PM Yingluck Reveals Worse Case Scenario

[h90]

the worst case scenario is that PTP continue to rule after the floods.

They have three and a half years left in power, so of course they will still be there unless they call an election

Or they get kicked out either by massive demonstrations or the army. Both wouldn't be the first time in Thai history.

So lets hope that democracy comes back.

[hammered]

the worst case scenario is that PTP continue to rule after the floods.

They have three and a half years left in power, so of course they will still be there unless they call an election

Or they get kicked out either by massive demonstrations or the army. Both wouldn't be the first time in Thai history.

So lets hope that democracy comes back.

Both would just see massive confrontation and further division. Wont happen.

[thaicbr]

the worst case scenario is that PTP continue to rule after the floods.

They have three and a half years left in power, so of course they will still be there unless they call an election

Or they get kicked out either by massive demonstrations or the army. Both wouldn't be the first time in Thai history.

So lets hope that democracy comes back.

Comes back.. Has democracy EVER been here?

[Jingthing]

the worst case scenario is that PTP continue to rule after the floods.

They have three and a half years left in power, so of course they will still be there unless they call an election

Thaksin was the first Thai PM in history to serve a full term, so NOT serving a full term is the usual outcome.

[jehricaholic]

Gee flood waters will be from 10cm to 1meter!!!! That's like saying the Packers will score between 3 and 50 points next game.... this is what happens when a madman like Thaks is able to put in anyone he wants... he could have put a monkey in as PM and the redshirts would have been nodding in agreement.... "redshirt people this monkey very lucky for Thailand... now do you understand I am acting in your best interests"

And on a side note Yingluck's english is absoulutely horrible and embarrassing - I suggest she speak in Thai and use an interpreter... which of you english teacher's here are responsible?

and you are an expert Thai linguist yourself?

[trashy]

I guess when 5pm comes today everyone will down tools for the 5 day holiday, hope the water can read.

[Thaddeus]

The worst case scenario is horrorful, 1.5 meter in the business district. The material and economical losses would be catastrofic.

And with the sea level keep rising, at every strong rainy season like this year affected by the NIna (ENSO negative) phenomena and plus Bangkok sinking some cm a year, this situation will repeat in the future.

There was a plan, a very expensive but effective plan made by Thaksin government to build a system of drainage and artificial canals to prevent this kind of situation.

The plan was cancelled by the military government after the 2006 coup, because it was though "too expensive" > Massive purchases of weapons followed instead.

The economical cost of that plan was nothing compared what Thailand suffers and will suffer in the future with situations like this.

This work has to be done ,even if it will affect the whole year budget. Without that, Bangkok has no future other than be flooded at every peak of the rainy seasons and the whole country will suffer devastating losses. I hope everybody from all parties will understand now there is no alternative.

But everything Thaksin says or does is wrong and bad.

No, not really, but it only happens if it is good for him in some way.

(h90 has already corrected the inaccuracies in the quoted quote)

[hammered]

the worst case scenario is that PTP continue to rule after the floods.

They have three and a half years left in power, so of course they will still be there unless they call an election

Thaksin was the first Thai PM in history to serve a full term, so NOT serving a full term is the usual outcome.

In nearly every parliamentary system elections are called early to time then with a good economy and avoid unseen mishaps. Of course in Thailand in the past coalitions caused government collapse and Thaksin avoided this with an overall majority. Yingluck enjoys the same albeit a smaller one. The 111 issue, and maybe charter ammendments will likely make it an earlier election I would think though

[zydeco]

the worst case scenario is that PTP continue to rule after the floods.

They have three and a half years left in power, so of course they will still be there unless they call an election

Or they get kicked out either by massive demonstrations or the army. Both wouldn't be the first time in Thai history.

So lets hope that democracy comes back.

I would settle for a return to minor competency. BTW, hope all is OK in your part of TW.

[DocN]

the worst case scenario is that PTP continue to rule after the floods.

They have three and a half years left in power, so of course they will still be there unless they call an election

Or they get kicked out either by massive demonstrations or the army. Both wouldn't be the first time in Thai history.

So lets hope that democracy comes back.

That was funny! Really! Good one! Asking for a military coup and ending with the words "so let's hope that democracy comes back!

Ah...I guess, you would't even know why that is funny....

[steveromagnino]

There was a plan, a very expensive but effective plan made by Thaksin government to build a system of drainage and artificial canals to prevent this kind of situation.

The plan was cancelled by the military government after the 2006 coup, because it was though "too expensive" > Massive purchases of weapons followed instead.

Please can you elaborate and send me links; I have recollections of a vague canal system designed NOT to prevent floods, but rather to irrigate Isaan, suggested first in the Thaksin administration, then resurrected by Samak.

I do not recall any sort of an effective plan being disclosed, nor am I aware that any of the main contractors were approached to tender for such a project, nor was there any substantial public involvement in creation of this plan you mention.

Please provide more information and details, because AFAIK it was some vague scheme designed to create a bit of civil work for the backers of TRT, but I do not recall flood prevention, real flood prevention, being part of that. In fact many of the localised floods are the direct result of government civil works undertaken from the period 2000-2005 including floods in Chiang Mai, Korat, etc.

Hence my request for more information.

[maiphedmaiaroi]

Is "Meenburi" mentioned in the article the same place as the I've seen spelled "Minburi"?

Thanks

Most thais spell it menburi or meenburi but on most rd signs its spelt minburi...

Why ask ?surely you knew it was?

Its amazing how people try to pick faults in things. Such negativity. dam_n why did i even bother replying to him ? lol

[whybother]

The worst case scenario is horrorful, 1.5 meter in the business district. The material and economical losses would be catastrofic.

And with the sea level keep rising, at every strong rainy season like this year affected by the NIna (ENSO negative) phenomena and plus Bangkok sinking some cm a year, this situation will repeat in the future.

There was a plan, a very expensive but effective plan made by Thaksin government to build a system of drainage and artificial canals to prevent this kind of situation.

The plan was cancelled by the military government after the 2006 coup, because it was though "too expensive" > Massive purchases of weapons followed instead.

The economical cost of that plan was nothing compared what Thailand suffers and will suffer in the future with situations like this.

This work has to be done ,even if it will affect the whole year budget. Without that, Bangkok has no future other than be flooded at every peak of the rainy seasons and the whole country will suffer devastating losses. I hope everybody from all parties will understand now there is no alternative.

He had a plan, or he talked about a plan. 5 years of total control and nothing got started?

[Sao Jiang Mai]

I don't understand people who get angry at opinions on here and say that forum users should go out and do things rather than discuss them here...firsly, this is a forum, that is what we do, we discuss, secondly, spending a few minutes a day on the forum does not mean that we are not doing our best or our bit for the country and thirdly discourse and debate is a healthy thing. This government did not cause the flood, and it is probably trying to do its best as many red and Yingluck supporters claim, but that is not the point of complaint. The best is not acceptable. The messages being sent are mixed at best and harmful at worst. The cases of partisanship and politiking involved with the floods are applling (goods being repackaged with MPs or Thaksin's faces before distribution, red villages being given priority for supplies, MPs fighting over stored goods in Don Muang so the goods are just sitting there rather than being distributed, politicians jostling for relief funds ownership, the amazingly efficient network of red shirts not being unilised for good, etc. - all this is heavily documented in a variety of Thai forums) and the PM's muddling speech last night, FROC's infighting with ThaiFlood, the US aid being rebuffed, yadayada. It is not acceptable. That is why we complain about the government. And that is why Thai forums and blogs are similarly complaining about the government. This is far from being a farang/ThaiVisa phenomena! Thais are furious. And rightly so.

[saengsureeya]

And on a side note Yingluck's english is absoulutely horrible and embarrassing - I suggest she speak in Thai and use an interpreter... which of you english teacher's here are responsible?

Uhm........Why should she be bothered to speak English? She Thailand's PM and addressing the Thai.Just be thankful that she's doing her best. Maybe you should put some effort in learning Thai instead?

[pastitche]

Gee flood waters will be from 10cm to 1meter!!!! That's like saying the Packers will score between 3 and 50 points next game.... this is what happens when a madman like Thaks is able to put in anyone he wants... he could have put a monkey in as PM and the redshirts would have been nodding in agreement.... "redshirt people this monkey very lucky for Thailand... now do you understand I am acting in your best interests"

And on a side note Yingluck's english is absoulutely horrible and embarrassing - I suggest she speak in Thai and use an interpreter... which of you english teacher's here are responsible?

and you are an expert Thai linguist yourself?

Probably not, and likely not to be a native English speaker - absoulutely and ...teacher's here are responsible.

I love it when a smartass slips on a banana skin

[lujanit]

"Residents in the North and West can expect to see 50 centimeters of flood water."

Well I am in the west (Mahasawat region) and the water is 1.2 metres high outside. My honest opinion is that this government has not a single solitary idea of what is going on or how to manage this disaster. Gross incompetence just doesn't describe the manner in which this mob are handling the situation.

[ginjag]

"Residents in the North and West can expect to see 50 centimeters of flood water."

Well I am in the west (Mahasawat region) and the water is 1.2 metres high outside. My honest opinion is that this government has not a single solitary idea of what is going on or how to manage this disaster. Gross incompetence just doesn't describe the manner in which this mob are handling the situation.

Just sorry so many people are affected here, Maybe I/'m lucky in the N-East I did choose higher ground for my home, and around Udon. I do see that vast amounts of people -expats are re locating up here, Airport Rail. Bus and border crossing near, so many Europeans buying homes as the prices are low.

After, the hardship, time also to re think. Come on guys if you can get out of the low areas. Even later do any of you people think it will not happen again, don't think Thai...act.,,,,,,,,,,sorry if this is no help to you at a bad time, take care as this w/e looks even worse.

[djlest]

SHOCKING!

look at the state of that Thai Airways Aircraft!!

I was an aircraft engineer 10 years ago - and ive worked on better aircraft coming from India or Columbia

Thats absolutely awful -im appauled.

Supposedly thai airways is the numero uno flight company of Thailand and Asia - oh lets blame it on the floods, i dnt think so...

[ginjag]

The engines of Thai Airways airplanes are protected as floods advanced at the Don Muang airport in Bangkok. (Reuters)

http://www.cbc.ca/ne...ok-airport.html

Geez, I love this flood protection...

Yes, let's wrap the engines in plastic, rather than fly the airplane to a safer airport...

I think the plastic are giant condoms -cause if the water depth is deap enough the engines are going to be FOOOKT

[troy04]

Beware that any donations you make to FROC will be repackaged before distributed to the needy with a picture of Thaksin (or other red-shirt superstar) on it. If you have no objections to that, then by all means proceed. Otherwise, find another worthwhile charitable organization to donate to.

Love this one!

[harrry]

Gee flood waters will be from 10cm to 1meter!!!! That's like saying the Packers will score between 3 and 50 points next game.... this is what happens when a madman like Thaks is able to put in anyone he wants... he could have put a monkey in as PM and the redshirts would have been nodding in agreement.... "redshirt people this monkey very lucky for Thailand... now do you understand I am acting in your best interests"

And on a side note Yingluck's english is absoulutely horrible and embarrassing - I suggest she speak in Thai and use an interpreter... which of you english teacher's here are responsible?

and you are an expert Thai linguist yourself?

Thought that should be: is responsible. The use of which is not correct either.

[ResX]

PM Yingluck

Isn't that already the Worse Case Scenario for most people on TV?

No. Try a relative.

That's expat armageddon.

Over the last few days I started to understand the might of Chao Phraya river probably more than the average Thailand citizens understand it. You should know the strength of your enemy, before you can protect your stronghold. The absent of such knowledge you can be beaten because of what you do or you not do.

The average annual rainfall for the whole CH river catchment is about 70billion cubic meter. The average CH river flow measured at its mouth is 2,200 cubic meter per second. From statistical point view putting my experienced in context I would say 98% of the time the annual rainfall for CH catchment is above 45billion cubic meter and 98% of the time it is less than 95billion cubic meter.

Since we know annual average rainfall for CH catchment now we have the idea how we actually can control and mitigate the floods. First of all what size of flood we are going to expect? We are looking for 25% of the annual inflow that falls in a period as short as 7 days. The rainfall of this intensity and duration has 2% probability of concurrence. You are going to see it may come twice every 100 years. This is the least intensity and the highest probability of occurrence for any flood mitigation & control structures have to consider in their design. Therefore we are going to expect the entire 2000++dams in Thailand has the total storage capacity at least 17.5billion cubic meter. Then, Thailand is, partly ready to deal with the biggest flood in 50 years and comes out of it unhurt. I mean partly ready...

Having the reserve storage capacity in one thing. Preparing the reserve against the impending flood is another thing. I have seen many times the flood control managements making a silly mistake by allowing speculations to dominate their actions. I hope this is not the case that put Thailand in this big mess currently.

For a multi purpose dam, flood control requirement is the most compromised requirement. The main reason is flood is speculative in nature. It may come or may not come this year. Releasing more water from the dam that worth USD hundreds of millions, just like that, anticipating future flood that may or may not come is not an easy decision to make. Especially if the decision makers have not been told the damage due to flood could reach hundreds of billions. What I'm trying to say is there is a need for Thailand to regulate all its flood control dams so that such a difficult decision about flood control is state sanction requirement. The basis of the requirement is "the biggest flood in 50 years is going to strike, but we don't know which year from this year up to 50 years future". Let prepare yourself religiously as if it may come every year over the next 50 years. Don't compromise even you have waited for such flood for 49 years without any sign of coming.....

[steffi]

The worst case scenario is horrorful, 1.5 meter in the business district. The material and economical losses would be catastrofic.

And with the sea level keep rising, at every strong rainy season like this year affected by the NIna (ENSO negative) phenomena and plus Bangkok sinking some cm a year, this situation will repeat in the future.

There was a plan, a very expensive but effective plan made by Thaksin government to build a system of drainage and artificial canals to prevent this kind of situation.

The plan was cancelled by the military government after the 2006 coup, because it was though "too expensive" > Massive purchases of weapons followed instead.

The economical cost of that plan was nothing compared what Thailand suffers and will suffer in the future with situations like this.

This work has to be done ,even if it will affect the whole year budget. Without that, Bangkok has no future other than be flooded at every peak of the rainy seasons and the whole country will suffer devastating losses. I hope everybody from all parties will understand now there is no alternative.

But everything Thaksin says or does is wrong and bad.

That would have been considered a mega project and consequently various members of the clan get rich.

Edited October 27, 2011 by steffi

[steffi]

Gee flood waters will be from 10cm to 1meter!!!! That's like saying the Packers will score between 3 and 50 points next game.... this is what happens when a madman like Thaks is able to put in anyone he wants... he could have put a monkey in as PM and the redshirts would have been nodding in agreement.... "redshirt people this monkey very lucky for Thailand... now do you understand I am acting in your best interests"

And on a side note Yingluck's english is absoulutely horrible and embarrassing - I suggest she speak in Thai and use an interpreter... which of you english teacher's here are responsible?

and you are an expert Thai linguist yourself?

Khun Thaksin's wasn't that great either.

[siampolee]

Hotel list with discount prices for flood victims [Thai citizens only] http://is.gd/o7oeSJ /via@RichardBarrow

Here we are in the midst of a national disaster, assorted organisations begging for help from all and sundry and we see the comment above.

Nice to see rampant xenophobia alongside ongoing racial discrimination applies in times of crisis. Many of we dreaded foreigners are married to Thais, we've bred children too, so our family are fine but we are throwaway unless of course money is desired.

I do hope no one comes a calling on me or my wife for a donation, wife is Thai and she is disgusted with the hotel discrimination scheme.

Edited October 27, 2011 by siampolee