Thai Govt At Work To Bring Back Thaksin

[webfact]

BURNING ISSUE

Govt at work to bring back Thaksin

By Somroutai Sapsomboon

The Nation

Though everybody knows that the Yingluck Shinawatra government will do what it can to help the prime minister's brother, it is rather surprising that it has started working on this mission even before declaring its policies in Parliament.

However, whether this government moves quickly or slowly to help fugitive former PM Thaksin - who was last in Thailand three years ago - will somehow determine its future.

The questions began cropping up when Thaksin's scheduled trip to Japan started hitting the headlines. The government initially claimed that it was the Japanese who had invited the fugitive. That is true, except that this invitation was extended a long time ago.

This time though, Thaksin has been issued a special visa to enter Japan because the Thai government asked for it. Without the government's request, Thaksin would not have been allowed entry because Japan prohibits visitors facing a jail term of more than one year.

Japan's chief Cabinet secretary, Yukio Edano, confirmed that Thaksin had indeed been given a special visa after Tokyo received a personal request from Yingluck's government. "In light of the request from the government and various other related considerations, we decided to issue him a visa," he said.

Bangkok pushed for Thaksin's visa, saying that it would help improve bilateral ties as well as benefit the victims of the double disasters that hit Japan in March, Edano said.

Once Thaksin's trip to Japan was confirmed, the government announced that its policies, to be declared to Parliament next week, would include pertinent amendments to the Constitution as an "urgent agenda".

One of the main aims of these amendments is to allow Thaksin to return to the country without having to serve a jail term and for this to happen, Article 309 of the 2007 Constitution has to be removed.

Article 309 approves the action of the 2006 coup-makers and its consequences, including Thaksin's cases. As long as the Article exists, amnesty for Thaksin will not be possible. However, if it is removed Thaksin can be given amnesty and even returned the money that was seized by the state.

Coupled with reports of Thaksin's movements abroad, his trips to countries that he was banned from earlier and his plan to represent the country during these trips, the government is repeatedly asked what it is doing to help Yingluck's brother, who is believed to be the de-facto prime minister.

The pro-Thaksin camps have two different views about helping the fugitive former premier - quietly and gradually, or bringing him back as quickly as possible.

Those who believe in the gradual approach say that if the government focused on solving the people's problems first and expedited their policies, the public would be pleased with its achievements and feel it can be relied upon. Then bringing Thaksin back would be face little resistance.

However, those pushing for the quick approach say that the Pheu Thai-led government should seize this opportunity while its popularity ratings are still high, especially as it is uncertain how long this administration would be able to stay on.

Samak Sundaravej's government, which was led by People Power Party, an incarnation of Thaksin's banned Thai Rak Thai Party, is a perfect example. The government waited to make charter amendments until the end, but before it could do anything, the premier was removed and the party dissolved - it never had a chance.

So, it might be a better idea for this government to do what it wants as soon as possible.

Of course, both the sayings - "Rome was not built in a day" and "make hay while the sun shines" - can apply to the situation, though the trick is deciding which is the best.

The public is keeping an eye on things and it is up to Yingluck's government to make the next move.

-- The Nation 2011-08-18

[moe666]

So far so good closer and closer to dear brothers return

[ccarbaugh]

So far so good closer and closer to dear brothers return

The wedding is in 4 months - chaimai?

[TheWalkingMan]

I wonder what gift he will bring to the wedding. Maybe a nice kimono from Japan?

TheWalkingMan

[whybother]

I wonder what gift he will bring to the wedding. Maybe a nice kimono from Japan?

Or a burqa from where he spends most of his time ...

[Colin Yai]

I wonder what gift he will bring to the wedding. Maybe a nice kimono from Japan?

Or a burqa from where he spends most of his time ...

Yeah, but lets have it right it was as transparent as spring water what the "plot" was right from the very time that Yinglucks name was put forward ,any one thinking any different is in urgent need of a brain transplant,LOL.

[Bakseedaa]

So far so good closer and closer to dear brothers return

The wedding is in 4 months - chaimai?

Miitary Coup next month..... any bets..?

[Thaddeus]

I wonder what gift he will bring to the wedding. Maybe a nice kimono from Japan?

Or a burqa from where he spends most of his time ...

Which will then be declared as "The Best Burqa in Chiang Mai"

[Who, me ?]

So far so good closer and closer to dear brothers return

The wedding is in 4 months - chaimai?

Miitary Coup next month..... any bets..?

Well, we've heard about a military coup for a year or so now.

Nothing happened yet. The reds are in power, the PM is a joke, Surapong is already working for his master, so that Thaksin will be on his merry way back here sooner than we can think, and still we are here, looking at this country on its way to be the laughing stock of the world....

[Beetlejuice]

Surprise, surprise, shock, horror.

I predicted that Mr Thaksin would return in about a year, but it appears he maybe back sooner.

I wonder what our dear Yellow shirted friends will make of this?

Like the song; I Can See Trouble Ahead.

[kamluan]

the only thing i see happening now is prices going up....even my 5 bath chicken went to 10 bath!!!!

How could people be so stupid and let this new goverment rule...i feel ashamed.

[hammered]

So far so good closer and closer to dear brothers return

The wedding is in 4 months - chaimai?

Miitary Coup next month..... any bets..?

Lets hope not. It would potentially set off utter chaos. I dont know of anyone who would support that, and a lot of the people I know dont even vote PTP, but accept that Thaksin is going to be part of the future of a country that is going to have differences of opinion on many things, which will have to be resolved through democracy. Quite a sophisticated opinion really. Then again most people whether they like Thaksin or not have far far more important things to worry about, and one trend I notice among Thai friends is that everyone thinks he is coming back and so it might as well be sooner rather than later as once he is back it ends all the games that go on while he trots round the world and one lot try to keep him away and the other try to bring him back. I am actually amazed that every non-PTP person I know right down to the most ardent PADer thinks he will be back and not serve time

[jayboy]

So far so good closer and closer to dear brothers return

The wedding is in 4 months - chaimai?

Miitary Coup next month..... any bets..?

Lets hope not. It would potentially set off utter chaos. I dont know of anyone who would support that, and a lot of the people I know dont even vote PTP, but accept that Thaksin is going to be part of the future of a country that is going to have differences of opinion on many things, which will have to be resolved through democracy. Quite a sophisticated opinion really. Then again most people whether they like Thaksin or not have far far more important things to worry about, and one trend I notice among Thai friends is that everyone thinks he is coming back and so it might as well be sooner rather than later as once he is back it ends all the games that go on while he trots round the world and one lot try to keep him away and the other try to bring him back. I am actually amazed that every non-PTP person I know right down to the most ardent PADer thinks he will be back and not serve time

Good analysis.

I must say I'm reminded again of how much I viscerally disliked Thaksin when he was in power, particularly his heavy handed self promotion - no sense of making a sacrifice for a cause (ie a quiet exile for a few years concentrating on his business interests).

One's also reminded of the old fable of the frog and the scorpion.The latter seeks a lift from the former across a river.Half way across the scorpion stings the frog who in his dying breath asks why the scorpion had done this given that it must now drown."It's in my nature" said the scorpion.In other words I doubt whether Thaksin can help himself, a prisoner of his own character.

So is a battle royal in prospect? A deeply flawed man against a deeply flawed elite in a country built on fairy tales and lies.All rather depressing.

[OzMick]

the only thing i see happening now is prices going up....even my 5 bath chicken went to 10 bath!!!!

How could people be so stupid and let this new goverment rule...i feel ashamed.

Got a great laugh the other day - the red-to-the-core g/f complains that pork is going up, but Yingluk will fix that soon. I asked her whether that was before or after all the piggery workers got a pay rise. She was a picture of confusion - what has one got to do with the other?

I wonder if PTP wants another economics adviser.

Edited August 18, 2011 by OzMick

[Pi Sek]

Miitary Coup next month..... any bets..?

Lets hope not. It would potentially set off utter chaos. I dont know of anyone who would support that, and a lot of the people I know dont even vote PTP, but accept that Thaksin is going to be part of the future of a country that is going to have differences of opinion on many things, which will have to be resolved through democracy. Quite a sophisticated opinion really. Then again most people whether they like Thaksin or not have far far more important things to worry about, and one trend I notice among Thai friends is that everyone thinks he is coming back and so it might as well be sooner rather than later as once he is back it ends all the games that go on while he trots round the world and one lot try to keep him away and the other try to bring him back. I am actually amazed that every non-PTP person I know right down to the most ardent PADer thinks he will be back and not serve time

Good analysis.

I must say I'm reminded again of how much I viscerally disliked Thaksin when he was in power, particularly his heavy handed self promotion - no sense of making a sacrifice for a cause (ie a quiet exile for a few years concentrating on his business interests).

One's also reminded of the old fable of the frog and the scorpion.The latter seeks a lift from the former across a river.Half way across the scorpion stings the frog who in his dying breath asks why the scorpion had done this given that it must now drown."It's in my nature" said the scorpion.In other words I doubt whether Thaksin can help himself, a prisoner of his own character.

So is a battle royal in prospect? A deeply flawed man against a deeply flawed elite in a country built on fairy tales and lies.All rather depressing.

Agree with both of you. A coup would be catastrophic to all concerned parties - PTP, the Dems, the army, the public, the country. The Dems could try and condemn it a lot harder than they did last time (they just said it's undemocratic but it's happened now so let's just play along) and refuse to work with the Junta in any respect, as Hammered suggested yesterday was their biggest mistake post-2006, and could try and put a positive spin on it from their point of view, but I don't think that would help them or win PTP hearts so I'd have to write that off as a Democrat pipedream.

However, I fear that, in the days leading up to and following Thaksin's return, Thailand will not be a peaceful country. I live in the South, I don't think from the opinions of the Thais you've both heard from that either of you do. There are many people here talking blood. I don't know if they are selectively oblivious to the actions to bring Thaksin back with impunity, but many - especially in Suratthani where the Suthep-Jatuporn divide is the most prominent (Suthep is Mr. Surat, Jatuporn is a Surat fugitive disowned by his own mother on public radio) - just do not believe it can or will happen. And if it does...

I've heard this from too many people (personally, hundreds - and I don't claim to know everyone in the South!) to dismiss it as a few hardline opinions.

[noahvail]

the only thing i see happening now is prices going up....even my 5 bath chicken went to 10 bath!!!!

How could people be so stupid and let this new goverment rule...i feel ashamed.

Got a great laugh the other day - the red-to-the-core g/f complains that pork is going up, but Yingluk will fix that soon. I asked her whether that was before or after all the piggery workers got a pay rise. She was a picture of confusion - what has one got to do with the other?

I wonder if PTP wants another economics adviser.

If you get the job, will you please explain to them that price controls won't work? Been tried in a lot of countries, and never worked. Of course, This is Thailand, and things work differently here

[Pi Sek]

the only thing i see happening now is prices going up....even my 5 bath chicken went to 10 bath!!!!

How could people be so stupid and let this new goverment rule...i feel ashamed.

Got a great laugh the other day - the red-to-the-core g/f complains that pork is going up, but Yingluk will fix that soon. I asked her whether that was before or after all the piggery workers got a pay rise. She was a picture of confusion - what has one got to do with the other?

I wonder if PTP wants another economics adviser.

Very poignant! But Yinglak has a magic wand, and who needs an understanding of (really basic) macroeconomics when you have a magic wand?

[backtonormal]

So far so good closer and closer to dear brothers return

The wedding is in 4 months - chaimai?

Miitary Coup next month..... any bets..?

Lets hope not. It would potentially set off utter chaos. I dont know of anyone who would support that, and a lot of the people I know dont even vote PTP, but accept that Thaksin is going to be part of the future of a country that is going to have differences of opinion on many things, which will have to be resolved through democracy. Quite a sophisticated opinion really. Then again most people whether they like Thaksin or not have far far more important things to worry about, and one trend I notice among Thai friends is that everyone thinks he is coming back and so it might as well be sooner rather than later as once he is back it ends all the games that go on while he trots round the world and one lot try to keep him away and the other try to bring him back. I am actually amazed that every non-PTP person I know right down to the most ardent PADer thinks he will be back and not serve time

Yes hes coming back, nailed on and rock solid, put your house on it. All the people who voted for Peau Thai knew he was coming back and accepted it. Being convicted for corruption ( abeit by a military controlled judiciary) is no barrier to running the country but being part of the slaughter and attempted slaughter of 100's of Thai citizens surely is.

[whybother]

Yes hes coming back, nailed on and rock solid, put your house on it. All the people who voted for Peau Thai knew he was coming back and accepted it. Being convicted for corruption ( abeit by a military controlled judiciary) is no barrier to running the country but being part of the slaughter and attempted slaughter of 100's of Thai citizens surely is.

So, what you're saying is that Thaksin won't be running the country because of his involvement in the slaughter and attempted slaughter of Thai citizens during his "war on drugs"?

[OzMick]

the only thing i see happening now is prices going up....even my 5 bath chicken went to 10 bath!!!!

How could people be so stupid and let this new goverment rule...i feel ashamed.

Got a great laugh the other day - the red-to-the-core g/f complains that pork is going up, but Yingluk will fix that soon. I asked her whether that was before or after all the piggery workers got a pay rise. She was a picture of confusion - what has one got to do with the other?

I wonder if PTP wants another economics adviser.

If you get the job, will you please explain to them that price controls won't work? Been tried in a lot of countries, and never worked. Of course, This is Thailand, and things work differently here

Are you insane? Not me, the girlfriend !!!!!!

Price controls worked great in the USSR - empty shelves and a booming black market. That could never happen here though.

[OzMick]

Yes hes coming back, nailed on and rock solid, put your house on it. All the people who voted for Peau Thai knew he was coming back and accepted it. Being convicted for corruption ( abeit by a military controlled judiciary) is no barrier to running the country but being part of the slaughter and attempted slaughter of 100's of Thai citizens surely is.

Why did the PPP government have a "military controlled judiciary"? Was it because they rejected the bribe?What happened to "I will accept the decision of the court." - oh yeah, that was before the donuts got spilled wasn't it?

[Bkkorupcountry]

the only thing i see happening now is prices going up....even my 5 bath chicken went to 10 bath!!!!

How could people be so stupid and let this new goverment rule...i feel ashamed.

Got a great laugh the other day - the red-to-the-core g/f complains that pork is going up, but Yingluk will fix that soon. I asked her whether that was before or after all the piggery workers got a pay rise. She was a picture of confusion - what has one got to do with the other?

I wonder if PTP wants another economics adviser.

So you're happy with a partner of such obviously differing levels of intellect?

[jayboy]

However, I fear that, in the days leading up to and following Thaksin's return, Thailand will not be a peaceful country. I live in the South, I don't think from the opinions of the Thais you've both heard from that either of you do. There are many people here talking blood. I don't know if they are selectively oblivious to the actions to bring Thaksin back with impunity, but many - especially in Suratthani where the Suthep-Jatuporn divide is the most prominent (Suthep is Mr. Surat, Jatuporn is a Surat fugitive disowned by his own mother on public radio) - just do not believe it can or will happen. And if it does...

I've heard this from too many people (personally, hundreds - and I don't claim to know everyone in the South!) to dismiss it as a few hardline opinions.

Interesting and you are right to assume this is not an area (Southern thinking) familiar to me.

Some questions if you have time.

What exactly do you mean that Suthep is Mister Surat? How exactly does he control his manor and is there a genuine loyalty extending beyond patronage?

What exactly is the objection of ordinary Southerners to Thaksin's return? Is it related to his statements when in power he would discriminate against areas that wouldn't vote for his party? If so, I can understand that.

I knew Jatuporn was from Surat but does he have a genuine local political base? If so what does it consist of? You say he is a fugitive disowned by his mother, but many would argue he is in many senses a cleaner and more honourable figure than Suthep, surely?

[rubl]

...

I knew Jatuporn was from Surat but does he have a genuine local political base? If so what does it consist of? You say he is a fugitive disowned by his mother, but many would argue he is in many senses a cleaner and more honourable figure than Suthep, surely?

I disagree. Ever since I saw k. Jatuporn on the main stage at Ratchaprasong with a Ghandi T-shirt and shouting 'we will fight to the last drop of our blood' I do not think k. Jatuporn an honorable person.

[rixalex]

You say he is a fugitive disowned by his mother, but many would argue he is in many senses a cleaner and more honourable figure than Suthep, surely?

Cleaner and more honourable?!

I don't think you would find an ounce of cleanliness or honour in either individual, and arguing which has more is like arguing which disease is more pleasant, scabies or herpes.

[hammered]

Lets hope not. It would potentially set off utter chaos. I dont know of anyone who would support that, and a lot of the people I know dont even vote PTP, but accept that Thaksin is going to be part of the future of a country that is going to have differences of opinion on many things, which will have to be resolved through democracy. Quite a sophisticated opinion really. Then again most people whether they like Thaksin or not have far far more important things to worry about, and one trend I notice among Thai friends is that everyone thinks he is coming back and so it might as well be sooner rather than later as once he is back it ends all the games that go on while he trots round the world and one lot try to keep him away and the other try to bring him back. I am actually amazed that every non-PTP person I know right down to the most ardent PADer thinks he will be back and not serve time

Good analysis.

I must say I'm reminded again of how much I viscerally disliked Thaksin when he was in power, particularly his heavy handed self promotion - no sense of making a sacrifice for a cause (ie a quiet exile for a few years concentrating on his business interests).

One's also reminded of the old fable of the frog and the scorpion.The latter seeks a lift from the former across a river.Half way across the scorpion stings the frog who in his dying breath asks why the scorpion had done this given that it must now drown."It's in my nature" said the scorpion.In other words I doubt whether Thaksin can help himself, a prisoner of his own character.

So is a battle royal in prospect? A deeply flawed man against a deeply flawed elite in a country built on fairy tales and lies.All rather depressing.

I dont think the elite have anywhere the numbers or momentum on their side. Abhisit was right when he said it was a let the people decide election although no doubt he expected a different outcome. Ordinary people are sick of it all and just want it over from what I see. Momentum is very much with the Thaksin-red alliance and the irony is the elite may need Thaksin to control or at least limit the reds, and that saviour role may fit with his flawed character. I mostly stay in Chonburi (not Pattaya) which was a total Dem area before this election with strong yellow anti-Thaksin sympathies. That has all changed. The ris eof the reds and shrinking of the yellows with more than a few going from yellow straight to red has been very apparent. Phalang Chon basically played the vote us to keep the Dems out card to win many red votes and initially those who formed Phalang Chon were going to join Newin's mob until realising it would have been an election disaster.. That is just the rise of the reds in one previously assumed yellow province at the expense directly of the Dems. It is clear where momentum is. It may not be in the Dem stronghold of the south but even in Bangkok they only won the popular vote by a couple of percent and many many Dems wins were by a handful of votes. It is very apparent where all that momentum is

The biggest worry is that so many of the elite seem to think if they say something it is right because they said it. If they say Thaksin is evil and not coming back.... The Democrat sheer panic today in threatening to impeach all manner of people may also indicate they didnt see the PTP strategy coming and that heads are exploding over it in elite land. It could be worrying times

[jayboy]

...

I knew Jatuporn was from Surat but does he have a genuine local political base? If so what does it consist of? You say he is a fugitive disowned by his mother, but many would argue he is in many senses a cleaner and more honourable figure than Suthep, surely?

I disagree. Ever since I saw k. Jatuporn on the main stage at Ratchaprasong with a Ghandi T-shirt and shouting 'we will fight to the last drop of our blood' I do not think k. Jatuporn an honorable person.

Revolutionaries are not to everyone's taste.I only half jest but calling for the destruction by whatever means of a corrupt and greedy elite is not in itself dishonourable, misconceived perhaps.On this forum there has over the last few months been a hate campaign against Jatuporn which has verged on the psychotic, but the reality is he has a very distinct political viewpoint which can be rejected, embraced , modified or ignored.

Whereas Suthep is just the usual provincial mafia boss, though more corrupt and unlikeable than most - without any discernible political philosophy other than personal aggrandizement.His association with Abhisit was toxic and was part of the reason the Democrats performed so poorly at the last election.

[rubl]

...

The Democrat sheer panic today in threatening to impeach all manner of people may also indicate they didnt see the PTP strategy coming and that heads are exploding over it in elite land. It could be worrying times

The Dem's are fulfilling their opposition position in a democratic manner. They target obvious, almost self-confessed persons, not 'all manner of people'.

Still with the current government spending so much time on k. Thaksin rather than country and it's people we are indeed in for worrying times.

[otherstuff1957]

Good analysis.

I must say I'm reminded again of how much I viscerally disliked Thaksin when he was in power, particularly his heavy handed self promotion - no sense of making a sacrifice for a cause (ie a quiet exile for a few years concentrating on his business interests).

One's also reminded of the old fable of the frog and the scorpion.The latter seeks a lift from the former across a river.Half way across the scorpion stings the frog who in his dying breath asks why the scorpion had done this given that it must now drown."It's in my nature" said the scorpion.In other words I doubt whether Thaksin can help himself, a prisoner of his own character.

So is a battle royal in prospect? A deeply flawed man against a deeply flawed elite in a country built on fairy tales and lies.All rather depressing.

Very good analysis. I've thought of that same fable myself when looking at Thaksin's actions. He often seems to be unable to restrain himself from acting, even when action is not in his own self interest.

It's ironic to consider that he would probably be in the exact same position as he is in now, if he had just quietly lived in exile and just funded PT and not the Reds.

[rixalex]

Revolutionaries are not to everyone's taste.I only half jest but calling for the destruction by whatever means of a corrupt and greedy elite is not in itself dishonourable, misconceived perhaps.

It certainly is dishonourable if the intention, after having destroyed it, is to simply replace it with another corrupt and greedy elite; which incidentally, as far as i can see, is precisely what has indeed happened.

Whereas Suthep is just the usual provincial mafia boss, though more corrupt and unlikeable than most - without any discernible political philosophy other than personal aggrandizement.His association with Abhisit was toxic and was part of the reason the Democrats performed so poorly at the last election.

Completely agree.