Found - The (unhidden) Agenda

[Indo-Siam]

Motivated by a client paying the www.bangkokstaff.com divsion of my company to perform some background research, I recently had the opportunity to review a quite informative (and lengthy) document called "The Ninth Annual Economic and Social Develpopment Plan, 2002-2006", published by the Thai National Economic and Social Development Board (see NESDB Website).

It is interesting to note that Thailand has a "business plan" for its national development - and based on my obeservations (and notwithastanding all the lowlives grumbling about how bad everything is going), Thailand appears to me to be leaving its neighbors in the dust, and succeeding quite brilliantly at lifting itself by its own bootstraps. Meaning - I think they have a pretty solid business plan - and a fairly astute businessman running the show as national CEO.

Much of the document is boring (as are most prospectuses and busines plans), but there are some very interesting sections. There is a specific, targetted plan for tourism - and (sorry punters) sex-tourists are definitely not on the invitation lists. They outline and decribe very specifically the high-value, long-stay tourists they are seeking to attract. The section on technology development was also fairly interesting, as was the section on educational targets.

If anyone thinks that events in Thailand - at macro level - are simply playing out by chance - I suggest you get your hands on a copy of this report. It appears to me that reality is playing out quite in line with this gameplan - and thus looking at its objectives for 2006 may be a fairly good way to foretell the shape of things to come.

Examples of Plan programs that I have seen unfold include creation of the social security system (Social Fund), the campaign against illegal drugs, the creation of the 30 baht health scheme, and the privatization of previously state-run organizations.

One tip - this document has nothing to say about foreigners inside Thailand - except for tourists, and perhaps foreign business investment. Long-stay foreigners are of no interest to the government - they can all leave tomorrow, as they are not even mentioned in the business plan.

Happy Holidays!

Indo-Siam

[dr_Pat_Pong]

The long termers are worth absolutely nothing to Thailand. Little wonder that an economic forecast doesn't take their contribution into account.

[Felt 35]

Thanks Dr. Patpong.

You said it: The long termers are worth absolutely nothing to Thailand.

Something to think about in the Holiday Season!!

Merry Christmas & "Prosperous New Year"

[Jeepz]

The long termers are worth absolutely nothing to Thailand. Little wonder that an economic forecast doesn't take their contribution into account.

I am a bit surprised at that remark, Dr Pat Pong. Why do you feel that long stay foreigners are valueless to Thailand?

Jeepz

[Nemesis]

Offensive racist post removed

Edited December 27, 2003 by dr_Pat_Pong

[Nemesis]

Offensive post removed.

Edited December 27, 2003 by dr_Pat_Pong

[Nemesis]

Removed offensive posting

Edited December 27, 2003 by dr_Pat_Pong

[dr_Pat_Pong]

Nemesis' anti Thai sentiments are removed by me, as will Nemesis be for any repeats of this behaviour.

[plachon]

Unhelpful anti Government sentiment removed.

[dr_Pat_Pong]

Why does this topic bring out the worst in people ? Mr Plachon is not as bad as Nemesis, nevertheless his comments are removed.

[plachon]

Why does this topic bring out the worst in people ? Mr Plachon is not as bad as Nemesis, nevertheless his comments are removed.

Honestly Dr PP, that was absolutely mild and innoffensive, compared to past postings by myself and dozens of other posters! Talk about inconsistency! I can see that the snippers are becoming more draconian by the day on this forum, perhaps reflecting changes at national and even international level. Rather sad and facile, but your perogative mate. please state for the record and fairness though, that my posting could in no way be construed as racist.

[dr_Pat_Pong]

I said anti-goverment...not racist. Be fair...we'd like to keep a popular website. Anti government sentiment from a senior member won't help that aim.

[Khun ?]

To much government, not enough government.

There sure is alot of foreigners who try to stay in a place that gets nothing right.

No wonder why the government tries to appease the tourist and sets limits for long stay to a reasonable amount to be beneficial. Foreigners need to expect

the same living as they would at home form themselves not the host . Buy houses, cars and use stores and

services on the same manner as in their own country. I think they are being a fair host and we need to look at ourselves a bit more. I think the Thai government has

come a long way from the past. Asia itself is creating more than most of us give it credit for. Times are a changing. Expect in the future in order to be able to retire in Thailand to require similar to back home. Thailand is looking to host normal retirees from devolped countries not everyone looking for a bargain. You can have your cake and eat it too, but not at rock bottom peasant prices as of past years. Welcome to the new century. Leave your change at home and come with big paper denominations.

We all still love the place. What hurts more, living with it or without it?

[Jeepz]

I had a bit of confusion between Indio-Siam's use of "long-stay foreigners" and Dr Pat Pong's "long termers" initially. Dr Pat Pong clarified the term as basically the border walkers, people that don't have much in financial assests and live pretty much hand to mouth.

Indo-Siam's post however left me with the feeling that the group meant all long term foreigners, except for one's with business investments here. So even if expats that meet more stringent requirements concerning financial viability, far beyond what may be necessary to actually live comfortably here now, they are still not a factor in the current view of the government.

The concern I have is the financial investment that may be required down the road. While a monthly income of 65,000 baht isn't a particular problem, some have advised that a required deposit of 800,000 baht may become 1,500,000 baht. And yes, I know that it says a mix of deposit and monthly income will suffice, but I have heard others say that only the deposited funds will have significance down the road. Obviously we don't know for sure and it is all speculation at this point.

But if a large, non-performing deposit (sort of a "bond" of assurance) is required from prospective expats to reside "long stay" in Thailand, I think that will effectively dampen enthusiasm for even "qualified" applicants for "long stay" visa's in Thailand.

Jeepz

[dr_Pat_Pong]

Good....poverty packers go home.

[samran]

Had a quick squiz at Ch 7, "Competitiveness and Capability Enhancement Strategy". As I have worked on documents that are similar to this (although not this one) for the RTG, I think I can comment.

One has to remember that the NESDB, while a government agency, has no real sway over government policy where it matters (either by law or in practice), that is, amongst the inner circle of advisors, ministers and cabinet. This is where real policy is developed, sometimes on the run, mostly without the help of the civil service.

In essence these national "plans" are a political and PR documents, to show outsiders that Thailand has a 'plan' so to speak. Whether or not it sticks to it is a different matter.

The RTG at various levels does this all the time. I have found myself at different times putting together presentations that have been pure fiction for outside investors or multilateral institutions. This is not necessarily a criticism in itself. After all, all governments around the world do this and is part of the face that it has to put on.

What is disappointing though is that some much needed economic policy reform in Thailand, is little more than shabbily hidden measures to help certain business interests. The playing field while now technically open, is seriously tilted in a certain direction.

Take for instance the recent decision to deregulate the airline industry in Thailand. While long overdue, it coincidently didn't happen till certain parties wanted to open a competitor to THAI Air. So while transport in Thailand is now certainly going to become more competitive, certain parties will have a head start into cashing in on the profit.

Nor have we seen effective de-regulation of the Telecoms industry. Again, this is partly to do with certain business interests, but also to do with turf wars between CAT and TOT and how they divvy up their revenues. All this is to the detriment of the Thai consumer through the monopolistic pricing that gouges their wallets. So while I can call the UK from Australia for the equivalent of 1 baht per minute, it costs me 24 baht per minute to call either of those countries (legally) from Bangkok. While I can sometimes afford this, God knows how the thousands of Thais who have relatives living and working overseas as labourers can afford to call their relatives.

I could go on... My main point to make here is that a lot of what we see is glossy PR dressed up as serious policy. If implemented properly, then maybe it would be beneficial to the nation. Unfortunately there aren't enough voices in Thai society who are able or willing to state these things out in the open (me included unfortunately!).

[Jeepz]

Uhmm, okay, gotcha. No poverty allowed. Pay your way or else. That really wasn't the point of my post. Apparently I am not being clear or I muddled my point.

But I don't want to belabor it either. So I fold.

Jeepz

[Khun ?]

They want us as residents to help build a stable stock market and economy and

not be a source for which the poor villiage people see us as hitting the lottery

even though it is much appreciated by many in the lower levels of society.

A good percentage of dealings now are foreigner to foreigner with no involvement

from locals. Maybe they see that requiring larger and more stable incomes for residents will not be the type that are in the foreigner to foreigner business deals

and people with larger incomes as residents do not end up in the provinces spending less money. I guess the days of us starting a small business serving

other foreigners may become less in the longer term outlook for foreign residents. They want us in big business not small stuff to supplemt our pensions.

Jeepz

if they did move it up to the 1.5 mil for foreign residents, this may be a way to target the people that will buy new houses, apartments and vehicles rather than used stuff. The lower cost places will become the local low income field instead of us small fry foreigners trading between each other. I am sure they are making attempts to get us out of this market other than if we are part time vacationers

buying cheaper places for short term stays. One thing the game plan is still taking form. With the better economy today there must be more middle class thais getting into the lower income realestate markets that would not like to compete against us foreigners. The strong and determined will survive either way.

[parryhandy]

Had a quick squiz at Ch 7, "Competitiveness and Capability Enhancement Strategy". As I have worked on documents that are similar to this (although not this one) for the RTG, I think I can comment.

One has to remember that the NESDB, while a government agency, has no real sway over government policy where it matters (either by law or in practice), that is, amongst the inner circle of advisors, ministers and cabinet. This is where real policy is developed, sometimes on the run, mostly without the help of the civil service. 

In essence these national "plans" are a political and PR documents, to show outsiders that Thailand has a 'plan' so to speak. Whether or not it sticks to it is a different matter.

The RTG at various levels does this all the time. I have found myself at different times putting together presentations that have been pure fiction for outside investors or multilateral institutions. This is not necessarily a criticism in itself. After all, all governments around the world do this and is part of the face that it has to put on.

What is disappointing though is that some much needed economic policy reform in Thailand, is little more than shabbily hidden measures to help certain business interests. The playing field while now technically open, is seriously tilted in a certain direction.

Take for instance the recent decision to deregulate the airline industry in Thailand. While long overdue, it coincidently didn't happen till certain parties wanted to open a competitor to THAI Air. So while transport in Thailand is now certainly going to become more competitive, certain parties will have a head start into cashing in on the profit.

Nor have we seen effective de-regulation of the Telecoms industry. Again, this is partly to do with certain business interests, but also to do with turf wars between CAT and TOT and how they divvy up their revenues. All this is to the detriment of the Thai consumer through the monopolistic pricing that gouges their wallets. So while I can call the UK from Australia for the equivalent of 1 baht per minute, it costs me 24 baht per minute to call either of those countries (legally) from Bangkok. While I can sometimes afford this, God knows how the thousands of Thais who have relatives living and working overseas as labourers can afford to call their relatives. 

I could go on... My main point to make here is that a lot of what we see is glossy PR dressed up as serious policy. If implemented properly, then maybe it would be beneficial to the nation. Unfortunately there aren't enough voices in Thai society who are able or willing to state these things out in the open (me included unfortunately!).

Very insightful and worded post.Totally agree but as a layman id have called it total vested interest politics and business.Your words "seriously titlted" i would describe as a massive understatement. One day these people will realise that true "wealth" at a national level is created by widespread quality education, level playing fields and competition, whereas at the moment he/she who makes the rules gets the gold.Hopefully he/she one day will have enough gold to satisfy themseleves that they might bother to implement seriously imposed laws and reforms.

[samran]

One day these people will realise that true "wealth" at a national level is created by widespread quality education, level playing fields and competition, whereas at the moment he/she who makes the rules gets the gold.

The problem is that these people do realise these things and it is not in their interests to level the playing field, unless it is levelled in their own direction of course.

When this this government was elected there was the hope that because certain parties were rich enough there wouldn't be any need to play the traditional self interested political games. Unfortunately, all that has happened is that the game has become more sophisticated, that is marrying otherwise good policy with vested business interests.

[Khun ?]

Non performing thought.

[DaveYo]

I agree with Dr. PP. Long termers in Thailand create stability to the country. Again and this is been quite often mentioned numerous times Thailand depends on the tourist industry for their income. Everything they do is geared towards tourists like it or not. Yes long term stayers are in the back ground, because some of them provide jobs to their people.

I still say the reason for such attraction to Thailand is the reputation that the outsiders see Thailand being... SCOTW. I abbreviated it. Many come down just for the women or gays etc. Nothing else.

Take that away, I can bet you the tourist industry will drop like a bomb.

Daveyoti

[Guest IT Manager]

It may be just me, but PM me what SCOTW is... obviously don't put it here.

Another well worded, thoroughly researched post Daveyo and thanks a lot for it.. I think.

[maerim]

With all the doubt and uncertainty that is surrounding the expatriat community here in Thailand perhaps a new base might be called for.

Does anyone here know much about North Korea?

From what I read the roads are pretty much empty save for the odd nuclear misssile launcher and the Dear Leaders motorcade.

What's the exchange rate? Could always buy food here and swap it for accomodation there.

[parryhandy]

It may be just me, but PM me what SCOTW is... obviously don't put it here.

Another well worded, thoroughly researched post Daveyo and thanks a lot for it.. I think.

im guessing but SCOTW = sex capital of the world. as for the rest of daves post ?????????????

[Bob Chittie]

Why does this topic bring out the worst in people ? Mr Plachon is not as bad as Nemesis, nevertheless his comments are removed.

I would suggest that it is because you and a number of other Residents, Businessmen, Corporate high rollers and the like, seem to have a massive superiority complex. Much of this board is sick of it.

[Pink Mist]

Dave if SCOTW does stand for sex capital etc, where do you come up with these incredible assuptions. A simple question have you been anywhere else?

[Guest IT Manager]

OMG Parryhandy. Does that mean you found it quite incomprehensible as well?

[erain]

Why DR. Pat Pong does needs a BBS provided GUN for controlling posters comments?

We are mature enough to recognize a racist post or anti government post. Let other user post decide and comment on that. How “THAI VISA” does want to establish itself? Anti foreigner or Anti poor foreigner?

Thai's may think this country is becoming JAPAN or SINGAPORE in terms of economy but no one can tell for sure what's really happening.

For example if you have lots of money and looking for decent audio system what would you buy??? Probably the best audio equipments money can buy right? So if Thailand thinks that "Sultan of Brunei" wants to have a house of Thailand then who are they kidding? People come to Thailand because it’s cheap ....if it were as expensive as Europe, I would rather go to Europe and live there.

One of my friend who works for TOYOTA KOREA (He is in Thailand now) He sales Lexus in Korea and he makes enough money to visit anywhere in the world and I asked him last night why did he come here to celebrate newyear ? His answer was because he wanted to have cheap drinks and girls and dress and so that he can save money and go to Europe and spend more.

By the way I got my AUS citizenship already and will leave this country as soon as I get my MBA. Do you know why ? Because I am sick of this country where I worked for 4 years as a Consultant and helped many Thai companies (Even Orange) and if I want to stay in this country and want to get a resident permit, then government gives me nothing because I am a dark skinned guy from India.

So after I got yelled from my friend for loving this country, I applied for AUS citizenship and got it.

Dr Pat Pong, you are welocme to use your GUN and delete my comments because you can !!!!

regards

eRain

[maerim]

Dr Pat Pong

Get your gnu and shoot this "Condultant "where he is most "welocme"as he"He sales Lexus in Korea" into the sunset of his new land.

That is of course he can find some accomodation that's not full of Afghan refugees.