Quakes Shake Thailand's North, More Floods Loom

[webfact]

Quakes shake north, more floods loom

By The Nation

Four mild earthquakes yesterday rattled Burma and could be felt in Chiang Rai - events described as "not normal" by the Mineral Resources Department.

Meanwhile, residents in many provinces were reminded by a warning of flashfloods and mudslides following heavy rains forecast throughout this week, in addition to other areas already affected.

The tremors felt in five districts in Chiang Rai were regarded as aftershocks of the March 25 earthquake, which measured 6.7 on the Richer scale, said Lertsin Raksasakulwong, a senior official in charge of earthquake detection and warning.

The first 3.9magnitude tremor was reported at 4.16am, the second 3.2 tremor at 4.24am, the third 4.6 tremor at 8.25am, and the last 4.0 tremor at 3.11pm. No details on epicentres or affected areas in Burma were forthcoming.

There was a 3.4 quake on Sunday, with its epicentre 24 kilometres away from Mai Sai district and 10km, underground, before the four quakes yesterday.

"The one quake last Sunday, and the four yesterday, have prompted a new way of analysing them all, because aftershocks after a major quake should have ended completely, and especially the quakes now occurring closer to Thailand," he said.

Quakes in Burma could trigger a movement along the Mae Chan faultline in Thailand, which could inflict severe damage if it exceeded 4.5 in magnitude and 10km in depth.

The department's statement also warned of mudslides in the northern provinces of Phayao, Lamphun and Lampang where there had been torrential rain and whose geographical structures and mountainous surroundings had contributed to greater risk of mudslides or landslides than others in the North.

In Lamphun, many homes along the Lee River were partially submerged and most farmland was inundated. In total, 740 homes in Lampang's Serm Ngarm district located near the Mae Tam reservoir were flooded, with 2,000 occupants affected and partly evacuated.

In the South's Ranong, a mudslide closed a lane of a major road while storms felled many trees, which briefly blocked another major road linking this province with Chumphon. Local authorities are advising residents of 84 villages in four Ranong districts to stay alert for floods.

-- The Nation 2011-05-11

[rakman]

Interesting.. According to the USGS, a 4.7 occurred way up north, a long way away from the previous quakes in Myanmar.

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Maps/region/Asia.php

Something else going on?

[folium]

What a bizarre piece of reporting.

Not sure if this is a case of

a. being "lost in translation"

b. sloppy journalism

or c. the "expert" is not very knowledgeable about their "expertise"

For instance

Headline: Quakes shake north

Really? OK, journalistic or more likely title-writer over-enthusiasm.

"Four mild earthquakes yesterday rattled Burma and could be felt in Chiang Rai - events described as "not normal" by the Mineral Resources Department."

Earthquakes are about as normal as they come in terms of natural phenomena. There are literally millions of quakes worldwide each year, most either unrecorded or only picked up by the increasing web of seismic sensors.

Not normal in the sense that quakes are not often experienced in Thailand. True to a degree, but seismic activity has little regard for international boundaries and Thailand is on the edge of a seismically active zone as India commits geological kamikaze.

"The one quake last Sunday, and the four yesterday, have prompted a new way of analysing them all, because aftershocks after a major quake should have ended completely, and especially the quakes now occurring closer to Thailand,"

Aftershocks can go on for weeks, months and even years in the case of >8 magnitude quakes (e.g 2004 Boxing Day). Just look at the USGS quake map for Japan, it's now 2 months and they will go on for a lot longer. The 6.7 Tachilek quake will again take a while to settle down. You don't shift around billions of tons of rock without a profound period of readjustment.

"Quakes in Burma could trigger a movement along the Mae Chan faultline in Thailand, which could inflict severe damage if it exceeded 4.5 in magnitude and 10km in depth." Classic bit of 2+1 = 76. Many journalists jumped on board the eruption story in Iceland last year as on 2 previous occasions activity at Ejafjallajokul was followed by activity in its bigger neighbour (and easier to pronounce for the journos) Katla. This time mother nature was not so obliging and trying to predict or second guess tectonic/seismic activity, sadly remains a fool's game. Easy to highlight where it might happen, a whole lot harder (actually impossible so far) to come up with the more important facts of When and What Magnitude.

and the one that I really love:

" the March 25 earthquake, which measured 6.7 on the Richer scale"

Only Thailand could come up with a Richer Scale, I suppose it wouldn't be on to muddle up your hi- and low-so types!

Also the Richter Scale has not been used since the late 1970's for recording the energy released by quakes as it has been replaced by the MMS (Moment Magnitude Scale). Anyone who refers to Richter for a major quake does not know what they are talking about (crap geography teachers and media types beware!)

So relax, ignore the scary headlines and breathless prose. Quakes are common natural phenomena, the vast majority of are of no consequence and unless you live in a seismic epicentre (Southern California, Japan, Aleutians etc) you have little to worry about. PS the world won't end on Dec 21 2012, I'll put money on it!

Edited May 11, 2011 by folium

[folium]

Just to underline the nonsense that gets peddled when it comes to earthquake prediction check out this link from the BBC:

My link

Not that I would ever accuse the Italians of being work shy but it does seem like a great excuse for a few days off work.

Perhaps my cynicism is misplaced and Rome will be destroyed by an earthquake today and the world will end on Dec 21 2012. Anyone want a wager on these events? Just for pride of course as we all know gambling is strictly illegal here.

Edited May 11, 2011 by folium

[rakman]

Just to underline the nonsense that gets peddled when it comes to earthquake prediction check out this link from the BBC:

My link

Not that I would ever accuse the Italians of being work shy but it does seem like a great excuse for a few days off work.

Perhaps my cynicism is misplaced and Rome will be destroyed by an earthquake today and the world will end on Dec 21 2012. Anyone want a wager on these events? Just for pride of course as we all know gambling is strictly illegal here.

He didn't get Rome correctly, if at all (urban myth?) but only about a thousand miles away in eastern Spain there was a 4.4 and a 5.2. Not bad, if the prediction is repeatable, but the predictor died so we might never know. I could chalk up the error to relativistic gravity missing in his calculations.

[folium]

Tens of thousands of quakes happen every day. Most are too small to be detected unless there are seismic monitors in place.

You can even narrow things down geographically. Pick Japan, Java, Aleutians, California (or any location along convergent or transform plate boundaries), and you can almost guarantee that there will be a least one quake >5 magnitude happening in the next 24 hours. Go on the USGS website and see how many there are in just the 4 named places above in the next 24 hours, ie between now and 10am Thai time tomorrow.

That's the easy bit. If I could sat exactly where, when and at what magnitude quakes are going to happen I would be a billionaire. There may well be none between now and tomorrow, which would just underline the fact that trying to forecast earthquakes is impossible as they are semi-random phenomena.

Just as a broken clock is right twice a day, if I keep on saying that an earthquake will strike, let's say San Francisco or Tokyo, ultimately I will be right, but it might be a long wait.