Tropical Depression Six-E forms between Mexico and Hawaii, no threat to land

[News_Editor]

Tropical Depression Six-E forms between Mexico and Hawaii, no threat to land

2011-08-16 11:38:09 GMT+7 (ICT)

MIAMI (BNO NEWS) -- Tropical Depression Six-E formed between the Pacific coast of Mexico and the Hawaiian islands on early Monday afternoon, forecasters said, but there is no immediate threat to land. The system is expected to soon become a tropical storm.

Forecasters at the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) have been following the weather system since Friday afternoon when it emerged as a weak area of low pressure located about 975 miles (1596 kilometers) southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula in Mexico. It slowly became better organized over the next few days.

"The small low pressure system, located near the intertropical convergence zone about midway between the southern tip of Baja California and the Hawaiian islands, continues to produce a compact area of deep convection," said NHC hurricane specialist Robbie Berg. "Easterly shear which has been impacting the system has decreased today, and a small band of convection has developed around the southern and southwestern side of the circulation. Satellite intensity estimates are now [between 29 to 40 miles (46 to 64 kilometers) per hour], and the system is therefore designated as a depression at this time."

As of 8 p.m. PDT on Monday (0300 GMT Tuesday), the center of Six-E was located about 1,690 miles (2715 kilometers) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. It is moving toward the west at a speed near 9 miles (15 kilometers) per hour, steering it into the Central Pacific later this week.

Maximum sustained winds of Six-E are near 35 miles (55 kilometers) per hour, with higher gusts, according to forecasters. "Global models still forecast the vertical shear to decrease during the next couple of days," NHC hurricane specialist Todd Kimberlain said. "On the other hand, the cyclone will gradually be moving over marginally warm waters and will begin to ingest a relatively drier and more stable air mass from the north. The latter two factors would likely offset any potential for significant intensification, especially given the current organization of the system."

Kimberlain said Six-E will likely acquire tropical storm status for a short time before an abrupt increase in southeasterly shear and sub-26 Celsius (78.8 degrees Fahrenheit) waters on Thursday, which should hasten the demise of the tropical cyclone. "Given the increasingly hostile environmental conditions later in the forecast period, it would not be surprising to see the cyclone degenerate into a remnant low sooner than what is currently indicated," Kimberlain noted.

And while some weather models indicate a track towards the Hawaiian islands, Six-E is not expected to last that long to pose any threat to Hawaii. If Six-E does become a tropical storm as expected, it will be named Fernanda.

Six-E is the sixth storm of the 2011 Eastern Pacific hurricane season, following Hurricane Eugene which formed far off the Pacific coast of Mexico on July 31. As the system stayed far from land, Eugene caused no damage or casualties.

According to figures released in May, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is expecting a below normal hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific this year. The outlook calls for 9 to 15 named storms, with five to eight becoming hurricanes and one to three expected to become a major hurricane (category 3 or higher).

An average Eastern Pacific hurricane season produces 15 to 16 named storms, with eight to nine becoming hurricanes and four becoming major hurricanes. The Eastern Pacific hurricane season runs from May 15 through November 30, with peak activity from July through September.

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