Thailand Set For Return To 'Thaksinomics'

[whybother]

Funny to see talk of inflation that will be caused by giving those at the bottom more. In the past year or so they have seen their staple foods go up by immense amounts and the wage remain unchanged. Who was arguing for a big increase to help the poor out then? You cant increase their wage because it risks inflation but when inflation comes along screw them and let their living standards drop. This is a correction for all the wrongs of the past decade when they have hardly seen any increase in their income but seen the price of everything they need go up. It wasnt long ago a basic bottle of palm oil was going for 80 baht in markets while the government spouted some nonsense about how they wouldnt let anyone sell it for more than 47 baht (their controlled price) and many daily workers buy from these places. The government did nothing to help them infact many people think certain government ministers colluded to create the oil rise. We all know the story of egg prices and pork and how much in a decade stall food has gone up. Basic necessities. And in the last decade how much have daily wages increased by?

I don't think anyone is arguing against wage rises to minimum wage earners. They were given a rise just last week.

But a 50% rise is going to cause some serious issues to many employers - big and small.

[Jingthing]

Let them eat (rice) cakes?

[Bkkorupcountry]

She has promised rice farmers a minimum price of 15,000 Baht per tonne, much higher than the current market price of less than 10,000 Baht.

AFP appear to have missed Ms Yingluck's off-the-cuff promise to raise the price to 20,000 Baht per tonne, which will be even-more damaging, to the country's finances & rice-exports.

The farmers might get 1/2 of the 15k

and the other 5 if it happens goes right to the millers and transporters on the top.

Eventually the farmers will catch on again and the truck loads of rice dumped in front of ministries will start up again.

But by then the economy will be in the hopper.

Giving workers a 50% raize from 200 to 300 Baht a day will mean inflation will be 50%. In the end no one wins. There is only one problem

Thailand will have less exports. That means less money coming into the country. That means unemployment will increase.

Wow. We have a new Milton Friedman / Maynard Keynes in our midst

[KKvampire]

Peau Thai Voodoo economics, believe me Thailand will be a basket case in SE Asia within 10 years, Not an Economic Brain Cell worthy of the name amongst them

[Bkkorupcountry]

Peau Thai Voodoo economics, believe me Thailand will be a basket case in SE Asia within 10 years, Not an Economic Brain Cell worthy of the name amongst them

Kindly share your credentials if you want people to believe you. Otherwise, we would probably be better off believing someone who has made a fortune that far exceeds the net worth of all TV members combined.

[KKvampire]

Peau Thai Voodoo economics, believe me Thailand will be a basket case in SE Asia within 10 years, Not an Economic Brain Cell worthy of the name amongst them

Kindly share your credentials if you want people to believe you. Otherwise, we would probably be better off believing someone who has made a fortune that far exceeds the net worth of all TV members combined.

And everyone knows how he achieved that, so kindly talk some sense.

Edited July 12, 2011 by KKvampire

[animatic]

Look... you anti T *flame removed*.

Wake up, the policies of Thaksin of paying minimum guaranteed prices brought real tangible benefits to Thai farmers.

The rich Chinese grain buyers have always controlled the prices and kept the rural poor in debt to them for many many years.

Also, low cost micro loans enable farmers to purchase equipment to enable them to be more efficient and more productive.

Simple yet meaningful policies which the rural poor remember.

That is why he has so much support in the country, not just in Isaan.

As soon as the Dems got back in, the old ways came back, farmers screwed by the big buyers.

You can pontificate until the cows come home, but you can't change the reality of the situation.

The Dems have always looked after the big players and the government pen pushers who couldn't give a rat's about the rural poor,

I read all this rubbish by golf playing, pub hanging expats, and it's obvious some of you need to get out of their caves and talk to the supporters of PT.

The reasons are always the same, Mr T was the first guy to care about us.

That is why we support him and PT.

Thanks for calling people twits. Very mature.

1. The rice pledging scheme was originally supposedly to remove the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune for Thai rice farmers. however, it quickly became a higher than market rates vote winner, which is effectively taking taxes from people who pay tax (like me), and gifting it to people who produce rice. Very quickly, this became a robber baron game of obtaining rice from neighbouring countries at a lower rate, not growing it, then selling it into the pledge scheme. In addition, it encouraged volume rather than quantity, and yet also created a market distortion with the Thai government being unable to sell the rice profitably and so billions of tons were wasted; from 2003 to 2009, Thai rice exports dropped (not grew, dropped) 30%.

in the heady days of 2008, Mingkwan (PPP) talked of a rice cartel, with promises of 15,000b per ton, and didn't sell the stockpile of rice he had then because at that time PPP had already been buying at that sort of price, while the market price was well below that, kindly landing the next government with a huge stockpile, and a bunch of farmers growing bad quality rice. In the end, I would guess the long suffering Thai tax payer ended up paying for a bunch of rice which has been left to rot somewhere.

The current crop guarantee scheme, no doubt, is in theory less profitable for farmers. Any time when you don't pay 15,000b for a ton of rice and instead pay market rates (currently about 9,000+ baht) the farmer ends up with less.

However, the reality is MOST of the benefit of crop pledging goes to insiders, not farmers. Many of those insiders are connected politicians. The entire tax paying base of Thailand is effectively giving a subsidy that is NOT needed to encourage substandard rice farmers to keep working (at a guess 30% of it) and 70% is a gift to the people who run provincial businesses connected to the pledging scheme.

IT IS A SCAM.

Micro credit; the TDRI have already demonstrated that the microcredit scheme of TRT was questionable; without doubt worth trying but not anywhere near complete or running smoothly; the architect of it told me face to face he could not consider it under any criteria to be a success, and commented that the reason Grameen bank and the like worked was it took way more time than a single massive shunt to make microcredit a success ,and the implementation was too rushed, done without pre agreed goals or objectives, and had increased household debt for many without a resultant increase in productivity to service it. YES, this is one of the policies I most liked TRT for at least having a go, but I cannot believe it could be held up as any sort of a success story when it was so clearly more of a bribe than a fund, and with so few success stories to hold up in the entire TRT period 2001-2006 (if there were many stories, the TRT PR machine would have found them and promoted them heavily).

As for TRT's massive rural popularity; let me know how strong they are in....

Chonburi

Suphanburi

Southern Isaan

Anywhere south of Phetburi

Awful lot of rural people in those areas.....

As you are obviously also Thai, let me just say this.

The rest of the world, in a strongly functioning democracy, the role of government should be to provide a safety net for the poor. No one should be left behind. Education, healthcare, access to a fair job, security, free speech, food and water, etc.

It should not there to allow certain selected poor professions (such as say rice farmers) to profit unjustly from market distortions, while other professions (e.g. the majority of Thais who work in factories etc) subsidise these initiatives.

Anyhow, for all the claims that Thaksin helped the rural poor so much, you would expect in 5 years that affluence jumped up substantially, and at least the amount of wealth distribution changed with the rural poor getting much more with all these ideas executed. You'd expect a huge jump in 2002-2003 at least.

So while the richest few in Thailand such as the Shinawatra clan tripled their wealth in 2001 - 2005 period.....alledgedly (they do like suing people for saying stuff like that); did the rural poor also more than triple theirs? No.

In fact, if we look at worldbank poverty stats, the time at which (from the period available 1981 - 2004) we can see the GINI coefficient actually improving far more from the period 1992 - 1998 (which is when Thailand started to see major industrialisation and shifting to the city) with actually a best measure in 1998 which TRT's various schemes still had not managed to replicate by 2004 which was pre oil prices ramping up. And yes, agreed 1998 was a crash...albeit one somewhat orchestrated or accidentally presided over by former TRT deputy PM and former PT big wig Chavalit "big Jiew".

We do see an ongoing reduction in number below the poverty line since 1981...again hard to see a major real change when Thaksin stepped in. Maybe you need more data for it, I do admit what i have to work with is skant.

Tellingly, if we look at the deciles, instead what we really see is actually that 1998 vs. 2004 we are seeing the top decile dropping to their lowest in 1998, but then again building back up.

This big shift we might expect to see...of equality....it simply isn't there.

At least not in the data available. And most income and so on stats bear that out.

http://iresearch.wor.../povcalSvy.html

On the other hand....we can look at tax used to pay for the schemes run to date. Middle class (about 5-7 million) pay most of the tax in Thailand coming from income source (consumption, luxury, etc taxes excluded). When the Shinawatras avoided paying tax by buying shares at 1 baht then 24 hours later selling them at 47.5 baht per share, without any tax paid, they and the others that do this are effectively shifting money from the middle upper portion of the income curve to the top decile, rather than redistributing down to the lower deciles. When you take into account the TRT approach to helping people get out of poverty is effectively taking the tax baht that they don't pay and gifting it to the poor in these various schemes, you can start to understand why trying to build the country into a nation of entrepreneurs is unlikely to succeed when they are getting simultaneously screwed over to collect tax, and getting few benefits from the government back.

As long as Thais view the government as 'Por Liang' then this mindset (which is how a 5 year old thinks a country can be run) will keep getting repeated again and again.

And as the middle class get more and more tired of paying for idiocy like gifting rice farmers an extra 50% of the price simply for being 'nice Thai rice farmers' then you can understand why they are willing to get angry and not play all nice like they are supposed to.

Apparently, being pro business makes me one of the ammartaya.

Ironic, being that I come from a family of illiterate rice farmers innit.

I'll accept being called a wit, but not a twit.

The basic point I was making Steve made an length with much greater detail.

Bob you can buy their sale pitch now, but you WILL pay later.

One of the reasons I dislike Thaksin so much is how badly he has scammed the poor,

while throwing them crumbs and talking those crumbs up until memories remember them as cake.

Don't confuse in your emotional state disliking Thaksin's manipulations and being anti-Poor...they are not at all joined at the hip.

Edited July 12, 2011 by animatic

[Bkkorupcountry]

Peau Thai Voodoo economics, believe me Thailand will be a basket case in SE Asia within 10 years, Not an Economic Brain Cell worthy of the name amongst them

Kindly share your credentials if you want people to believe you. Otherwise, we would probably be better off believing someone who has made a fortune that far exceeds the net worth of all TV members combined.

And everyone knows how he achieved that, so kindly talk some sense.

However he achieved it, he couldn't have done so without brains. On the other hand, anyone (with or without a whole or half a brain) can say, Believe me.

[animatic]

Let them eat (rice) cakes?

Mariething Jingtoinette per chance?

[lannarebirth]

Peau Thai Voodoo economics, believe me Thailand will be a basket case in SE Asia within 10 years, Not an Economic Brain Cell worthy of the name amongst them

Kindly share your credentials if you want people to believe you. Otherwise, we would probably be better off believing someone who has made a fortune that far exceeds the net worth of all TV members combined.

And everyone knows how he achieved that, so kindly talk some sense.

However he achieved it, he couldn't have done so without brains. On the other hand, anyone (with or without a whole or half a brain) can say, Believe me.

He was fortunate to have married someone far richer and smarter than himself. SHE arranged it; or at least her family did. They don't tend to see these these thing as corruuption, but their right, for being "higher" sorts of people.. Makes me wonder why you're talking about Thaksin and business at all. Surely you knew that.

Edited July 12, 2011 by lannarebirth

[Bkkorupcountry]

Kindly share your credentials if you want people to believe you. Otherwise, we would probably be better off believing someone who has made a fortune that far exceeds the net worth of all TV members combined.

And everyone knows how he achieved that, so kindly talk some sense.

However he achieved it, he couldn't have done so without brains. On the other hand, anyone (with or without a whole or half a brain) can say, Believe me.

He was fortunate to have married someone far richer and smarter than himself. SHE arranged it; or at least her family did. They don't tend to see these these thing as corruuption, but their right, for being "higher" sorts of people.. Makes me wonder why you're talking about Thaksin and business at all. Surely you knew that.

Yes of course, but nevertheless, there is undoubtedly cunning and intelligence between the years. However KKvampire would have us believe him just because he says so and had not shown us why we should

[rubl]

Peau Thai Voodoo economics, believe me Thailand will be a basket case in SE Asia within 10 years, Not an Economic Brain Cell worthy of the name amongst them

Kindly share your credentials if you want people to believe you. Otherwise, we would probably be better off believing someone who has made a fortune that far exceeds the net worth of all TV members combined.

Former NASDAQ chairman Bernard Madoff per chance ?

[Bkkorupcountry]

Peau Thai Voodoo economics, believe me Thailand will be a basket case in SE Asia within 10 years, Not an Economic Brain Cell worthy of the name amongst them

Kindly share your credentials if you want people to believe you. Otherwise, we would probably be better off believing someone who has made a fortune that far exceeds the net worth of all TV members combined.

Former NASDAQ chairman Bernard Madoff per chance ?

Him too

[hellodolly]

<br>

<br>As usual, the anti-thaksin brigade misses the whole point. The article is pointing towards generally good times for the country and the economy, albeit with certain inflationary concerns. The greatest risk to Thailand is now political turmoil. And yet, the anti-T gang is still criticising the new Govt and unable to look to the future.<br>

<br>I somehow doubt that a price of 20,000 Baht-per-tonne for rice. over half of which is subsidy from the government, is a sign of prudent management of government-finances, although I'm sure that certain middle-men (now which party do they support ?) will welcome the good times which appear to be heading their way ! <img src="http://static.thaivisa.com/forum/public/style_emoticons/default/ohmy.gif" class="bbc_emoticon" alt=""> <br><br>And how come Thaksin is now making announcements about mega-projects, rather than the PM-elect or PTP-ministers-to-be, looking to the future doesn't this suggest certain tensions, as to who may actually be running the country ;Perhaps Ms-Yingluck will show the country who's really the boss, a woman scorned, and all that ? Or perhaps not. =""

Well said.

As I was reading it I came to realize Thaksin is dropping the false mask and letting the whole world know That he is running the show. That is quite a family. One a convicted criminal living outside the country that he is running and the other his patsy. I can not imagine any one of my five sisters willing to look the fool in public for me.I truly hoped that she would at least make a try at running the show but apparently not. Not even a pretense of running it.

Edited July 12, 2011 by hellodolly

[hellodolly]

As usual, the anti-thaksin brigade misses the whole point. The article is pointing towards generally good times for the country and the economy, albeit with certain inflationary concerns. The greatest risk to Thailand is now political turmoil. And yet, the anti-T gang is still criticising the new Govt and unable to look to the future.

It's funny that you want people to look to the future, but support going back to Thaksin.

We worry about Thaksin Bankrupting the country with his Thaksinomics.

Most all non TRT aligned economists said years ago

it was unworkable as he has presented it, and no signs of change.

It will make him adored in Issan till the day the bill will come due for all Thais.

Look... you anti T *flame removed*.

Wake up, the policies of Thaksin of paying minimum guaranteed prices brought real tangible benefits to Thai farmers.

The rich Chinese grain buyers have always controlled the prices and kept the rural poor in debt to them for many many years.

Also, low cost micro loans enable farmers to purchase equipment to enable them to be more efficient and more productive.

Simple yet meaningful policies which the rural poor remember.

That is why he has so much support in the country, not just in Isaan.

As soon as the Dems got back in, the old ways came back, farmers screwed by the big buyers.

You can pontificate until the cows come home, but you can't change the reality of the situation.

The Dems have always looked after the big players and the government pen pushers who couldn't give a rat's about the rural poor,

I read all this rubbish by golf playing, pub hanging expats, and it's obvious some of you need to get out of their caves and talk to the supporters of PT.

The reasons are always the same, Mr T was the first guy to care about us.

That is why we support him and PT.

Can some one tell me why there are so many poor people after all Thaksin did for them?

[rubl]

Can some one tell me why there are so many poor people after all Thaksin did for them?

I could say 'he only had five years (2001 - 2006)', but since k. Thaksin has promised a few months ago 'I'll make all rich in six months', that would be a bit of a poor excuse, now wouldn't it ?

[Bkkorupcountry]

We worry about Thaksin Bankrupting the country with his Thaksinomics.

Most all non TRT aligned economists said years ago

it was unworkable as he has presented it, and no signs of change.

It will make him adored in Issan till the day the bill will come due for all Thais.

Look... you anti T *flame removed*.

Wake up, the policies of Thaksin of paying minimum guaranteed prices brought real tangible benefits to Thai farmers.

The rich Chinese grain buyers have always controlled the prices and kept the rural poor in debt to them for many many years.

Also, low cost micro loans enable farmers to purchase equipment to enable them to be more efficient and more productive.

Simple yet meaningful policies which the rural poor remember.

That is why he has so much support in the country, not just in Isaan.

As soon as the Dems got back in, the old ways came back, farmers screwed by the big buyers.

You can pontificate until the cows come home, but you can't change the reality of the situation.

The Dems have always looked after the big players and the government pen pushers who couldn't give a rat's about the rural poor,

I read all this rubbish by golf playing, pub hanging expats, and it's obvious some of you need to get out of their caves and talk to the supporters of PT.

The reasons are always the same, Mr T was the first guy to care about us.

That is why we support him and PT.

Can some one tell me why there are so many poor people after all Thaksin did for them?

Are there no poor people where you come from?

Next.

[patjem]

We worry about Thaksin Bankrupting the country with his Thaksinomics.

Most all non TRT aligned economists said years ago

it was unworkable as he has presented it, and no signs of change.

It will make him adored in Issan till the day the bill will come due for all Thais.

Look... you anti T *flame removed*.

Wake up, the policies of Thaksin of paying minimum guaranteed prices brought real tangible benefits to Thai farmers.

The rich Chinese grain buyers have always controlled the prices and kept the rural poor in debt to them for many many years.

Also, low cost micro loans enable farmers to purchase equipment to enable them to be more efficient and more productive.

Simple yet meaningful policies which the rural poor remember.

That is why he has so much support in the country, not just in Isaan.

As soon as the Dems got back in, the old ways came back, farmers screwed by the big buyers.

You can pontificate until the cows come home, but you can't change the reality of the situation.

The Dems have always looked after the big players and the government pen pushers who couldn't give a rat's about the rural poor,

I read all this rubbish by golf playing, pub hanging expats, and it's obvious some of you need to get out of their caves and talk to the supporters of PT.

The reasons are always the same, Mr T was the first guy to care about us.

That is why we support him and PT.

Can some one tell me why there are so many poor people after all Thaksin did for them?

Are there no poor people where you come from?

Next.

Sorry, I'm not ready for "next", following such a lame response.... would you care to actually answer the question?

[patjem]

Avoided the question....

[patjem]

Where else have we seen that act performed recently?

[animatic]

Bkkorupcountry' timestamp='1310482349' post='4554393'

Kindly share your credentials if you want people to believe you. Otherwise, we would probably be better off believing someone who has made a fortune that far exceeds the net worth of all TV members combined.

=

And everyone knows how he achieved that, so kindly talk some sense.

However he achieved it, he couldn't have done so without brains. On the other hand, anyone (with or without a whole or half a brain) can say, Believe me.

He was fortunate to have married someone far richer and smarter than himself. SHE arranged it; or at least her family did. They don't tend to see these these thing as corruuption, but their right, for being "higher" sorts of people.. Makes me wonder why you're talking about Thaksin and business at all. Surely you knew that.

Yes of course, but nevertheless, there is undoubtedly cunning and intelligence between the years. However KKvampire would have us believe him just because he says so and had not shown us why we should

:

Conversely

However Bkkorupcountry would have us believe him just because he says so and had not shown us why we should.

Kettle teapot. etc

[animatic]

'bobmac10' timestamp='1310382165' post='4551377'

Look... you anti T *flame removed*.

Wake up, the policies of Thaksin of paying minimum guaranteed prices brought real tangible benefits to Thai farmers.

The rich Chinese grain buyers have always controlled the prices and kept the rural poor in debt to them for many many years.

Also, low cost micro loans enable farmers to purchase equipment to enable them to be more efficient and more productive.

Simple yet meaningful policies which the rural poor remember.

That is why he has so much support in the country, not just in Isaan.

As soon as the Dems got back in, the old ways came back, farmers screwed by the big buyers.

You can pontificate until the cows come home, but you can't change the reality of the situation.

The Dems have always looked after the big players and the government pen pushers who couldn't give a rat's about the rural poor,

I read all this rubbish by golf playing, pub hanging expats, and it's obvious some of you need to get out of their caves and talk to the supporters of PT.

The reasons are always the same, Mr T was the first guy to care about us.

That is why we support him and PT.

Thanks for calling people twits. Very mature.

1. The rice pledging scheme was originally supposedly to remove the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune for Thai rice farmers. however, it quickly became a higher than market rates vote winner, which is effectively taking taxes from people who pay tax (like me), and gifting it to people who produce rice. Very quickly, this became a robber baron game of obtaining rice from neighbouring countries at a lower rate, not growing it, then selling it into the pledge scheme. In addition, it encouraged volume rather than quantity, and yet also created a market distortion with the Thai government being unable to sell the rice profitably and so billions of tons were wasted; from 2003 to 2009, Thai rice exports dropped (not grew, dropped) 30%.

in the heady days of 2008, Mingkwan (PPP) talked of a rice cartel, with promises of 15,000b per ton, and didn't sell the stockpile of rice he had then because at that time PPP had already been buying at that sort of price, while the market price was well below that, kindly landing the next government with a huge stockpile, and a bunch of farmers growing bad quality rice. In the end, I would guess the long suffering Thai tax payer ended up paying for a bunch of rice which has been left to rot somewhere.

The current crop guarantee scheme, no doubt, is in theory less profitable for farmers. Any time when you don't pay 15,000b for a ton of rice and instead pay market rates (currently about 9,000+ baht) the farmer ends up with less.

However, the reality is MOST of the benefit of crop pledging goes to insiders, not farmers. Many of those insiders are connected politicians. The entire tax paying base of Thailand is effectively giving a subsidy that is NOT needed to encourage substandard rice farmers to keep working (at a guess 30% of it) and 70% is a gift to the people who run provincial businesses connected to the pledging scheme.

IT IS A SCAM.

Micro credit; the TDRI have already demonstrated that the microcredit scheme of TRT was questionable; without doubt worth trying but not anywhere near complete or running smoothly; the architect of it told me face to face he could not consider it under any criteria to be a success, and commented that the reason Grameen bank and the like worked was it took way more time than a single massive shunt to make microcredit a success ,and the implementation was too rushed, done without pre agreed goals or objectives, and had increased household debt for many without a resultant increase in productivity to service it. YES, this is one of the policies I most liked TRT for at least having a go, but I cannot believe it could be held up as any sort of a success story when it was so clearly more of a bribe than a fund, and with so few success stories to hold up in the entire TRT period 2001-2006 (if there were many stories, the TRT PR machine would have found them and promoted them heavily).

As for TRT's massive rural popularity; let me know how strong they are in....

Chonburi

Suphanburi

Southern Isaan

Anywhere south of Phetburi

Awful lot of rural people in those areas.....

As you are obviously also Thai, let me just say this.

The rest of the world, in a strongly functioning democracy, the role of government should be to provide a safety net for the poor. No one should be left behind. Education, healthcare, access to a fair job, security, free speech, food and water, etc.

It should not there to allow certain selected poor professions (such as say rice farmers) to profit unjustly from market distortions, while other professions (e.g. the majority of Thais who work in factories etc) subsidise these initiatives.

Anyhow, for all the claims that Thaksin helped the rural poor so much, you would expect in 5 years that affluence jumped up substantially, and at least the amount of wealth distribution changed with the rural poor getting much more with all these ideas executed. You'd expect a huge jump in 2002-2003 at least.

So while the richest few in Thailand such as the Shinawatra clan tripled their wealth in 2001 - 2005 period.....alledgedly (they do like suing people for saying stuff like that); did the rural poor also more than triple theirs? No.

In fact, if we look at worldbank poverty stats, the time at which (from the period available 1981 - 2004) we can see the GINI coefficient actually improving far more from the period 1992 - 1998 (which is when Thailand started to see major industrialisation and shifting to the city) with actually a best measure in 1998 which TRT's various schemes still had not managed to replicate by 2004 which was pre oil prices ramping up. And yes, agreed 1998 was a crash...albeit one somewhat orchestrated or accidentally presided over by former TRT deputy PM and former PT big wig Chavalit "big Jiew".

We do see an ongoing reduction in number below the poverty line since 1981...again hard to see a major real change when Thaksin stepped in. Maybe you need more data for it, I do admit what i have to work with is skant.

Tellingly, if we look at the deciles, instead what we really see is actually that 1998 vs. 2004 we are seeing the top decile dropping to their lowest in 1998, but then again building back up.

This big shift we might expect to see...of equality....it simply isn't there.

At least not in the data available. And most income and so on stats bear that out.

http://iresearch.wor.../povcalSvy.html

On the other hand....we can look at tax used to pay for the schemes run to date. Middle class (about 5-7 million) pay most of the tax in Thailand coming from income source (consumption, luxury, etc taxes excluded). When the Shinawatras avoided paying tax by buying shares at 1 baht then 24 hours later selling them at 47.5 baht per share, without any tax paid, they and the others that do this are effectively shifting money from the middle upper portion of the income curve to the top decile, rather than redistributing down to the lower deciles. When you take into account the TRT approach to helping people get out of poverty is effectively taking the tax baht that they don't pay and gifting it to the poor in these various schemes, you can start to understand why trying to build the country into a nation of entrepreneurs is unlikely to succeed when they are getting simultaneously screwed over to collect tax, and getting few benefits from the government back.

As long as Thais view the government as 'Por Liang' then this mindset (which is how a 5 year old thinks a country can be run) will keep getting repeated again and again.

And as the middle class get more and more tired of paying for idiocy like gifting rice farmers an extra 50% of the price simply for being 'nice Thai rice farmers' then you can understand why they are willing to get angry and not play all nice like they are supposed to.

Apparently, being pro business makes me one of the ammartaya.

Ironic, being that I come from a family of illiterate rice farmers innit.

Clearly you are a scholarly chap, reads a lot etc but the essential ingredient missing here is the contact with the real Thai rural poor with whom I mix and meet daily.

i have never seen any instance of rice farmers profteering from the guaranteed price scheme, in fact it's been a mechanism which allows them to break the stranglehold of the rice traders, with whom they are forced to sell and then buy seed later at exorbitant prices on credit. This has been the way for years, not having sufficient cash flow to pay when they need to and sell when the prices are better. The profiteering would almost certainly have been done by those with the ability and the business contacts to arrange such deals, i.e. rice traders, not small land holders who number in the millions.

They barely have enough money to pay for the staples in life let alone send children to highschool, pay for a motorbike, build a decent house etc.

The micro loans scheme which I have witnessed has been a resounding success. water pumps, spray equipment, Kubota powered implements have all enabled farmers to increase their productivity and provide some relief from the back breaking toil of hand digging, pumping etc.

This is the reality. You might like to find fault by accentuating the odd scam here and there, but the overwhelming majority of farmers have been able to improve their lot in life honestly, with the help of these schemes.

Thaksin was the first politician to realise the untapped support that could,be gained if this section of the Thai populace could be mobilised, and he was right.

Despite his not paying tax, (and of course all the other squillionaires in Thailand do) it didn't stop this rural majority getting their micro loans and guaranteed price.

The Democrats, who have clung on to power through coalitions for so long I can't remember, unpopular with the majority but impossible to get rid of, did not think that they would have to try harder to win their support.

The rest they say is history.

Thailand has a history of feudalism, and it isn't that long ago, in the country especially, where there was zero hope for the poor, to achieve any financial independence.

Those with the power liked it that way, and that mentality still exists. The born into privilege Thais couldn't care less about the unwashed masses, ( the way they are parodied on the television soap operas is a clue) and it will take a long while until they achieve real equality. However, as the Thais stumble their way, experimenting with democracy and suffering military coups, one thing is becoming clear, they like having a say in the way their country is run, and if that means they want a PT government, then we need to respect that.

Despite all you scholars giving them fatherly lectures about how bad Mr T is, I don't believe they are as dumb as you think. They understand the big boys are all corrupt, (not just one side) but at least they are getting some recognition and seeing some small improvement in their lives. That is the feed back I am getting.

Well, I f I read this correctly an educated Thai national spells it out like it is in real time and you come back with some horse Sh*t that they got some watts, pumps, some farming equipment Yadii Yadii Ya. None of the Taksinomics has not had any real long term positive impacts on the rural folks you hang out with. You brush off corruption like it is dust on your hands and say that these people aren't stupid and that they know what is going on. Sir/madam they are idiots at best.

Milt, sorry your post is not going to be read by the millions who voted for PT. And if it was, what chance of convincing them?

Do you honestly believe you know better and they would listen to you?

This was an historic time in Thailand's history, the voters have waited years to re-elect a government thrown out in a coup.

you have to accept Milt, get over it and move on.

You have started by insulting me,

and then insulting one of the most well connected and well traveled Thais I have ever personally met. He also is someone who crosses class borders easily, and is a genuinely warm and caring human being, besides being very well informed. There is a difference between first hand sources and reading scholarly tomes, and if you can't tell the difference, play nice, it makes it easier to take any of your points half seriously.

MILT was quite right in his assessment.

I suggest you start being nicer because you are clearly WAY out of your depth in this one.

Edited July 13, 2011 by animatic

[animatic]

Where else have we seen that act performed recently?

TVF list of multiple vanished bad actors?

[animatic]

Can some one tell me why there are so many poor people after all Thaksin did for them?

I could say 'he only had five years (2001 - 2006)', but since k. Thaksin has promised a few months ago 'I'll make all rich in six months', that would be a bit of a poor excuse, now wouldn't it ?

They are poor and there is still Traffic in Bangkok.

Thaksin 'Winning" like Charlie Sheen.

But they fixed the cracks in the Swampy runways anyway in spite of him insisting there could be any..

[bobmac10]

You have started by insulting me,

and then insulting one of the most well connected and well traveled Thais I have ever personally met. He also is someone who crosses class borders easily, and is a genuinely warm and caring human being, besides being very well informed. There is a difference between first hand sources and reading scholarly tomes, and if you can't tell the difference, play nice, it makes it easier to take any of your points half seriously.

MILT was quite right in his assessment.

I suggest you start being nicer because you are clearly WAY out of your depth in this one.

I guess someone will have to break the news to you, this is a democratic forum and it doesn't belong to you or your ilk.

If you cannot accept a view which disagrees with your view of Thai politics then perhaps that is why you are so prickly.

It isn't personal oh mighty one, it's just your views are perhaps more representative of yesterdays and not of todays.

Thailand is changing and the old guard are having to move out.

get with the program.

Edited July 13, 2011 by soundman
Fixed quote tags.

[Ricardo]

Giving workers a 50% raize from 200 to 300 Baht a day will mean inflation will be 50%. In the end no one wins. There is only one problem

Thailand will have less exports. That means less money coming into the country. That means unemployment will increase.

Hint ... labour-costs are only one of the economic-inputs, so a 50% rise in the labour-rate would not mean a 50% rise in inflation.

And anyway Thaksin now says that only Bangkok-workers will get the 300B, other parts of the country will still be on less, which is odd if his objective is to assist the lower-paid poor-people of Isaan, it appears to mean that he is happy to continue to under-pay them, compared to the richer city-slickers ! Yay for Thaksinomics !

However I agree that setting an internal-price for rice, which is way over the market-price elsewhere, seems unlikely to help exports. Perhaps we need to be re-educated, so that we can fully-understand the brilliant mind & strategy, of Dear Leader ?

Can some one tell me why there are so many poor people after all Thaksin did for them?

They must be the ones who failed to vote for TRT !

Edited July 13, 2011 by Ricardo

[whybother]

Giving workers a 50% raize from 200 to 300 Baht a day will mean inflation will be 50%. In the end no one wins. There is only one problem

Thailand will have less exports. That means less money coming into the country. That means unemployment will increase.

Hint ... labour-costs are only one of the economic-inputs, so a 50% rise in the labour-rate would not mean a 50% rise in inflation.

And anyway Thaksin now says that only Bangkok-workers will get the 300B, other parts of the country will still be on less, which is odd if his objective is to assist the lower-paid poor-people of Isaan, it appears to mean that he is happy to continue to under-pay them, compared to the richer city-slickers ! Yay for Thaksinomics !

<snip>

Anywhere in the world you get wage discrepancies between cities and rural areas. That is usually because the cost of living is less outside the cities.

The advantage of the rural areas being paid less is that it gives more incentive for companies to set up there, which means more jobs for the rural people, and no need to move to the cities just to get work. Moving to the city just to get paid more (for most industries, anyway) doesn't work because it costs more to live - you don't actually end up with more money.

[Bkkorupcountry]

He was fortunate to have married someone far richer and smarter than himself. SHE arranged it; or at least her family did. They don't tend to see these these thing as corruuption, but their right, for being "higher" sorts of people.. Makes me wonder why you're talking about Thaksin and business at all. Surely you knew that.

Yes of course, but nevertheless, there is undoubtedly cunning and intelligence between the years. However KKvampire would have us believe him just because he says so and had not shown us why we should

:

Conversely

However Bkkorupcountry would have us believe him just because he says so and had not shown us why we should.

Kettle teapot. etc

Pray tell, what would I have you believe?

[Bkkorupcountry]

Can some one tell me why there are so many poor people after all Thaksin did for them?

Are there no poor people where you come from?

Next.

Sorry, I'm not ready for "next", following such a lame response.... would you care to actually answer the question?

If it was a genuine question, then this forum is not the place to start a discourse on economics.

If it wasn't (which I strongly believe to be the case), then it's just another immature attempt to try and score some cheap points. is this what this forum has become? I get more intellectual stimulation sitting next to some drunken farang in a Pattaya bar.

[bobmac10]

She has promised rice farmers a minimum price of 15,000 Baht per tonne, much higher than the current market price of less than 10,000 Baht.

AFP appear to have missed Ms Yingluck's off-the-cuff promise to raise the price to 20,000 Baht per tonne, which will be even-more damaging, to the country's finances & rice-exports.

The farmers might get 1/2 of the 15k

and the other 5 if it happens goes right to the millers and transporters on the top.

Eventually the farmers will catch on again and the truck loads of rice dumped in front of ministries will start up again.

But by then the economy will be in the hopper.

For now investors appear largely unfazed: Thai stocks surged 4.5 percent last week as news of a decisive win by Puea Thai in the July 3 vote raised hopes of a return to political stability after years of turmoil.

The Thai baht also rose sharply and extended its gains after Yingluck, who is widely seen as Thaksin's political proxy, said the value of the currency would continue to be determined by market forces.

The observant member will no doubt have to choke on this fact.

To all the anti T brigade,......... time to move on and get with the program.