Iran halts oil exports to British, French firms

[flying]

You would no doubt during WWII have also argued in favour of U.S isolationism, however the truth is inescapable with Iran, just as it was with Nazi Germany that however they came into being they both pose a dire threat to world peace and only the most rabid moral relativist would argue the same about their enemies.

Kind of stretching the topic as usual eh SD?

I cannot help but notice as is your style....

To your OT question.............No never in favor of isolationism now or would have been then.

It is those that impose sanctions that are the isolationist.

The funny thing about your Iranian twist of "inescapable truth" is that is could more easily be applied to Israel & others who actually do threaten world peace TODAY

But of course you cannot see that....due to pom poms obscuring your view

[Scott]

Please be civil to one another. Historical perspectives can be helpful, but here they are simply being used against other posters. It takes the thread off-topic.

Countries have said they won't buy Iranian oil. Now Iran says they won't sell them oil.

[flying]

It is good to look at the media reporting of sanctions from both sides.....

This one seems quite level headed...

War is an unthinkable alternative, because any conflict between a regional powerhouse such as Iran and the West could spark an international crisis. The world economy is too fragile to take any major shock, and it is in the interest of the international society to find a peaceful and diplomatic solution to the Iranian nuclear program lest we risk an even deadlier global economic recession. Negotiations are not supposed to resolve outstanding ideological and strategic differences, but they are a crucial and necessary step in building confidence and overcoming deep sense of mutual distrust between parties.

Why Iran can withstand the sanctions

Edited February 20, 2012 by flying

[flying]

Also in regards to Sanctions.....Not all powers will agree of course...

But it is interesting to see India a nuclear power saying it is not the US place to decide to buys oil from Iran nor

that it should even be paid for in US Dollars.

That paying for or selling of oil in anything less that USD has gotten a few folks killed in the past

India importing Iran oil, slap in face for US: Ex-US Official

'India to buy Iran oil in gold not dollars'

[Ulysses G.]

This one seems quite level headed...

"Level headed" from the Tehran Times.

[Wallaby]

Also in regards to Sanctions.....Not all powers will agree of course...

But it is interesting to see India a nuclear power saying it is not the US place to decide to buys oil from Iran nor

that it should even be paid for in US Dollars.

That paying for or selling of oil in anything less that USD has gotten a few folks killed in the past

India importing Iran oil, slap in face for US: Ex-US Official

'India to buy Iran oil in gold not dollars'

That is exactly right. The oil is Iran's, who has the right to tell them who they want to sell it to and how they want to sell it.

[Wallaby]

This one seems quite level headed...

"Level headed" from the Tehran Times.

So care to expand, maybe explain what part of it you don't agree with instead of just trolling.

[Ulysses G.]

Some things do not need to be explained. Most people can figure it out on their own.

Edited February 21, 2012 by Ulysses G.

[Scott]

The next personal remark addressed to another poster is going to earn a nice lengthy suspension.

There will be no sanctions. I will take no prisoners.

Please re-read the forum rules. You agreed to them when you signed up.

[Scott]

One post deleted and a suspension given.

[Scott]

Another post deleted.

[airconsult]

On topic...

AP Moller-Maersk has announced they have stopped shipping Iranian Oil, I assume BP as well?

(Maersk shipping operates over 140 tankers) and my assumption with BP shipping (57 very large vessels, 27 regional) is because they have stopped refueling Iranian airlines.

When you add Frontline (Norwegian, largest tanker fleet), and Shell - you're really cutting into the shipping companies that can do any business with Iranian oil. I guesstimate that covers about 50% of the world's oil tankers in those 4 companies......

edited for reuters with Moller-Maersk statement http://www.reuters.c...E8171T720120208

Edited February 21, 2012 by airconsult

[Scott]

Thank you for that informative post and link.

[Steely Dan]

http://disasteremergencysupplies.com/snafu/2012/02/drumbeats-of-war-race-to-cut-iranian-oil-to-eu/

Here is my speculation. Israel have lost patience with U.S procrastination over Iran and are going to take matters into their own hands. Obama is scheduled to meet Netanyahu on March 5th, which is well flagged. There are far too many so called false flags being called at present, but I suspect military action may take place before this date and the announcement of the meeting may be intended to fool Iran and perhaps stop them from cutting off oil to more E.U Countries in the short term, until they secure alternative supplies.

[airconsult]

http://disasteremerg...nian-oil-to-eu/

Here is my speculation. Israel have lost patience with U.S procrastination over Iran and are going to take matters into their own hands. Obama is scheduled to meet Netanyahu on March 5th, which is well flagged. There are far too many so called false flags being called at present, but I suspect military action may take place before this date and the announcement of the meeting may be intended to fool Iran and perhaps stop them from cutting off oil to more E.U Countries in the short term, until they secure alternative supplies.

Well... there are elections in March in Iran as well, plus of course the US has already indicated the extension of sanctions to any company that is doing business in Iranian oil.

Jan 18 - A Chinese Oil Trading company became a target of US sanctions http://www.seanews.com.tr/article/TURSHIP/ENERGY/74395/China-Iran-US-Sanctions/

At the moment no more palm oil from Malaysia (payments problems), almost no more rice from india (payments problems), the rial has halved in value.... Actual outside military action may not be needed when people cannot buy food.

[Jingthing]

I am not certain Israel will bomb Iran's nuclear facilities. There are so many caveats such as how effective will it be and the expected retaliation which could potentially mean the evacuation of Tel Aviv. This decision is among the biggest in Israeli history and there are strong forces on both sides of the decision. Yet, if I had to bet, I would say they will do it. The key reasons being they have an effective air route now over Jordan and Iraq and the calculation that if they wait much longer there will be NO chance of an effective result; at least now there is some chance. As far as American direct involvement, that will come of course if Iran asks for it by attacking American targets. I also assume if Iran goes on a big attack on civilian Israel rather than military targets, Obama will have no choice.

Edited February 21, 2012 by Jingthing

[flying]

Jan 18 - A Chinese Oil Trading company became a target of US sanctions http://www.seanews.c...n-US-Sanctions/

At the moment no more palm oil from Malaysia (payments problems), almost no more rice from india (payments problems), the rial has halved in value.... Actual outside military action may not be needed when people cannot buy food.

In regards to that article you linked ...

CHINA's foreign ministry has criticised the US over the weekend for levying sanctions against a Chinese oil trading company with business in Iran, calling the move "unreasonable" and inconsistent with UN Security Council resolutions, reports London's Financial Times

China has every right to be upset.

They should in turn stop floating the US debt / buying US treasuries & increase their physical gold even more than they have.

Then they too may start trading freely in something other than a quickly sinking USD

As for India & payment problems for rice...Seeing as India has already paid gold for Iranian oil recently I would not be surprised to see fair trade worked out in the future of rice for oil.

Edited February 21, 2012 by flying

[airconsult]

Jan 18 - A Chinese Oil Trading company became a target of US sanctions http://www.seanews.c...n-US-Sanctions/

At the moment no more palm oil from Malaysia (payments problems), almost no more rice from india (payments problems), the rial has halved in value.... Actual outside military action may not be needed when people cannot buy food.

In regards to that article you linked ...China has every right to be upset.

They should in turn stop floating the US debt / buying US treasuries & increase their physical gold even more than they have.

Then they too may start trading freely in something other than a quickly sinking USD

As for India & payment problems for rice...Seeing as India has already paid gold for Iranian oil recently I would not be surprised to see fair trade worked out in the future of rice for oil.

Yes..... but then any Indian shipping company with tankers (or indeed any Indian oil trading company) would not be allowed to do any business with the US..... difficult choice for them..... And while China has been trying to promote using the yuan in trade, not too many countries are willing since the value is artificially set, not floated.

Edit - sorry the reference to the Yuan in trade, was in response to not supporting the US dollar.

Cheers

Edited February 21, 2012 by airconsult

[Steely Dan]

http://disasteremerg...nian-oil-to-eu/

Here is my speculation. Israel have lost patience with U.S procrastination over Iran and are going to take matters into their own hands. Obama is scheduled to meet Netanyahu on March 5th, which is well flagged. There are far too many so called false flags being called at present, but I suspect military action may take place before this date and the announcement of the meeting may be intended to fool Iran and perhaps stop them from cutting off oil to more E.U Countries in the short term, until they secure alternative supplies.

Well... there are elections in March in Iran as well, plus of course the US has already indicated the extension of sanctions to any company that is doing business in Iranian oil.

Jan 18 - A Chinese Oil Trading company became a target of US sanctions http://www.seanews.c...n-US-Sanctions/

At the moment no more palm oil from Malaysia (payments problems), almost no more rice from india (payments problems), the rial has halved in value.... Actual outside military action may not be needed when people cannot buy food.

Interesting. Though a la North Korea I doubt the small matter of people starving would make much of an impression with the Iranian regime. I had a quick look at the oil price and really there is nothing out of the ordinary considering the geopolitical tensions, so I did a little digging.

The Baltic dry index is a measure of world sea freight activity and here I do indeed see problems plus a reason for the oil price not going through the roof. The index is seen as a leading indicator for the global econony, and contrary to what the stock market is saying it is predicting a big recession. This of course would constrain world demand for oil and paradoxically may provide an opportunity to tackle Iran whilst their oil card is not in such high demand.

I know it's a little O/T but here is an article about the current BDI which bears out my speculation about petroleum use.

http://www.wikinvest.com/wikinvest/api.php?action=viewNews&aid=1233105&page=Index%3ABaltic_Dry_Index_-_BDI_%28BALDRY%29&wire=1&format=html&comments=0

f the global economy is not heading for a recession, then why is global shipping slowing down so dramatically? Many economists believe that measures of global shipping such as the Baltic Dry Index are leading economic indicators. In other words, they change before the overall economic picture changes. For example, back in early 2008 the Baltic Dry Index began falling dramatically.

[Pakboong]

http://disasteremerg...nian-oil-to-eu/

Here is my speculation. Israel have lost patience with U.S procrastination over Iran and are going to take matters into their own hands. Obama is scheduled to meet Netanyahu on March 5th, which is well flagged. There are far too many so called false flags being called at present, but I suspect military action may take place before this date and the announcement of the meeting may be intended to fool Iran and perhaps stop them from cutting off oil to more E.U Countries in the short term, until they secure alternative supplies.

I don't quite understand how it is that the US is procrastinating with regard to attacking a country that poses no threat to them. I do understand why Israel wants to attack but for the US to risk its young to such a cause is really stupid IMO. Every key member of the US Military and Intelligence agencies have gone on record saying that it would be foolish to attack Iran now. That is not procrastination, that is why these people have the positions that they have. The names of these individuals are too numerous to list and all say pretty much the same thing. They start with the Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff on down.

[Pakboong]

http://disasteremerg...nian-oil-to-eu/

Here is my speculation. Israel have lost patience with U.S procrastination over Iran and are going to take matters into their own hands. Obama is scheduled to meet Netanyahu on March 5th, which is well flagged. There are far too many so called false flags being called at present, but I suspect military action may take place before this date and the announcement of the meeting may be intended to fool Iran and perhaps stop them from cutting off oil to more E.U Countries in the short term, until they secure alternative supplies.

Well... there are elections in March in Iran as well, plus of course the US has already indicated the extension of sanctions to any company that is doing business in Iranian oil.

Jan 18 - A Chinese Oil Trading company became a target of US sanctions http://www.seanews.c...n-US-Sanctions/

At the moment no more palm oil from Malaysia (payments problems), almost no more rice from india (payments problems), the rial has halved in value.... Actual outside military action may not be needed when people cannot buy food.

Interesting. Though a la North Korea I doubt the small matter of people starving would make much of an impression with the Iranian regime. I had a quick look at the oil price and really there is nothing out of the ordinary considering the geopolitical tensions, so I did a little digging.

The Baltic dry index is a measure of world sea freight activity and here I do indeed see problems plus a reason for the oil price not going through the roof. The index is seen as a leading indicator for the global econony, and contrary to what the stock market is saying it is predicting a big recession. This of course would constrain world demand for oil and paradoxically may provide an opportunity to tackle Iran whilst their oil card is not in such high demand.

I know it's a little O/T but here is an article about the current BDI which bears out my speculation about petroleum use.

http://www.wikinvest...html&comments=0

f the global economy is not heading for a recession, then why is global shipping slowing down so dramatically? Many economists believe that measures of global shipping such as the Baltic Dry Index are leading economic indicators. In other words, they change before the overall economic picture changes. For example, back in early 2008 the Baltic Dry Index began falling dramatically.

I have been watching the Baltic Dry Index as well and I have similar conclusions.

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/why-is-global-shipping-slowing-down-so-dramatically

Edited February 21, 2012 by Pakboong

[Ulysses G.]

I don't quite understand how it is that the US is procrastinating with regard to attacking a country that poses no threat to them.

Iran does pose a threat to the US. They claim to be well on the way to a missle that will reach the USA and they have threatened to cause disruptions to the oil supply which would affect the whole planet.

[Steely Dan]

http://disasteremerg...nian-oil-to-eu/

Here is my speculation. Israel have lost patience with U.S procrastination over Iran and are going to take matters into their own hands. Obama is scheduled to meet Netanyahu on March 5th, which is well flagged. There are far too many so called false flags being called at present, but I suspect military action may take place before this date and the announcement of the meeting may be intended to fool Iran and perhaps stop them from cutting off oil to more E.U Countries in the short term, until they secure alternative supplies.

I don't quite understand how it is that the US is procrastinating with regard to attacking a country that poses no threat to them. I do understand why Israel wants to attack but for the US to risk its young to such a cause is really stupid IMO. Every key member of the US Military and Intelligence agencies have gone on record saying that it would be foolish to attack Iran now. That is not procrastination, that is why these people have the positions that they have. The names of these individuals are too numerous to list and all say pretty much the same thing. They start with the Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff on down.

Let's just say that sanctions that really hurt Iran could have been applied sooner and not doing so could be viewed as procrastination. I'm also of the opinion that any military action now is that much more problematic than it would have been some time ago, before Iran started burying things deep underground. My perception is that in spite of the mounting complication of military action the U.S held Israel back from unilateral action probably due to the economic implications of said action. Again, my perception is the Israelis would view this as procrastination and any talks offered now by Iran would yet again be a cynical ploy to play for time.

The activity of oil embargoes to and from European nations do indeed provide clues as to what's going down.

[Scott]

Probably a little bit too much off-topic discussion. It can remain, if it stays civil, but the thread is roughly about the sanctions and Iran's stopping of oil exports.

A little more focus would be better.

By the way, if food prices are rising, is this likely to cause civil strife for the gov't?

Internally, what is the reaction to the sanctions and the effect it is having on everyday life?

[airconsult]

Probably a little bit too much off-topic discussion. It can remain, if it stays civil, but the thread is roughly about the sanctions and Iran's stopping of oil exports.

A little more focus would be better.

By the way, if food prices are rising, is this likely to cause civil strife for the gov't?

Internally, what is the reaction to the sanctions and the effect it is having on everyday life?

Hard questions to ask Scott - foreign press is very limited...

However, it was amusing to note this article from presstv.ir - claiming that according to the IMF, Iran is now no.17 in GDP for 2011. http://www.presstv.ir/detail/225839.html

Of course the problem with that is that the IMF only starts processing the previous year's data in January and produces a report in April - maybe they can see into the future?

Since that would involve them moving in one year from number 26 at 407 billion USD to number 17 with 930 billion USD (in their claim) and at the same time in their press statement, Australia moving from number 13 with 1.2 trillion USD down to 918 billion....... I feel a bit skeptical? No, I feel more than skeptical, in fact I think it says... "If you're going to tell a lie.. make it a BIG one..."

(previous figures taken from IMF report of Sept 2011 for 2010 figures) (ugh I hate wiki, but simpler to read - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)#cite_note-0 ) IMF database link provided too.

World Economic Outlook Databases

The World Economic Outlook (WEO) database is created during the biannual WEO exercise, which begins in January and June of each year and results in the April and September WEO publication. Selected series from the publication are available in a database format.

See also, the World Economic Outlook Reports.

[Morch]

Probably a little bit too much off-topic discussion. It can remain, if it stays civil, but the thread is roughly about the sanctions and Iran's stopping of oil exports.

A little more focus would be better.

By the way, if food prices are rising, is this likely to cause civil strife for the gov't?

Internally, what is the reaction to the sanctions and the effect it is having on everyday life?

Had a talk with an Iranian acquaintance, here are some things said.

Mind, I have no idea how much this represents public opinion over there.

Putting it as a quote, though not word for word, of course:

Food prices are rising, some things are hard to find on markets (cooking oil, but no idea which was meant), others just way out there - quoted 20-30US$ for kg of meat (and there was a whole thing about quality of meat as well). Fears regarding chaos and shortages following a possible attack on Iran, lead people to hoard food. While this isn't exactly prohibited, it might "get you in trouble" (whatever that means), plus high prices mean it's not an option for everyone.

Government plans to cut (or rather cut already, and further cuts are planned) in subsidies of basic products, which will make life much harder for poor people (I believe GK raised this issue earlier).

Housing prices been on the march for a while, but with the Rial dropping value, it is becoming harder on people, especially mid-class in big cities. Never mind buying a place of your own, rent is a struggle as well.

Both issues (food and housing prices) are closely tied with unending rumors about politicians and the richer element taking advantage of the situation. This talk is not new by itself, just that there is more of it.

Hard to say if this will push people to act. So far it is hard, but just about manageable (for most). If it will carry on much longer or intensify? A skeptical "maybe". Reasons given are tight control of authorities, familiarity with situation (lasts a while by now & experience from the war with Iraq), fear of chaos/riots which will be worse and alternative rulers "all the same".

Edited February 21, 2012 by Morch

[Morch]

And then there is this...

BRUSSELS/WASHINGTON Feb 17 (Reuters) - Belgium-based SWIFT, which provides banks with a system for moving funds around the world, bowed to international pressure on Friday and said it was ready to block Iranian banks from using its network to transfer money

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/17/iran-sanctions-swift-idUSL5E8DH31020120217

Wonder how that fits with using gold instead of USD as means of payment.

[airconsult]

Probably a little bit too much off-topic discussion. It can remain, if it stays civil, but the thread is roughly about the sanctions and Iran's stopping of oil exports.

A little more focus would be better.

By the way, if food prices are rising, is this likely to cause civil strife for the gov't?

Internally, what is the reaction to the sanctions and the effect it is having on everyday life?

Had a talk with an Iranian acquaintance, here are some things said.

Mind, I have no idea how much this represents public opinion over there.

Putting it as a quote, though not word for word, of course:

Food prices are rising, some things are hard to find on markets (cooking oil, but no idea which was meant), others just way out there - quoted 20-30US$ for kg of meat (and there was a whole thing about quality of meat as well). Fears regarding chaos and shortages following a possible attack on Iran, lead people to hoard food. While this isn't exactly prohibited, it might "get you in trouble" (whatever that means), plus high prices mean it's not an option for everyone.

Government plans to cut (or rather cut already, and further cuts are planned) in subsidies of basic products, which will make life much harder for poor people (I believe GK raised this issue earlier).

Housing prices been on the march for a while, but with the Rial dropping value, it is becoming harder on people, especially mid-class in big cities. Never mind buying a place of your own, rent is a struggle as well.

Both issues (food and housing prices) are closely tied with unending rumors about politicians and the richer element taking advantage of the situation. This talk is not new by itself, just that there is more of it.

Hard to say if this will push people to act. So far it is hard, but just about manageable (for most). If it will carry on much longer or intensify? A skeptical "maybe". Reasons given are tight control of authorities, familiarity with situation (lasts a while by now & experience from the war with Iraq), fear of chaos/riots which will be worse and alternative rulers "all the same".

Many thanks - believe the major cooking oil was palm oil from Malaysia - they stopped exports to Iran in december due to payment problems.

Good information from the inside.... (not good for the Iranian people of course, I meant the quality of info)

Cheers

[flying]

And then there is this...

BRUSSELS/WASHINGTON Feb 17 (Reuters) - Belgium-based SWIFT, which provides banks with a system for moving funds around the world, bowed to international pressure on Friday and said it was ready to block Iranian banks from using its network to transfer money

http://www.reuters.c...E8DH31020120217

Wonder how that fits with using gold instead of USD as means of payment.

In a larger picture it will fit in quite a bit..... Central Banks have become thugs in more than one way.

[flying]

By the way, if food prices are rising, is this likely to cause civil strife for the gov't?

Internally, what is the reaction to the sanctions and the effect it is having on everyday life?

Pointing fingers aside I tend to think the effect will be the same as any time sanctions such as these are used

to hurt an economy & people......Hatred will be directed against those who impose the sanctions.

Those hurt by them who have done nothing certifiably wrong only see this as another form of unprovoked attack.