Bangkok In For 1-Metre Flooding, Says Expert

[Bpuumike]

I'm on mid Sukhumvit. After the barrage of panicked tweets from this forum, RichardBarrows, and the breaking news email alerts, and the sudden public holiday, I expected to wake up today to a scene from a disaster movie. But for as far as I can see from the 20th floor, it is utterly and completely dry.

Maybe I am speaking too soon, but it does seem that there is a bit of scaremongering going on.

There is a disturbing amount of media and government hype and confusion.

I've lost track of announcements over the past week or so, going back to the esteemed Science & Technology Minister's announcement that all Bangkok districts would suffer 0.5 - 1.0m flooding.

Then we were informed last night would be critical. Nothing much new occurred from the reports I have seen so now we are warned about a 1m wall of water about to hit Bangkok. If that doesn't happen, well, we are still going to suffer over the weekend from the worst possible combination of high tides... and on it seems to go.

This is not dismissing the plight of those people suffering severe hardships in the flooded areas outside of Bangkok, but those of us in central Bangkok seem to be given increasing alarming predictions when those made the day before did not occur.

We are aware of the possibilities but do not need to have the threats seemingly ramped up each day as previous predictions fail to occur.

[Murf]

"I am 50 per cent confident that the inner zone of Bangkok will not be completely flooded"

50% unsure also... hedging her bets. In other words, who knows!?

Lets flip a coin.

[SICHONSTEVE]

I'm on mid Sukhumvit. After the barrage of panicked tweets from this forum, RichardBarrows, and the breaking news email alerts, and the sudden public holiday, I expected to wake up today to a scene from a disaster movie. But for as far as I can see from the 20th floor, it is utterly and completely dry.

Maybe I am speaking too soon, but it does seem that there is a bit of scaremongering going on.

There is a disturbing amount of media and government hype and confusion.

I've lost track of announcements over the past week or so, going back to the esteemed Science & Technology Minister's announcement that all Bangkok districts would suffer 0.5 - 1.0m flooding.

Then we were informed last night would be critical. Nothing much new occurred from the reports I have seen so now we are warned about a 1m wall of water about to hit Bangkok. If that doesn't happen, well, we are still going to suffer over the weekend from the worst possible combination of high tides... and on it seems to go.

This is not dismissing the plight of those people suffering severe hardships in the flooded areas outside of Bangkok, but those of us in central Bangkok seem to be given increasing alarming predictions when those made the day before did not occur.

We are aware of the possibilities but do not need to have the threats seemingly ramped up each day as previous predictions fail to occur.

"Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra said yesterday there was a '50-50' chance that flood waters will penetrate Bangkok's central and inner zones, as barriers might not be able to hold back water pouring in from the north".

But she maintained that "I am 50 per cent confident that the inner zone of Bangkok will not be completely flooded".

I see she is hedging her bets now - she must have been very tempted to say that she is 51% sure that it won't be completely flooded as that 1% positve difference would make it appear that she has a grip on the situation and would add some credence to suggest that she has more than an inkling as to what's happening, which unfortunately she doesn't!!!..

[RickBradford]

I am 50 per cent confident....

Translated into English: "I don't have an <deleted> clue."

[SICHONSTEVE]

For what it's worth, I know for a fact that Bangkok has been high on the discussion agenda amongst flood management experts in the Netherlands. I contacted a Dutch engineer friend (one of them) weeks ago about the long term prognosis for Thailand. This I did because I had then taken my first serious look the topographical maps of the Bangkok area, and with a view to rising see levels, one can see that many of the beaches in the bay area will have to give way to water defences. On the phone, I put the idea to him, that if Bangkok will exist at all, a massive rebuild of the dyke system, at the expense of the beaches, will have to have to start soon. Knowing exactly what I was talking about, he simply said: "Absolutely".

If Sasin Chalermlarp has been snubbed for so long, you can only imagine the presssure someone must have been under to accept the engagement of a foreign expert.

If you have not already, I suggest you connect with Sasin Chalermlarp on Facebook, and if you don't understand the Thai language, get someone who does and follow his posts. You can also follow him on youtube. But you will need to copy his name in Thai into the youtube search field once there.

_{Sasin Chalermlarp > ศศิน เฉลิมลาภ}

I don't understand bringing in or using this "Dutch" line of thought or engineering in now? The horse is gone so why have a "Royal Commission" now on closing the barn door. If anything, look at the U.S.recovery program for New Orleans.See where they did it right and screwed up and do it right. Bangkok will survive, has for a very long time and a bunch of farang sitting around armchair quarter backing will help no one. You can study the topog all you want, it helps not at all now. It's like using the Hover Dam as an example to water control that is perfect for Thailand. Thailand has aunique problem unique to Thailand both by topography and social norms. Action is what is needed now, NOT WORDS. I feel the pain the average thai feels with their world underwater. It is a difficult thing to see water coming and there is nothing you can do now. Been there done that. What carried the day was my fellow people, not just thai, NOT saying "som nahm hah" and instead, giving a helping hand.

Research like above is important later, now is now, get to the people that need help, you can't eat or drink sand bags.

This is a good point now is now - topography schemes can come later - now is now!! It's a shame that most Thais in some position of authority don't see it that way - It seems as ifas if everyone in some position of authority ie. the business class and gov officals have completely abandoned the population and left them on their own - It's a shame that the government continues to focus on their skills at predicting the outcome for Bangkok after 3-4 months and adding to this insane daily drama as if the rest of the people don't count. It's a shame that the large Thai companies don't open facilities for helping people. Disease fighting centers, medical and food supply facilities, evacuation resources - trucks, warehouses..etc.. Here they are - check out what they have done so far on their web sites. Little if anything - What about the big Thai companies? What are they doing? Any of them setting up relief centers or medical emergency facilities? Where are they - Red Bull, Charoen Phopkhand, Singha, Thai Air, Preuksa, Seafresh, Bangkok Bank, SCB, Ayudha, PTT, True, AIS, Siam Cement, Central Group, Raimon Land...etc.. ? It's time they were called out - Their lack of support and resources is a national disgrace.Sorry to say, but they will soon have to deal with the aftermath - disease, massive health and medical issues, contamination, monumental health disaster - Cholera, Typhoid, Leptospirosis., Dengue., who knows what, etc? I feel bad for the Thai people who relied on higher levels in their commercial and government sector to back them up in times of emergency are now stuck because of selfish, self centered, self absorbed, elite, privileged arrogance. Now is now - when will they face the facts to help the Thai population overcome the onslaught of contamination and disease and monumental health and medical emergency?

"I feel bad for the Thai people who relied on higher levels in their commercial and government sector to back them up in times of emergency are now stuck because of selfish, self centered, self absorbed, elite, privileged arrogance".

As far as the government side of things is concerned you forgot to mention - incompetent, egotistic, bigoted, uneducated, not fit-for-purpose and any number of negative attributes!! This is why the flood disaster has been handled so abysmally and the people continue to suffer with no end in sight for their personal hell!!!.

[mesquite]

"Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra said yesterday there was a '50-50' chance that flood waters will penetrate Bangkok's central and inner zones, as barriers might not be able to hold back water pouring in from the north".

But she maintained that "I am 50 per cent confident that the inner zone of Bangkok will not be completely flooded".

Or, put another way,"I am 50 per cent confident that the inner zone of Bangkok WILL be completely flooded."

[saengsureeya]

<<< But the Dutch have controlled water,especially sea water for hundreds of years >>>

This year, staying with Dutch friends and travelling around with them up and down their country, I learned a lot about how the Dutch cope with surges of rain or sea water. The canals and other stretches of water are deliberately interconnected so that a surge anywhere spreads around the whole country immediately and raises water levels by centimetres as opposed to metres.

Not SO relevant to a huge country like Thailand and the vast city of Bangkok, I admit. But I have family in Bangkok and am following the information with great concern. I hope the worst does not happen over the next few days or weeks.

You may be right and the /dutch may be experts on dykes, protecting the country against the North Sea, but some years ago major parts of the Netherlands were flooded due to heavy rainfall and overflowing rivers like the Rhine and the Maas. At some point, the sea-dykes were an obstacle in draining the floods into the sea.

At the same time, Germany was suffering from major floods.

I know, all extremes but that's nature. No expert is enough expert to deal with extremes.

[OzMick]

Who let the water build up in the dams to such an extent that masses were released downstream at the height of the monsoon season? High tides are predicted well in advance and push many miles upstream so a man made confluence seemed almost inevitable, or am I imagining some mischief making?

"A Cabinet member blocked the irrigation's plan to release the water from the dam in September. "I shall assume the sole responsibility," he said. /via@ThanongK"

http://www.thaivisa....ost__p__4797084

Anyone wanting to pursue this should go to @ThanongK Twitter page...and you'll see a series of tweets from him yesterday on this subject...

http://twitter.com/#!/ThanongK

The poster is listed on his Twitter homepage as an editor associated with the ASEAN Newsroom...

ThanongKThanong

Now Plamote Maiklad, Smith Thammasiroj share the view that the flooding disasters occur because of water mismanagement.

ThanongKThanong

Another interesting account was that a politican from Suphan Buri also played a role.

But, as best as I can recall, I haven't seen any newspaper article published or TV news report aired as yet that delves into that topic or allegation.

Perhaps they are worried about losing their publishing licence (when the new law gets through)

[Arkady]

Here is a map of Bangkok road elevations from Chula U http://www.chula.ac.th/flood_rest/ in Thai only. It shows all of Sukhumvit from Nana to around Soi 103 as sea level or below with mid-Sukhumvit from Asoke to Soi 26 appearing to be below sea level along with Ekkamai to Soi 103. Most of Petchburi Rd is shown as below sea level from Nana to Srinakarin (Srinakarin is also virtually all below) and beyond. Ekkamai is the only connecting soi between Petchburi and Sukhumvit with information shown which is below sea level and I assume that Thonglor and virtually all of Watthana district is rated as below sea level. The Silom-Sathorn area is shown as slightly above sea level.

Areas like Paholyothin Road in Don Muang are shown as slightly above sea level but it doesn't seem to have done them much good in the face of the torrents from the North. I have no idea whether Sukhumvit's lower elevation means it faces a worse situation or whether areas to the North of it will absorb a lot of water and mitigate things. Also can't say what will be the effect of the higher tides on the way. Yesterday's didn't seem to raise the level of Klong Prakanong noticeably. So far everything has been worse than expected and maybe the government thinks Sukhumvit doesn't need any special warning yet because most residents there now live in condos and it is not worth bothering about the people in houses. Who can say?

[Murf]

I know, all extremes but that's nature. No expert is enough expert to deal with extremes.

Experts usually have forsight though...

i.e If we let all these 5 dams loose at the same time will there be a problem?

[OzMick]

Let us hope you are right!

But the Dutch have controlled water,especially sea water for hundreds of years,

there is even a County in England (EAST ANGLIA) which was/is 6 feet below sea level,

which is now first class farmland,Towns and Villages,all reclaimed land by the Dutch Engineers,around 200 years ago.

They do have the expertise, but they still experienced catastrophic flooding in 1954(?) that makes this look like nothing. I blame them for this current situation. If they had been better salesmen they would have sold Thailand their services and we would have a good system in place now.

Blame anybody but the blameworthy.............................

[hammered]

"A Cabinet member blocked the irrigation's plan to release the water from the dam in September. "I shall assume the sole responsibility," he said. /via@ThanongK"

http://www.thaivisa....ost__p__4797084

I keep hearing this from some thai's. Does anyone have the source on this quote or an news article?

Tanong makes the claim without evidence. He is an extreme yellow supporter. That is the context. It doesnt mean it isnt true but with the source as such most would probably want some evidence.

[hammered]

"Some politicians are willing to let people suffer in order to get rid of the government," he said, adding the Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra was now meeting with a lot of opposition.

Well they certainly wont be government side polticians

[andrewfr]

"A Cabinet member blocked the irrigation's plan to release the water from the dam in September. "I shall assume the sole responsibility," he said. /via@ThanongK"

http://www.thaivisa....ost__p__4797084

Anyone wanting to pursue this should go to @ThanongK Twitter page...and you'll see a series of tweets from him yesterday on this subject...

http://twitter.com/#!/ThanongK

The poster is listed on his Twitter homepage as an editor associated with the ASEAN Newsroom...

ThanongKThanong

Now Plamote Maiklad, Smith Thammasiroj share the view that the flooding disasters occur because of water mismanagement.

ThanongKThanong

Another interesting account was that a politican from Suphan Buri also played a role.

I believe that the big "T" owns around 200,000 rai near Suphanburi with middle eastern partners. Maybe he influenced the famous local politician?

[whybother]

"Some politicians are willing to let people suffer in order to get rid of the government," he said, adding the Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra was now meeting with a lot of opposition.

Well they certainly wont be government side polticians

There has been reports of PT MPs complaining about other PT MPs.

[chadintheusa]

Why is the one thing that the PM sure of is that she won't move FROC hq from a flooded airport running on backup power? Morale is not the most important issue at the moment, and frankly having incompetent leaders is far more demoralizing than having a functional FROC in a new location.

[qualtrough]

Key words in the article - "the worst case scenario" - "could be" - "if dykes

are breached in many areas".<br><br>And the odds of dikes being breached in many areas is what ???  <br><br>Overall the situation with respect to keeping inner Bangkok protected from high water has been working pretty well thus far. If anything there has been, IMHO, too much hype and thus the high levels of hoarding of food and water. <br><br>The Google crisis map here: http://www.google.org/crisismap?crisis=thailand_floods_en   <br>shows the extent of the flooding. I've been monitoring it closely these past few days and there have been no significant increases in the areas inundated. <br>

I thought like you did too. Never imagined we would have water 1.7m above our soi level here off of Phahonyothin. It is rising and headed your way, but stay put if you want.

[ingvar]

I wish people would stop talking about how the dams was full before rainy season. A quick look at Irrigation dept. web site will show that almost all dams in Thailand was close to its low level mark (as it has been every year) before rainy season started. Water is alway released as per policy and management plan every year so that the damns will be full at end of rainy season.

One would think that Thailand should have the world most expertise in flood management? I mean few other countries are flooded so frequently as Thailand? And not only recently but for 100 and 100 of years?

[nikster]

....

_{Sasin Chalermlarp > ศศิน เฉลิมลาภ}

I don't understand bringing in or using this "Dutch" line of thought or engineering in now? The horse is gone so why have a "Royal Commission" now on closing the barn door. If anything, look at the U.S.recovery program for New Orleans.See where they did it right and screwed up and do it right. Bangkok will survive, has for a very long time and a bunch of farang sitting around armchair quarter backing will help no one. You can study the topog all you want, it helps not at all now. It's like using the Hover Dam as an example to water control that is perfect for Thailand. Thailand has aunique problem unique to Thailand both by topography and social norms. Action is what is needed now, NOT WORDS. I feel the pain the average thai feels with their world underwater. It is a difficult thing to see water coming and there is nothing you can do now. Been there done that. What carried the day was my fellow people, not just thai, NOT saying "som nahm hah" and instead, giving a helping hand.

Research like above is important later, now is now, get to the people that need help, you can't eat or drink sand bags.

Best thing I've read so far. That's exactly right. At times like this everyone needs to work together, and the government needs to focus on a Hurricane-Katrina-like situation and prepare for it. Bangkok needs to brace for impact...

As for the government or the opposition doing any of this on purpose. You wish they would be so competent as to do that. In reality it's staggering incompetence, as they have reacted to this disaster in the worst possible way, with misinformation, non-working solutions that may have made things worse, with outright delusion, even. Experts like Sasin have long known that there was no way to stop the flooding - simple math on how much water is coming down vs. how much can drain made that abundantly clear. He couldn't have been the only one. Only the government didn't know until.. what, yesterday?! Sasin said this weeks ago... 16Bn cubic meters of water are coming, 0.5Bn drain every day, 32 days to drain, yet all that water is arriving within the week.

[cmsally]

Let us hope you are right!

But the Dutch have controlled water,especially sea water for hundreds of years,

there is even a County in England (EAST ANGLIA) which was/is 6 feet below sea level,

which is now first class farmland,Towns and Villages,all reclaimed land by the Dutch Engineers,around 200 years ago.

I think you will find that the Norfolk Broads were created by peat digging. The area was not under water 200 years ago. They did however bring into use windmills but these were used to drain some of the marshland for grazing and some of the flooded areas created by peat digging.

[Bpuumike]

I am 50 per cent confident....

Translated into English: "I don't have an &lt;deleted&gt; clue."

Goodness gracious me that's not English, that's good old Anglo-Saxon.

Yes, the lady's a politician (or so we're told) so her first lesson would have been that 50/50 means she's right whatever the outcome, indeed without a #*#//#* clue what it might be.

[serenitynow]

"A Cabinet member blocked the irrigation's plan to release the water from the dam in September. "I shall assume the sole responsibility," he said. /via@ThanongK"

http://www.thaivisa....ost__p__4797084

Anyone wanting to pursue this should go to @ThanongK Twitter page...and you'll see a series of tweets from him yesterday on this subject...

http://twitter.com/#!/ThanongK

The poster is listed on his Twitter homepage as an editor associated with the ASEAN Newsroom...

ThanongKThanong

Now Plamote Maiklad, Smith Thammasiroj share the view that the flooding disasters occur because of water mismanagement.

ThanongKThanong

Another interesting account was that a politican from Suphan Buri also played a role.

I believe that the big "T" owns around 200,000 rai near Suphanburi with middle eastern partners. Maybe he influenced the famous local politician?

You're getting warm now. Thankfullly Nick Nostitz is on the case and all be revealed soon.

Edited October 27, 2011 by serenitynow

[IMA_FARANG]

<<< But the Dutch have controlled water,especially sea water for hundreds of years >>>

This year, staying with Dutch friends and travelling around with them up and down their country, I learned a lot about how the Dutch cope with surges of rain or sea water. The canals and other stretches of water are deliberately interconnected so that a surge anywhere spreads around the whole country immediately and raises water levels by centimetres as opposed to metres.

Not SO relevant to a huge country like Thailand and the vast city of Bangkok, I admit. But I have family in Bangkok and am following the information with great concern. I hope the worst does not happen over the next few days or weeks.

=========================

Not SO relevant to a huge country like Thailand and the vast city of Bangkok, I admit. But I have family in Bangkok and am following the information with great concern. I hope the worst does not happen over the next few days or weeks.

Actually it is. 50 years ago, roughly, Bangkok had a wide-ranging system of Klongs. One of the things that happened during that 50 years is that many of these Klongs have been covered over with roads for "traffic".

I can remember myself in 1979 or 1980 there was still a Klong running the whole length of Sukhumvit road. All that was covered over a few years later by sidewalks (pavements to you Brits). They called it "progress" then.

[ingvar]

does any1 live around Swampy? How does it look over there? likely to flood the airport or not? Have friends coming in over the weekend.

[Arkady]

A quick look at the cabinet line-ups under Abhisit and Yingluck reveals the change of government resulted in no change of minister or party in control at the Agriculture Ministry which controls the Irrigation Dept (RID) that has been responsible for waiting for the height of a well predicted heavier than usual monsoon to release huge flows of water from the dams. Intuitively this continuity of control should have mitigated any ill effects from the transition in government on water management policy during the critical monsoon period. But sadly for Thais and all others that have chosen to reside in the country that was not the case.

That the disaster of managing the dams has occurred is undisputable fact. Whether Thanong is correct is possible but needs further verification. He has a habit of shooting from the hip and coming out with sensational stories like Thaksin's prostate cancer medical emergency and the confiscation of his assets by the UK that later turn out to be pure fabrications. However, while he is a avowed yellow shirt supporter, this is not an attack on the Yingluck government, the red shirts or PT per se. It is tantamount to an attack on the negligence of both Abhisit and Yingluck for failing to provide responsible oversight of a vital element of the tAgriculture Ministry's work after gifting the ministry to a venal SME party, along with the fates and fortunes of millions of Thais. The buck should stop at the PM's desk, in spite of the fractious coalition system.

One of the advantages of the SME parties is that they can join any government. They are unburdened with meaningful ideologies or national policies and, since their sole objectives are money and power for their leaderships, they can blend in easily with the larger parties, which in realty share the same inner value but these have to go to great trouble to construct masks of ideology and natio nal policy agendas. Being constantly in power means you can use state power to intimidate the media and silence any criticism. That, along with general ignorance of water management, may the reason that the media has ignored this story and concentrated on splashing billions of "look bat met" of water around their colorful charts.

Edited October 27, 2011 by Arkady

[whybother]

A quick look at the cabinet line-ups under Abhisit and Yingluck reveals the change of government resulted in change of minister or party in control at the Agriculture Ministry which controls the Irrigation Dept (RID). Intuitively this continuity should have mitigated any ill effects from the transition in government on water management policy during the critical monsoon period. But sadly for Thais and all others that have chosen to reside in the country that was not the case.

<snip>

"the change of government resulted in NO change of minister or party in control at the Agriculture Ministry"

[brianb1944]

It is great that the government has some independent expert advice from a foreign expert.

Also this can be a very subtle ploy to allow the foreigners to announce the difficult news while the government can be shown in a better light by emphasising their relief and humanitarian work.

Unfortunately the article then starts to sink in credibility because another 'foreign expert' who is anomous makes claims which could only be described as inflammatory.

Who ever this 'foreign expert' is has a good grasp of Thai Culture because of his use of the term "sweet things" or subtly say that the government spokesperson has a "sweet mouth" or pak wan.

Unfortunately the quote "Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra was now meeting with a lot of opposition" could be interpreted many ways because the subject of the sentence was left to the readers own particular bias.

Was it 'opposition' to

• her plans for flood relief?
• her plans to save Bangkok?
• her plans then to flood Bangkok?

Or was it that she was meeting with 'opposition' politicians in an effort to have a more unified approach and not to act like a "dysfunctional family"

thank you, you worded it so much better than I could have. I never give credibility to "anonymous sources" having myself been the victim of baseless "anonymous allegations"

[anterian]

Let us hope you are right!

But the Dutch have controlled water,especially sea water for hundreds of years,

there is even a County in England (EAST ANGLIA) which was/is 6 feet below sea level,

which is now first class farmland,Towns and Villages,all reclaimed land by the Dutch Engineers,around 200 years ago.

Sorry Majic, I tried but I really couldn't let your comment stand without commenting. I live in Suffolk, an actual county in East Anglia (which isn't a county) and whilst some land was reclaimed near the Wash (in north Norfolk, maybe even bordering Lincolnshire) and there are some parts of Norfolk below sea level, rest of this region is most certainly not reclaimed as you state. Some of it's being slowly claimed by the sea, e.g. Dunwich area in Suffolk and other specific coastal areas.

Sorry to be off-topically pedantic but I just couldn't let your mis-information go unchallenged.

I lived in Essex, during and after the war, do you remember the floods of 1948?

[anterian]

A quick look at the cabinet line-ups under Abhisit and Yingluck reveals the change of government resulted in no change of minister or party in control at the Agriculture Ministry which controls the Irrigation Dept (RID) that has been responsible for waiting for the height of a well predicted heavier than usual monsoon to release huge flows of water from the dams. Intuitively this continuity of control should have mitigated any ill effects from the transition in government on water management policy during the critical monsoon period. But sadly for Thais and all others that have chosen to reside in the country that was not the case.

That the disaster of managing the dams has occurred is undisputable fact. Whether Thanong is correct is possible but needs further verification. He has a habit of shooting from the hip and coming out with sensational stories like Thaksin's prostate cancer medical emergency and the confiscation of his assets by the UK that later turn out to be pure fabrications. However, while he is a avowed yellow shirt supporter, this is not an attack on the Yingluck government, the red shirts or PT per se. It is tantamount to an attack on the negligence of both Abhisit and Yingluck for failing to provide responsible oversight of a vital element of the tAgriculture Ministry's work after gifting the ministry to a venal SME party, along with the fates and fortunes of millions of Thais. The buck should stop at the PM's desk, in spite of the fractious coalition system.

One of the advantages of the SME parties is that they can join any government. They are unburdened with meaningful ideologies or national policies and, since their sole objectives are money and power for their leaderships, they can blend in easily with the larger parties, which in realty share the same inner value but these have to go to great trouble to construct masks of ideology and natio nal policy agendas. Being constantly in power means you can use state power to intimidate the media and silence any criticism. That, along with general ignorance of water management, may the reason that the media has ignored this story and concentrated on splashing billions of "look bat met" of water around their colorful charts.

An excellent post!

[robokop]

If she "Is Now Meeting With A Lot Of Opposition", it would seem to imply that the "some politicians are willing to let people suffer in order to get rid of the government" people are her own. Certainly it is they without a plan. So, what's the game here?

I said from day one when it was cetain Bangkok was going to be hit flooding that it started to become a political issue, with the yellow shirts, BKK govt trying to protect BKK at the expense of the rest of the country, poor people red shirts, and blame the PM for the Mother Natures flood.