Managing Victory Is Harder Than Winning Elections: Thai Talk

[webfact]

THAI TALK

Managing victory is harder than winning elections

By Suthichai Yoon

The Nation

Everyone in politics, it seems, wants to claim that they can make poor Thai farmers richer. Everyone else, it seems, believes that once you're in power, you can do that. Except that farmers themselves aren't too sure.

The Yingluck government's much-heralded rice subsidy policy, setting the price higher than what the market is ready to pay, seems like a good populist plank.

"As the government, we deliver what we promised during the election campaign," declared the premier. Deputy premier and commerce minister Kittiratt na Ranong also confirmed that every farmer who sells his paddy stock to the government will get Bt15,000 tonne per on average, no matter what the market says it should be.

The only problem is that neither the PM nor deputy premier, who are charged with implementing this plan, were there when Pheu Thai Party executives drew it up to ensure they received the majority of votes from farmers. The election strategists didn't get to execute the plans they hatched. But politicians have no choice but the defend their party's platform. The question isn't whether the promise was realistic or do-able. The issue now is that the electorate is demanding the administration lives up to its promise.

Even if a policy is shot through with holes, there is no escaping the fact that you can't back out. Votes decide everything in politics. And once a policy's on the agenda, the public expects you to get it done, one way or the other.

The show, however surreal and illusory, must go on. Now, the Cabinet has approved a budget of no less than Bt4 billion to get the rice project off the ground. Can the Yingluck government prove all the critics wrong?

The critics range from farmers' representatives and exporters to academics and opposition politicians. And their points have been well taken, and proven - because this isn't the first time such a controversial, expensive and problem-plagued scheme has been implemented. A similar one was vigorously pursued by the Thaksin government and the losses incurred remain a sore point.

For one thing, the president of the Thai Farmers' Association, Prasit Boonchuey, has publicly complained that the government hasn't chosen any farmers' representative to sit on the committee that considers details of how the plan is to be executed. That, of course, is an unusual oversight. If the government plans to please farmers with this costly scheme, the least it can do is to give farmers a say in how they might gain from the exercise.

This is particularly crucial in view of academic findings earlier that only "rich farmers" stand to benefit from the project while the genuinely poor farmers, who should really be the main beneficiaries, will not see any extra gain at all.

If that's one of the main failings of the policy, the government could have at least blunted the revival of this critical analysis by involving the farmers' association in the monitoring of the implementation process - so that poor farmers can testify to the results of this plan.

Exporters have chimed in with loud complaints - that the plan will hit the country's rice exports in a significant way, so much so that Thai rice exports could be reduced by 30-40 per cent next year because we are pricing ourselves out of the market. Vietnam, our main competitor, will be handed a golden opportunity to overtake Thailand as the world's largest rice exporter if that scenario should come to pass.

The government has responded to that negative line of argument with its own strategy of direct contact with other governments that have been buying rice from Thailand. Deputy PM Kittiratt, who is also commerce minister, says he will send Thai delegations to launch a "roadshow" in foreign countries to market Thai rice in an effort to pre-empt any problems. In other words, the government is telling the exporters: If you guys in the private sector can't sell Thai rice at a higher price despite our better quality, let the government do it. If you can't convince private buyers in other countries, we can persuade the governments to continue buying from us. Or something along that line.

Academics who are against this policy have also pointed out the loopholes in the pledging process that encourage corruption all along the way. Some of the paddy stock that joins the project might not even be Thai rice. Investigations have revealed that Cambodian and Lao paddy has been used in place of Thai rice in this scheme, a blatant corrupt practice that gives the plan a really bad name.

But Deputy PM Kittiratt remains convinced he can pull it off, and once farmers get richer, local consumption will rise and the economy will rise, making it all the more sensible that the minimum wage should be raised to Bt300 per day for every worker.

Easier said than done, of course. All signs point to more trouble ahead, despite the government's unwavering confidence. Winning the election was hard. But keeping election promises will prove even harder. Managing electoral victory in all its forms is the hardest of all.

-- The Nation 2011-09-22

[OzMick]

On average? Where did that come from?

[finnomick1]

" Managing victory is harder than winning elections " -- of course it is. You now have to deliver the goods to the people you allegedly paid to vote for you.

Don't worry about your rice exports, the foreign middlemen will ' chemically ' adjust your rice so they only need to buy the cheapest. Whilst in the UK, my wife fancied some jasmine rice so we bought a packet ( Asda Scunthorpe ). When she tried it, she commented that in no way was it jasmine rice so we read the packet. Sure wasn't jasmine rice, but ordinary rice modified to supposedly taste like jasmine rice.

So, the farmers will get richer and will then be able to double his workers' wages and pay all the extra added costs fueled by the inflation this move has caused. No doubt he'll pay this from the average 15000 baht a tonne he gets from the government for his rice. Having doubled his workers wages and paid all the inflation caused costs, exactly what will he be left with ? Pretty much the same as now I reckon. And, what happens when your crop fails due to lack of rain or water like last year ? How many farmers won't be able to pay their workers the new wages......oh, of course, they'll charge it to their new credit cards -- silly me.

[rubl]

The only thing missing in the OP is a last sentence

And all lived happily ever after ...

[longtimepassed]

...........but they'll all be rich in 6 months make that 3 1/2

Edited September 22, 2011 by longtimepassed

[moe666]

We will influence the governments to continue to buy our rice. do they not know how most free markets work, even governments will not pay double for rice, maybe commodes but not rice. More head in the sand government.

[vpi78]

" Managing victory is harder than winning elections " -- of course it is. You now have to deliver the goods to the people you allegedly paid to vote for you.

Don't worry about your rice exports, the foreign middlemen will ' chemically ' adjust your rice so they only need to buy the cheapest. Whilst in the UK, my wife fancied some jasmine rice so we bought a packet ( Asda Scunthorpe ). When she tried it, she commented that in no way was it jasmine rice so we read the packet. Sure wasn't jasmine rice, but ordinary rice modified to supposedly taste like jasmine rice.

So, the farmers will get richer and will then be able to double his workers' wages and pay all the extra added costs fueled by the inflation this move has caused. No doubt he'll pay this from the average 15000 baht a tonne he gets from the government for his rice. Having doubled his workers wages and paid all the inflation caused costs, exactly what will he be left with ? Pretty much the same as now I reckon. And, what happens when your crop fails due to lack of rain or water like last year ? How many farmers won't be able to pay their workers the new wages......oh, of course, they'll charge it to their new credit cards -- silly me.

Exactly the problem Barry Hussein O'Bummer has come across. "If you love me ... pass this jobs bill." What arrogance and ineptitude, Yingluck is hopefully more astute.

[whybother]

Exactly the problem Barry Hussein O'Bummer has come across. "If you love me ... pass this jobs bill." What arrogance and ineptitude, Yingluck is hopefully more astute.

"Yingluck is hopefully more astute."

Good luck with that.