I was just wondering what effect all the flooding and economic dislocation will have on the baht?...

The BOT has already said the GDP will be lowered - There is a bunch of foreign export currency that will not flow in...

The Government will be forced to go on a deficient spending spree to try and fix (appear to fix) a lot of the damage... A big chunk of that will flow out of the country thru Seimens and Mercedes dealerships (Especially if MRT were to spring a leak)...

Many businesses, factories and an airport that were damaged by the flood will most likely not be rebuilt...

Long term many Multinationals will be rethinking their supply chain... Moving to higher ground in say China...

All these factors seem like a perfect storm that sees a lot more money leaving Thailand than coming in...

Maybe a silver lining for those of us retired in the Land of Smiles and opining the days of 45-65 Baht/USD...

Any opinions?...

Edited November 10, 201114 yr by sfokevin

The markets are too busy imploding because of the Euro crisis with the Greeks. AUD dropped about 2% against the BHT today. Figure that one out

Maybe a silver lining for those of us retired in the Land of Smiles and opining the days of 45-65 Baht/USD...

Any opinions?...

why only 65 Baht?

The Thai economy is still much better off than the American economy, and much, much better off than the Euro zone. Much of the government deficit can be cover internally, so it won't put too much downward pressure on the baht. The effect of the missing export is not gonna be felt till the next quarter, and by then there will be a big inflow of money as most companies here are insured abroad. One thing to keep in mind is also that the current 'crisis' in Thailand is not a structural crisis as we see in Europe and America. It might take a minor dip compared to regional economies, but it will soon get back on track.

The Baht is the strongest currency in the world. How else could it get to and stay at the level it has after Military coups, massive national unrest and rioting, devastating floods, a country brought to a virtual standstill. A tourist "high" season that has been compressed over the last few years to Xmas and New Year.

Thailand still has to clean up the mess after the water goes. I understand nothing about currency markets. None of it makes sense. There appears to be no logical pattern.

I only know I pour most of money into a country that also treats all its ex-pats like criminals having to check in with their parole officer and send them packing out of the country to re-apply again to come back and pour more millions of foreign currency back into Thailand's coffers.....

If I had a "rich uncle" and he wanted to live with me and give me thousands of Pounds/Dollars towards a comfortable life style I would not kick him out every 90 days....but I digress this was about the Baht ...answer to the OP - nobody knows.....

baht may be weaken to encourage/maintain export level

true it is very resilient

Edited November 10, 201114 yr by E1717007

Maybe a silver lining for those of us retired in the Land of Smiles and opining the days of 45-65 Baht/USD...

Any opinions?...

why only 65 Baht?

stop teasing

Lonewolf - I'm on a Student Visa and only have to report to immigration every 90 days. Yes, I have to pay for school, but no 'visa runs.'

Maybe a silver lining for those of us retired in the Land of Smiles and opining the days of 45-65 Baht/USD...

Any opinions?...

why only 65 Baht?

stop teasing

No no-one is teasing. When I came here over 7 years ago, it was 75 baht to the British pound sterling. Now it's dropped to 66% of that.

And what is opining? It means to have an opinion, not to wish for.

Edited November 11, 201114 yr by Mister Fixit