However it could be a case they bought the land cheap ,put palm on it now can sell it at a good profit. Not trying to confuse you but its all food for thought.

Good luck with it all .

Cheers Cobbler

[thaiguzzi]

I'm nowhere near an expert on palm, but up here in Isaan, if you can't get water on the land during the dry season, ie

a) tractors, trailers, water tanks, sprayers, labour

permanent irrigation fixtured,

i would'nt bother, you will have ;

1) poor trees

2) poor production output.

There are successful palm operation up here, but they are all next to rivers or lakes.

[thaiguzzi]

<deleted> edited my post. Again. I did not use an emoticon or whatever they are called. That was a "b" after an obvious "a". Jesus Christ.

[cobbler]

Absolutely agree thaiguzzi. I just was trying to be polite and not sound like a snob ,as we dont come from that area. I didnt like to sound like i was running down issaan. To be honest . Go to the kings project in your area and pick there brains.

Cheers Cobbler

[Issangeorge]

There is some confusion, the farm in question is not for sale, to the best of my knowledge the guy is doing quite well. He has a high mounted water tank, so he is getting water and wattering the trees. It seems to me rubber us also a southern crop, but you would never know it from the plantations around me. Anyway the original question was can palm trees stand wet feet as my wife has some vacant land that can get quite soggy in the wet season and I wondered if palm would grow on it.

[Charlie1]

Cobbler, here are some pictures of the palm oil trees, is that funny looking stuff in between the branches the fruit?

These "funny things" are the male seed stems (if this is good english), and not the fruit (bunch), which obviously is female.

Palm trees can produce as well the male as the female reproduction "things" on one and the same tree at the same time.

See picture of a tree on our plantation.

[CLW]

Just being a smart ass 555

These "things" are called inflorescence