Dark Clouds Gathering Over Low-Key Yingluck

[webfact]

Dark clouds gathering over low-key Yingluck

Nirmal Ghosh

The Straits Times

Coming to power in a bitterly divided political landscape, Thailand's new prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra has been low-key and diplomatic in public during her first month in office.

But some dark clouds have already begun to gather.

In the past one month, Ms Yingluck has been criticised for appointing many "red shirts" as advisers to her administration. These red shirts took part in controversial street protests against the previous Democrat Party government.

She is also expected to come up against resistance when her Puea Thai party tries to amend the Constitution to reverse clauses that weaken the role of political parties.

The Constitution was written by a committee appointed by the army which ran Thailand for a year following its coup d'etat against former premier Thaksin Shinawatra - her older brother and political mentor - in September 2006.

A previous Thaksin-loyalist government which tried to amend the Constitution in 2008 was swamped by street protests, including a crippling takeover of Bangkok's international airport by royalist protesters. That could happen again.

Critics fear amending the Constitution will pave the way for the rehabilitation of Thaksin, who is overseas dodging a two-year jail sentence for corruption.

Although the Puea Thai denies this, it has, in the meantime, revived a petition signed by more than two million people asking for a royal pardon for Thaksin.

The Justice Minister has also set up a panel to decide how to proceed with the petition, which is seen as sensitive because it places the onus on the king to respond. Critics say the king should not be asked to decide on what is essentially a political issue.

Ms Yingluck's brother remains the single most divisive, polarising figure in Thai politics. The self-confessed "hyperactive" former premier visited Japan last month, in what sometimes resembled a ministerial trip.

With his sister in power, "he is turning from an international pariah into a star again", a businessman close to Thaksin said. "Suddenly, he smells of roses."

At home, though, the trip was severely criticised by some as a reversal of policy. Thailand's last government had tried to curb Thaksin's travels, withdrawing his Thai passport. He now travels on a Montenegro passport.

Since the Japan tour, Thaksin has kept a low profile in public, cancelling trips to neighbouring Laos and Cambodia.

Puea Thai party strategists say they will take the Constitution amendment process to the people so that nobody can accuse the party of forcing it through.

They are also optimistic that Ms Yingluck's government will deliver a range of economic measures to spur the economy while easing the cost of living - moves that will please supporters and appeal to the wider Thai public.

A senior Thai businessman, who is part of Puea Thai's inner circle, estimated that the government would have a three-month honeymoon.

"Now, it's a question of delivering the pudding," he said.

An upcoming annual military reshuffle and promotion exercise, and other changes at the senior level in the bureaucracy, would be "judicious", he said, placing Thaksin loyalists in key posts, but also assuaging his enemies to avoid a backlash.

Army chief, General Prayuth Chan-Ocha, is one of those expected to keep his job.

Ms Yingluck has already introduced economic measures, such as reforms in the oil pricing system which last week translated into sharply lower pump prices. While the move was criticised for undermining alternative fuel use, it has eased inflation.

Other measures from the government include phasing in a higher minimum wage, lowering corporate taxes, and setting up a listed sovereign wealth fund.

A crackdown on drugs is also imminent. There are some fears the government may repeat Thaksin's heavy-handed tactics which saw more than 2,000 drug dealers and many casual users and bystanders killed by the police in 2003.

A repeat would trigger a backlash from Bangkok intellectuals and the middle class.

According to another senior insider, there is tacit agreement between the new government and the old elites that the army will stay in the barracks and the government will be allowed up to two years - the full term is four - to "prove our loyalty to (the monarchy) and that we can run the economy".

But much still depends on whether the Puea Thai can keep everybody happy and avoid corruption or abuse of power. There is speculation that from early next year, the government could find itself increasingly besieged by anti-Thaksin opposition forces wary of his return. Many of the old elites see him as a closet republican.

"The government is well placed in terms of popularity, but it is not going to be smooth," said Chulalongkorn University political science lecturer Pitch Pongsawat. "But society has given Yingluck a grace period to get her policies started. If she can deliver on the economic package for the poor, they will be okay."

-- ANN 2011-09-09

[elgato]

"But some dark clouds have already begun to gather."

Of course dark clouds are gathering - it's the rainy season!

[chuang]

Even if it is a clear sky, the antagonist would paint it dark....

[OzMick]

.............a businessman close to Thaksin said. "Suddenly, he smells of roses."

From a bit further back, all you can smell is the fertilizer.

[GazR]

How pathetic to describe Thaksin's attempted violent revolution of last year as "controversial street protests".

Of course, writing from Singapore as he does, one is hardly surprised, but really, this guy gives journalism a bad name -

he should be selling used cars or chasing ambulances or earning an honest living flipping burgers.

[David006]

yup best place for news is "right here" in Singapore....barf..time to dump tv off favorites methinks..NNT is far more interesting and informative...gag...

[hyperdimension]

If she can deliver on the economic package for the poor, they will be okay.

But the country won't as it would probably be heavily in debt or bankrupt.

[tlansford]

a refreshing change from the editorials by "The Drivel"

[Buchholz]

How pathetic to describe Thaksin's attempted violent revolution of last year as "controversial street protests".

Of course, writing from Singapore as he does, one is hardly surprised, but really, this guy gives journalism a bad name -

he should be selling used cars or chasing ambulances or earning an honest living flipping burgers.

He's a long-time Red sympathizer/apologist.

[REM]

Everyone knows the best thing to help the country is through education, that's why they don't do it. The poor, rural communities don't embrace it because they don't see a need for it, it has no impact on their daily lives. It's a shame these so called leaders and academics don't do anything to really help. Long live indentured servitude!

[Skywalker69]

How pathetic to describe Thaksin's attempted violent revolution of last year as "controversial street protests".

Of course, writing from Singapore as he does, one is hardly surprised, but really, this guy gives journalism a bad name -

he should be selling used cars or chasing ambulances or earning an honest living flipping burgers.

He's a long-time Red sympathizer/apologist.

Yet, not long ago he said... I don´t know the Red Movment.

[jackr]

A crackdown on drugs is also imminent.

[hammered]

The critical part is the final one. If they deliver to the poor they will be OK. They will be electorally unbeatable for ages, and hence untouchable, if they deliver that, which is why their opponents are so vocal especially if the 2 year grace period deal is true. If they start delivering on those things then they can also ease charter change through and investigate the politicians involved in April/May although maybe not the military commanders

[rubl]

The critical part is the final one. If they deliver to the poor they will be OK. They will be electorally unbeatable for ages, and hence untouchable, if they deliver that, which is why their opponents are so vocal especially if the 2 year grace period deal is true. If they start delivering on those things then they can also ease charter change through and investigate the politicians involved in April/May although maybe not the military commanders

I would assume that when you mention politicians this includes the Pheu Thai MPs who in April/May 2011 were merely peaceful protesters whipping up the mood of their cattle for a final stampede?

[OzMick]

The critical part is the final one. If they deliver to the poor they will be OK. They will be electorally unbeatable for ages, and hence untouchable, if they deliver that, which is why their opponents are so vocal especially if the 2 year grace period deal is true. If they start delivering on those things then they can also ease charter change through and investigate the politicians involved in April/May although maybe not the military commanders

IF

[letitbe]

The critical part is the final one. If they deliver to the poor they will be OK. They will be electorally unbeatable for ages, and hence untouchable, if they deliver that, which is why their opponents are so vocal especially if the 2 year grace period deal is true. If they start delivering on those things then they can also ease charter change through and investigate the politicians involved in April/May although maybe not the military commanders

I would assume that when you mention politicians this includes the Pheu Thai MPs who in April/May 2011 were merely peaceful protesters whipping up the mood of their cattle for a final stampede?

careful rules is rules and implying thai people are shall we say a little unintelligent will not be tolerated by the commandant or are they called moderators. I got banned for saying something similar and then when I dared question what I said was banned for a further period for daring to ask for an explanation. Long live freedom of thought here. I wonder how long the commandant will ban this time.

[phiphidon]

How pathetic to describe Thaksin's attempted violent revolution of last year as "controversial street protests".

Of course, writing from Singapore as he does, one is hardly surprised, but really, this guy gives journalism a bad name -

he should be selling used cars or chasing ambulances or earning an honest living flipping burgers.

He's a long-time Red sympathizer/apologist.

Yet, not long ago he said... I don´t know the Red Movment.

Nirmal Ghosh said that? I think in your rush to join the cheerleaders you've got things a bit mixed up..............

[phiphidon]

The critical part is the final one. If they deliver to the poor they will be OK. They will be electorally unbeatable for ages, and hence untouchable, if they deliver that, which is why their opponents are so vocal especially if the 2 year grace period deal is true. If they start delivering on those things then they can also ease charter change through and investigate the politicians involved in April/May although maybe not the military commanders

I would assume that when you mention politicians this includes the Pheu Thai MPs who in April/May 2011 were merely peaceful protesters whipping up the mood of their cattle for a final stampede?

careful rules is rules and implying thai people are shall we say a little unintelligent will not be tolerated by the commandant or are they called moderators. I got banned for saying something similar and then when I dared question what I said was banned for a further period for daring to ask for an explanation. Long live freedom of thought here. I wonder how long the commandant will ban this time.

So your take on freedom of thought is that it means you can compare anybody that does not think the same way as you, with animals?

Rubl should know better but seems to have got up in the feeding frenzy these days.

And the democrats wonder why they can't identify with their people, if this is some of the "intelligent" support they have from the "foreigner" contingent, it explains a lot.