Thaksin Sends His Beloved Sister Yingluck On A Treacherous Journey

[webfact]

STOPPAGE TIME

Thaksin sends his beloved sister on a treacherous journey

By Tulsathit Taptim

A "smart move" isn't necessarily a good one.

Whether Yingluck Shinawatra falls into that analysis will not be decided by the future "political success" of making her the Pheu Thai Party's prime ministerial candidate. For throwing her into politics to be deemed a "good move", she must be able to remain who she is six months or a year from now.

She only took the first step in her new journey on Monday but that was enough to pass the point of no return. A "Nang Talung heroine" (Thai shadow puppet), as she is to Suthep Thaugsuban, or "our female white knight" to the red shirts, or "my clone" as Thaksin Shinawatra proudly called her, Yingluck has already become someone she never meant to be. Whether she's liking it is fast becoming a non-issue. What she stands to gain or lose as a person is more relevant.

So far, it seems to be a smart move, all right. At least the Pheu Thai Party is holding together and the Democrats are lookng a bit nervous. Mingkwan Saengsuwan has agreed to stay with the opposition party and Snoh Thienthong has returned under the wing of Yingluck's big brother, whom he once described as Thailand's most crooked and dangerous man. A feared exodus from the Pheu Thai Party has not materialised so far and "the first female prime minister of Thailand" is an intriguing theme for this election campaign.

The "nominee" issue will hound her from Day One. Thaksin, however, has had two choices: He could choose someone else to be labelled his nominee, or he could choose to proudly present his dearest sister as his clone. If former police chief Pracha Promnok or Mingkwan was going to be branded his proxy anyhow, why not go for someone you can really trust?

Both men are either tainted or unmarketable goods. Pracha is an old-timer whose nomination as prime minister was swept aside by the rise of Abhisit Vejjajiva in late 2008. He left the force with a fairly decent image but nothing about him was extraordinary. In his last, make-or-break push, Thaksin has decided that the Pheu Thai campaign requires something out of the ordinary.

Mingkwan has not only failed to stir excitement, but also has brought questions about loyalty upon himself. The two men represent problems plaguing Thaksin's available options - trusted candidates are not up to it and those who possibly are up to it cannot be totally trusted. To offer the job to an attractive outsider, meanwhile, accompanied the need to convince him that the political fates of Samak Sundaravej and Somchai Wongsawat will not be repeated.

That left him with Yingluck. The catch is that Pracha or Mingkwan or Chavalit Yongchaiyudh could go down in flames and Thaksin wouldn't care much. Yingluck has been largely shielded from the nasty consequences of her brother's political troubles because he cared. He most likely still does, but either the family's "destiny" is overpowering, or he thinks it is. Whatever the reason, she stepped on his treacherous path on Monday.

Yingluck is 43. That age can make Abhisit look old, yet it's what the Democrats should be least worried about. They have dared her to a public debate with him, apparently in a bid to nullify claims of "equal qualifications". That is assuming that a public debate can sway Thai voters. While the truth is that Abhisit could beat her 10 times at the podium, it would still be irrelevant to the election result. Thailand is too divided for eloquence to dictate or change anything.

Yingluck will be immune to Abhisit as well as a potential revolt in Pheu Thai. While Thailand is unaccustomed to the gender issue in political contests, she should have some advantage being a young woman gunning for the top office. And yes, she is a Shinawatra, but from strategic points of view it would rather be her than Thaksin's wife Pojaman or his other sisters Yaowapha and Yaowares. Yingluck is obviously a better choice, but her comfort zone will not be great, and it could shrink very fast.

Thaksin may not need Yingluck to win this election; Mingkwan or party leader Yongyuth Wichaidit might prove adequate to the task. But, already, her stabilising effect is being felt in Pheu Thai. The first priority has been nearly accomplished, and that was to prevent the opposition camp from turning into a rat ship. This could be a masterstroke, politically.

The real story, though, will begin after July 3. While Yingluck's agreement to accept the party list nomination may have defined her as a sister, what is required of her if she becomes the next prime minister will define Thaksin as a big brother. He has set her up for a journey, and it's he who will determine where it ends.

-- The Nation 2011-05-18

[virtualtraveller]

Look at how this has all transpired, it wouldn't be too difficult for a 'third hand' to persuade the Mingwan faction to defect or break loose from Thaksin Inc after the election - should an 'opportunity' present itself. Reds might scream blue murder - army involvement, disloyalty or whatever, but frankly, if I was Mingwan guzumped by a political lightweight like this I'd also be inclined to go independent, just like Peau Pandin and BumjaiThai factions.

There's a good reason why the 'system' seems to be against Thaksin.

[dominique355]

Yingluck's job is actually very simple: Win the election, form a government with Yingluck as PM, pass a decree to give her clone brother amnesty so he can return. Then she can step down and let her clone take over. Mission accomplished.

[Misterwhisper]

Yingluck's job is actually very simple: Win the election, form a government with Yingluck as PM, pass a decree to give her clone brother amnesty so he can return. Then she can step down and let her clone take over. Mission accomplished.

Bingo! Correct in all points. What a sad scenario, isn't it?

[scorecard]

Part quote from main article:

"Thaksin may not need Yingluck to win this election; Mingkwan or party leader Yongyuth Wichaidit might prove adequate to the task. But, already, her stabilising effect is being felt in Pheu Thai. The first priority has been nearly accomplished, and that was to prevent the opposition camp from turning into a rat ship. This could be a masterstroke, politically."

Could be true, and it could also be true that right now she simply ia a novelty, but how quickly will the novelty remain in regard to the thinking and desires of the rank and file of pt, and more importantly those pt members who have concerns about their place at the feeding trough.

And another twist could be that the rank and file are quiet right now because they have been strongly ordered to be quiet by the paymaster, but again how long will they put up with being quiet when they don't have answers / have doubts about their position at the feeding trough.

[jdinasia]

Didn't Thaksin once say ----- "I should have listened to my Family and not entered politics"? ....... He sure doesn't seem to mind throwing his sister under the bus for his personal benefit

[Thaddeus]

Didn't Thaksin once say ----- "I should have listened to my Family and not entered politics"? ....... He sure doesn't seem to mind throwing his sister under the bus for his personal benefit

Especially when he is driving the bus.

[richard10365]

Perhaps the sister will like the power and decide to arrest Thaskin if he returns.

[MaiChai]

Yingluck's job is actually very simple: Win the election, form a government with Yingluck as PM, pass a decree to give her clone brother amnesty so he can return. Then she can step down and let her clone take over. Mission accomplished.

Bingo! Correct in all points. What a sad scenario, isn't it?

Unfortunatly, very few plans in Thailand work out or follow the plan. I have been here a long time and very few things can be predicted. This one for certain. In fact, better not have a plan. I guess that is why most Thais don't or can't plan ahead?

I would also say there is alot at stake here, and too many stake holders! This is going to be a tough and not very clean election for sure. But the military always wins, so if the outcome is not to their liking there will be another coup.

Very few of the people on TV remember or were here and saw what happened with Taksin before; the country was under his iron grip and everyone feared to say anything against him (including the press). I remember it very well. I and many people were very happy what happened with the coup; call it a return to normalcy. Undemocratic yes, but removal of a tyrant was needed. It was for the greater good.

Edited May 18, 2011 by MaiChai

[siampolee]

The situation reminds me of a famous Western fairy tale

[TiTLOS]

The situation reminds me of a famous Western fairy tale

"Mr Angry Apple - and his amazing balancing feats"

I havent heard of that tale.

Edited May 18, 2011 by TiTLOS

[ratcatcher]

Yingluck's job is actually very simple: Win the election, form a government with Yingluck as PM, pass a decree to give her clone brother amnesty so he can return. Then she can step down and let her clone take over. Mission accomplished.

I wonder if it is really as simple as ABC?

Would she really have the power to "pass a decree" and just wave her magic wand and Mr.T is absolved of any guilt or punishment?

Surely something as significant as this would have to go through many channels and end up in front of someone at a hospital for approval or signature. Plus there are other criminal charges pending against the poor chap.

Perhaps some of the board experts in these delicate affairs could comment.

[tuky]

I can't believe there is a possibility that Thailand's next leader could be a convicted felon on the run by proxy.

If that happens then I fear there is no hope for the nation.

As with MaiChai, I was also in Thailand from start to end of Thaksin's binge, I just wish there was a way for the Thai people to open their eyes, I wish the average Thai could learn what it was like to live under Suharto, Marcos, how it was only religion that made Mahathir appear to be the glue, that the size of Singapore was the reason the PPP and Lee Kwan Yew achieved what they did (which was and still is remarkable but very different to Thailand).

I have a dread that Thaksin will win, his ulterior motive will be achieved (megalomania with a side dish of Revered status) and Thailand will fall into further decay/decline that will take decades to surface from.

[Buchholz]

Yingluck's job is actually very simple: Win the election, form a government with Yingluck as PM, pass a decree to give her clone brother amnesty so he can return. Then she can step down and let her clone take over. Mission accomplished.

I wonder if it is really as simple as ABC?

Would she really have the power to "pass a decree" and just wave her magic wand and Mr.T is absolved of any guilt or punishment?

Surely something as significant as this would have to go through many channels and end up in front of someone at a hospital for approval or signature. Plus there are other criminal charges pending against the poor chap.

Perhaps some of the board experts in these delicate affairs could comment.

It was reported today that Chalerm is already at work on the Executive Decree, but like you, I'm unsure of its legality....

The other paper this morning is reporting on Pheu Thai's plan to issue a general amnesty to all politicians AND political groups if it wins the election.

Chalerm is already drafting a proposed executive decree.

[rubl]

Yingluck's excuse for not debating Abhisit, on the grounds she just entered politics, it a bit funny for someone who's just 'elected' on the number one spot on the party list of PTP and slated to become PM if PTP get's big enough.

If somehow k. Thaksin's beloved sister doesn't get the vote of consent from the Thai voters in sufficient quantity, will she stay on as MP leading the PTP in opposition for the coming four years ? Will she lead censure debates, or leave that type of dirty work to the more experienced in 'her' party ?

[ginjag]

Look at how this has all transpired, it wouldn't be too difficult for a 'third hand' to persuade the Mingwan faction to defect or break loose from Thaksin Inc after the election - should an 'opportunity' present itself. Reds might scream blue murder - army involvement, disloyalty or whatever, but frankly, if I was Mingwan guzumped by a political lightweight like this I'd also be inclined to go independent, just like Peau Pandin and BumjaiThai factions.

There's a good reason why the 'system' seems to be against Thaksin.

In the latest 30 topics, how many are related to Thaksin-Lingyuk-and her/his party-red shirt related topics, I know I can switch off if I dislike the subject. I understand it's topical........BUT there is a limit to some of these red topics. Nearly every other Topic is related to Thaksin and family and party--answer on any of them and you wouldn't be off topic... Lets have a bit of fresh stuff thrown at us please

[ginjag]

Look at how this has all transpired, it wouldn't be too difficult for a 'third hand' to persuade the Mingwan faction to defect or break loose from Thaksin Inc after the election - should an 'opportunity' present itself. Reds might scream blue murder - army involvement, disloyalty or whatever, but frankly, if I was Mingwan guzumped by a political lightweight like this I'd also be inclined to go independent, just like Peau Pandin and BumjaiThai factions.

There's a good reason why the 'system' seems to be against Thaksin.

In the latest 30 topics, how many are related to Thaksin-Lingyuk-and her/his party-red shirt related topics, I know I can switch off if I dislike the subject. I understand it's topical........BUT there is a limit to some of these red topics. Nearly every other Topic is related to Thaksin and family and party--answer on any of them and you wouldn't be off topic... Lets have a bit of fresh stuff thrown at us please

[Buchholz]

Yingluck's excuse for not debating Abhisit, on the grounds she just entered politics, it a bit funny for someone who's just 'elected' on the number one spot on the party list of PTP and slated to become PM if PTP get's big enough.

current reason from the Debate thread... "No time...I'm busy... maybe later"

[bristolgeoff]

he must have pulled the string in her back to do something

[Macmundi]

She's gonna be hammered!!

[animatic]

Look at how this has all transpired, it wouldn't be too difficult for a 'third hand' to persuade the Mingwan faction to defect or break loose from Thaksin Inc after the election - should an 'opportunity' present itself. Reds might scream blue murder - army involvement, disloyalty or whatever, but frankly, if I was Mingwan guzumped by a political lightweight like this I'd also be inclined to go independent, just like Peau Pandin and BumjaiThai factions.

There's a good reason why the 'system' seems to be against Thaksin.

Or simply make offers potential PTP partners can't refuse, to NOT vote for the PPT candidates. If PTP doesn't have 50%+ to be SURE that 251 MPs vote for their #1 candidate, then they are not getting the PM chair no matter how much the gripe.

The more evenly PTP comes out with Dems more likely they will not get it. The typical 30-35% split for each means NEITHER faction has the will of the people as a mandate, the mandate remains with that 65% that did NOT vote for EITHER large party.. Who ever gets the best and fastest 14% additionaL MPs to vote for them wins.

So it certainly is treacherous, because if she does NOT draw a real majority, she will be thrust fukl force into the maelstrom of high powered horse-trading that the Thai political system seems to INSIST it must maintain. Is she really prepared to play the hardball needed, or relay Thaksins decisions fast enough to get it done in the few days needed to cobble together secure power? By secure I also mean docile enough to let them bring back Thaksin through dragging their partners MPs through the mud big time to do it. Will they have a coalition that has no deal breaker?

Treacherous + Thai Politics; heck they shoot each other every election, doesn't get more treacherous than that.

Most likely post election Mingkwan will have cards to play.

Edited May 18, 2011 by animatic

[geriatrickid]

Ahh, morning always brings a ray of sunshine and this article is certainly a bright and lucid commentary. Yingluck may surprise everyone and demonstrate an individual strength and integrity. Women with business experience tend to have a good grasp of reality.

I don't know if anyone has been keeping abreast of world politics, but one thing should be understood: Never underestimate an electorate's desire for change, even change that is unknown. 3 examples come to mind: The 2010 thumping sitting US Congress incumbents received was savage. Recently, in the UK, the Liberal Democrats were brutally punished in local elections losing almost half of their councillors. And in Canada, the socialist NDP tripled its seat total and in the process swept almost all of the seats in a province that had historically elected separtist french members of Parliament. In some cases, unilingual anglophones that had never even set foot in a french riding to campaign were elected. It was an unexpected blowout The point here, is that if voters are fed up and thirst for a change, they will embrace the person and party that promises the change, even if the promises are ridiculous and even if the person running is unqualified.

The Thai electorate may demonstrate a voting behaviour just like other electorates in this period of anger and discont and shock all of the "experts".

Edited May 19, 2011 by geriatrickid

[whybother]

Ahh, morning always brings a ray of sunshine and this article is certainly a bright and lucid commentary. Yingluck may surprise everyone and demonstrate an individual strength and integrity. Women with business experience tend to have a good grasp of reality.

I don't know if anyone has been keeping abreast of world politics, but one thing should be understood: Never underestimate an electorate's desire for change, even change that is unknown. 3 examples come to mind: The 2010 thumping sitting US Congress incumbents received was savage. Recently, in the UK, the Liberal Democrats were brutally punished in local elections losing almost half of their councillors. And in Canada, the socialist NDP tripled its seat total and in the process swept almost all of the seats in a province that had historically elected separtist french members of Parliament. In some cases, unilingual anglophones that had never even set foot in a french riding to campaign were elected. It was an unexpected blowout The point here, is that if voters are fed up and thirst for a change, they will embrace the person and party that promises the change, even if the promises are ridiculous and even if the person running is unqualified.

The Thai electorate may demonstrate a voting behaviour just like other electorates in this period of anger and discont and shock all of the "experts".

Is voting for Yingluck (and the PTP) voting for change, or just taking a step back to 2001-2006?