Fugitive Ex-Leader Thaksin Dominates Thai Election

[jdinasia]

i fear the shit may hit the fan next week....

Care to elaborate?

What, you need an 8 X 10 glossy photo with annotations as to <deleted> is going to happen?

I do, what do you think is going to happen?

[metisdead]

Some inflammatory troll posts have been removed as well as the replies to those posts.

[jdinasia]

K. Thaksin has been a legally elected MP and by other MP's a legally elected PM. At the time of the coup he was a self-appointed caretaker PM who was trying to remove checks and balances to make sure next elections he would make good on his promise 'we'll rule for twenty years'.

As for the gutless British Government, a fugitive seeking asylum is supposed to refrain from any actions which may be embarrassing, or otherwise unwise. K. Thaksin has gone on record as 'we didn't seek asylum', 'we did seek asylum' and of course 'I will leave politics' while still meddling in Thai politics. Even searching it's about even whether k. Thaksin withdrew his asylum request or was simply asked to leave the country.

Lastly let me say I really hope 'his interests' will not return to power. 'By the people and for the people' is not the same as 'one man, one party, no compromise'

Thaksin's reason for a business visa was gone when he sold Man City. The UKBA revoked the business visa and afaik he never applied for any other visa (simply a guess, but I am assuming he was told when they revoked the Biz visa that re-applying wasn't wise )

I think the UKBA made the right decision in that Thailand wouldn't knowingly accept a fugitive from the UK justice system enter either.

[lungmi]

I'm quiet.. In my area, poor same Esaarn, they vote Dems. Why? Too many instructed workers before in Lybya, Nigeria and so on, they are interested a little bit in Politics, a little bit in English, but they know Mister T. is an _________.

We have PT voters, good friends of mine told me PT are good, but no Thaksin, no Jatuporns. Thai people are not stupid in general.

[landofthefree]

I feel this way too. I think some of the poll results have led certain people to rush to hasty conclusions. Let's not forget that even supposing that the polls are accurate, an awful lot of people in them remain undecided.

The one and only thing i think we can be certain of, it will be close. These people predicting landslides i think have let their emotions carry them away.

Utter nonsense PheuThai are going to win with a huge majority as everyone knows. Speak to me on Monday if I am wrong.

As i said, some people seem to have got carried away with their emotions. My guess is these are the people living in certain heartlands, where all they hear day after day is of a united love for one person or one party. Perhaps living in a bubble such as this it is hard to comprehend the feeling of the nation as a whole. Whilst based in Bangkok, i travel round quite a bit, and generally find a fairly even three-way split between the Dem supporters, the PTP supporters and the undecided slash bored with all this crap group, and that is how i think the election will play out.

Landofthefree, do you live in red heartland?

No I live in downtown Bangkok and work mostly with the Amart or elite clients. Today one of my clients a Director General in the Thai Government told me he was certain of a landslide Pheu Thai victory. This morning I saw my MP who is Pheu Thai, he Waied me and he is almost certain to win in Prakhanong. Most of my clients were or are Democrat but none seem happy with Abhisit so they probably won't vote PheuThai but also may not vote democrat this time.. I also read the Nation and Bangkok Post everyday and have seen the opinion polls for weeks all of which say PheuThai is way in the lead. I am not Thai but so many Thais tell me that they believe that the Democrats don't have much chance so on the basis of all this I can't see any chance of Abhisit winning. We won't have to wait long to find out. I hope we can talk again on Monday when we know the result and can work out when the next Coup is likely to take place!

[JemJem]

'ex-leader' ????

He is still very much the real leader of the PT Party and everyone knows that......and if the PT Party wins on July 3 and forms the government by itself, he will be the real Prime Minister.

I am no Democrat Party supporter but I really want to know what the PT supporters here think about a convicted criminal about to become the PM of Thailand ?!

Jem

Edited June 29, 2011 by JemJem

[jdinasia]

'ex-leader' ????

He is still very much the real leader of the PT Party and everyone knows that......and if the PT Party wins on July 3 and forms the government by itself, he will be the real Prime Minister.

I am no Democrat Party supporter but I really want to know what the PT supporters here think about a convicted criminal about to become the PM of Thailand ?!

Jem

Quite a few laws will have to be changed before Thaksin can become an MP again.

[Insight]

If the media in all it's modern forms dictated the outcome of this election, PT would win hands down.

However thankfully they don't (well, not entirely). I think the effect the violence of the reds had on the nation last year should not be underestimated. The results of these polls could well be very surprising for all sides.

The Dems are also clearly exercising a last-minute ramp up of their campaign which is apparently having some effect on the polls in the media.

[Insight]

No I live in downtown Bangkok and work mostly with the Amart or elite clients. Today one of my clients a Director General in the Thai Government told me he was certain of a landslide Pheu Thai victory. This morning I saw my MP who is Pheu Thai, he Waied me and he is almost certain to win in Prakhanong. Most of my clients were or are Democrat but none seem happy with Abhisit so they probably won't vote PheuThai but also may not vote democrat this time.. I also read the Nation and Bangkok Post everyday and have seen the opinion polls for weeks all of which say PheuThai is way in the lead. I am not Thai but so many Thais tell me that they believe that the Democrats don't have much chance so on the basis of all this I can't see any chance of Abhisit winning. We won't have to wait long to find out. I hope we can talk again on Monday when we know the result and can work out when the next Coup is likely to take place!

What exactly is an "elite client" in these parts? Somebody who actually pays the invoices?

[JemJem]

'ex-leader' ????

He is still very much the real leader of the PT Party and everyone knows that......and if the PT Party wins on July 3 and forms the government by itself, he will be the real Prime Minister.

I am no Democrat Party supporter but I really want to know what the PT supporters here think about a convicted criminal about to become the PM of Thailand ?!

Jem

Quite a few laws will have to be changed before Thaksin can become an MP again.

He won't need to be an MP.......whoever the (puppet) PM will be, Thaksin will be the real PM...he will be the one running the show....from Dubai or Montenegro.....or wherever.

Jem

[jdinasia]

'ex-leader' ????

He is still very much the real leader of the PT Party and everyone knows that......and if the PT Party wins on July 3 and forms the government by itself, he will be the real Prime Minister.

I am no Democrat Party supporter but I really want to know what the PT supporters here think about a convicted criminal about to become the PM of Thailand ?!

Jem

Quite a few laws will have to be changed before Thaksin can become an MP again.

He won't need to be an MP.......whoever the (puppet) PM will be, Thaksin will be the real PM...he will be the one running the show....from Dubai or Montenegro.....or wherever.

Jem

If Thaksin isn't allowed back (with ALL the legal things addressed) I don't think he can hold PTP together for long. Too many of the old style corrupt regional leaders in there mixed with those that he radicalized as his red-shirt street politics crowd. They will implode if they get into office without him.

[myfriendu]

I feel this way too. I think some of the poll results have led certain people to rush to hasty conclusions. Let's not forget that even supposing that the polls are accurate, an awful lot of people in them remain undecided.

The one and only thing i think we can be certain of, it will be close. These people predicting landslides i think have let their emotions carry them away.

Utter nonsense PheuThai are going to win with a huge majority as everyone knows. Speak to me on Monday if I am wrong.

As i said, some people seem to have got carried away with their emotions. My guess is these are the people living in certain heartlands, where all they hear day after day is of a united love for one person or one party. Perhaps living in a bubble such as this it is hard to comprehend the feeling of the nation as a whole. Whilst based in Bangkok, i travel round quite a bit, and generally find a fairly even three-way split between the Dem supporters, the PTP supporters and the undecided slash bored with all this crap group, and that is how i think the election will play out.

Landofthefree, do you live in red heartland?

No I live in downtown Bangkok and work mostly with the Amart or elite clients. Today one of my clients a Director General in the Thai Government told me he was certain of a landslide Pheu Thai victory. This morning I saw my MP who is Pheu Thai, he Waied me and he is almost certain to win in Prakhanong. Most of my clients were or are Democrat but none seem happy with Abhisit so they probably won't vote PheuThai but also may not vote democrat this time.. I also read the Nation and Bangkok Post everyday and have seen the opinion polls for weeks all of which say PheuThai is way in the lead. I am not Thai but so many Thais tell me that they believe that the Democrats don't have much chance so on the basis of all this I can't see any chance of Abhisit winning. We won't have to wait long to find out. I hope we can talk again on Monday when we know the result and can work out when the next Coup is likely to take place!

you are so deluded

[metisdead]

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[bigbamboo]

Thaksin........ sorry, Yingluck........is sure to win but the key is by how much and whether the rumours are true that if she has no overall majority the military will step in again to influence the leaders of the potential coalition parties. If Peu Thai does win an overall majority the consequences will depend on their subsequent actions.

[rogercw]

The tactics her political advisors have her using seem to be winning. Why change anything this close to the end?

[whybother]

Thaksin........ sorry, Yingluck........is sure to win but the key is by how much and whether the rumours are true that if she has no overall majority the military will step in again to influence the leaders of the potential coalition parties. If Peu Thai does win an overall majority the consequences will depend on their subsequent actions.

If Pheu Thai don't get a majority and don't get into government, the red shirts will sure as hell be blaming the army for "forcing" the smaller parties to back the Democrats.

But really, the smaller parties can stand up against the army and back Pheu Thai if they really want to.

The worst the army can do is stage a coup, which is effectively what it would be if the smaller parties allow themselves to be pushed into a backing a Democrat government.

They can't complain if they don't stand up to the army.

[beelzabub666]

Just an observation from one who was here before and since.

Thailand entered a dark age when Thaksin was overthrown in the military coup.

The entire spirit and heart of the country was ripped out.

It's now the Land of Frightened Frowns.

What a festive and happier place it was before that day.

Look at it now.

Blockading the airport was far more damaging to tourism and the economy than anyone seems to imagine.

Thousands of tourists were trapped here or couldn't come....

But the real cost is the thousands will never come to Thailand again because of it.

.

Thailand lost face before the world (and untold billions of Bt) with that escapade, and the inaction of the military and police to do anything about it

They will never live that down.

I really don't care much about Thai politics. It's not my country. I have no vote....It's just an observation.

[whybother]

<snip>

Blockading the airport was far more damaging to tourism and the economy than anyone seems to imagine.

Thousands of tourists were trapped here or couldn't come....

But the real cost is the thousands will never come to Thailand again because of it.

.

Thailand lost face before the world (and untold billions of Bt) with that escapade, and the inaction of the military and police to do anything about it

They will never live that down.

I really don't care much about Thai politics. It's not my country. I have no vote....It's just an observation.

What happens in countries when there are airport strikes or the airport is closed because of snow or volcanic ash? Do people stop going there just because the airport was shut down for a few days?

[patjem]

Just an observation from one who was here before and since.

Thailand entered a dark age when Thaksin was overthrown in the military coup.

The entire spirit and heart of the country was ripped out.

It's now the Land of Frightened Frowns.

What a festive and happier place it was before that day.

Look at it now.

Blockading the airport was far more damaging to tourism and the economy than anyone seems to imagine.

Thousands of tourists were trapped here or couldn't come....

But the real cost is the thousands will never come to Thailand again because of it.

.

Thailand lost face before the world (and untold billions of Bt) with that escapade, and the inaction of the military and police to do anything about it

They will never live that down.

I really don't care much about Thai politics. It's not my country. I have no vote....It's just an observation.

OK, and how many expats were driven away following the events surrounding the yellow escapade? How many possibly will if the reds get into power? I don't profess to have any statistics on this question, however, I know of none that were given cause to concern by the airport closure, since there was no violence, just an inconvenience (yes, it did affect me directly, as did the reds' debacle in Pattaya), and I am definitely no fan of the yellows.... however, my opinion from chatting with others like myself is that some will be keeping themselves abreast of the situation should PT win the election, in case it would be wise to leave, at least for a while.

[rubl]

Just an observation from one who was here before and since.

Thailand entered a dark age when Thaksin was overthrown in the military coup.

The entire spirit and heart of the country was ripped out.

It's now the Land of Frightened Frowns.

What a festive and happier place it was before that day.

Look at it now.

Blockading the airport was far more damaging to tourism and the economy than anyone seems to imagine.

Thousands of tourists were trapped here or couldn't come....

But the real cost is the thousands will never come to Thailand again because of it.

.

Thailand lost face before the world (and untold billions of Bt) with that escapade, and the inaction of the military and police to do anything about it

They will never live that down.

I really don't care much about Thai politics. It's not my country. I have no vote....It's just an observation.

Somehow this seems an observation from someone who might have been here but didn't learn a bloody thing.

Ignore the fact that 'things' really started when k. Thaksin sold his family stakes in Shinawatra Holdings the day a law allowing that came in action. Managed to avoid paying tax as well. Still of course blame the yellow shirts from blockading the airport and ruining the country. Thailand lost face. Slightly ignoring the disaster when UDD leader Arisman with his supporters stormed the ASIAN convention and caused National Leaders to flee.

I do care about Thailand and it people, although less about it's funny politics. Still IMHO a much more valid observation.

[Gonsalviz]

i fear the shit may hit the fan next week....

Care to elaborate?

There is a fan and shit is going to hit it. What more do you want to know?

He has a very small imagination.

[Gonsalviz]

I think that Puea Thai will get a lot less votes than they should due to the fact that the font size of the Puea Thai candidate on the voting form is considerably smaller than the other candidates.

I wonder how that happened..........

I would think that PTP voters will be able to read the number "1".

As far as I am aware the Puea Thai candidates are not in first position at the top of the list (which you would have through they would be).

Another piece of suspect foul play. But we all knew that anyway.

The parties are shown in numerical order.

It seems that some people like conspiracy theories. But we all knew that anyway.

As I have said on numerous occasions. Google is amazing.

It seems to me that It is PT that used an overly large long logo. And there they are right at the top. Beside the number 1

[Gonsalviz]

Yingluck is NOT qualified to run the government....anyone who thinks she is not in collaboration with her brother Thaksin to reenter the country and retrieve his billion or so baht needs to wake up.

Lets not forget he is a fugitve for a reason and literally hiding in another country. There are some countries that will not even allow him entry.

He is a criminal, eventhough a very rich one, he is still a criminal. - and his sister is not qualified to be prime minister, might as well just elect a noodle vendor.

You should be more cautious! Mr Thaksin was in fact a legally elected (by a vast majority) Prime Minister ousted by a coup, and yes he has been denied entry by many countries. Bizarre really considering most of them are run by legally elected Governments! There then followed a period of out of control "mob rule" in Thailand the damage to Thailand caused was clear for all to see!

You might wish to consider how he will be feeling about the residents from those countries (that turned their backs on him ) living in Thailand if his interests return to power.

Think about that before you let your mouth run away with you.

Before you come back with the "corruption" argument, start forming a list of S E Asian premiers that did not in some way benefit financially from being in power.

I for one was disappointed with the way Mr Thaksin was treated by the gutless British Government of the time and I look forward to hearing their bumbling rants if his interests return to power again.

You are very correct about the other SE Asian premiers. But none of them have been convicted. Before you let your mouth run away with you, It would be wise to note that the activities of Thaksin are duly noted in several branches of the government. The courts even went lenient on him and did not take all the money that was asked for.

While corruption is rampant in Thailand and the rest of SE Asia, I will not believe that all the branches of the government are completely corrupt.

[gk10002000]

Dont forget, Thaksin was declared a fugitive by a government that illegally siezed power. Thaksin was the duly elected PM at the time and with the constitution that was in place. Of course the military coup has tossed out the constitution. That makes the idea of a constitution meaningless if people can ignore it and re-write it without due process. Even in the far from perfect United States, the constitution is the law of the land but there are provisions for changing it.

[gk10002000]

Just an observation from one who was here before and since.

Thailand entered a dark age when Thaksin was overthrown in the military coup.

The entire spirit and heart of the country was ripped out.

It's now the Land of Frightened Frowns.

What a festive and happier place it was before that day.

Look at it now.

Blockading the airport was far more damaging to tourism and the economy than anyone seems to imagine.

Thousands of tourists were trapped here or couldn't come....

But the real cost is the thousands will never come to Thailand again because of it.

.

Thailand lost face before the world (and untold billions of Bt) with that escapade, and the inaction of the military and police to do anything about it

They will never live that down.

I really don't care much about Thai politics. It's not my country. I have no vote....It's just an observation.

OK, and how many expats were driven away following the events surrounding the yellow escapade? How many possibly will if the reds get into power? I don't profess to have any statistics on this question, however, I know of none that were given cause to concern by the airport closure, since there was no violence, just an inconvenience (yes, it did affect me directly, as did the reds' debacle in Pattaya), and I am definitely no fan of the yellows.... however, my opinion from chatting with others like myself is that some will be keeping themselves abreast of the situation should PT win the election, in case it would be wise to leave, at least for a while.

It did not drive me away, but I am single and travel and visit simply. However, it did guarantee that I will NEVER committ any serious amount of assets in Thailand. I will never buy a place, unless it is going at a fire sale price. I will continue to visit (11 trips so far). But as a somewhat stable government I have to say no and will pass.

[Gonsalviz]

Dont forget, Thaksin was declared a fugitive by a government that illegally siezed power. Thaksin was the duly elected PM at the time and with the constitution that was in place. Of course the military coup has tossed out the constitution. That makes the idea of a constitution meaningless if people can ignore it and re-write it without due process. Even in the far from perfect United States, the constitution is the law of the land but there are provisions for changing it.

My point is that even if the coup against Thaksin was not legal, he was tried for the crimes brought against him and his convictions still stand.

[nod]

Just an observation from one who was here before and since.

Thailand entered a dark age when Thaksin was overthrown in the military coup.

The entire spirit and heart of the country was ripped out.

It's now the Land of Frightened Frowns.

What a festive and happier place it was before that day.

Look at it now.

Blockading the airport was far more damaging to tourism and the economy than anyone seems to imagine.

Thousands of tourists were trapped here or couldn't come....

But the real cost is the thousands will never come to Thailand again because of it.

.

Thailand lost face before the world (and untold billions of Bt) with that escapade, and the inaction of the military and police to do anything about it

They will never live that down.

I really don't care much about Thai politics. It's not my country. I have no vote....It's just an observation.

Totally agree with you.

[nod]

Dont forget, Thaksin was declared a fugitive by a government that illegally siezed power. Thaksin was the duly elected PM at the time and with the constitution that was in place. Of course the military coup has tossed out the constitution. That makes the idea of a constitution meaningless if people can ignore it and re-write it without due process. Even in the far from perfect United States, the constitution is the law of the land but there are provisions for changing it.

Totally agree again.

[nod]

Just an observation from one who was here before and since.

Thailand entered a dark age when Thaksin was overthrown in the military coup.

The entire spirit and heart of the country was ripped out.

It's now the Land of Frightened Frowns.

What a festive and happier place it was before that day.

Look at it now.

Blockading the airport was far more damaging to tourism and the economy than anyone seems to imagine.

Thousands of tourists were trapped here or couldn't come....

But the real cost is the thousands will never come to Thailand again because of it.

.

Thailand lost face before the world (and untold billions of Bt) with that escapade, and the inaction of the military and police to do anything about it

They will never live that down.

I really don't care much about Thai politics. It's not my country. I have no vote....It's just an observation.

Precisely. Don't get rid of something by force or mob rule unless you have the talent, intelligence and ability to replace it with something better that actually works.

[virtualtraveller]

Chiang Mai is awash with red flags outside all houses, they certainly have campaigned a lot more effectively, the Dems seem to stumble at every opportunity, I'm doubtful they will come close to PTP, even in the last election it surprised me that PPP won nearly half of the seats despite the odds stacked against it, they just know how to hook in the poor voter, the Dems don't. This has been the Dem's election to lose and lose it they appear to be doing.

The way the Red camp has been painting this all up, the polls suggest they've won already and anything less will be 'stolen'. It means that public opinion has been formed against a minority coalition, so that even if a Dem/BJT alliance gets more seats than PTP, they can't justify forming a government, there will be a riot!

That's how this election has been fought, for the hearts and minds of people against 'deals', rather than against 'following the rules'. Pity the anti-Thaksin side hasn't been quite as dirty in pointing out that PTP is an utter charade, the election a farce and the thought of a party being run on remote control from Dubai, through a political novice and clone, isn't democracy at all.

Also, don't forget the last minute flurry of vote buying for the 'undecided'- when it comes to that tactic, you can bet the PTP canvassers are far better at it than anyone else, or at least far more likely to take risks. Afterall, if their party is disbanded one more time they're going to rise up in revolution.

I think both sides have already thought one step ahead, ie 'how to disqualify Yingluck and disqualify PTP, and how to let a minority govt know that it's not acceptable to a lot of people'.

I'm still holding out that maybe Barnharn, stuck as he is in the middle with the deciding vote, will insist on a Government of National Unity.