The (Near) Imminent Collapse Of The (Southern ) Euro

[Naam]

Tick, tick, tick. Gold has kept going higher for more than 10 years and the many amateurs in this world keep saying it is a bubble set to burst.

tick, tick, tick... some expert investors lost shirt and shoes and later starved during the 20 years (1980 till 2000) when gold produced only losses not to mention the 31 years (1980 till 2011) when gold did not yield a single inflation adjusted copper penny.

needless to mention that non of the "real" experts bought any gold between 1980 and 2000, they all waited for the "golden" times starting 2001

[gregb]

Tick, tick, tick. Gold has kept going higher for more than 10 years and the many amateurs in this world keep saying it is a bubble set to burst.

tick, tick, tick... some expert investors lost shirt and shoes and later starved during the 20 years (1980 till 2000) when gold produced only losses not to mention the 31 years (1980 till 2011) when gold did not yield a single inflation adjusted copper penny.

needless to mention that non of the "real" experts bought any gold between 1980 and 2000, they all waited for the "golden" times starting 2001

The ticking stopped a while back. Now you should be hearing "bong...bong...bong".

Lucky for those gold investors then that the waiting is now over, fiat currencies around the world are imploding along with the collapse in their underlying economies, and the "experts" are suddenly going to find that their "expert" advice no longer has much value, given that the axioms on which it is based are turning out to be rather hallucinatory.

Of course, Rome took a couple of centuries to collapse completely, so nothing is going to happen fast, but the point is our global industrial civilization is now entering a non recoverable downward spiral. That isn't to say people can't get lucky with traditional investments, but on aggregate the conventional economy is now a money losing proposition. Tangible assets are the place to be from now on. Their supply is limited and the demand is fixed or increasing. Fiat currency like the Euro has exactly the opposite dynamic going for it over the long term.

Doesn't take an "expert" to know where things are headed. Just someone who isn't so invested in the past that they can't see the future for what it is.

[theblether]

Tick, tick, tick. Gold has kept going higher for more than 10 years and the many amateurs in this world keep saying it is a bubble set to burst.

tick, tick, tick... some expert investors lost shirt and shoes and later starved during the 20 years (1980 till 2000) when gold produced only losses not to mention the 31 years (1980 till 2011) when gold did not yield a single inflation adjusted copper penny.

needless to mention that non of the "real" experts bought any gold between 1980 and 2000, they all waited for the "golden" times starting 2001

The ticking stopped a while back. Now you should be hearing "bong...bong...bong".

Lucky for those gold investors then that the waiting is now over, fiat currencies around the world are imploding along with the collapse in their underlying economies, and the "experts" are suddenly going to find that their "expert" advice no longer has much value, given that the axioms on which it is based are turning out to be rather hallucinatory.

Of course, Rome took a couple of centuries to collapse completely, so nothing is going to happen fast, but the point is our global industrial civilization is now entering a non recoverable downward spiral. That isn't to say people can't get lucky with traditional investments, but on aggregate the conventional economy is now a money losing proposition. Tangible assets are the place to be from now on. Their supply is limited and the demand is fixed or increasing. Fiat currency like the Euro has exactly the opposite dynamic going for it over the long term.

Doesn't take an "expert" to know where things are headed. Just someone who isn't so invested in the past that they can't see the future for what it is.

Too many experts, too many rash conclusions as to the end of the West as we know it. The West will re-trench, sort itself out, and start competing heavily again. It has no choice but to do so......and it will do so.

All of these so called Tiger economies of the east have fundamental flaws built into them too. Japan has stagnated for 20 years, China is on the cusp of a social and demographic explosion, Singapore is at risk of overheating, we all fear the unspoken issue in Thailand, South Korea is a client state of the US due to the problems with the North, Vietnam is relatively well placed however it is following the same model as China in many regards, Indonesia is on the cusp of a terrifying population boom and Islamic insurgencies are affecting the future prospects of the Philippines and Indonesia too.

Blah de blah de blah de blah, at the end of the day you don't know what's going to happen, neither do I. No one does........the Human Animal has a resilience and capacity to surprise like no other.

For what it's worth ( and by that, it's worthless ), here's my prediction. The US will go through one or two more Presidencies then realize that they have no choice but co-operate, once they do that the US economy will soar away again, and it will continue to easily be the biggest economy in the World.

Just when the going looks best for China they will fall straight over a cliff of serious domestic unrest and the demographic time bomb which is sneaking up on them.

Japan will choke to death over the next twenty years, and South Korea will soar past them.....

If South Korea can ever unify with the North they will become the third largest economy in the world.......easy.

Vietnam will shadow box the life out of Southern China, and as long as they have political stability they will be fine to say the least.

The Philippines will continue to be a basket case...........it's greatest export being people

Indonesia will become the most volatile power in the region......with plenty of resources behind them and a surging economy, allied to serious internal threats, and unsustainable population growth.

Laos and Cambodia will nibble away at the edge of Thailand and Vietnam.......being landlocked the best they can hope for is decent progress, that's all.

Malaysia will be a stable and growing economy.......

Singapore will become even more controlling and paranoid, while it eventually overheats due to serious land shortage issues.........property prices will be unaffordable and it will be the most stressful place on Earth to live.

Burma will become the new Thailand..........

Thailand will become the new?????????

Did I forget anybody?.....oh yes, 50% of the Australian population will be employed guarding the borders from illegal immigration, as the population of Indonesia is estimated to grow to a whopping 492 million in the next 40 years.........

The European core states will get closer.........and they will eventually take over full control of the PIG economies.........resulting in a Tuetonic grip on public finances, which will be a good thing for Europe.......

The UK will drop out of the top 10 economies in the world by GDP...........but will still be a seriously wealthy and influential country per head of the population

Hmmm, I've missed someone............oh yes, the real World Superpower of the next 50 years.......there will be 100 million people turning 18 years of age within 5 years in India. If they can sort out some of the graft, and promise not to start a nuclear war with Pakistan, then this English speaking highly educated country, with a current middle class population larger than the entire population of the US will take some beating. They are scheduled to gave a population of 1.7 billion by the year 2050, so cheap labour a plenty there.

Don't forget though................everything I've just wrote is worthless, so ignore it.

[theblether]

Tick, tick, tick. Gold has kept going higher for more than 10 years and the many amateurs in this world keep saying it is a bubble set to burst.

tick, tick, tick... some expert investors lost shirt and shoes and later starved during the 20 years (1980 till 2000) when gold produced only losses not to mention the 31 years (1980 till 2011) when gold did not yield a single inflation adjusted copper penny.

needless to mention that non of the "real" experts bought any gold between 1980 and 2000, they all waited for the "golden" times starting 2001

Correct.......

[endure]

South of the border I believe it's even worse, but in the day of politcal correctness gone crazy I must be a racist if disagree with mass immigration in this country, you can't even ask for a black coffee nowadays without being labelled racist!

You do have a point about immigration but undermine your own credibility by making nonsensical remarks about black coffee.

'Nonsensical'. Not really, In London schools are no longer to use the term blackboard, it now has to be referred to as a chalkboard and when teaching pupils about the Back Death teachers are instructed to only use the term 'Bubonic Plague'.

Do you have any evidence you can point me to please? (other than the Daily Mail).

[smiling mantis]

Thailand is a good place to ride out the impending doom that is hanging over the western world. Better to be in a place where this is a subsistence economy and food to eat.

For the short term, this is true. We will miss the ensuing riots and the crime and we won't be made to stand in line for bread. At least, those of us who thought to bring over assets and aren't depending on the ATMs for their cash.

Then the Thais start to see us as a burden, because so many of us now can't meet minimum deposit amounts or pay our rent. So we see far fewer visas issued or renewed and far greater enforcement of visa laws, e.g., directives issued to local police to routinely demand and inspect passports. Airfare will be almost certainly be prohibitively expensive, so those caught without good papers or whose applications for renewal/extension are denied probably end up going home by boat, after long internments in prison-like conditions.

You guys are just talking about the tip of the iceberg. It isn't just the financial system that is in mid-collapse. The culture at the root of western civilization is spent. The governments are almost certainly going to go full totalitarian, partly as compense, but mostly because the opportunity simply is there for those in the position to take advantage. That means more war, and not of the kind where we pull punches or where guys over 50 can count on not getting drafted. The Soviet Union breaks up and it's a coin-toss as to how their military reacts, and we got lucky and it came up heads. Doesn't have to be the same way when it gets dramatic in Washington, and here now I think that having two-and-a-half centuries of uninterrupted civilian rule over the military suddenly becomes a bad thing.

[endure]

Don't forget though................everything I've just wrote is worthless, so ignore it.

Taiwan?

[theblether]

Don't forget though................everything I've just wrote is worthless, so ignore it.

Taiwan?

Oh aye.....Taiwan........I forgot about them.........anyway I did say that everything I wrote was worthless and you were just to ignore me didn't I ???

[elliss]

the euro is like a turd in a sewer

cant go back

cant get out of the mess

more <deleted> ahead .

:jap:

[theblether]

Thailand is a good place to ride out the impending doom that is hanging over the western world. Better to be in a place where this is a subsistence economy and food to eat.

For the short term, this is true. We will miss the ensuing riots and the crime and we won't be made to stand in line for bread. At least, those of us who thought to bring over assets and aren't depending on the ATMs for their cash.

Then the Thais start to see us as a burden, because so many of us now can't meet minimum deposit amounts or pay our rent. So we see far fewer visas issued or renewed and far greater enforcement of visa laws, e.g., directives issued to local police to routinely demand and inspect passports. Airfare will be almost certainly be prohibitively expensive, so those caught without good papers or whose applications for renewal/extension are denied probably end up going home by boat, after long internments in prison-like conditions.

You guys are just talking about the tip of the iceberg. It isn't just the financial system that is in mid-collapse. The culture at the root of western civilization is spent. The governments are almost certainly going to go full totalitarian, partly as compense, but mostly because the opportunity simply is there for those in the position to take advantage. That means more war, and not of the kind where we pull punches or where guys over 50 can count on not getting drafted. The Soviet Union breaks up and it's a coin-toss as to how their military reacts, and we got lucky and it came up heads. Doesn't have to be the same way when it gets dramatic in Washington, and here now I think that having two-and-a-half centuries of uninterrupted civilian rule over the military suddenly becomes a bad thing.

The appetite for war is zero in Europe. Europeans will do anything, absolutely anything to avoid it. There is zero chance of war in Europe between the main contenders, zero.

Incidentally the Soviet Union broke up about 20 years ago.

[Spee]

Tick, tick, tick. Gold has kept going higher for more than 10 years and the many amateurs in this world keep saying it is a bubble set to burst.

tick, tick, tick... some expert investors lost shirt and shoes and later starved during the 20 years (1980 till 2000) when gold produced only losses not to mention the 31 years (1980 till 2011) when gold did not yield a single inflation adjusted copper penny.

needless to mention that non of the "real" experts bought any gold between 1980 and 2000, they all waited for the "golden" times starting 2001

Correct.......

Yes, I agree, Naam has one of the few salient points in this thread.

Let's also not overlook one other key factor. The problems with the Euro (as with the USD) are not due to the currency itself, but rather the government mismangement of the currency and the bound-to-fail socialist political policies which use transfer of wealth to try to obtain equality of outcome rather than equality of opportunity. If the people wish for things to get better, they need to sack their politicians and force the new ones to change the welfare state, nanny state policies which have caused these problems in the first place.

[ExpatOilWorker]

Great post and some valid views on the regions long term economic and demographic changes. What about military tension? War?

How will Russia play its cards?

Edited December 2, 2011 by astral
No need to quote the entire post. Just pick out the relevant points, please - Astral

[gregb]

It all comes down to whether you can see the larger picture of energy and resource depletion and how that causes the collapse of complex civilizations, or you insist that all of our "progress" has simply been because we are so much smarter than all those who went before us. The mistake everyone makes is believing we are special. We aren't.

Your outlook may have validity in the short term, but you have completely neglected the relentless decline in energy that will result in a deindustrialization as time marches forward. This can't be fixed. Economics is irrelevant in this context. Nobody can say exactly how or exactly when it will happen, but it is an inescapable conclusion that barring some kind of alien intervention or seemingly magical technology that doesn't yet exist, several hundred years from now the world population will be substantially smaller and the level of industrialization dramatically less.

Since it is obvious we have to get from here to there, the only thing left to recognize is exactly when that slide is going to start. I maintain it already has, and it will accelerate for a while longer until a new, lower energy plateau is reached in the next few decades. But don't ask me for specifics, as I am only looking at patterns of previous civilizations and assuming we will follow a similar curve down. That doesn't mean I or anyone else can say how it will happen, but it may be possible to assign statistical probabilities to various events that may give a slight advantage in charting a path for the future.

How many financial "experts" have done much studying of how and why complex civilizations collapse? Because that is what is needed for the future.

Edited December 2, 2011 by astral
No need to quote the entire post. Just pick out the relevant points, please - Astral

[ExpatOilWorker]

You might find this interesting: http://www.theoildrum.com/

[StreetCowboy]

You might find this interesting: http://www.theoildrum.com/

As I understand it, the reason for the volatility of oil prices is that it is so cheap to produce in so many places. So when demand is less than their output, there is no real floor to the price, while the uncertainty is such that it is not worth investing in production, even when prices far exceed the cost of production in more costly areas, because of the uncertainty regarding future demand.

When the cheaper producers run out of oil, then other reserves will become economic. The cheaper producers seek to maximise the price that they get, to delay that day.

One day bio-fuels (more likely, bio-polymers) will become economic, which will be bad news for the poor of the world, whose food crops will be displaced...

If the price of fossil fuels rises enough, we may be forced to use nuclear power to support biofuels... there is plenty of technology that is uneconomic at today's oil price, but may not be so when the price rises.

That's my nostradamean prediction for the future.

SC

[Spee]

That's my nostradamean prediction for the future.

Fortunately for all of us, Nostradamus' "predictions" were more myth than reality, the king of the "Chicken Littles."

In any case, what does the fluctuation of fuel prices have to do with the European Union mismanagement of the Euro and massive government over-spending (with the same being true of the US government)? Others in this thread have pointed out the eventual outcomes .... the need for massive cuts in entitlement programs .... the likelihood of government bonds being devalued by either default or inflation .... the risk of inflation from excessive printing of currency.

[Mosha]

Re 2050, by then we won't be producing enough food to feed the planet.

[thaibeachlovers]

Re 2050, by then we won't be producing enough food to feed the planet.

Sorry, but that's a myth. If nothing else, humans could learn to live on processed seaweed.

More likely is that most of humanity will have been condemned to a life of peasantry by exhausting all the affordable natural resources.

[JurgenG]

IMO this crisis is a good thing, it will strengthen the Euro zone

A lot a needed measures that will never have been accepted during good times are now passed. The German are now able to impose some well needed discipline, with a liitle help from the French. They play hard ball but I think it's going to pay off at the end. Don't forget, it's the only country in Europe with the experience of the integration of two opposite economies, East and West Germany. And, as now, strong opposition from abroad from countries that was not so happy to see a reunified Germany back.

And we got rid of Berlusconi !

I'm not sure that I really understand what all the fuss is about. What's the difference between reneging on your loans in Euros, or devaluing your currency to destroy your creditors' value?

What's the difference between deflation and devaluation, other than that the latter cripples your pensioners? Of course, in the Euro, the governments may be forced to cut pensions if they are more generous than the government can afford - but at least the pensioners' own frugal savings will not be inflated away to poverty.

For too long, governments have been buying votes with their childrens' earnings... but now it turns out the children were not successful enough to pay off all those commitments...

Let's hope I get a better return on the school fees.

SC

What I meant is :

Q: What options have European officials considered?

A: Things that would have been unthinkable just weeks ago. One option would be to have countries cede control of their budgets to a central authority. That authority would stop countries from spending beyond their means. There has also been talk of forming an elite group of euro nations to guarantee each other's loans. It would require fiscal discipline from any country that wants to join.

http://news.yahoo.co...-184734526.html

Some other interesting points in this article

Edited November 30, 2011 by JurgenG

[theblether]

Great post and some valid views on the regions long term economic and demographic changes. What about military tension? War?

How will Russia play its cards?

My greatest fear is Indonesia, the population growth forecast is staggering, and the size and spread of the country allied to it's mineral wealth will make it a very considerable player in the next few years. Some parts of Indonesia are already effectively ungovernable, and this will make it the real threat to stability in the region, not China.

This instability will either manifest itself in a greater surge of Islamic radicalism, or a new surge in communist style politics. ( not necessarily communist, but socialist based ). The US has a golden opportunity at the moment to truly engage with Indonesia due to the Barack Obama connection with the country. Right now the US is should be pushing against an open and welcoming door

China does not want war of any description, they are allergic to it. If they were not allergic to it they would have invaded Taiwan long ago. The US has done a superb job of blanketing Asia with friendly nations, and the Chinese know that if they go to war against any Asian country in effect they will have to go to war with all Asia, in fact all the world. The US would jump to the defence of Japan, South Korea, and The Phillipinnes in a heartbeat. At the moment the US would have to have a think about jumping to the defence of Vietnam, but it would not be out of the question within a few years.

If China drew the US into a war, then many of the British Commonwealth countries would join in within days. The UK populace would not counter for one moment any threat to the safety and integrity of Australia, and for all the Australians love to have a go at the " Poms ", the Australians know that is true.

What I'm trying to say is an China-Asian war would quickly escalate into a World War, and that is in no ones interest. If you have any doubt about that, get a map out and identify the countries that China could invade in Asia that would elicit no response from the US. I can think of one, North Korea. So the prospects of China starting a war are zero.

China has two priorities, one is maintaining order within it's own borders, and for various reasons that is easier said than done, and two, using financial leverage as a source of wielding power. China will continue to sabre rattle while building a greater military capability, however that is all it will be, sabre rattling. get used to seeing Chinese aircraft carriers in all the oceans of the world, but they won't attack anyone in our lifetime.

Russia is a busted flush, they spent every penny that they had on military infrastructure during the Cold War, and they still couldn't get near the US. I believe it was Yuri Andropov in his role as the head of the KGB that realized that first. Apparently there was a shadow conflict between Syrian Mig's and US built F-4's during the 1982 Lebanon Conflict. There are enough ex-US fighter pilots on Thaivisa, and they will be familiar with exactly the hardware used.

Andropov knew that the Soviets had almost bust the economy building the Mig's and other military hardware, and he was devastated at how poorly they had performed. When he became President of the Soviet Union in late 1982 he resolved to find a new way forward, and between himself and his successor Konstantin Chernenko started the ball rolling to find reformers within the ranks of the Communist Party, and they uncovered Gorbachev . The rest as they say is history......however!!!

The one country in the world that desires strong leadership above all others is Russia, they're not so keen on this Democracy malarkey. Hence Putin will swing around on the magic roundabout once again and become the next President. Don't bet against this magic roundabout swinging in Putin's favour again in a few years. Russia will use it only real strength, which is the exploitation of it's mineral and fuel reserves, to wield power in the years to come. They won't start any wars either because they are now surrounded on all sides with non-friendly nations, and they don't have the ability to pursue and win a war against anybody bigger that South Ossetia.

Charisma is the key to all this, the question is will it be the charismatic peacemakers or the charismatic warmongers that will win out in the end. I'm not a great fan of Barack Obama but it is safe to say that he will become a charismatic peacemaker when he leaves office, Bill Clinton is also highly regarded and Jimmy Carter has done a quite superb job in the last 30 years. That man needs to be recognized for the work he has dome since leaving office.

Ronald Reagan was a genius, people were too fast to laugh at him but he was a genius at the only thing that mattered, playing Call My Bluff. He bluffed the life out of the Soviets with the Star Wars Initiative, and he had the best handbag swinger in history standing next to him in Maggie Thatcher. Combined with the charismatic presence of Pope John Paul ll, they created the circumstances that ended the Cold War.

However charisma can swing the other way, and the warmongers can come to the fore. The role call of dread includes Hitler, Stalin, Mao, Pol Pot and several others in the lifetime of many Thaivisa members.

So who can answer the charisma question??? not me..........the Human Animal is a funny thing, and as Harold McMillan once said........."events, dear boy, events"

Events have a funny way of turning everything upside down so once again.........everything I've written is worthless so ignore me

[theblether]

Quote

It all comes down to whether you can see the larger picture of energy and resource depletion and how that causes the collapse of complex civilizations, or you insist that all of our "progress" has simply been because we are so much smarter than all those who went before us. The mistake everyone makes is believing we are special. We aren't.

Your outlook may have validity in the short term, but you have completely neglected the relentless decline in energy that will result in a deindustrialization as time marches forward. This can't be fixed. Economics is irrelevant in this context. Nobody can say exactly how or exactly when it will happen, but it is an inescapable conclusion that barring some kind of alien intervention or seemingly magical technology that doesn't yet exist, several hundred years from now the world population will be substantially smaller and the level of industrialization dramatically less.

Since it is obvious we have to get from here to there, the only thing left to recognize is exactly when that slide is going to start. I maintain it already has, and it will accelerate for a while longer until a new, lower energy plateau is reached in the next few decades. But don't ask me for specifics, as I am only looking at patterns of previous civilizations and assuming we will follow a similar curve down. That doesn't mean I or anyone else can say how it will happen, but it may be possible to assign statistical probabilities to various events that may give a slight advantage in charting a path for the future.

How many financial "experts" have done much studying of how and why complex civilizations collapse? Because that is what is needed for the future.

I don't want to shock you but I agree with you........I don't think the decline has started yet but it should start relatively soon. ( maybe within 30-40 years ). I think it's a good thing to be honest, I think the world could rub along quite well with less industrialization. There is something morally and intrinsically wrong with plastic toys made in China being transported in massive container ships all across the world.

One lesser known fact after the 2008 financial shock was that container companies such as Maersk mothballed a lot of their container fleet, and as a result the cost of container shipping from Shanghai to the UK rose from around $1800 per container to about $4000 a container. Maersk then realized that they were making money for less work and kept their mothballed fleet off the water once demand picked up again.

So what's my point? As a direct result of the increase in shipping charge, it became too expensive to ship certain goods from China to the UK. SO !! The manufacturing of said goods was repatriated to the UK................as the cost of fuel goes through the roof, and the Age Of Oil comes to a close, I predict manufacturing will have to become more local. Only the premium brands will continue to be exported worldwide.

So!! Go open a sock factory in your home town, get a hold of some local sheep and call them Scottie Sox, Hanover Hosen, Seattle Slippers, whatever.....pure wool socks sourced and made locally. Don't always think cheap.......make them a little bit more expensive than the factory produced crap in China.......people will pay extra for locally manufactured goods........just as long as they don't fall to pieces the first time they are washed.

Localization will surely follow globalization.........

Incidentally the big difference between ourselves and the Romans / Greeks / Aztecs etc is that we have far greater access to information than they could ever dream of, that is our salvation. We are not Turkeys, we will not vote for Christmas.

I talk too much.....I'm going for a lie down

[ExpatOilWorker]

You sure have some late night bright moments and I follow your logic that war is in nobodies interest, hopefully it will stay that way.

Still I see it unlikely that China is not going to step into hot waters as they are trying to master the fine art of foreign politics, in their own region.

Laos and Burma could be 2 countries the rest of the world would not risk a WW to help.

After all, nobody did anything when Vietnam invaded Cambodia in 1975.

Edited December 2, 2011 by astral
No need to quote the entire post. Just pick out the relevant points, please - Astral

[JurgenG]

So what's my point? As a direct result of the increase in shipping charge, it became too expensive to ship certain goods from China to the UK. SO !! The manufacturing of said goods was repatriated to the UK................as the cost of fuel goes through the roof, and the Age Of Oil comes to a close, I predict manufacturing will have to become more local. Only the premium brands will continue to be exported worldwide.

So!! Go open a sock factory in your home town, get a hold of some local sheep and call them Scottie Sox, Hanover Hosen, Seattle Slippers, whatever.....pure wool socks sourced and made locally. Don't always think cheap.......make them a little bit more expensive than the factory produced crap in China.......people will pay extra for locally manufactured goods........just as long as they don't fall to pieces the first time they are washed.

IIt's been a long time since I've been involved in shipping but last week I checked some maritime freight costs from China to Europe and they are not very expensive by recent historical standards. Actually it will cost you more to truck the goods from the port of discharge to your final destination than to ship them from the factory to an European port. The major part in the transportation cost is the local transportation. A local factory won't give you any real advantage in term of price as far as transportation is concerned. The real advantage factor here is the delivery time.

But I agree with the second part of your post. Don't always think cheap. There is a demand for high quality goods. And the profits are better

Edited December 1, 2011 by JurgenG

[gregb]

But this analysis has left out one nation that does have an interest in starting a war. Or possibly starting a war through a proxy such as Israel. This would of course be the US, and the likely target of their aggressions is Iran. This would likely draw in China and Russia on the other side, because the spoils of this war are so valuable to everyone. So it could be irrelevant whether other nations want a war. The fact is in order to maintain its position as empire of the day, the US needs to guarantee its energy reserves. This means controlling Saudi Arabia and the Straits of Hormuz.

I'm sure they will try internal regime change first, but with all the sabre rattling over Iran's nuclear ambitions, one can only assume that a full scale invasion will be tried when and if that fails. To a failing empire, the danger of the war is outweighed by the danger of losing their position of global dominance. And once a war has begun, it is largely irrelevant who started it. The Chinese will invade SE Asia because they need to shut down US access to bases in the region that can easily reach them. This has relatively little to do with whether China wants a war or not.

And yes, I fully agree that a demagogue will likely arise somewhere to trigger this whole thing. But if I were a betting man I would bet he would arise in the states. The country is ripe for it, and as the economic decline continues this is only going to become more likely. As an American with family still over there, that scenario very much scares me. Should the Euro collapse and spread the contagion to the states (and there is really no realistic scenario where it is contained to Europe), it may really exacerbate this situation. I am not optimistic that we have 30 or 40 years before things get very, very bad for all of us.

Edited December 2, 2011 by astral
No need to quote the entire post. Just pick out the relevant points, please - Astral

[swisstouristpattaya]

Israel will bomb Iran next year then we go for nuclear war. Build a anti nuclear bunker like Swiss people and stock chocolate and cheese.

sent from tapatalk :-)

[Naam]

The (Near) Imminent Collapse Of The (Southern ) Euro

isn't it amazing what kind of comments the collapse of a currency generates that doesn't exist?

[thaibeachlovers]

Great post and some valid views on the regions long term economic and demographic changes. What about military tension? War?

How will Russia play its cards?

My greatest fear is Indonesia, the population growth forecast is staggering, and the size and spread of the country allied to it's mineral wealth will make it a very considerable player in the next few years. Some parts of Indonesia are already effectively ungovernable, and this will make it the real threat to stability in the region, not China.

This instability will either manifest itself in a greater surge of Islamic radicalism, or a new surge in communist style politics. ( not necessarily communist, but socialist based ). The US has a golden opportunity at the moment to truly engage with Indonesia due to the Barack Obama connection with the country. Right now the US is should be pushing against an open and welcoming door

China does not want war of any description, they are allergic to it. If they were not allergic to it they would have invaded Taiwan long ago. The US has done a superb job of blanketing Asia with friendly nations, and the Chinese know that if they go to war against any Asian country in effect they will have to go to war with all Asia, in fact all the world. The US would jump to the defence of Japan, South Korea, and The Phillipinnes in a heartbeat. At the moment the US would have to have a think about jumping to the defence of Vietnam, but it would not be out of the question within a few years.

If China drew the US into a war, then many of the British Commonwealth countries would join in within days. The UK populace would not counter for one moment any threat to the safety and integrity of Australia, and for all the Australians love to have a go at the " Poms ", the Australians know that is true.

What I'm trying to say is an China-Asian war would quickly escalate into a World War, and that is in no ones interest. If you have any doubt about that, get a map out and identify the countries that China could invade in Asia that would elicit no response from the US. I can think of one, North Korea. So the prospects of China starting a war are zero.

China has two priorities, one is maintaining order within it's own borders, and for various reasons that is easier said than done, and two, using financial leverage as a source of wielding power. China will continue to sabre rattle while building a greater military capability, however that is all it will be, sabre rattling. get used to seeing Chinese aircraft carriers in all the oceans of the world, but they won't attack anyone in our lifetime.

Russia is a busted flush, they spent every penny that they had on military infrastructure during the Cold War, and they still couldn't get near the US. I believe it was Yuri Andropov in his role as the head of the KGB that realized that first. Apparently there was a shadow conflict between Syrian Mig's and US built F-4's during the 1982 Lebanon Conflict. There are enough ex-US fighter pilots on Thaivisa, and they will be familiar with exactly the hardware used.

Andropov knew that the Soviets had almost bust the economy building the Mig's and other military hardware, and he was devastated at how poorly they had performed. When he became President of the Soviet Union in late 1982 he resolved to find a new way forward, and between himself and his successor Konstantin Chernenko started the ball rolling to find reformers within the ranks of the Communist Party, and they uncovered Gorbachev . The rest as they say is history......however!!!

The one country in the world that desires strong leadership above all others is Russia, they're not so keen on this Democracy malarkey. Hence Putin will swing around on the magic roundabout once again and become the next President. Don't bet against this magic roundabout swinging in Putin's favour again in a few years. Russia will use it only real strength, which is the exploitation of it's mineral and fuel reserves, to wield power in the years to come. They won't start any wars either because they are now surrounded on all sides with non-friendly nations, and they don't have the ability to pursue and win a war against anybody bigger that South Ossetia.

Charisma is the key to all this, the question is will it be the charismatic peacemakers or the charismatic warmongers that will win out in the end. I'm not a great fan of Barack Obama but it is safe to say that he will become a charismatic peacemaker when he leaves office, Bill Clinton is also highly regarded and Jimmy Carter has done a quite superb job in the last 30 years. That man needs to be recognized for the work he has dome since leaving office.

Ronald Reagan was a genius, people were too fast to laugh at him but he was a genius at the only thing that mattered, playing Call My Bluff. He bluffed the life out of the Soviets with the Star Wars Initiative, and he had the best handbag swinger in history standing next to him in Maggie Thatcher. Combined with the charismatic presence of Pope John Paul ll, they created the circumstances that ended the Cold War.

However charisma can swing the other way, and the warmongers can come to the fore. The role call of dread includes Hitler, Stalin, Mao, Pol Pot and several others in the lifetime of many Thaivisa members.

So who can answer the charisma question??? not me..........the Human Animal is a funny thing, and as Harold McMillan once said........."events, dear boy, events"

Events have a funny way of turning everything upside down so once again.........everything I've written is worthless so ignore me

Thoughtful post, but I disagree about many commonwealth countries coming to aid Australia. Now Britain doesn't have aircraft carriers how are they going to protect ships transporting their military? It's not Argentina, but a real powerful military that has been armed by America,

New Zealand, military so small as to be insignificant, Canada ?, India - doubtful, Pakistan - more likely to be on Indonesia's side.

Indonesia has been the worry for as long as I can remember, so nothing different there.

Pope John Paul helped to end the cold war- I must have been looking the other way when that news item got aired!

[thaibeachlovers]

Have to disagree about the decline of energy. Nuclear can power the world once the greenies are given the shaft.

As for alternative sources, there already exists a hydrogen powered car and buses. The inexhaustible energy source is nearly ready for mass production, only waiting for the investment in infrastructure. However, that probably won't happen till the oil runs out.

Edited December 2, 2011 by astral
No need to quote the entire post. Just pick out the relevant points, please - Astral

[JurgenG]

Europe Vs China ?

My answer in two pictures

Europe

Vs

China

[theblether]

I'm going to contradict myself in to a certain extent in regard to my previous post, I've got no doubt that nuclear power, wave power etc will provide sufficient energy needs for evermore, however I have my doubts about fuelling private transport. Scientific development may well prove me wrong, and wrong is what I would like to be. After I posted last night I was having a meander through the World Politics Review, you can get it online or via a blackberry app, and I came across this article which I thought was interesting and timely......

http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/10790/u-s-should-play-the-long-game-on-energy-independence

If you can't be bothered reading the whole article, the high point is that they have discovered reserves of 6.5 trillion barrels of oil in the Americas. It could be a long time before the oil runs out.

Edited December 2, 2011 by astral
No need to quote the entire post. Just pick out the relevant points, please - Astral