NotEinstein Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Hi guys, I made an epl predictions site and have it in a reasonable state for use (a few of us having been playing it for the last couple of seasons, so there is history to view). If anyone would like to take a look and pass on observations/suggestions for improvement I am happy to modify. And of course if anybody wants to join in they are most welcome........... the site is epl.thaiholiday.biz DaveL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Abrak Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I looked into this subject... First I calculated the most probable scores..... 1-0 ( 11.1 %) 1-1 ( 10.6 %) 2-1 ( 9.4 %) 2-0 ( 9.1 %) 0-0 ( 8.7 %) 1-2 ( 5.8 %) 3-1 ( 4.7 %) 3-0 ( 4.4 %) 2-2 ( 4.3 %) 1-3 (2.4%) Then I calculated the most probable outcomes using the basic 50/25/25 rule and adapting it for each club. Then I adjusted each club based on their defensive/attacking scoring ratio. Then I back tested the data to see if the results were significant. Which they werent. So then I went back to looking at FIFA12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrRed Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 then you never joined the prediction comp! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrbojangles Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Abrak. Are you any good on spreadsheets? Excel in particular. I could do with a hand to make my precictions league spreadsheet a tad less labour intensive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Abrak Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Abrak. Are you any good on spreadsheets? Excel in particular. I could do with a hand to make my precictions league spreadsheet a tad less labour intensive. Nearly always nothing quite works that. So I for instance would spend hours working on a model that would automatically spill out your results. Someone else would spend a few minutes each week trying to work them out. At the end of the day you probably both spend the same amount of time. And I suspect predict the results with about the same amount of accuracy. Theoretically a model based approach should win because of the dynamics of the game but I am not convinced. But I am pretty convinced that if you automate your forecasting system the time it will take you to do it effectively will roughly equate to not bothering to do it at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrbojangles Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 A simple "no" would have sufficed Abs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Abrak Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 A simple "no" would have sufficed Abs Perhaps.....but it is the usual question.....if you do all the work can I please have the answers..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Abrak Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Abrak. Are you any good on spreadsheets? Excel in particular. I could do with a hand to make my precictions league spreadsheet a tad less labour intensive. Actually for more fun, I will make this bet. Take your top 8 predictors and I bet I will beat them all over a season on a 50:50 basis. Meaning I think there is at least a 50% chance I will beat all of them. You can have a few more players but you have to give better odds. I will offer dinner out for everyone and unlimited drinks afterwards. You guys need to offer something comparable. Giving me dinner and drinks is not comparable. A signed Liverpool shirt would certainly be. Just for fun...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrRed Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 here we go again..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrbojangles Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 A simple "no" would have sufficed Abs Perhaps.....but it is the usual question.....if you do all the work can I please have the answers..... I think you got hold of the wrong end of the stick. I wasn't asking you to help me predict. I currently put all players scores in a spreadsheet and have to add the scores up later. Albeit I have already automated quite a lot of it, it is still labour intensive, so was asking if someone who knows excel better than I could do some inprovements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Abrak Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 A simple "no" would have sufficed Abs Perhaps.....but it is the usual question.....if you do all the work can I please have the answers..... I think you got hold of the wrong end of the stick. I wasn't asking you to help me predict. I currently put all players scores in a spreadsheet and have to add the scores up later. Albeit I have already automated quite a lot of it, it is still labour intensive, so was asking if someone who knows excel better than I could do some inprovements. Dont worry.... just generally whinging.... nobody likes stats unless someone else calculates them for them. And models are useless unless someone else makes them for you. Imagine Comolli all he does is stats, people ask him for them, if he doesnt know them they tell him to go and get them and then they tell him they are useless in any case. BTW there are much more interesting programs around to do this stuff or do it for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrbojangles Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 BTW there are much more interesting programs around to do this stuff or do it for you. Don't keep me in suspension. Which ones and are they for free? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrRed Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Lol,this is funny! Abrak's like one of those blokes who comes and sits next to you in the pub and starts talking to you when you are reading the paper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotEinstein Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 mrbojangles I have made a fully automated (apart from the players inputting their predictions) web-site that produces reports, stats and graphs, head to head and ongoing totals status, accuracy per team, and even epl tables based on the players predictions. If you want a modified version to suit your particular game, I'm willing to set it up for you. If not, I used to work quite a bit with excel, so could probably help you there too...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Abrak Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 (edited) BTW there are much more interesting programs around to do this stuff or do it for you. Don't keep me in suspension. Which ones and are they for free? I like this one.... http://www.src-development.net/ I use this one.... http://www.castrolfootball.com/ http://www.eplindex.com/ http://www.soccerbyt...eague-this.html http://www.leadersinperformance.com/the-leader/prozone-analysis-home-advantage/ Edited February 16, 2012 by Abrak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrbojangles Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 mrbojangles I have made a fully automated (apart from the players inputting their predictions) web-site that produces reports, stats and graphs, head to head and ongoing totals status, accuracy per team, and even epl tables based on the players predictions. If you want a modified version to suit your particular game, I'm willing to set it up for you. If not, I used to work quite a bit with excel, so could probably help you there too...... That would be very much appreciated. We've been running our own competition on here for about 4 years now or is it 5. The scoring is a bit more complicated than yours as we have bankers which double the score for your chosen banker game. If you could e-mail me at [email protected] I will send you the current spreadsheet I use. Any improvements you could make would be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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