Stop The Stopgap Measures; The Peter Principle Dictates It: Thai Opinion

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TELL IT AS IT IS

Stop the stopgap measures; the Peter principle dictates it

Pornpimol Kanchanalak

Every hour and every day, we hear stories, totally different stories. Bangkok is safe, Bangkok is at risk, flood gates (dykes, sandbags, steel plates, future boars, etc.) erected, flood gates survived, flood gates collapsed, Bangkok is safe, flood gates erected, flood gates collapsed

In the morning, the news headlines quoted a cabinet member who declared triumphantly, the worst was over, and Bangkok was spared. In the afternoon, a key industrial estate in the suburb of Bangkok suffered flash flood. Overnight flash flood submerged the whole residential development. Now we were told the worst might be towards the end of the month and even beyond.

The next day, we will hear more stories about more makeshift sand bag walls, here, there and everywhere. And the same day we will hear more stories about these walls, somewhere, succumb to the floods.

Many of us want to scream to all the powers that be that have messed up so royally with their flood management endeavors: STOP THE FOLLIES. None of the known stopgap measures will ever work with the floods of this magnitude at this time. If anything, they create more problems rather than solving them.

Dr. Laurence J Peter and Raymond Hull in their humorous book The Peter Principle, published in 1969, concluded from their observation that anything that (used to) works, will be used in progressively more challenging applications until it fails.

Even more poignant is their statement that "in a hierarchy, every employee tends to rise to his level of incompetence", i.e. they tend to be promoted until they reach a position at which they cannot work competently.

The public does not doubt the sincere eagerness of the government personnel in charge of the flood management; we only doubt their competence.

Everyday that we have to deal with emotional yo-yo is taking its toll. If Bangkok is going to be flooded, let it be flooded, but in a calculated and manageable manner. Any financial planners are not afraid of inflation, they are afraid of unanticipated, unforeseen inflation. Investors can deal with risks, as long as they are calculated risks. Their investments will not be risk-free, but they are risks they have already factored in. The rest is as good as anybody's guess.

By definition, a stopgap is something that serves as a temporary expedient. It is only supposed to be in place provisionally, until a genuine solution is found. With our current nation-wide flooding devastation, the volume and velocity of water reaching Bangkok is beyond the expediency any makeshift measures. Nature, in her fury can never be stopped, but we human can survive by being pliable with her, so as not to be broken by her.

Thailand did not escape the hand of powerful colonialism by rigidly standing up against it. We escaped because of our "bend with the wind" strategy. Mohammad Ali did not become a greatest boxing champ because he was best at butting head; he was great because he was nimble and smart.

If this fight against looming Bangkok flooding calamity is a war, the way we are doing it, defeat is the only option we have. Water has to flow some place, if not here and now, it's then and there. It does not just evaporate, it cannot be stopped, where will it go next? Our floods management team has tried to divert it, block it, chase it, sweep it, to the point where we know not which way it goes, where the end of the diversion lines lead, where, when and how the water mass will go out to the sea. Water flows where it must and can; we cannot pull it by the nose and expect it to last; chicken comes home to roost, and raging waters will come back to haunt. If Bangkok, or part of it will be allowed to flood, where, when, how much, and how long? Many of us may love the high of suspense, but not the kind of suspense caused by cluelessness.

The long-term, sustainable and effective solution to the recurring flooding problems that are occurring more frequently in Thailand will require wisdom and expertise to lay out a sound and well-coordinated, coherent strategy and tactic which may take years to complete and implement. If it succeeds, we may someday find ourselves worry-free of flood during the deluge of rains and high tides, and of draught during the dry season. They are the twin evils of the poor national water management and planning.

Meanwhile, people are losing their mind with the unknowns, and the "binge and purge" dry-today, flood-tomorrow, hapless thingamajig crisis handling measures. They cannot plan ahead, they cannot quit worrying, they are despondent, and they are getting angrier as they push their limit of tolerance and endurance.

None of these can bode well for the sustainability of the current government.

In the face of enormous flooding problem, the stopgap measures have to cease. They are doing more harm and good. What we need is a malleable, smart and coherent new strategy. We need flood management measures that are disciplined, yet fully respect the nature of water and the way it behaves. We can ride out this crisis on nature's back, not against her. Controlling and defeating this amount of water is in the end, a losing exertion, cajoling it may not. Mechanical makeshift and panicky piecemeal measures may win some battles, but they will lose the war. Wisdom, courage, and coherent collaboration are the self-consciousness of crisis resolution.

It is said that for man, the most difficult challenge of all is to change the way we think. But with this flooding crisis, change the way it thinks, our government must.

-- The Nation 2011-10-20

[joefromdc]

Well put.

[TAWP]

In the morning, the news headlines quoted a cabinet member who declared triumphantly, the worst was over, and Bangkok was spared. In the afternoon, a key industrial estate in the suburb of Bangkok suffered flash flood. Overnight flash flood submerged the whole residential development.

Indeed - since there are a lot of unskilled people in the wrong positions trying to run politics without realizing that the weather don't listen to them.

Even more poignant is their statement that "in a hierarchy, every employee tends to rise to his level of incompetence", i.e. they tend to be promoted until they reach a position at which they cannot work competently.

Well, that seems to be the way it works here...especially since people are elevated due to age or tenure, instead of skills...

[pogal]

"It is said that for man, the most difficult challenge of all is to change the way we think. But with this flooding crisis, change the way it thinks, our government must."

I'm pretty sure that was Yoda who said that!

[thaimite]

Well put.

+1

[Credo]

I couldn't agree more. I am going nuts waiting for the inevitable. I feel like a prisoner on death row waiting on the outcome of an appeal.

I laud, and laugh, at the effort that has been made, but it was from day one for naught. That water must get to the sea and there is just too much for anyone to control.

It's part of human nature to try and control these things, but we can't. In the end we really, really cannot.

[sultan]

Objective and coherent on the whole - and well-penned, a good article/editorial.

If only the on-the-spot reporting would/could follow this example

[GazR]

Objective and coherent on the whole - and well-penned, a good article/editorial.

If only the on-the-spot reporting would/could follow this example

Yes, it's sad but true that this type of article is usually published only as an opinion piece - which the powers-that-be can brush off as just an opinion - and not as a news report based to some degree on fact.

[GazR]

I couldn't agree more. I am going nuts waiting for the inevitable. I feel like a prisoner on death row waiting on the outcome of an appeal.

I laud, and laugh, at the effort that has been made, but it was from day one for naught. That water must get to the sea and there is just too much for anyone to control.

It's part of human nature to try and control these things, but we can't. In the end we really, really cannot.

Before you go to sleep try to empty your mind of the 'control' concept and meditate a little on the 'manage' concept - and when you wake up tomorrow you will see your absolutist views for the unbalanced misconceptions which they are and you will have probably thought of a few positive things you could do to improve the situation. If that doesn't work, then it's probably just a matter of semantics or a temporary emotional aberation due to stress.

[bigbamboo]

Someone throw joefromdc a fish!

[Steely Dan]

I couldn't agree more. I am going nuts waiting for the inevitable. I feel like a prisoner on death row waiting on the outcome of an appeal.

I laud, and laugh, at the effort that has been made, but it was from day one for naught. That water must get to the sea and there is just too much for anyone to control.

It's part of human nature to try and control these things, but we can't. In the end we really, really cannot.

King Canute had this one figured over 1000 years ago, even the old moat in C.M used to take flood waters round the old city as oppose to trying to stop it in it's tracks, but there's progress for you.

[spirit47]

Korruption is the real problem, they sell their votes and positions and than they good looking...until a real problem arrive...

The hard working, smart and clever people with knowledge can't grow up to higher positions

if the have no money.

Sorry, but this land get what it earns. And the people on the land, the farmers, I hope they see now whats going on.

[joefromdc]

Someone throw joefromdc a fish!

Caught it!

[oldgeezer]

From this morning's "The Nation"

"LATEST"-"Bangkok opens watergates"

"Runoff from Nava Nakorn rages through waterworks canal"

Pathum Thani deluge 'out of control'

"HOT NEWS"-"Plans to let capital flood ruled out - The government has ruled out a proposal to allow runoffs to pass through Bangkok before draining into the sea"

She said the water from Bangkok's canals would not overflow onto the roads. "But if it does overflow, we will use pumps," she said.

Asked whether Bangkok could be considered safe from floods, Yingluck said, "It's a surveillance area. It's not a risky area".

I feel much better now.

Edited October 20, 2011 by oldgeezer

[Gonsalviz]

In the morning, the news headlines quoted a cabinet member who declared triumphantly, the worst was over, and Bangkok was spared. In the afternoon, a key industrial estate in the suburb of Bangkok suffered flash flood. Overnight flash flood submerged the whole residential development.

Indeed - since there are a lot of unskilled people in the wrong positions trying to run politics without realizing that the weather don't listen to them.

Even more poignant is their statement that "in a hierarchy, every employee tends to rise to his level of incompetence", i.e. they tend to be promoted until they reach a position at which they cannot work competently.

Well, that seems to be the way it works here...especially since people are elevated due to age or tenure, instead of skills...

I am pretty sure it works that way everywhere when politics are involved.

[zakk9]

Well put.

+1

+2

[Deez]

Govrnment is lost because they cant bribe mother nature

[hanuman2543]

"Even more poignant is their statement that "in a hierarchy, every employee tends to rise to his level of incompetence", i.e. they tend to be promoted until they reach a position at which they cannot work competently"

Couldn't agree more with "The Nation". The sad thing for Thailand is, that this is not restricted to crisis management it is part of everyday life.

Edited October 21, 2011 by hanuman2543

[DLock]

"It is said that for man, the most difficult challenge of all is to change the way we think. But with this flooding crisis, change the way it thinks, our government must."

I'm pretty sure that was Yoda who said that!

Man, that made me laugh. Nice.

[scotbeve]

I couldn't agree more. I am going nuts waiting for the inevitable. I feel like a prisoner on death row waiting on the outcome of an appeal.

I laud, and laugh, at the effort that has been made, but it was from day one for naught. That water must get to the sea and there is just too much for anyone to control.

It's part of human nature to try and control these things, but we can't. In the end we really, really cannot.

King Canute had this one figured over 1000 years ago, even the old moat in C.M used to take flood waters round the old city as oppose to trying to stop it in it's tracks, but there's progress for you.

Hate to sound like a scratched record but this could have been all planned and in place in years subsequent to the 1942 floods (after the Japanese occupation of course). EG: shored up canals which were wide at the time, additional diversion canals around the city as another poster implied regarding Chiang Mai moats, large diameter pipes, wide multi-purpose gates,and plenty more measures...

[Steely Dan]

I couldn't agree more. I am going nuts waiting for the inevitable. I feel like a prisoner on death row waiting on the outcome of an appeal.

I laud, and laugh, at the effort that has been made, but it was from day one for naught. That water must get to the sea and there is just too much for anyone to control.

It's part of human nature to try and control these things, but we can't. In the end we really, really cannot.

King Canute had this one figured over 1000 years ago, even the old moat in C.M used to take flood waters round the old city as oppose to trying to stop it in it's tracks, but there's progress for you.

Hate to sound like a scratched record but this could have been all planned and in place in years subsequent to the 1942 floods (after the Japanese occupation of course). EG: shored up canals which were wide at the time, additional diversion canals around the city as another poster implied regarding Chiang Mai moats, large diameter pipes, wide multi-purpose gates,and plenty more measures...

I don't want to stray too far off topic but have been researching organic farming recently and one factoid stood out;- All else being equal soil rich with earthworms can absorb 4.5 times more water than soil without. Of course in order to maintain the worms you have to cut down on pesticides and stop the short term slash and burn agriculture with chemical fertilizers disguising the damage done to the land. This is not a short term problem though it has built up gradually however soil with a humus layer loses far less water in the dry season and so the need to keep so much water in the dams would decrease, which essentially was a major factor in these floods.

[joefromdc]

I don't want to stray too far off topic but have been researching organic farming recently and one factoid stood out;- All else being equal soil rich with earthworms can absorb 4.5 times more water than soil without. Of course in order to maintain the worms you have to cut down on pesticides and stop the short term slash and burn agriculture with chemical fertilizers disguising the damage done to the land. This is not a short term problem though it has built up gradually however soil with a humus layer loses far less water in the dry season and so the need to keep so much water in the dams would decrease, which essentially was a major factor in these floods.

That is some really good "outside the box" thinking. I can come up with a couple reasons it probably couldn't be pulled off here, but still, good one mate. You ought to write a letter to the Nation with this idea. It might well get published...

[Arkady]

Govrnment is lost because they cant bribe mother nature

:D