Clairvoyant Needed

[shaggy1969]

Hi Folks

I know that this is maybe a long shot but here goes.

Over the past three years my wife and I have been slowly building up a pig farm in the North East of Thailand financed by my work in Holland.last January we started work on our first big pig shed and managed to put the poles,roof frame and roof on.Our plan is to continue with the work at the start of 2012.I think that to finish the building i will need 500,000 baht, which leads me to my reason for starting this topic in the first place.

My question is how do you think the exchange rate will be at the end of the year? I know that it is a very difficult question to ask seeing as Europe is in a mess and could be even more if Greece goes bankrupt.I have 6000 Euro now and should have another 6000 by the end of the year.Would i be wise to exchange some now at an exchange of 41/42 Baht/Euro or do you think that possibly i will get a better exchange if i wait.I know that i will never get the same as in 2004 and 2008 ,but all is welcome.I am not a rich man and the money that i have saved has come from doing all the overtime possible at my work and only spending money on the bare necessities.

Any insight or advice gratefully received

Shaggy

Only added photos to show that i am not a troll.

I was not sure where to post this,so my apologies to the mods :jap:

[Darrel]

Nice to see someone working hard, doing an honest job and planning for the future. It makes a real change from the run of the mill get-rich-quick farang that one generally meets here.

I sincerely hope it all works out for you without any hitches.

If anyone knew for sure where currencies were going they would already be billionaires. I dont see many of them posting on here, and I'm certainly not one (I always get my currency bets wrong, so to make money just do the opposite of what I do) but in your case I would be inclined to change what you have now as a least that way you will know where you stand. Also you can get 4% for your Baht on deposit here, which is more than you will probably get for Euros in Europe.

As a general rule there is more foreign currency coming into Thailand in the peak tourist season, and so exchange rates tend to drop then, but of course that doesn't take into account where the Euro might be heading. The intervention by the world's central banks the other day would seem to have stabilised things somewhat though.

Good luck.

[chickenslegs]

In your position I would buy Thai gold.

I think it's a pretty safe bet that gold will do better than Euro or Baht over the next few months, and if you buy in Thailand it's very easy to convert to cash when you need it.

[Beetlejuice]

I believe that agricultrual farming by farangs or financed by farangs is illegal in Thailand.

My first course of action would be to make inquiries about where you stand with the law and then worry about the exchange rates later.

[Kwasaki]

In your position I would buy Thai gold.

I think it's a pretty safe bet that gold will do better than Euro or Baht over the next few months, and if you buy in Thailand it's very easy to convert to cash when you need it.

Good one, I would change your 6000 euro now and buy Thai gold it's gone down a little but will go back up and it will be a safer bet than euro which I think is a a good rate anyway to the Baht still at the moment.

[PoorSucker]

In your position I would buy Thai gold.

I think it's a pretty safe bet that gold will do better than Euro or Baht over the next few months, and if you buy in Thailand it's very easy to convert to cash when you need it.

Good one, I would change your 6000 euro now and buy Thai gold it's gone down a little but will go back up and it will be a safer bet than euro which I think is a a good rate anyway to the Baht still at the moment.

And who will "take care" off the gold?

[Darrel]

Oh please. Not gold again.

Rarely has gold ever produced a positive return after inflation. And that doesnt take into account the cost of ownership (aka likelihood of being robbed), or indeed the fact that owning gold provides no interest or dividend at all.

And to recommend gold as a short-term investment to "widows and orphans" is, in my opinion, total insanity.

[Mirth]

OP, it's not so much what you invest but your game plan and the support you have. Even with good exchange but lack of support from your wife or partner, a million would go down the drain. Bear in mind business in thailand is not in black and white, it comes in rainbow colors!

[Boater]

to the OP

Little Concerned for you

A) how much have you already spent on the venture of a ' Pig Farm '

Over 3 yeas to build up, was this to buy the land and how much did it cost you? , also the stucture, as it looks no more then 50,000 THB worth

C) Wht is the other 500,000 THB for ? , not for stuctures or pigs.............

From a buiness view,

you aint going to get alot of pigs in that shed, and have you thought about breeding? , there isnt also alot of money in pigs, unless you sell in mass amounts... have you a plan for your farm ?

sorry for side tracking this subject, but i have seen a fw people duped into the same thing and lost AND SPENT most of there life savings, and from the OP statment he hasnt got alot of money on him

[shaggy1969]

Thanks your all your replies and ideas folks

[shaggy1969]

to the OP

Little Concerned for you

A) how much have you already spent on the venture of a ' Pig Farm '

Over 3 yeas to build up, was this to buy the land and how much did it cost you? , also the stucture, as it looks no more then 50,000 THB worth

C) Wht is the other 500,000 THB for ? , not for stuctures or pigs.............

From a buiness view,

you aint going to get alot of pigs in that shed, and have you thought about breeding? , there isnt also alot of money in pigs, unless you sell in mass amounts... have you a plan for your farm ?

sorry for side tracking this subject, but i have seen a fw people duped into the same thing and lost AND SPENT most of there life savings, and from the OP statment he hasnt got alot of money on him

Your concern is appreciated Boater.I am a little surprised that you estimate the building at less than 50,000 baht though.....at 15.5 mtrs x 23 mtrs it is maybe a little bigger than you thought and it will be used for the purpose of breeding our own piglets.

Regarding making a lot of money.Well that is not my aim,my only aim is to be able to move to Thailand and enjoy my life with my wife without burdening anyone.

Shaggy

[shaggy1969]

Nice to see someone working hard, doing an honest job and planning for the future. It makes a real change from the run of the mill get-rich-quick farang that one generally meets here.

I sincerely hope it all works out for you without any hitches.

If anyone knew for sure where currencies were going they would already be billionaires. I dont see many of them posting on here, and I'm certainly not one (I always get my currency bets wrong, so to make money just do the opposite of what I do) but in your case I would be inclined to change what you have now as a least that way you will know where you stand. Also you can get 4% for your Baht on deposit here, which is more than you will probably get for Euros in Europe.

As a general rule there is more foreign currency coming into Thailand in the peak tourist season, and so exchange rates tend to drop then, but of course that doesn't take into account where the Euro might be heading. The intervention by the world's central banks the other day would seem to have stabilised things somewhat though.

Good luck.

Many thanks Darrel

[shaggy1969]

I believe that agricultrual farming by farangs or financed by farangs is illegal in Thailand.

My first course of action would be to make inquiries about where you stand with the law and then worry about the exchange rates later.

My stand is the same as any other farang that has a farm in Thailand..... I own nothing,i am merely a guest

[flying]

None can predict exchange rates but as it seems you have & will have expense in Thailand....

It would behoove you to convert enough of your home currency as soon as possible for you.

Trying to time rates is never easy. To hope for the highest exchange rate could leave you out by large amounts.

Overall the trend is for the east to continue strengthening so if you have expense in the east you could do worse than to convert as soon as possible at least what you predict a year or two of those expenses to total.

If the majority of your expense is in the west then you can wait & take a chance.

Chok Dee

[Beetlejuice]

I believe that agricultrual farming by farangs or financed by farangs is illegal in Thailand.

My first course of action would be to make inquiries about where you stand with the law and then worry about the exchange rates later.

My stand is the same as any other farang that has a farm in Thailand..... I own nothing,i am merely a guest

If you are intending to make any profits from an agricultural business in Thailand, then in most cases you are breaking the law.

This is just stating a fact.

Also worth considering that many Thai people know this and you are vulnerable.

I hope your Thai girlfriend/wife stays loyal, the partnership never turns sour, or your Thai partner doesn’t die, because it could leave you up the creek without a paddle.

I don`t make the rules here and all I am saying is; that whatever you do and how much of your hard earned cash you ply into this, you do so at your own risk.

[crazygreg44]

Hi there, I am bearing with the same question as the OP, wishing to take 10,000 Euros to Thailand by October. I do not need to exchange right away, and can wait until January/ February 2012. I am unsure if I should exchange upon arrival, bearing in mind the Euro could further be loosing against the Thai Baht, so any exchange rate upon arrival in October would be better than all other rates following. I have then but come upon a forecast - recommended by a friend- who said that in the past 4 years their forecast has always hit the nail on the head. However, he said, no guarantee that it always will work out fine !! The risk is on you ! this link , you go check for yourself

http://www.forecasts.org/euro.htm

In July , I have exchanged 10167 Euros, receiving 14,000 US Dollars for it. By end of August, I still had a loss of 25,000 Baht / against the Euro if I had Euros exchanged in Thailand for Thai Baht / . Yesterday, at the current rates, my win/ loss rate was only by 800 Baht short !!!! So if the Dollar keeps getting stronger against the Euro, there's a fat chance it results in a 20,000 - 40000 Baht better exchange rate !

Trust me my friend, all my advice NO WARRANTY NO PROMISE . . Ok ? Life is a bit of a gamble, who wouldn t like it ?

[crazygreg44]

to the OP

Little Concerned for you

A) how much have you already spent on the venture of a ' Pig Farm '

Over 3 yeas to build up, was this to buy the land and how much did it cost you? , also the stucture, as it looks no more then 50,000 THB worth

C) Wht is the other 500,000 THB for ? , not for stuctures or pigs.............

From a buiness view,

you aint going to get alot of pigs in that shed, and have you thought about breeding? , there isnt also alot of money in pigs, unless you sell in mass amounts... have you a plan for your farm ?

sorry for side tracking this subject, but i have seen a fw people duped into the same thing and lost AND SPENT most of there life savings, and from the OP statment he hasnt got alot of money on him

I agree with this. And there is another question, what will you feed to your pigs ? If you do not own land and grow your own pig food ( maniok ), it's gonna be a non profit business for you , , , ,

[farang000999]

Forget the pigs. Buy gold.

[JRinger]

Oh please. Not gold again.

Rarely has gold ever produced a positive return after inflation. And that doesnt take into account the cost of ownership (aka likelihood of being robbed), or indeed the fact that owning gold provides no interest or dividend at all.

And to recommend gold as a short-term investment to "widows and orphans" is, in my opinion, total insanity.

....So, in your (armchair) expert opinion, what else has done better?

gold is easy to buy and relatively easy to store (safe deposit box, etc) and easy to sell, transport, etc. unlike stocks, etf's, etc. I bought gold when it was at $720/oz and have been buying since......are you suggesting I've lost money (if I cash out)???

and gold doesn't stink like pig poop...

Edited September 18, 2011 by JRinger

[Darrel]

....So, in your (armchair) expert opinion, what else has done better?

gold is easy to buy and relatively easy to store (safe deposit box, etc) and easy to sell, transport, etc. unlike stocks, etf's, etc. I bought gold when it was at $720/oz and have been buying since......are you suggesting I've lost money (if I cash out)???

Do you know how to read that chart?

Over 90% of the last 100 years, any investment that has returned more than inflation has beaten gold. Only in the last 10 years or so has gold consistently beaten inflation, and in fact anyone who bought gold in around 1979 is still waiting for the purchase to show a profit, 35 years on. That sounds like a good deal to you, does it?

Sensibly-bought shares (even some trackers like the FTSE250) have regularly trounced the value of gold, and have paid a regular dividend and have cost nothing to own.

Gilts, especially index-linked, have beaten gold year in year out, and have also paid a coupon. They are supremely liquid investments.

What else has done better? How about property? The house I bought in 1990 sold for 4 times the purchase cost last year. A nice return, even allowing for inflation. During that time, I lived in the house completely rent-free. And on top of that, it returned 8% of its purchase price every year in the form of rent, as part of the house was rented out for holiday lets. Do the sums: that place gave me a return of 10 times the purchase cost over 23 years. And you're telling me gold is better? Dream on.

The house I bought in the late seventies (just around the time that gold hit its all-time inflation-adjusted peak, to which it has never recovered since) is now worth 20 times what I paid for it (not adjusted for inflation) even allowing for the recent slump in prices. And during that time it has also returned 7% in rent every single year. And gold is better? Dream on.

As for gold being easy to store and transport, that's the biggest load of nonsense I've ever heard.

Other people (companies, banks) pay me for looking after my money. They keep it safe and I get interest or dividends. I can use it just by getting my credit card out, or making a phone call. I dont have to sell it in a shop and then take the cash to a bank. I dont need to carry it around with me or buy a safe deposit box. I dont need to worry about being burgled or mugged, or having some Thai wife's boyfriend murder me in my sleep for it.

I would have felt a right idiot moving to Thailand with my entire net worth in the form of gold bars in my suitcase.

[meom]

In your position I would buy Thai gold.

I think it's a pretty safe bet that gold will do better than Euro or Baht over the next few months, and if you buy in Thailand it's very easy to convert to cash when you need it.

A lot of gold shops advertise a buying rate but it seems they're never willing to buy when you want to sell to them.

The only place where gold is easy to covert to cash would be at the pawn shop where you loose out big.

[chris2004]

I think there will be a major crisis with the euro over the next 6-12 months. At some point the markets will force Greece and/or others to leave the euro and there will be an almighty crunch. The euro will have to fall then so i would say change what ever you can NOW. Some people have said gold is not a good long term investment, probably right, but it will still have a value when the euro crashes.

[Darrel]

I think there will be a major crisis with the euro over the next 6-12 months. At some point the markets will force Greece and/or others to leave the euro and there will be an almighty crunch. The euro will have to fall then so i would say change what ever you can NOW.

Some people might say that if the PIGS leave the Euro zone (and I would be the first to argue that they never should have been invited to join in first place) then whatever is left will be much stronger, and the value of the Euro could well rise as a result.

Sharing a single currency with tin-pot, worthless, spendthrift, non-productive countries like Greece was insanity from the beginning, but who ever heard of bureaucrats and politicians using their brains?

[Kwasaki]

Thanks your all your replies and ideas folks

Gold has always helped me OK in Thailand in saving money or you can just change it up and keep in a bank account of your own.

The pigs idea is OK too if you go about with proper feed and get a good breeding program going you will not make a fortune but keep ticking over.

I would read up on how to care properly for them so you can avoid most of the vet fee's.

From the horses mouth so to speak, have a friend who had kept pigs in a small way and he thought it was a good thing to do if he wanted to do it on a bigger scale.

If your happy with your planned future idea that's all that matter's, good luck.

Edited September 18, 2011 by Kwasaki

[PoorSucker]

Some people might say that if the PIGS leave the Euro zone (and I would be the first to argue that they never should have been invited to join in first place) then whatever is left will be much stronger, and the value of the Euro could well rise as a result.

Sharing a single currency with tin-pot, worthless, spendthrift, non-productive countries like Greece was insanity from the beginning, but who ever heard of bureaucrats and politicians using their brains?

Agree, I'm hoping they will be kicked out.

That would boost the Euro to 55 against the baht.

[Johnniey]

In your position I would buy Thai gold.

I think it's a pretty safe bet that gold will do better than Euro or Baht over the next few months, and if you buy in Thailand it's very easy to convert to cash when you need it.

A lot of gold shops advertise a buying rate but it seems they're never willing to buy when you want to sell to them.

The only place where gold is easy to covert to cash would be at the pawn shop where you loose out big.

All gold shops I know will buy anytime from me. I have a receipt from when I bought it.

I suggest to the OP to forget pigs and buy gold.

Oh please. Not gold again.

Rarely has gold ever produced a positive return after inflation. And that doesnt take into account the cost of ownership (aka likelihood of being robbed), or indeed the fact that owning gold provides no interest or dividend at all.

Rubbish.

I started buying gold as an investment when it was 6000 Baht, 10 years ago. I've made a lot of money WELL over the rate of inflation.

6000 - 26000 is quite a jump in 10 years.

[manarak]

regarding the Euro:

First let's be clear that I compare the value of the EUR to currencies and stuff that has real value, not to other currencies that also have big problems, like the USD, the GBP.

I think the Thai baht has been quite stable, so the baht is a good benchmark.

Perspectives for the EURzone are bleak.

- Either they "stabilize" at the current level by supplying even more EUR to the markets by buying up PIIGS' sovereign debts (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Spain) - the result is that the EUR will either stay stable at its current value or weaken even more.

OR

- They fail to stabilize the zone, and Greece and maybe other countries default, possible drop out of the EUR zone.

Then one voice says the EUR could appreciate again, but I think this would be just a limited short term move, because either way, the billions of EUR spent on bad debt will still be missing. So the damage will have been done already, and I don't see how the EUR will notably appreciate in the next 12 months.

So I think the EUR can only stay stable or lose value.

Gold is a bit volatile and could well lose 10%-15% over any considered period.

If you want to keep the value, maybe the Norvegian Kronor is a good investment.

If you like a bit of risk, you can consider Russian Rouble or Australian Dollar.

Or even Brazilian Real... paying 12% interest :-)

Edited September 18, 2011 by manarak

[Darrel]

Oh please. Not gold again.

Rarely has gold ever produced a positive return after inflation. And that doesnt take into account the cost of ownership (aka likelihood of being robbed), or indeed the fact that owning gold provides no interest or dividend at all.

Rubbish.

I started buying gold as an investment when it was 6000 Baht, 10 years ago. I've made a lot of money WELL over the rate of inflation.

6000 - 26000 is quite a jump in 10 years.

You seem to have missed the graph and my other post where I went into some detail about which years gold has actually been worth owning. Only during the last 10 years of the previous 100 has it been worthwhile, as the graph clearly shows.

Just be thankful you didn't buy gold 30+ years ago: you would still be waiting to get your money back.

Give me magic beans any day. At least you can make soup out of them.

[shaggy1969]

Gold would be a option but certainly not one i am going to take.I think that i will just play the waiting game for now and if the Euro does fall then i will just have to wait a little bit longer.

Shaggy

[farang000999]

Oh please. Not gold again.

Rarely has gold ever produced a positive return after inflation. And that doesnt take into account the cost of ownership (aka likelihood of being robbed), or indeed the fact that owning gold provides no interest or dividend at all.

Rubbish.

I started buying gold as an investment when it was 6000 Baht, 10 years ago. I've made a lot of money WELL over the rate of inflation.

6000 - 26000 is quite a jump in 10 years.

You seem to have missed the graph and my other post where I went into some detail about which years gold has actually been worth owning. Only during the last 10 years of the previous 100 has it been worthwhile, as the graph clearly shows.

Just be thankful you didn't buy gold 30+ years ago: you would still be waiting to get your money back.

Give me magic beans any day. At least you can make soup out of them.

Paper money always becomes worthless. Show me a 500 year chart of the value of gold compared to paper money... oops all those currencies were printed to worthlessness and then recreated.