Fugitive Ex-Leader Thaksin Dominates Thai Election

[rixalex]

Take a look at the latest Suan Dusit Poll.

Puea Thai is ahead by 17%. And that's without the undecided voters. The only place in Thailand where Abhisit is still preferred is the South. Even in Bangkok Puea Thai is way ahead.

17% is i agree a lot, although i think the fact that little more than two weeks prior to that poll, the gap was less than 6%, shows that fluctuations are quite possible from one day to the next, and whether the extra 10% that swung in Puea Thais direction from 29 May to 19 June is evidence of solid support that will stick by them come 3rd July, i'm not so sure.

Also there are the undecided voters to factor in. The way you stated it, you seem to think that the large number of them makes the case for Puea Thai stronger. I don't think it does. If all those voters were not undecided, but rather loyal to some other small party, the election would be so much easier to predict. The fact that these voters could swing in either direction, i would say makes it sensible for nobody to be counting chickens at this stage.

[animatic]

"His father wouldn't support him if he were still alive," Thaksin's 82-year-old aunt Taowan Shinawatra told AFP in an interview at her home in northern Thailand, saying he should stick to business.

"We have enough as it is. We don't need to go into politics. People who go into politics can't let go of the prestige. He is obsessed by it."

Interesting insights from someone who has known him his whole life.

.

Indeed. Auntie Taowan is a very wise woman.

"People who go into politics can't let go of the prestige."

and the face it makes for them. Seem some can never go lower in life for fear of losing face gained, and thus move always upward. Never thinking let alone realizing that the face they lose in the actions of always moving up, is NEVER replaced by the prestige they imagine they will gain.

[lannarebirth]

"His father wouldn't support him if he were still alive," Thaksin's 82-year-old aunt Taowan Shinawatra told AFP in an interview at her home in northern Thailand, saying he should stick to business.

"We have enough as it is. We don't need to go into politics. People who go into politics can't let go of the prestige. He is obsessed by it."

Interesting insights from someone who has known him his whole life.

.

Indeed. Auntie Taowan is a very wise woman.

"People who go into politics can't let go of the prestige."

and the face it makes for them. Seem some can never go lower in life for fear of losing face gained, and thus move always upward. Never thinking let alone realizing that the face they lose in the actions of always moving up, is NEVER replaced by the prestige they imagine they will gain.

Thaksin's "prestige" cannot go up among those who already admire him, it can only go down. It CAN go up amongst those that are currently indifferent to him or despise him, but I'd place very very long odds on that.

Edited July 1, 2011 by lannarebirth

[landofthefree]

No I live in downtown Bangkok and work mostly with the Amart or elite clients. Today one of my clients a Director General in the Thai Government told me he was certain of a landslide Pheu Thai victory. This morning I saw my MP who is Pheu Thai, he Waied me and he is almost certain to win in Prakhanong. Most of my clients were or are Democrat but none seem happy with Abhisit so they probably won't vote PheuThai but also may not vote democrat this time.. I also read the Nation and Bangkok Post everyday and have seen the opinion polls for weeks all of which say PheuThai is way in the lead. I am not Thai but so many Thais tell me that they believe that the Democrats don't have much chance so on the basis of all this I can't see any chance of Abhisit winning. We won't have to wait long to find out. I hope we can talk again on Monday when we know the result and can work out when the next Coup is likely to take place!

As far as the polls are concerned, i have yet to see any that show PT way in the lead, so that means either you have seen different polls from me - unlikely i think - or that something in your mind is distorting the figures to reflect your own personal feelings; the slant of which is of course are a matter of record here on Thaivisa.

Anyway, like you say, the truth will all be revealed soon enough.

Rixalex where are you now?

[rixalex]

No I live in downtown Bangkok and work mostly with the Amart or elite clients. Today one of my clients a Director General in the Thai Government told me he was certain of a landslide Pheu Thai victory. This morning I saw my MP who is Pheu Thai, he Waied me and he is almost certain to win in Prakhanong. Most of my clients were or are Democrat but none seem happy with Abhisit so they probably won't vote PheuThai but also may not vote democrat this time.. I also read the Nation and Bangkok Post everyday and have seen the opinion polls for weeks all of which say PheuThai is way in the lead. I am not Thai but so many Thais tell me that they believe that the Democrats don't have much chance so on the basis of all this I can't see any chance of Abhisit winning. We won't have to wait long to find out. I hope we can talk again on Monday when we know the result and can work out when the next Coup is likely to take place!

As far as the polls are concerned, i have yet to see any that show PT way in the lead, so that means either you have seen different polls from me - unlikely i think - or that something in your mind is distorting the figures to reflect your own personal feelings; the slant of which is of course are a matter of record here on Thaivisa.

Anyway, like you say, the truth will all be revealed soon enough.

Rixalex where are you now?

Just back from a couple of days away.

Don't worry, just sent you a PM to personally congratulate you on your prediction.

I thought i knew the way most Thai people thought. I was clearly wrong.