Chao Phraya River Set To Brim Over

[thaimat]

To keep things in the context of reality and His history, let's look at who gains by the flooding, and lack of effort to control it's damage. The current Prime Minister's business experience is real estate development. My guess is that the value of riverfront property in Bangkok is in the Billions? As happened in New Orleans USA following Hurricane Katrina, if the authorities do little to control the flooding and it's damage, it's an easy/cheap/free way to pick up vast amounts of very expensive, prime riverfront property, ridding said property of it's poor inhabitants. This is the only answer that makes any sense, as to the questions of why SOE has not been declared, and why the US Navy's massive logistics and manpower help were turned down, in my opinion.

If a state of emergency is declared, the army will be in charge... don't think Yingluck wants that do you?

To keep things in context: me thinks HE doesn't want it!

[bridge2bridge]

The army can help only when the State of Emergency is declared?

Rubbish the ARMY have already been out there helping. However it is too late now for anyone to stop this torrent of water heading to the capitol. According to the world new the high tides and the water heading to Bangkok will clash and overflow the river banks. they also stated that the flood water is approaching from 3 sides. Thailand people are in a heap of trouble.

Unfortunately, they were apparently not asked to help when they could really have meant a difference; building protective dikes starting in July to secure industry estates, homes and jobs for hundreds of thousands of people.

So once again it is all political RIGHT.

[dude007]

Again, I read: "as rising seawater levels add to the woes of the country's raging flood crisis." thereby suggesting that the global warming from the ongoing pollution, climate change and melting ice from the South Pole and from Greenland is to be blamed for the actual flooding in Bangkok. They cannot blame the rainfall anymore (although they did it a few days ago) which has returned to normal since more than one week and getting lesser day by day. But THE REAL PROBLEM of the flooding of the town is carefully covered and not mentioned: the bad coordination between the different services dealing with water management. Huge masses of water from the three big dams in the North are simultaneously being released into the tributaries from the Chao Phraya, and this [these] wave, coming down from the North after a several days journey meet the tidal wave from the spring tides in the sea (twice a moon-month or about every 14 days). Every year it's the same nightmare and coordination seems totally impossible although the issue has been adequately studied in many previous [excellent] reports. The Governmental authority in charge of the dam-management is totally responsible for this deluge for not coordinating the water release with the spring tides which are at its highest in October. FROC has probably no authority on this dam-management and if they do, they do an extremely bad job for which they will be blamed afterwards (more than 370 people have been killed already, not from army-bullets but from the water that is being managed by the Government's FROC)! Yingluck, instead of requesting all the authority and commands to her FROC should better have a more comprehensive look at the problem: nation-wide cooperation between the various authorities dealing with water management and urgently create a sort of Ministry of water management (which already exists but has no authority) that can deal with authority to solve the ENTIRE problem. Big brother Taksin had already suggested this; but maybe she forgot since she has been too busy nominating red shirts in all sorts of useless positions as compensation for the torching of the Rachaprasong area.

People from Bangkok (mainly democrats): be prepared for the worse, it's coming!

[tombkk]

To keep things in the context of reality and His history, let's look at who gains by the flooding, and lack of effort to control it's damage. The current Prime Minister's business experience is real estate development. My guess is that the value of riverfront property in Bangkok is in the Billions? As happened in New Orleans USA following Hurricane Katrina, if the authorities do little to control the flooding and it's damage, it's an easy/cheap/free way to pick up vast amounts of very expensive, prime riverfront property, ridding said property of it's poor inhabitants. This is the only answer that makes any sense, as to the questions of why SOE has not been declared, and why the US Navy's massive logistics and manpower help were turned down, in my opinion.

If a state of emergency is declared, the army will be in charge... don't think Yingluck wants that do you?

To keep things in context: me thinks HE doesn't want it!

Do you really believe someone deliberately wants the flooding so as to profit from it? Which conspiracy website did you get that idea from?

[dude007]

I believe the contradiction is this:

From Article 1

"The Chao Phraya River's water level in Bangkok will likely rise to 2.6 metres [above normal sea level] over the coming weekend. It's going to be higher than the embankment," Bangkok Governor MR Sukhumbhand Paribatra said yesterday.

From Article 2

The level of the sea is expected to rise to about 2.45 metres from Thursday to Monday, though the embankments along Chao Phraya are 2.5m high.

That extra 1.5 meters might make a big difference, I should think. BTW, elsewhere I've read articles on this board that claim the embankment is on average 2.5 meters high. It sure would be nice to know whether that latter number is indeed an average or a minimum.

2.6m - 2.45m = 0.15m or 15cm.

Even my Grade 4 students can do basic addition and subtraction.

:cheesy: that's a good one... :cheesy:

[robsamui]

I've been following this impending disaster from afar (Hawaii) for weeks now. It appears the government is simply not up to this huge challenge. America learned a lot from our own disastrous flooding in New Orleans. Our government also did too little, too late. Too bad the entire military wasn't put to work on this much sooner! Declining assistance from the U.S. Navy was both inexplicable and inexcusable. Drownings, MANY 1000's of displaced families, HUGE property damage, and then the inevitable illnesses caused by contaminated water supplies - it looks like a complete and total catastrophe from here! I pray for the people of Thailand!

At last a response that's clear and objective, uncluttered by references to political squabbles and contradictory government statements.

Thais cannot bear the idea of loss of face. It's losing huge face for the nation's managers to actually admit they can't cope. Then it's losing even bigger face to grovel for help ... from anyone, but from farangs . . . impossible.

The result will, as you perceive, sadly be a national catastrophe that will drag on for months afterwards as the Thais struggle to cope with the disease and destruction.

Sigh.

R

Edited October 26, 2011 by robsamui

[ThaiFelix]

"To cover the entire stretch, we will need up to 10 million sandbags," Sukhumbhand pointed out, "We will have to focus our efforts on the most vulnerable and key spots only."

A few us navy ship full of eager bodies to help... they could have put a big dent in that.

Like New Orleans?

Anyhow, nice offer but bodies float...sandbags are much better........

[thaiorchidsource]

I dissagree to your comment about foreign aid. At the very least the extra help could have helped slow the flooding giving time for more to evacuate. I personally do not think that the water is stoppable. But foreign aid could have provided potable water, food relief and heavy lift capability to delivery with helicopters, hospital and medical supplies relief. The seriousness of this flooding has been grossely underestimated by those in charge, and I think the events will show this as they unfold. Im not going to blame politics or individuals here, because whomever would have been in charge would have likely made the same mistakes. It is one huge big problem that Thailand will suffer from for quite a long time I fear.

So we have the sea level rising to 2.6 metres or is that the level of the river? If it is the level of the river at the river mouth then how does that reduce the further north away from the river mouth you get? And we have the average embankment height at 2.5 metres from where to where - is it higher near the river mouth and lower inland or does it vary arbitrarily?

I cannot imagine the sea level will be 2.6 metres higher than normal - at that level practically all of Bangkok will be flooded - even the highest areas are only 2.5 to 3m or so above sea level. What does sea level mean? Average sea level? Maximum normal sea level or what? I mean does the average sea level go up and down by more than 6 metres? i.e. +2.5m to -2.5m around the average?

What effect does the wind have on the level of the sea and river? If the embankment in parts is averaging 2.5m then even if that were the level everywhere if the river rises to 2.6m then it will overflow by 100mm. Doesn't sound much but that will be just constant water overflow without abatement until the tide recedes and then replenished as the tide comes in and out.

I took a look at the river on the way through Nonthaburi two days ago - it looked to me to be about level with the embankment - well not much of an embankment there as the water is already in all the houses alongside the river and about waist high - let's call that 1 metre. So are we saying the level will rise another 1.5m?

Then in the second snippet we have the sea level going to be 2.45 metres and no problem.

I think the point is that nothing is actually clear and it is foolish to make sweeping statements that it will all be OK or that it will be a total washout. It has to depend where you are, what the real situation turns out to be and how well the flood walls stand up - the latter being the 640 million baht question because I have seen the water rushing out between the old wall and the new section that was built about 25 years ago I think. So water rushing through a concrete joint like that will seriously weaken the wall and I wonder how well the reinforcement inside the walls is standing up to corrosion since it must necessarily be exposed.

My biggest fear about this is that sections of the walls collapse under the added pressure of water - 1 metre of water is bloody heavy and exerts pressure at 1030 Kg per cubic metre at 1 metre depth - just over a tonne! That is a lot of pressure on an old leaking concrete wall extension!

Of course the other thing could be that this is all being whipped up to cause widespread panic so that the politicians can say how brilliant they have been when inner Bangkok doesn't flood and the flood of relief (excuse the pun) when that doesn't happen will pave the way for Thaksin's return amidst waves of glory for him supplying the Thai people with lots of pumps or something, paid for by him with money he has got from ....... (reader to complete) to ensure this never happens again.

Who really knows - for certain I don';t but then I trust no one except my Mum anymore!!

10 million sandbags? Don't need the US Army to help? Hmm who is going to put all these sandbags in place and where is all the sand and bags suddenly going to come from. One ten tonne lorry = about 200 sandbags and we need 10 million in two days - thats 50,000 lorry deliveries in two days - 25,000 a day - hmmm do they have that many lorries?

It's all conjecture on my part I freely admit - I don;t think I am alone in that! All I know is there is no food on the shelves, no drinking water in the shops, the tap water is already contaminated and full of chemicals to keep it potable (we hope) and this tragedy will last somewhere between a little tragedy in some areas to the whole of Bangkok for four to six weeks and we are going to open the schools in three weeks time.

Nothing adds up! Amazing Thailand - it will be a miracle if the masses don't get fooled into believing someone somewhere has graciously helped them. Jeez

good post......

as for the logistics - having seen hardcore delivered a few times - I don't see too big a problem - I also can't see how foreign aid would help that. Roads and access might prove a problem so some bridges and pontoons might help - I expect the Thai army has a few lying around though.

Grade 4 students be aware! -

There is also a common misconception that water is FLAT - it won't be - the tide, currents and winds can lead to big variations in how and where the water builds up - - so quibbling about a few mm here and there is quite pointless.