What Do You Think Will Happen After The Flood?

[submaniac]

Yes, I know that the flooding is still occurring, and it is still early to talk about "afterwards" when it is still going on.

But I am very curious about what everyone thinks will happen AFTER the flood, and when the country tries to recover, so I'm putting up a poll for opinions.

First, do you think home/housing prices will go up or down after the flood?

It's like this, there is (at least was before the flood) a glut of condos in BKK. But with alot of residential property needing to be fixed, the reduced supply may increase demand/prices. On the other hand, I think there will also be houses available for those who cannot afford to repair or just want to get out of BKK.

Secondly, what is your opinion of what employment is going to be after the flood?

On one hand, ALOT of the factories and their equipment is going to be destroyed. On the other hand, there's probably going to be a demand for labor to rebuild/repair.

Finally, do you think there will be rioting when all this mess clears up?

One the red/shirt yellow shirt thing was going on, it was really only a minority of the population with strong feelings either way. In this case, pretty much EVERYBODY in BKK is going to get affected by the flood, and ALOT of people are going to get ticked. But on the other hand, the mai bpen rai attitude.

Opinions? This is your opportunity to predict the future before it happens.

[TingTawng]

On one hand, ALOT of the factories and their equipment is going to be destroyed. On the other hand, there's probably going to be a demand for labor to rebuild/repair.

Companies will move away from these areas because even if they rebuild in the same area, what's the point if next year brings more floods. They'll move to places like the eastern seaboard (Chonburi, Si Racha, Rayong) that aren't prone to flooding - there are dozens of industrial estates all along the east coast - and people will follow wherever the work is.

As for residents of the flooded areas, I really think that people who can move will move for the same reasons - what's the point of living in an area that is now proven to be prone to devastating flooding (the way world weather is in the last few years, could be getting worse). If the factory you worked in is flooded and likely out of action for months, you're not going to wait for it to re-open, you'll stay at your relatives hundreds of KMs away and look for work local to there.

I don't know how quick the government can work to prevent future flooding. If they somehow could guarantee flooding would not occur again, it would be a different story (I mean if the government ACTUALLY built something that protected BKK against flooding, not just saying it).

[aneliane]

On one hand, ALOT of the factories and their equipment is going to be destroyed. On the other hand, there's probably going to be a demand for labor to rebuild/repair.

Companies will move away from these areas because even if they rebuild in the same area, what's the point if next year brings more floods. They'll move to places like the eastern seaboard (Chonburi, Si Racha, Rayong) that aren't prone to flooding - there are dozens of industrial estates all along the east coast - and people will follow wherever the work is.

As for residents of the flooded areas, I really think that people who can move will move for the same reasons - what's the point of living in an area that is now proven to be prone to devastating flooding (the way world weather is in the last few years, could be getting worse). If the factory you worked in is flooded and likely out of action for months, you're not going to wait for it to re-open, you'll stay at your relatives hundreds of KMs away and look for work local to there.

I don't know how quick the government can work to prevent future flooding. If they somehow could guarantee flooding would not occur again, it would be a different story (I mean if the government ACTUALLY built something that protected BKK against flooding, not just saying it).

What will happen is that business will go back as usual

Klongs will still be blocked to build condos.

Forests in the central region will keep being destroyed, to build more industrial estates.

but the government will reassure the population by building bigger walls, dams, and dykes, kidding themselves they can get away with it ... until the next big monsoon ...

[TingTawng]

What will happen is that business will go back as usual

Klongs will still be blocked to build condos.

Forests in the central region will keep being destroyed, to build more industrial estates.

but the government will reassure the population by building bigger walls, dams, and dykes, kidding themselves they can get away with it ... until the next big monsoon ...

I think you're right about the government not being able to deal with it, but business is business. A private business isn't slow like a bureaucratic government - they will act fast to prevent further losses. No business is going to simply wash the flood water away and start up again without seriously considering moving their operations elsewhere, and I bet a lot of companies will.

[khaan]

What will happen is that business will go back as usual

Klongs will still be blocked to build condos.

Forests in the central region will keep being destroyed, to build more industrial estates.

but the government will reassure the population by building bigger walls, dams, and dykes, kidding themselves they can get away with it ... until the next big monsoon ...

I think you're right about the government not being able to deal with it, but business is business. A private business isn't slow like a bureaucratic government - they will act fast to prevent further losses. No business is going to simply wash the flood water away and start up again without seriously considering moving their operations elsewhere, and I bet a lot of companies will.

Elsewhere within Thailand or to other countries?

[TingTawng]

What will happen is that business will go back as usual

Klongs will still be blocked to build condos.

Forests in the central region will keep being destroyed, to build more industrial estates.

but the government will reassure the population by building bigger walls, dams, and dykes, kidding themselves they can get away with it ... until the next big monsoon ...

I think you're right about the government not being able to deal with it, but business is business. A private business isn't slow like a bureaucratic government - they will act fast to prevent further losses. No business is going to simply wash the flood water away and start up again without seriously considering moving their operations elsewhere, and I bet a lot of companies will.

Elsewhere within Thailand or to other countries?

I meant elsewhere in Thailand (though who knows...some may give up on Thailand altogether).

[Shotime]

It's really a terrible situation. The aftermath of the floods could be worse than the floods themselves. Dead animals, toxic material seeping into the soil, disease, etc. Tourism will be almost non-existent. It's a shame for Thailand.

[travelmann]

what happened after the tsunami?? repeat it and thats the answer.

[lazygourmet]

Tricky question...

A few months ago, guys from the bank came upon request of my partner.

She wanted to have an evaluation for an eventual sale and/or re-mortgage of her house, as we are planning to spend most of our time either in our Hua Hin or in our Khao Yai places... .

Because of the high standard construction -Land&House-, the neighborhood and the soon to be open "Purple Line" BTS, they said you'd better wait for another few years... then the price will increased.

But for two weeks, there is one and half meter of water in the garden and around the house... and a bit less than fifty centimeters inside.

On the re-mortgage proposal her house was valued at 5.5...

Nowadays, she is starting to receive phone calls offering her instant cash between 2.5 and 3 million for buying that house.

[Banzai99]

Take the money now, if there is another rainy season next year like there was this year, it will be worthless.

[wintermute]

Foreign firms will certainly be calculating in rebuilding costs every decade into their factories and lack of insurance will drive down FDI for sure. After this debacle i'm sure only the most healthy companies (Toyota) with the fattest profit margins and sweetheart deals will stick around.

[zorro1]

Condo prices will rise in the areas that are spared (if any). Where I am its quite surreal with nothing to indicate there is a flood in Thailand. Tourism wont have any effect long term, this will be a distant memory in 6 months

[just_another_guy]

The International companies (mainly Japanese) are not stupid. As we speak their bean counters are in very serious negotiations with the Thai powers that be.

All of them (the companies) feel betrayed as this wasn’t supposed to happen and most of them will be relocating.

The 64 thousand dollar question is will they relocate in Thailand or elsewhere.

Looking at my Chrystal ball again, it is showing me that if the powers that be make some very appealing tax incentives and other benefits to these International companies, then I can see them moving to the eastern seaboard or even south, which would be interesting as it would employ lots of folks in those 3 south provinces that have been at odds with the Thai government for way to many years—and maybe help bring peace to that area.

Just my opinion of course, but I think the CEO’s and decision makers of these major international companies are thinking to themselves:

Fool us once---shame on you

Fool us twice---shame on us

Either way, my money is on International companies making MAJOR changes concerning how they will conduct business in Thailand.

Cheers..

[poanoi]

Coincidentally, My leather crafts woman asked if i knew anyone interested in buying a castle at the water in BKK, i think many will think hard before they buy any house in a place that are at high risk of flooding.

[wintermute]

The International companies (mainly Japanese) are not stupid. As we speak their bean counters are in very serious negotiations with the Thai powers that be.

All of them (the companies) feel betrayed as this wasn't supposed to happen and most of them will be relocating.

The 64 thousand dollar question is will they relocate in Thailand or elsewhere.

About 10-15 years ago the government in the Philippines arrogantly decided to screw multinationals and other companies invested there. Most of them picked up and left to greener pastures (to mostly China) and never looked back. This is why the Philippines, despite the fact that the economy is on life support, has never had a return to the good old days of FDI. Thailand should be very wary of the same thing happening because large foreign multinationals can't be jerked around like some clueless tourist.

[toybits]

Real estate prices at Chiang Rai where there was no flooding problem - will increase!!! Yikes!!!

[LennyW]

I can see a lot of the bigger companies relocating to the eastern seaboard, therefore i can see prices of property in Bangkok comming down and a lot less new builds taking place, property sales slowing.

But on the other hand, if there is indeed a major industrial shift to the eastern seaboard then i can see prices around Pattaya/Chonburi/Rayong rising and an increase in residential sales.

I think employment will be much the same but just in a different location, maybe a momentery hike in employment in the construction of new factories and repairing infrastructure.

I doubt if there will be rioting as a direct result of the floods, however, a change of PM might be on the cards and that may well bring its own set of problems.

[zorro1]

I can see a lot of the bigger companies relocating to the eastern seaboard, therefore i can see prices of property in Bangkok comming down and a lot less new builds taking place, property sales slowing.

But on the other hand, if there is indeed a major industrial shift to the eastern seaboard then i can see prices around Pattaya/Chonburi/Rayong rising and an increase in residential sales.

I think employment will be much the same but just in a different location, maybe a momentery hike in employment in the construction of new factories and repairing infrastructure.

I doubt if there will be rioting as a direct result of the floods, however, a change of PM might be on the cards and that may well bring its own set of problems.

Nah wont happen. Large companies wont relocate after the flood whats the point, damage is already done. However if it happens a second time then yes big problems. If its a 1:50 year event most of us wont even be alive to see it

[MidoriApple]

IMO

The housing will be up-priced due to materials and equipments are over-demanded.

The condominium will get nothing much changed, loads of people don't like living in high-rise home...

They will just re-build their house and this time will make the base higher than normal land-level.

My home has been already 1.2metres higher, this is impacted from our twice time big flooding in last two decades.

The employment should be slow down, especially unskilled labors, cannot hope for 300baht/day, it will remain "just a day-dream".

The Foreign firms will make serious-consideration, although they got catastrophe, but they will be fine with the insurance.

But to re-construct...oh..ohhh... may be they move to other countries which are more calm, Thailand is no more land of smile and cosy living, by politics, riots, and natural disasters.

The local companies, many have to shut down their business especially the small size.. the disaster destroyed more than the physical ways, the mental.

Social Riots:: Remain and more... Have you seen, even we have all whole country the problems, the politicians remained fighting and taken always the opportunities in taking advantage from the disasters.

Political ways: Is time for PM to consider to have some changes in her party, many are not the right men in the right jobs...

[chiang mai]

Yep, property prices in the North, Chiang Mai in particular will increase - will also not be surprised to see businesses that can move relocate to the North, Lamphun, Lampang, Chiang Mai.

[travelmann]

Yep, property prices in the North, Chiang Mai in particular will increase - will also not be surprised to see businesses that can move relocate to the North, Lamphun, Lampang, Chiang Mai.

Yeah until the next earthquake up there then they will fall like a stone.

[chiang mai]

Yep, property prices in the North, Chiang Mai in particular will increase - will also not be surprised to see businesses that can move relocate to the North, Lamphun, Lampang, Chiang Mai.

Yeah until the next earthquake up there then they will fall like a stone.

Rubbish, haven't seen any earthquake damage anywhere in CM in the past nine years and my home's on the 16th floor!

[LennyW]

Yep, property prices in the North, Chiang Mai in particular will increase - will also not be surprised to see businesses that can move relocate to the North, Lamphun, Lampang, Chiang Mai.

And where is the nearest seaport to Chang Mai please?

[chiang mai]

Yep, property prices in the North, Chiang Mai in particular will increase - will also not be surprised to see businesses that can move relocate to the North, Lamphun, Lampang, Chiang Mai.

And where is the nearest seaport to Chang Mai please?

If you were to take a wander around the many business parks in Lamphun (about 15kms South) you would see several large business parks containing a whole host of Japanese engineering and "clean" manufacturing companies, indeed the condo building that I live in houses the many many Japanese families where the husband is on secondment to those business in Thailand for two years - I'll pop out and ask one of them where the nearest port is! Sarcasm aside, there will be businesses that can be relocated quite easily and when faced with a choice of rebuilding in a flood zone or not, I expect those businesses to choose not. There again there are those businesses where the end product is large and bulky and the majority of sales are made overseas and close proximity to a port is critical.

I think it's easy to lose sight of how much Thailand has developed since many foreign businesses began their operations here - since then the infrastructure has been improved and I suspect the rationale for basing a business in the South is not nearly so robust today.

[SantiSuk]

All this talk of companies leaving Thailand is BS.

So, if you have been flooded personally* are you going to relocate or 'rebuild'. If you are going to relocate, are you going to relocate to another country?

There's your answer.

* My heartfelt sympathies by the way - it's easy for us outside the zone to keep discussing the situation as though it's an event for interesting debate; that must be a bit annoying

[BEENTHEREDONETHAT]

All this talk of companies leaving Thailand is BS.

So, if you have been flooded personally* are you going to relocate or 'rebuild'. If you are going to relocate, are you going to relocate to another country?

There's your answer.

* My heartfelt sympathies by the way - it's easy for us outside the zone to keep discussing the situation as though it's an event for interesting debate; that must be a bit annoying

If I was a big business and had to replace equipment and have no assurance that the flood won't reoccur in the near future, I'm outa here. Just relocate in LOS or to another country will depend on the bennies provided by the countries considered. The flood insurance will increase dramatically after the losses suffered from this flood.

[robblok]

Tricky question...

A few months ago, guys from the bank came upon request of my partner.

She wanted to have an evaluation for an eventual sale and/or re-mortgage of her house, as we are planning to spend most of our time either in our Hua Hin or in our Khao Yai places... .

Because of the high standard construction -Land&House-, the neighborhood and the soon to be open "Purple Line" BTS, they said you'd better wait for another few years... then the price will increased.

But for two weeks, there is one and half meter of water in the garden and around the house... and a bit less than fifty centimeters inside.

On the re-mortgage proposal her house was valued at 5.5...

Nowadays, she is starting to receive phone calls offering her instant cash between 2.5 and 3 million for buying that house.

Seriously after a while most will have forgotten it (housing wise). Its a one in 50 plus natural + man made disaster. I am lucky we did not buy a more expensive house around here. We were looking for one half a year ago. I will make a few changes in the house itself but other then that i don't think we will get flooded again. This was mainly a freak accident.

I think businesses might change because its easier for them to go. But if the government gives them nice tax deals and makes new shiny dams many will stay.

Lot of jobs will be lost lot of money too, but then again lot of furniture and construction people will make a lot of money. If there is money for repairs that is.

[thaiphoon]

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