One-Third Of Thailand 'Disaster' Area: Govt

[mca]

In the interests of fairness and balance

Edited October 13, 2011 by mca

[MaxYakov]

In the interests of fairness and balance

Naaaah. Tell the truth. You just think she's very hot in boots. These PR pics (turned agitprop triggers) of the PMs have driven this topic to hell in a 'handbag' ... or is it now to hell in 'hip boots' (which she should have been wearing).

[ResX]

Hello all. I'm just join the forum specifically to join the discussion about reservoir operations in particular its flood control capability. I've been working in this area for more than 15years by now. My highest achievement is my developed flood defensive strategy for one of our major flood control reservoirs has managed to "capture" the biggest flood in 50 years. Before the management of the reservoir adopted my strategy the reservoir was badly beaten by the food slightly bigger than half of the size that I have successfully captured three times in 25 years.

I'm here just to share with you my thought. The ultimate aim is I want to contribute to save people from reservoir operations related flood irrespectively where they are in the world. This is the area I'm good at. Since the recent flood in Bangkok has something to do with reservoir operations, that is why I'm interested to join the discussion. I don't have any commercial intention at all.

For a start let me explain a bit about flood control concept for a flood control reservoir. Once the concept is well understood we can easily learn what could go wrong with reservoir operations and what will be the implications.

The underlying principal to design a flood control reservoir is " The biggest flood is the flood that you have yet seen". Due to this we can't design a flood control reservoir to take all sizes of floods. It has no practical meaning to do so since we can't beat enemy that we don't know its strength. The practical design point of views are (1) the reservoir has to be designed to take the maximum anticipated flood size (2) Should the actual flood size exceed the design expected maximum, the reservoir shall be adequately strong to hold hydrostatic pressure indefinitely and there shall be a mean to release the excess as gradually as possible.

[webfact]

IMPORTANT INFO:

Google Flood Crisis Map now available in English: http://bit.ly/qSPlf4

[MaxYakov]

< snip >

The underlying principal to design a flood control reservoir is " The biggest flood is the flood that you have yet seen". Due to this we can't design a flood control reservoir to take all sizes of floods. It has no practical meaning to do so since we can't beat enemy that we don't know its strength. The practical design point of views are (1) the reservoir has to be designed to take the maximum anticipated flood size (2) Should the actual flood size exceed the design expected maximum, the reservoir shall be adequately strong to hold hydrostatic pressure indefinitely and there shall be a mean to release the excess as gradually as possible.

Thanks for posting and Welcome.

Did you mean: "The biggest flood is the flood that you have not yet seen?"

I believe the Fukushima reactors were protected by a tsunami wall that was only a little shy of worst-case (obviously). They had 'not seen' a tsunami like the one that occurred in at least several hundred years. However, they were warned by experts about the under-design and, no doubt due to cost, did not improve it. I understand what you're saying (I think), but can't a marginal over-design not assist in dealing very well with normal conditions and, yet, protect more robustly in cases of more severe, less predictable conditions?

The good news about reservoirs is that at least the contained water is not likely to be radioactive.

Edited October 14, 2011 by MaxYakov

[ResX]

< snip >

The underlying principal to design a flood control reservoir is " The biggest flood is the flood that you have yet seen". Due to this we can't design a flood control reservoir to take all sizes of floods. It has no practical meaning to do so since we can't beat enemy that we don't know its strength. The practical design point of views are (1) the reservoir has to be designed to take the maximum anticipated flood size (2) Should the actual flood size exceed the design expected maximum, the reservoir shall be adequately strong to hold hydrostatic pressure indefinitely and there shall be a mean to release the excess as gradually as possible.

Thanks for posting and Welcome.

Did you mean: "The biggest flood is the flood that you have not yet seen?"

I believe the Fukushima reactors were protected by a tsunami wall that was only a little shy of worst-case (obviously). They had 'not seen' a tsunami like the one that occurred in at least several hundred years. However, they were warned by experts about the under-design and, no doubt due to cost, did not improve it. I understand what you're saying (I think), but can't a marginal over-design not assist in dealing very well with normal conditions and, yet, protect more robustly in cases of more severe, less predictable conditions?

The good news about reservoirs is that at least the contained water is not likely to be radioactive.

If you think the current flood that you have seen then is the biggest one then you must be wrong. Given some period of times in the future the flood of this size will be exceeded. That is why the flood normally is defined by using its average occurrence interval. For example the biggest flood in 50 years is bigger than the biggest flood in 5 years. The biggest flood in 1000 years is bigger than the biggest flood in 50 years. That is one of the expects to define the flood . Another aspect of defining the flood is by defining its magnitude over a specific period. For example a 7 day flood with volume of flood water 300million m3 or the flood that is equivalent to 6 months of average flow that falls in 7 days.

When you are operating a flood control structure then the two aspects shall be well under stood. They have the meanings. In lay man term if you can follow, one aspect defines probability of occurrence (average recurrence interval) the other aspect defines its intensity. The final value that you might use to prepare your reservoir to deal with flood is the combination of these two aspect.

Believe me. Many unlearned people get screw up with the concept. I hope it is not the case for the recent flood in your country.

[mdechgan]

In the interests of fairness and balance

Naaaah. Tell the truth. You just think she's very hot in boots. These PR pics (turned agitprop triggers) of the PMs have driven this topic to hell in a 'handbag' ... or is it now to hell in 'hip boots' (which she should have been wearing).

Have to admit she's one of the prettier looking lady PM's

Mentioning lady PM I always think about Margaret Thatcher, Helen Clark, etc.

Edited October 14, 2011 by mdechgan

[MaxYakov]

< snip >

The underlying principal to design a flood control reservoir is " The biggest flood is the flood that you have yet seen". Due to this we can't design a flood control reservoir to take all sizes of floods. It has no practical meaning to do so since we can't beat enemy that we don't know its strength. The practical design point of views are (1) the reservoir has to be designed to take the maximum anticipated flood size (2) Should the actual flood size exceed the design expected maximum, the reservoir shall be adequately strong to hold hydrostatic pressure indefinitely and there shall be a mean to release the excess as gradually as possible.

Thanks for posting and Welcome.

Did you mean: "The biggest flood is the flood that you have not yet seen?"

I believe the Fukushima reactors were protected by a tsunami wall that was only a little shy of worst-case (obviously). They had 'not seen' a tsunami like the one that occurred in at least several hundred years. However, they were warned by experts about the under-design and, no doubt due to cost, did not improve it. I understand what you're saying (I think), but can't a marginal over-design not assist in dealing very well with normal conditions and, yet, protect more robustly in cases of more severe, less predictable conditions?

The good news about reservoirs is that at least the contained water is not likely to be radioactive.

< snip >

If you think the current flood that you have seen then is the biggest one then you must be wrong. Given some period of times in the future the flood of this size will be exceeded.

< snip >

Believe me. Many unlearned people get screw up with the concept. I hope it is not the case for the recent flood in your country.

No, I didn't mean that at all. In fact, I meant just the opposite. In your first post you stated:

"The biggest flood is the flood that you have yet seen"

And I asked you:

Did you mean: "The biggest flood is the flood that you have not yet seen?"

What happened is that I attempted to mentally correct your first statement as I read it. It was such an important statement that I wanted to insure that my mental correction was valid. It was the "underlying principal to design a flood control reservoir." So I gave you a version that was worded in the way that gave the meaning that I thought you had intended so I could get that interpretation confirmed by you.

Your recent response allowed me to, again, correctly interpret your original statement. I have had a lot of practice interpreting poorly-worded English, lately.

To avoid misinterpretation it would have been better worded as:

"The biggest flood is the flood that you have yet to see" (or 'have not yet seen')

or (more succinctly):

"The biggest flood has yet to be seen"

or (maybe way too informal):

"The biggie is always on the way"

Thanks for the reply and the overview of flood risk management. It will take me more time to understand it. Up until your posts, I thought they just threw darts to determine dam/reservoir specifications/requirements.

[lounger]

I just hope when all this is over, this government does everything in its power to help the people affected. Not just themselves.

I'm sure everyone agrees with your hopes. Sadly last time there was a crisis Abisit ( then in power) refused to allow relief to be handled at provincial level as " corruption will divert funds".

I remember a funny (!) incident when post tsunami a five million baht donation went missing:

It was removed from the desk in my office.

It was removed from a safe.

We never received it.....................

[MaxYakov]

I just hope when all this is over, this government does everything in its power to help the people affected. Not just themselves.

I'm sure everyone agrees with your hopes. Sadly last time there was a crisis Abisit ( then in power) refused to allow relief to be handled at provincial level as " corruption will divert funds".

I remember a funny (!) incident when post tsunami a five million baht donation went missing:

It was removed from the desk in my office.

It was removed from a safe.

We never received it.....................

It was lost in the tsunami ... :jap:

[ResX]

< snip >

The underlying principal to design a flood control reservoir is " The biggest flood is the flood that you have yet seen". Due to this we can't design a flood control reservoir to take all sizes of floods. It has no practical meaning to do so since we can't beat enemy that we don't know its strength. The practical design point of views are (1) the reservoir has to be designed to take the maximum anticipated flood size (2) Should the actual flood size exceed the design expected maximum, the reservoir shall be adequately strong to hold hydrostatic pressure indefinitely and there shall be a mean to release the excess as gradually as possible.

Thanks for posting and Welcome.

Did you mean: "The biggest flood is the flood that you have not yet seen?"

I believe the Fukushima reactors were protected by a tsunami wall that was only a little shy of worst-case (obviously). They had 'not seen' a tsunami like the one that occurred in at least several hundred years. However, they were warned by experts about the under-design and, no doubt due to cost, did not improve it. I understand what you're saying (I think), but can't a marginal over-design not assist in dealing very well with normal conditions and, yet, protect more robustly in cases of more severe, less predictable conditions?

The good news about reservoirs is that at least the contained water is not likely to be radioactive.

Thank you very much for your correction. I appreciate it.

The worst case scenario is much more damaging then what we can imaging. The scenario is dam break scenario. I think your government shall start the initiative to have Emergency Response Plan (ERP) for all its major dams and reservoirs.

ERP for dam break scenario is not about money anymore. Its main objective is save life of the population at large. If I were the authority to regulate reservoir operations in my country I will ensure all our major dams and reservoirs to have it. I will ensure every new dam to have valid ERP for dam break scenario before any approval is granted.

Edited October 15, 2011 by ResX

[fantuzi]

I spent 6 hours yesterday helping to fill up bags with sand in Pathun Thani. I live in a relatively flood free zone in Bangkok Noi. But folks in Nontabutry and surrounding areas are really in a tough spot.

I saw it first hand. I returned home soaking wet and covered with mud.

If all the energy displayed in this forum were put to a better use such as helping those in need instead of criticizing and speculating on political aspects of this disaster (decades in the making through several administrations), Bangkok and surrounding areas could benefit and be spared from a worse fate.

Thanks for posting this. However, FWIW, someone on another flood topic apprised 'farangs' that work in any form, even without compensation (volunteer), without a work permit could lead to arrest, fine, imprisonment or deportation. I suspect it is usually an inclusive 'or'. For some reason he was disconcertingly using smiley faces in his posts and was adamant about the veracity of his assertion. I told him this was good news to me because now I have a legal reason not to even volunteer to help (or some such).

This is my personal opinion,I think that many posters here have jobs in ThaiVisa - writing posts.

There is word for this sort of occupation:"shills".

I do not know - how much they are paid?

Any input?

[maiphedmaiaroi]

I spent 6 hours yesterday helping to fill up bags with sand in Pathun Thani. I live in a relatively flood free zone in Bangkok Noi. But folks in Nontabutry and surrounding areas are really in a tough spot.

I saw it first hand. I returned home soaking wet and covered with mud.

If all the energy displayed in this forum were put to a better use such as helping those in need instead of criticizing and speculating on political aspects of this disaster (decades in the making through several administrations), Bangkok and surrounding areas could benefit and be spared from a worse fate.

I did exactly the same today along with the locals in my village. Even with the not knowing what will happen in the next few days it was a great feeling everyone pulling together.

[nicky1982]

This pretty much sums everything up now with her for me ..

[maiphedmaiaroi]

I spent 6 hours yesterday helping to fill up bags with sand in Pathun Thani. I live in a relatively flood free zone in Bangkok Noi. But folks in Nontabutry and surrounding areas are really in a tough spot.

I saw it first hand. I returned home soaking wet and covered with mud.

If all the energy displayed in this forum were put to a better use such as helping those in need instead of criticizing and speculating on political aspects of this disaster (decades in the making through several administrations), Bangkok and surrounding areas could benefit and be spared from a worse fate.

Thanks for posting this. However, FWIW, someone on another flood topic apprised 'farangs' that work in any form, even without compensation (volunteer), without a work permit could lead to arrest, fine, imprisonment or deportation. I suspect it is usually an inclusive 'or'. For some reason he was disconcertingly using smiley faces in his posts and was adamant about the veracity of his assertion. I told him this was good news to me because now I have a legal reason not to even volunteer to help (or some such).

Get a lite you loser. FWIW i worked with 3 police men today and 1 doctor and some guy that works at goverment complex for immigration. They were so happy a farang helped they even took pics. Oh shit............ but seriously get real mate.