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Thailand growth picks up, floods force outlook cut

BANGKOK, November 21, 2011 (AFP) - Thailand's economic growth accelerated in the third quarter on the back of stronger exports but devastating floods have forced the government to cut its 2011 forecast, official data showed Monday.

Gross domestic product (GDP) rose 3.5 percent year-on-year in the three months through September, after climbing a revised 2.7 percent in the previous quarter, the National Economic and Social Development Board said.

"The rebound in the third quarter was due to the recovery of exports in the industrial sector, which was affected by the earthquake and tsunami in Japan," NESDB secretary-general Arkom Termpitayapaisit said at a briefing Monday.

Thailand’s GDP gained 0.5 percent in the third quarter from the previous three months, the NESDB reported.

But the NESDB revised its 2011 growth forecast to 1.5 percent, down from 3.5-4.0 percent previously, blaming the massive floods that are still affecting large areas of the country.

The flooding, triggered by months of unusually heavy rains, have killed more than 600 people and damaged the homes and livelihoods of millions around the country.

The waters also forced the closure of thousands of factories -- interrupting global supply chains, putting more than half a million people temporarily out of work and costing the economy billions of dollars.

-- (c) Copyright AFP 2011-11-21

[SantiSuk]

Putting all that together seems to me to be implying that the fourth quarter is expected to be a recessionary (negative growth) quarter in Thailand. Not surprising if that will be the case given the tremendous and legthy damage in vast swathes of Thailand's industrial heartland and the less significant setback to the tourist industry. But somehow the dozy Thai press seem not to have picked up on such a stark conclusion? Perhaps the SET will finally drop significantly once the penny drops.