Abhisit Vows Not To Exploit Crisis

[Thailand]

And if the elections were to have been held when they were actually due, which was this month November, it would be Abhisits dems who would be getting the flack and heading for an even bigger defeat then they actually had.

Unless of course anyone is naive enough to think the dems would have coped with it better?

Perhaps Abhisit was aware of the coming flooding, bit like Noah, that was to cause chaos in Thailand and arranged the elections accordingly.

Idiot conspiracy theory. You actually believe this?? I feel pity for you.

The pity lies elsewhere if you seriously believe what I posted was my belief.

Are you saying your posts have nothing to do with your beliefs.

Thanks I will keep that in mind when I read them.

Sorry, did I hit a nerve?

It was the post in this thread I referred to not my posts, if you actually read my post you really can't think I was serious about Abhisit having prior knowledge- or can you?

[samran]

And if the elections were to have been held when they were actually due, which was this month November, it would be Abhisits dems who would be getting the flack and heading for an even bigger defeat then they actually had.

Unless of course anyone is naive enough to think the dems would have coped with it better?

Perhaps Abhisit was aware of the coming flooding, bit like Noah, that was to cause chaos in Thailand and arranged the elections accordingly.

Blind Freddy would have handled it better.

Yingluck's J.D is to bring her brother back. She and PT kind of overlooked that they had to run a country in the meantime.

It is a shame, as disasters are usually excellent opportunities for elected politicians to show their true leadership mettle. Yingluck failed, and it is obvious for all to see. Even within her own party she wasn't listed to most of the time.

The dems have been smart, they've stayed schtum and let the government dig its own graves. All they have to do now is spend the next 2 to 3 years exploiting and re-inforcing this impression that this government is filled with a bunch of third string politicians, reminding the people of government incompetence at every turn.

Will it win them an election? Probably not, but it would sure make the next one competitive.

[jayboy]

Blind Freddy would have handled it better.

Yingluck's J.D is to bring her brother back. She and PT kind of overlooked that they had to run a country in the meantime.

It is a shame, as disasters are usually excellent opportunities for elected politicians to show their true leadership mettle. Yingluck failed, and it is obvious for all to see. Even within her own party she wasn't listed to most of the time.

The dems have been smart, they've stayed schtum and let the government dig its own graves. All they have to do now is spend the next 2 to 3 years exploiting and re-inforcing this impression that this government is filled with a bunch of third string politicians, reminding the people of government incompetence at every turn.

Will it win them an election? Probably not, but it would sure make the next one competitive.

Although I might have used more guarded language I don't have an issue with the general thrust of your cooments.

However a few points:

1.There is, like it or not, much doubt in the public's mind whether the previous government would have handled the crisis any better.Politicians always underestimate the public's intelligence and for all the dithering by the current government, most Thais understand the problem goes back decades.

2.The Dems have been quite smart certainly but the picture has not been as clear cut as you suggest.From Abhisit through the ranks there has been criticism, some valid some not at all.Personally I don't have any problem with this.The duty of an opposition is to oppose.Of course the reactionary crazies have seen this crisis as an opportunity but they, along with their cheerleaders, will fall silent as the waters ebb.

3.The mediocrity of the politicians in the PTP is partly of course because the unelected elites through a compliant judiciary banned hundreds of first rank politicians in a manouever that would have been unthinkable in a more developed democracy.In any event there was much mediocrity in the last government.People like Abhisit and Korn were the exception rather than the rule.Remember the thuggish Suthep and the absurd Kasit.My friends in the financial sector in any case tell me the PTP ministers responsible for financial and economic management are very competent.

4.A week is a long time in politics as the cliche has it.There will be other issues to supplant the current disaster.As you suggest the Democrats don't seem to be able to win elections these days.Their challenge is I think to recover their former credibility and ditch its Tea Party element.It can be done but it will mean facing up more courageously to the military hierachy, entrenched feudal interests - in short reconnecting to the Thai people whose cultural subservience is vanishing fast.As I always point out all of this can be seen in other societies.Thailand is not a law to itself

[samran]

Blind Freddy would have handled it better.

Yingluck's J.D is to bring her brother back. She and PT kind of overlooked that they had to run a country in the meantime.

It is a shame, as disasters are usually excellent opportunities for elected politicians to show their true leadership mettle. Yingluck failed, and it is obvious for all to see. Even within her own party she wasn't listed to most of the time.

The dems have been smart, they've stayed schtum and let the government dig its own graves. All they have to do now is spend the next 2 to 3 years exploiting and re-inforcing this impression that this government is filled with a bunch of third string politicians, reminding the people of government incompetence at every turn.

Will it win them an election? Probably not, but it would sure make the next one competitive.

Although I might have used more guarded language I don't have an issue with the general thrust of your cooments.

However a few points:

1.There is, like it or not, much doubt in the public's mind whether the previous government would have handled the crisis any better.Politicians always underestimate the public's intelligence and for all the dithering by the current government, most Thais understand the problem goes back decades.

2.The Dems have been quite smart certainly but the picture has not been as clear cut as you suggest.From Abhisit through the ranks there has been criticism, some valid some not at all.Personally I don't have any problem with this.The duty of an opposition is to oppose.Of course the reactionary crazies have seen this crisis as an opportunity but they, along with their cheerleaders, will fall silent as the waters ebb.

3.The mediocrity of the politicians in the PTP is partly of course because the unelected elites through a compliant judiciary banned hundreds of first rank politicians in a manouever that would have been unthinkable in a more developed democracy.In any event there was much mediocrity in the last government.People like Abhisit and Korn were the exception rather than the rule.Remember the thuggish Suthep and the absurd Kasit.My friends in the financial sector in any case tell me the PTP ministers responsible for financial and economic management are very competent.

4.A week is a long time in politics as the cliche has it.There will be other issues to supplant the current disaster.As you suggest the Democrats don't seem to be able to win elections these days.Their challenge is I think to recover their former credibility and ditch its Tea Party element.It can be done but it will mean facing up more courageously to the military hierachy, entrenched feudal interests - in short reconnecting to the Thai people whose cultural subservience is vanishing fast.As I always point out all of this can be seen in other societies.Thailand is not a law to itself

You've outlined alot of what I've been thinking but simply have been too lazy to write here, or have partly articulated in other threads. Working through your points in reverse:

4) Certainly a week is a long time in politics, and things can change. The Dems have huge internal challenges and I've said this elsewhere before, and as you say, will have to confront their immediate past (and the consequences of that), as well their long term associations. Akin to Labo(u)r in the UK and Australia distancing themselves from their historical subservience to the trade union movement (though perhaps that is a bad analogy) . Until they face up to the fact that to be in politics you actually have to deal with people on the ground and win them over, then the Dems will be a party of solid relatively modern policies as part of their platform, but will never be able to scrape together enough votes to win a majority.

3) True, I do wonder what happens when the 5 year ban is up. The job of the opposition now is to re-enforce the perception of fallibility in PT. Throw enough mud and it will stick, and no matter how how good the replacements are, the PT government will always be tarred.

In terms of economic credibility, I agree, but then again most Thai governments of any stripe are usually good at putting in uncontroversial economic technocrats into the MOF job. I know a few of them and for the most part the MOF and its leadership are a good bunch of policy makers in the Thai context. Same with Energy. No matter what side of politics they appear to be on, they are all a club to themselves, know each other and generally respect each other. It is good that that can be the case, primarily due to the fact that MOI is where most of the corrupt pollies want to get, and hence tends to be one of the more powerful ministries leaving the MOF to get on and do its job, unlike the west where Treasury tends to be the second most important and politically sought after positions, after the leadership of course.

2) No argument there

1) True that the Dem's (especially Abhisit) suffered from the 'talking the talk, but not walking the walk' perception while Thaksin has an almost god like reputation of omnipitence and being able to 'achieve' things, despite, in my opinion, of a lousy record of reform and mismanagement when they were in office (an opinion I'm sure many will disagree with). But, hopefully the PT aura of invincibility has now been wiped away and being able to 'do things', or at least there are now huge doubts in the mind of Thai's that PT can actually get things right.

It is pure speculation of course whether Abhisit would have done a hugely better job, and we'll never know now.

But in situations like this, there is the Deer in Headlights model of leadership which Yingluck displayed, or the alternatives, including the assertive Rudi Gulliani style shown in the immediate aftermath of 9-11 or even more recently, the Anna Bligh (Premier of Queensland) style of leadership shown during and in the aftermath of this years devastating Queensland floods where she took control of communications and became the focal point of all people during the disaster, providing round the clock updates herself and only bringing in a few choice heads of the emergency services to talk on the specifics. Both were running rather tired and in the Queensland case, a rather dysfunctional government, but when disaster struck they managed to rise above the frey and somehow channel authority they once lacked to bring things together and make them work.

I would have though that Yingluck and PT, for all their skill in media manipulation, would have taken the Anna Bligh route, and it surprised me when they didn't. Whether this points to some sort of malaise in the organisational structure of PT I don't know, but they even failed with the basic bread and butter stuff which they've traditionally been good at (ie spin and communication), which is concerning for me when trying to decide their overall goverance credentials, and has started to reinforce my original view that they only saw their job to bring Dear Leader back and act as his cheer squad in the mean time.

Edited November 13, 2011 by samran

[jayboy]

It is pure speculation of course whether Abhisit would have done a hugely better job, and we'll never know now.

Again very little I take issue with (which shows that with members of different politics there can be considerable overlap of agreement).

The example of the Labour Parties of UK/Aus putting distance between themselves and the Trade Unions had not occurred to me before, but it is a very good parallel for the Dems - ultimately dictated by electoral logic of course.Perhaps that's why some elements of the Thai elite hate representative democracy so much (though they normally disguise this by venting hatred on politicians as a breed).That doesn't mean bureaucrats (and Thailand has some brilliant ones) don't have a key role but they must be subject ultimately to the people through elected representatives and ministers.At powerful Ministries like MOF and at the Bank of Thailand it's quite striking how much continuity there has been through different administrations.

If one had to choose between Yingluck and Abhisit for administrative competence there's not much of a contest really.Yingluck's nomination was a stroke of genius but I can't see her other than a temporary expedient.I hope she lasts a couple of years though in the job.Certainly she's dithered in the current crisis but on the other hand I think those who hate her (including one or two strange obsessives on this forum I'm afraid) underestimate the appeal of her sunny and non - confrontational personality.She appeals to something quite deep rooted in Thai culture I have been told by Thai friends who are at odds with her politics.But she's an amateur and that can't be denied.

I have abbreviated quoting your post for brevity's sake.Hope that's ok.

[hellodolly]

Blind Freddy would have handled it better.

Yingluck's J.D is to bring her brother back. She and PT kind of overlooked that they had to run a country in the meantime.

It is a shame, as disasters are usually excellent opportunities for elected politicians to show their true leadership mettle. Yingluck failed, and it is obvious for all to see. Even within her own party she wasn't listed to most of the time.

The dems have been smart, they've stayed schtum and let the government dig its own graves. All they have to do now is spend the next 2 to 3 years exploiting and re-inforcing this impression that this government is filled with a bunch of third string politicians, reminding the people of government incompetence at every turn.

Will it win them an election? Probably not, but it would sure make the next one competitive.

Although I might have used more guarded language I don't have an issue with the general thrust of your cooments.

However a few points:

1.There is, like it or not, much doubt in the public's mind whether the previous government would have handled the crisis any better.Politicians always underestimate the public's intelligence and for all the dithering by the current government, most Thais understand the problem goes back decades.

2.The Dems have been quite smart certainly but the picture has not been as clear cut as you suggest.From Abhisit through the ranks there has been criticism, some valid some not at all.Personally I don't have any problem with this.The duty of an opposition is to oppose.Of course the reactionary crazies have seen this crisis as an opportunity but they, along with their cheerleaders, will fall silent as the waters ebb.

3.The mediocrity of the politicians in the PTP is partly of course because the unelected elites through a compliant judiciary banned hundreds of first rank politicians in a manouever that would have been unthinkable in a more developed democracy.In any event there was much mediocrity in the last government.People like Abhisit and Korn were the exception rather than the rule.Remember the thuggish Suthep and the absurd Kasit.My friends in the financial sector in any case tell me the PTP ministers responsible for financial and economic management are very competent.

4.A week is a long time in politics as the cliche has it.There will be other issues to supplant the current disaster.As you suggest the Democrats don't seem to be able to win elections these days.Their challenge is I think to recover their former credibility and ditch its Tea Party element.It can be done but it will mean facing up more courageously to the military hierachy, entrenched feudal interests - in short reconnecting to the Thai people whose cultural subservience is vanishing fast.As I always point out all of this can be seen in other societies.Thailand is not a law to itself

Some good points but I think a few of them might not be the true picture today.

1 What with the army helping out as much as they have in this crisis the Thai's might see them in a different lite.:jap:

2 I copied this from your number 1 point.

"Politicians always underestimate the public's intelligence"

I don't really think so look at all the preposterous promises they made to get elected and they worked.

They worked so well that the government feels it dosen't need to tell the population what is happening or about to happen.

A different story every time they open their mouth.