Latest Avian Influenza Outbreaks & Updates

[guyinthailand]

Excerpts from: The cost of bird flu hysteria, March 17, 2006

MARC SIEGEL, M.D.

© Copyright 2006 Globe Newspaper Company.

Dr. Marc Siegel, associate professor of medicine at NYU School of Medicine, is author of ''False Alarm: The Truth About the Epidemic of Fear."

“The swine flu fiasco of 1976 is an example of the damage that can be done from fear of a mutated virus that can theoretically affect us. More than 1,000 cases of paralysis occurred from a rushed vaccine given to more than 40 million people in response to a pandemic that never came.

Why provoke the public to see a potential pandemic in end-of-the-world terms? A pandemic simply means people in several areas having a disease at the same time -- but it may be hundreds rather than millions. The last flu pandemic, in 1968, killed 33,800 Americans, which is about the flu's toll in an average year. We don't need to panic in advance for that kind of pandemic.

Cooking poultry kills any flu 100 percent of the time, yet the fear of H5N1 bird flu is already so out of control in Europe that 46 countries have banned French poultry exports after a single turkey was found to be infected. France, fourth in the world in poultry exports, is already hemorrhaging more than $40 million a month.

Imagine what would happen if a bird in the United States gets H5N1 bird flu. At the rate we are going, the fear of birds will be so great that our own poultry industry, number one in the world, is likely to be in shambles. We already have this problem with mad cow disease, where a single sick cow that is not even in the food chain makes people very nervous, despite the fact that it is almost impossible to get mad cow disease from eating beef.

Flu is worthy of our concern. But concern can lead to long term preparation whereas panic can be far more virulent and costly than the bird flu itself.”

Dr. Marc Siegel, associate professor of medicine at NYU School of Medicine, is author of ''False Alarm: The Truth About the Epidemic of Fear."

Dear Jim,

The reason why the Flu was so successful in 1918 was primarily the "terrain", namely the millions of immuno-deficient hosts and hostesses starved and stressed by 4 years of war.

Secondarily, one can speculate that the 1918 flu strain may also have been a "new" recombinant to the 1918 population and thus more successful than a more established seasonal strain may have been. As I found in 1968, flu, unlike practically all other animal viruses, has multiple RNA segments, equivalent to multiple chromosomes and thus can readily form new recombinants - the reason why we have seasonal flus, but have measles, mumps, polio, pox etc. only once in a lifetime.

Thirdly, the odds that the Centers for Disease Control alias World Health Organization ever predicts an epidemic prior to its arrival are not good: They have predicted in past several years numerous epidemics or "pandemics" such as the flu, the hanta-virus, anthrax, the rotavirus, the Ebola virus, the West Nile virus, "mad cow" epidemic, the Sars-virus epidemic, an epi-pandemic of "random, eg. heterosexual non-drug user-AIDS" - but none of these ever materialized (see, Inventing the AIDS Virus, Regnery publishing, Washington DC, 1996). The last one that came close to an epidemic was polio in the 1950s and that was not predicted by American public health scientists.

Fourth, the currently hyped prospective Flu pandemic has long missed its chances. It has been hyped almost daily in the San Francisco Chronicle since November. But all that happened was a dead chicken in Nigeria, a hamster in Germany, two sick (dead?) kids in Turkey, a euthanized swan in Sweden, several dead or euthanized chicken in Iraq (Yes Iraq!!) etc. That is not the pattern of a potential killer microbe. All "new" killer viral or microbial epidemics of the past have spread exponentially within weeks to months and then declined exponentially owing to the induction of immunity or death of susceptible hosts - take Albert Camus' "Plague" as a classical example.

The current Flu propaganda is thus a mix of ignorance and self-interest and an exploitation of general ignorance by the CDC, WHO, the vaccine, pill and test-kit manufacturers of our universities and pharma companies, and of our "science" journalists, who need to fill their daily columns - and must sell their aging vaccine stocks before they decompose and their Tamiflu pills before the summer.

But despite hyping in dozens of microbial Godots - no Godot has come since polio.

People are just too well nourished these days, and thus have optimally maintained immune systems, for microbes to attack more than just the fringes of the ever growing human herd. That in fact is their historical share. The 150 million+ Flu pandemics are hype for fund raising by the ever more costly science/health armies in search for real enemies. Their success is based on the invisible monsters of the microbial epidemics of the times, when nutrition lacked vitamines, proteins and sanitation or was lacking all together - and on the never failing microbial and viral horror phantasies of our science writers, politicians and Hollywood producers.

And now I have given you a lecture, although I had intended to feed you just a few convenient lines...

Hope you like it and don’t mind that I cc it several colleagues who have asked but didn't get a good answer, because I was too "busy" to write.

Regards,

Peter

(Peter H. Duesberg, Ph.D. is a professor of Molecular and Cell Biology at the University of California, Berkeley and is the author of the book, “Inventing the AIDS Virus”).

[londonthai]

just 4 days ago another person died in Thailand - it's not the USA, but one day it might be.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?sh...413&hl=bird

[Dr. Shoshana]

H5N1 has now been documented in a dog in Thailand, adding to the list of mammals that have been infected. Pigs, cats and even tigers have been documented with H5N1. As the virus moves into mammals, transmission to humans becomes easier. And there are no surveillance programs for mammals. It is thought that the worldwide 1918 bird flu, known as the Spanish Flu, became a pandemic when it transferred from pigs to humans.

For your latest up to the minute news and tracking information on bird flu as well as practical things you can do to protect yourself and your loved ones, go to <snip>.

/Mod Edit - drop link to commercial site removed.

Edited October 16, 2006 by Jai Dee

[londonthai]

doctor, cure thyself and stop putting links to your tamiflu sell pages

[Jai Dee]

Rayong prepares for bird flu this winter

Rayong Governor Sunthon Rattanawaraha (สุนทร รัตนวราหะ) chaired the workshop on a bird flu prevention plan today (Oct 16).

Rayong Public Health official Wiwat Wiriyakitja (วิวัฒน์ วิริยกิจจา) revealed that avian influenza, or bird flu, has plagued many parts of the world and afflicted a number of people. He said the virus is likely to be mutated into a more severe strain.

The workshop aimed at reviewing measures to cope with the deadly disease as winter season in Thailand is approaching. Consequently, if the bird flu breaks out in the coming season, all relevant agencies in the province will be fully prepared to tackle the situation.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 16 October 2006

[John K]

BANGKOK, Jan 15 (Reuters) - Thailand has suffered its first outbreak of the H5N1 bird flu virus in six months, an Agriculture Ministry official said on Monday after a rash of outbreaks in Vietnam and four human deaths in Indonesia this year.

"The lab results confirmed that some ducks in the northern province of Phitsanulok have been infected with H5N1 bird flu virus," Livestock Department chief Pirom Srichan told Reuters.

"We have culled about 1,900 ducks in the area."

The last outbreak of the virus in poultry in Thailand was late July.

[LaoPo]

Thailand hit by bird flu outbreak

" Thailand has suffered an outbreak of the deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu, its first for six months.

The virus was confirmed following the deaths of around 100 ducks in the northern Phitsanulok province. "

From:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/6262765.stm

LaoPo

[wrazoru]

Yesterday, i found a dead black bird (about 20cm in length) on my balcony on the 2nd floor. Strangly, i got there during the rain in the morning as I was on the balcony beforehand.

Today, i see that there are 3 dead birds (smaller & a more typical species) stuck to some chick-wire type guard on the house roofing today, near their nest.

I'm very concerned about them being bird flu contagious.....Does anyone have any recommendations??

[peter991]

Four human cases of bird flu found in UK

Four people have tested positive for a mild strain of bird flu, British authorities said.

The cases - which are not the feared H5N1 strain, but the less dangerous H7N2 subtype - were reported after poultry died at a small farm in north Wales.

Tests were performed on nine people associated with the farm, and the Health Protection Agency said in a news release that four people had tested positive for the H7N2 strain of the virus.

Three of the nine were hospitalised, but have since been discharged, the agency said.

The H7 subtype of bird flu is believed to be less virulent than H5, but it has in the past caused human cases, and was responsible for a large outbreak in the Netherlands.

In that outbreak in 2003, there were 89 mild cases of H7N7, and one person died.

Most of the cases in the Netherlands were conjunctivitis, a mild eye infection.

"The mortality rate of H7 viruses is not on the order of H5N1," said Dr Michael Perdue, a World Health Organisation bird flu expert.

Experts estimate that nearly half or more of all people who contract H5N1 die.

While H7 viruses tend to cause milder illnesses in humans, they still have the potential to ignite a global flu outbreak and should be watched.

"A low pathogenic H7 virus might not be picked up as easily as a highly pathogenic virus," said Perdue, explaining that the mild symptoms of a H7 case might be mistaken for ordinary flu, causing experts to lose valuable time tracking an emerging pandemic.

Like all flu viruses, H7 evolves constantly. Other bird flu subtypes have also caused illnesses in humans.

Surveillance in Europe for all bird flu viruses has greatly increased in recent years.

While global health experts have been focused on H5N1 as the strain most likely to cause the next flu pandemic, it is also possible that another subtype, such as H7, could ultimately be responsible.

"I'd hate to predict anything with bird flu," said Perdue.

The farm came to the attention of British authorities after a number of chickens died.

Dr Christianne Glossop, the chief veterinary officer for Wales, said in a statement they had tested positive for H7N2.

A one-kilometre exclusion zone was put in place around the farm, and the remaining chickens have been slaughtered.

The Welsh health authorities said that in all but one of the four human cases the virus had spread from poultry. The other case may have been transmitted from person to person.

"Although the number of people involved is very small, we could be dealing with some spread of the H7 flu virus within the household setting," said Dr Marion Lyons, a communicable disease specialist with the Welsh health service. "We are treating this possibility very seriously."

Officials are now following up all close contacts of the people who were ill as a precaution.

http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=94939

Edited May 25, 2007 by sbk
cite source please

[Jai Dee]

Bird-flu outbreak detected in Phichit

Phichit - Bird-flu outbreak has erupted in Taphan Hin district, which is now declared an outbreak-hit zone.

Taphan Hin district chief Tatchapong Paekwamdee Thursday said lab tests had confirmed that the H5N1 virus killed a number of local chicken there.

"As of now, 90 fowls within one kilometre radius from where the infection was detected have been culled," he said.

He added that local livestock officials had now been spraying disinfectants in chicken coops.

Source: The Nation - 28 September 2007

[Jai Dee]

Lab comfirms no bird flu virus found in Phichit

The Governor of Phichit, Mr. Preecha Ruangchan (ปรีชา เรืองจันทร์), affirms that the laboratory result has found no H5N1 virus in the remains of poultries raised in the province.

Mr. Preecha discloses that 12 districts in Phichit have been declared as surveillance zones, following the death of many chickens without causes which has led to the culling of more than 800 poultries to limit the spreading of the virus.

Mr. Preecha reveals that test results from the collected carcasses sample has found no avian flu viruses. He then ensures the general public of safety in consuming poultries. The Phichit Governor has also instructed officials to keep monitoring the situation closely.

Transporting wild ducks are disallowed in the province during this period and all cock-fighting rings clubs have been closed temporarily.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 03 October 2007

[londonthai]

lab tests had confirmed that the H5N1 virus killed a number of local chicken there.

there was bird flu some 5 days ago - and now appeares that it suddenly disappeared.

puzzled

[John K]

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The H5N1 bird flu virus has mutated to infect people more easily, although it still has not transformed into a pandemic strain, researchers said on Thursday.

The changes are worrying, said Dr. Yoshihiro Kawaoka of the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

"We have identified a specific change that could make bird flu grow in the upper respiratory tract of humans," said Kawaoka, who led the study.

"The viruses that are circulating in Africa and Europe are the ones closest to becoming a human virus," Kawaoka said.

Recent samples of virus taken from birds in Africa and Europe all carry the mutation, Kawaoka and colleagues report in the Public Library of Science journal PLoS Pathogens.

"I don't like to scare the public, because they cannot do very much. But at the same time it is important to the scientific community to understand what is happening," Kawaoka said in a telephone interview.

The H5N1 avian flu virus, which mostly infects birds, has since 2003 infected 329 people in 12 countries, killing 201 of them. It very rarely passes from one person to another, but if it acquires the ability to do so easily, it likely will cause a global epidemic.

All flu viruses evolve constantly and scientists have some ideas about what mutations are needed to change a virus from one that infects birds easily to one more comfortable in humans.

Birds usually have a body temperature of 106 degrees F, and humans are 98.6 degrees F usually. The human nose and throat, where flu viruses usually enter, is usually around 91.4 degrees F.

"So usually the bird flu doesn't grow well in the nose or throat of humans," Kawaoka said. This particular mutation allows H5N1 to live well in the cooler temperatures of the human upper respiratory tract.

H5N1 caused its first mass die-off among wild waterfowl in 2005 at Qinghai Lake in central China, where hundreds of thousands of migratory birds congregate.

That strain of the virus was carried across Asia to Africa and Europe by migrating birds. Its descendants carry the mutation, Kawaoka said.

"So the viruses circulating in Europe and Africa, they all have this mutation. So they are the ones that are closer to human-like flu," Kawaoka said.

Luckily, they do not carry other mutations, he said.

"Clearly there are more mutations that are needed. We don't know how many mutations are needed for them to become pandemic strains."

[Prakanong]

The best animal model for this is the ferret apparently closest we can get to human for flu ;-)

I attended a very good talk on monday from a world reknowned expert in the pre-pandemic vaccine who is in the region to present to governments asbout their plans and options.

The best option proposed is 2 doses of pre-pandemic flu vaccine followed by a dose of the "Mutated" flu vaccine wahtever it is when its ready a few months after the outbreak of a pandemic.

The two doses cut down on the amount of mutated flu vaccine required ie 1 dose instead of 2 and this should be used with antvirals if required.

Problem is cost - not all will be given it in countries buying (except maybe Switzerland)

The model he demonstrated was an outbreak in Korat with different scenarios. No pre-pandenic vaccine, vaccine and antivirals etc etc

The difference in infection rates also made a vast difference to outcomes ie 1:1.4 or 1.1.7

[londonthai]

are those pre-pandemic vaccines available anywhere and how much?

I have a large stock of tamiflu - now expired, but it cost me a lot of money so keep it frozen when the time comes.

[Prakanong]

are those pre-pandemic vaccines available anywhere and how much?

I have a large stock of tamiflu - now expired, but it cost me a lot of money so keep it frozen when the time comes.

I do not think they are sold privately - sold in bulk to government's and given to NGO's etc.

No matter how they slice and dice it rationing will take place - there is just not enough to go around. Its to but time for the vaccine with the exact make up to be produced. There are not that many governments buying into ti yet - the UK has bought a % to cover who they decide to give it to, Switzerland covers all its poulation and the US has a % also.

Singapore and Japan I think might be close to going for it - it was the Vietnam strain being used but now more likely the Indonesian strain.

The guy in the presentation last week said if travel restrictions were going to work it was 99% - that will just not happen.

[londonthai]

hope india at some stage will start doing them - despite all the licensing, patents etc - and save millions of lifes.

[Prakanong]

hope india at some stage will start doing them - despite all the licensing, patents etc - and save millions of lifes.

Patents do not really come into it unless you are talking about the proprietry adjuvants which reduce the amount of antigen required so can produce double doses in the same time as others produce their amounts - these adjuvants are for sale to any govt that wants to produce their own.

As for India producing the capacity required then thats just not going to happen in the pre-pandemic stage and ramping up capacity once a pandemic has started is not really feasible either - it will take months to produce the right vaccine. Cell based vaccines such as the ones from Baxter might be quicker than egg based flu vaccines cutting time down to say 2 months instead of 3 or 4 - do they have the capacity though?

The point is someone needs to invest - this is a public health issue and not really for private company's shareholders. Yes some of them are going into it but its just not possible on the scales really required.

Governments tend to do a cost benefit analysis on this and most are not buying it - figuratively and literally.

[Jai Dee]

Livestock Dept steps up measures to prevent bird flu during winter

The livestock development office in Buriram province is gearing up measures to prevent bird flu pandemic during the coming winter season. Checkpoints have been set up on roads leading to neighboring provinces and districts.

Provincial Livestock development official Pojphirat Niemjui (พจน์ภิรัชต์ เนียมจุ้ย) reveals that the authorities are closely monitoring the bird flu situation as the H5N1 virus easily spreads during winter and wild birds are evacuating to the province in large numbers. Buriram has more than five bird-spotting sites which were announced as avian influenza-prone areas.

The officials say the authorities have sprayed disinfectants and conducted x-ray scans throughout the province. Measures for bid flu were tightened at border districts to prevent poultry smuggling.

However, no bird flu has been reported in Buriram.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 10 October 2007

[londonthai]

it sounds more like a panicking or trying to spend their budget before the end of the year (to have bigger budget to splash around the next year).

spraying desinfectants where there is no desease is like taking unnecesery antibiotics - the viruses are building their resistance to the medicines and when they are used the next time they are not effective.

setting up checkpoints on roads to the province is more like muscle exercise and controlling the local population rather than controlling the non existant virus

[Jai Dee]

Livestock Development Department steps up measures to tackle bird flu during winter

Director-General of the Livestock Development Department, Sakchai Sriboonsue (ศักดิ์ชัย ศรีบุญซื่อ), reports that the department has imposed stringent measures to track bird flu spread during winter to prevent the pandemic’s impacts on the economy.

Mr Sakchai says although the bird flu situation in Thailand has much improved, the department has decided to step up measures to tackle the virus which spreads more easily during winter. As for migrating birds, the department has cooperated with the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment to monitor the birds and outline preventive measures.

The director-general also expresses concerns over the lower Northern region, including the provinces of Phitsanulok, Nakhon Sawan, and Phichit, as there are a number of open-range duck farms in the areas.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 29 November 2007

[Jai Dee]

New bird flu outbreak found in Nakhon Sawan

A bird flu outbreak is found at a farm in Nakhon Sawan province, Livestock department said on Wednesday.

Livestock officials rushed to Sri Thai Farm in Chumsaeng district which housed 14,000 chickens.

All chickens would be culled and examined.

Source: The Nation - 24 January 2008

[Jai Dee]

H5N1 virus found in Nakorn Sawan

Livestock official of Nakorn Sawan province Somboon Srisuthep (สมบูรณ์ ศรีสุเทพ) revealed that hundreds of chickens in Choomsaeng (ชุมแสง) district’s chicken farming area have been discovered carrying the H5N1 avian influenza virus.

The chicken farming area contains over 60 thousand chickens divided into 4 buildings, each housing around 15 thousand fowls. The infected chickens were all found in the second building after tests were conducted when many of the chickens started to die. Samples from the farm were sent to be confirmed in the Northern regions research headquarters.

The province has ordered the quarantining of the area and also the destruction of, and sanitation of many chickens from the farms. A warning has also been issued to surrounding poultry farmers to be aware of the travel of the disease as well as the ordering of a ban on transportation of all avian animals from the province.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 24 January 2008