Will Pheu Thai Sink Or Swim With Jatuporn?

[webfact]

ANALYSIS

Will Pheu Thai sink or swim with Jatuporn?

By Somroutai Sapsomboon

Jintana Panyaarvudh

The Nation

Omitting the now jailed red-shirt leader from the party list could alienate a huge section of voters in upcoming election

The next five days will be long for Jatuporn Prompan. To Thaksin Shinawatra and anyone else who has to decide the election future of the red-shirt leader and hero, time will fly. Long dubbed a loose cannon of the opposition Pheu Thai Party, Jatuporn was put behind bars yesterday after the Criminal Court revoked his bail, and that means a potentially explosive dilemma for everyone concerned.

Thaksin has been thinking for a long time about whether he should keep red-shirt protesters as his mass support while his Pheu Thai Party campaigns in the upcoming election. He earlier tried to distance the party from the red shirts as he feared the movement might affect votes.

Now Jatuporn has been put in jail, Thaksin is at a crossroads.

If Jatuporn, who is still eligible to contest in the election despite being in prison, remains a candidate, it means Thaksin decided to keep the red shirts with his party.

As a red-shirt hero, Jatuporn gets huge support from red shirts. They could turn furious if Jatuporn is not among the 125 Pheu Thai party-list candidates.

The absence of Jatuporn from the list would affect the party's election results. It would be like butchering the donkey after it finished its job on the mill. Jatuporn has played a major role during the red-shirt demonstrations. Red shirts could reject Thaksin and Pheu Thai and choose to vote "No".

Most red shirts were outraged when they learned that Jatuporn and Nisit Sinthuprai had had their bail revoked due to a speech on April 10 that was deemed by the authorities as defamatory to the monarchy.

Their responses were mixed, however, on what repercussions it would have on the red-shirt movement and the Pheu Thai Party. Some believed it would make red shirts even more determined to fight against what they perceive as injustice, while others see the detention as weakening the movement and increasing fear of making certain political speeches.

"Every single pain will be transformed into power," declared red-shirt leader Natthawut Saikua.

Another leader, Korkaew Pikulthong, thought it could rally more people to vote for Pheu Thai and make the red shirts more resolved.

"There will be more people coming out on May 19," said Korkaew, referring to the first anniversary of the end of the bloody crackdown in Bangkok. "And more may vote for the Pheu Thai Party."

Although the red shirts will try to turn the pain into power, the revocation of bail for their hero could strengthen disloyalty accusations against the red shirts and Pheu Thai. Red shirts would be forced to be more cautious in their next rallies because if any violence takes place the election might never happen. That could be a negative for the Pheu Thai Party as well. If the election isn't held, how they can bring Thaksin home?

Moreover, voters who are so far undecided could turn against Pheu Thai following the accusations.

The Pheu Thai Party is expected to announce its party-list candidates on Monday. The timing is interesting. The first day of party-list registration will be on May 19, the same day the red shirts will hold a one-year commemoration of the Bangkok crackdown. On the day, the reds might be happy if Jatuporn was on the party list - or sad if he was dumped from the party.

With long government holidays, Jatuporn will have to stay in jail for five days (May 13-17) before possibly getting bail again. His lawyer submitted another bail request yesterday, but it was rejected by the court. Jatuporn can request bail again, but his freedom could return anyway when the first parliamentary session starts on August 2, the date expected by the Election Commission.

At the end of the day, Thaksin would never leave Jatuporn behind bars alone, but would rather embrace him as one of the main MP candidates under the Pheu Thai banner in the upcoming election.

-- The Nation 2011-05-13

[virtualtraveller]

Who are you kidding, Jatuporn will be richly rewarded for his role in the April protests and all his activities as a free man since. Thaksin wouldn't be so silly as to stab his primary supporters in the back, at a crucial time when loyalties can be bought over by the opposition. Rapid promotion in politics is one reason Jatuporn put himself up for this dirty job. In order to avoid him sitting in jail to the disgust of the red supporters Peua Thai absolutely must put him high up the party list to secure him an MP seat and thus immunity.

Seeing how the yellows turned on the Democrats, I don't think Thaksin would want the same from a more dangerous UDD, besides his talk of distancing PT from the UDD is rubbish, they need each other deeply, he used them to the hilt last year.

The timing of this is unfortunate for the government since it looks (to all the reds anyway) that the system is trying to silence their candidates, but the truth is, the DSI have been trying to nail Jatuporn for months and he's been rubbing shit in their faces with his immunity, and I think the courts have been quite fair in their repeated dismissing of the case against bail revocation. He had this coming, most observers will concur on that.

Of course, Jatuporn is loving every minute of his little excursion to jail knowing he will soon be free and able to get political mileage out of it, disgusting!

[timekeeper]

Who are you kidding, Jatuporn will be richly rewarded for his role in the April protests and all his activities as a free man since. Thaksin wouldn't be so silly as to stab his primary supporters in the back, at a crucial time when loyalties can be bought over by the opposition. Rapid promotion in politics is one reason Jatuporn put himself up for this dirty job. In order to avoid him sitting in jail to the disgust of the red supporters Peua Thai absolutely must put him high up the party list to secure him an MP seat and thus immunity.

Seeing how the yellows turned on the Democrats, I don't think Thaksin would want the same from a more dangerous UDD, besides his talk of distancing PT from the UDD is rubbish, they need each other deeply, he used them to the hilt last year.

The timing of this is unfortunate for the government since it looks (to all the reds anyway) that the system is trying to silence their candidates, but the truth is, the DSI have been trying to nail Jatuporn for months and he's been rubbing shit in their faces with his immunity, and I think the courts have been quite fair in their repeated dismissing of the case against bail revocation. He had this coming, most observers will concur on that.

Of course, Jatuporn is loving every minute of his little excursion to jail knowing he will soon be free and able to get political mileage out of it, disgusting!

wasn't he richly rewarded already?

do i recall when they froze his bank account and assessed his assets he had two sprawling estates, multiple imported cars and about 25 million in the bank?

so much for the downtrodden rural poor............

Edited May 13, 2011 by timekeeper

[ianf]

Who are you kidding, Jatuporn will be richly rewarded for his role in the April protests and all his activities as a free man since. Thaksin wouldn't be so silly as to stab his primary supporters in the back, at a crucial time when loyalties can be bought over by the opposition. Rapid promotion in politics is one reason Jatuporn put himself up for this dirty job. In order to avoid him sitting in jail to the disgust of the red supporters Peua Thai absolutely must put him high up the party list to secure him an MP seat and thus immunity.

Seeing how the yellows turned on the Democrats, I don't think Thaksin would want the same from a more dangerous UDD, besides his talk of distancing PT from the UDD is rubbish, they need each other deeply, he used them to the hilt last year.

The timing of this is unfortunate for the government since it looks (to all the reds anyway) that the system is trying to silence their candidates, but the truth is, the DSI have been trying to nail Jatuporn for months and he's been rubbing shit in their faces with his immunity, and I think the courts have been quite fair in their repeated dismissing of the case against bail revocation. He had this coming, most observers will concur on that.

Of course, Jatuporn is loving every minute of his little excursion to jail knowing he will soon be free and able to get political mileage out of it, disgusting!

Prison or not, what other civilised country would put up with a monkey like Jatuporn? That the guy is not quite sane is pretty obvious but for him to have the support of the masses just says so much about Thailand and it's ridiculous attitudes to so many things. Its bad enough that they worship a fascist leader - a man so incredibly and transparently dishonest that it beggars belief that anyone could do anything but spit on him. God help Thailand!

(posted by Ernesto)

Edited May 13, 2011 by ianf

[LindsayBKK]

Go to Jail, go directly to Jail , do not pass Go!

Can these Thai Newspapers just report the news instead of giving their own biased opinion?

Especially Thailand where they're either red or yellow.

TNN - The good

CH3 - The Bad

thaipbs - The Ugly

What is your Thai Newspaper choice?

The Good?

The Bad?

The Ugly?

Edited May 13, 2011 by LindsayBKK

[animatic]

Well winning a party list spot and the election doesn't grant immunity for something he is already convicted of does it? Nope. I somehow doubt it also stops ongoing functional prosecutions dead in their tracks either.

So the pretty clearly open and shut case for his LM on April 10th may move expeditiously to court, prior to the election being decided. Granted his lawyers will try and stall, but it is up to the courts toruel when they decide to not when Jatuporns lawyers says to.

And with his history of ignoring bail agreements, the likelihood of his getting out on bail, pending appeal after a conviction is pretty small too. He has really painted himself into a deep fudgy dark hole here.

Edited May 13, 2011 by animatic

[IAMSOBAD]

SINK

[ballpoint]

It would be like butchering the donkey after it finished its job on the mill.

No doubt the donkey will live to lie another day though.