Philippines To Become Southeast Asia'S Largest Economy By 2050

[josuede]

HSBC predicts Philippines to leapfrog 27 places to become the 16th largest economy by 2050 and become the biggest in southeast asia. Ongoing improvements in economic policies and restructuring is paving way for the country that was beset by political turmoils, corruptions and missed oppurtunities. Will Thailand catch up in the race for economic dominance in the region by the way things are going right now?

http://www.asianewsn...?id=26341&sec=2

[jombom]

Given the fact that Thailand is close to twice the size of Philippine economy, and Indonesia nearly 4 times, this is a rather optimistic prediction by HSBC ---- some might use the term fanciful.

The population growth rate has fallen very quickly over the last 10 years, another limiting factor.

[josuede]

Philippine population is set to jump by almost 70 percent over the next 40 years, and HSBC believes the combination of its powerful demographics and strong fundamentals will drive the economy over the next decades. Other assesments included political stability, rising business confidence, foreign-worker remittances and the money being poured into the business process outsourcing (BPO) industry to be the driving forces of the economy. The country has already toppled India on top of the BPO. These are probably some of the things that Thailand may find hard to keep up with.

[londoedan]

Philippine population is set to jump by almost 70 percent over the next 40 years, and HSBC believes the combination of its powerful demographics and strong fundamentals will drive the economy over the next decades. Other assesments included political stability, rising business confidence, foreign-worker remittances and the money being poured into the business process outsourcing (BPO) industry to be the driving forces of the economy. The country has already toppled India on top of the BPO. These are probably some of the things that Thailand may find hard to keep up with.

I haven't visited The Philipines but have spent a lot of time living and working in Indonesia over the last 10-15 years. As another poster has mentioned, I find HSBC's predicition odd (to say the least).

[bendix]

Well, that's HSBC's credibility down the pan.

Still, top marks to their PR deparment.

[bkk_mike]

The population of the Philippines is significantly larger than Thailand, and larger than Vietnam, so if you assume that things in the Philippines improve to the point where their GDP per head is the same as other countries then it would be a lot of the way there.

That obviously still leaves Indonesia which, with more than double the population, would have to be extremely badly run to have a lower GDP.

However, HSBC is possibly making a geopolitical statement and is assuming that Indonesia will break up at some point. After all, Aceh, Bali, Irian Jaya, Borneo etc. have very little in common with Java except that they were all part of the Dutch East Indies, and Aceh and Irian Jaya already have independence movements...

[IAMHERE]

HSBC must not be factoring in the 'lawlessness' that is all over the Philippines. Too many bandits with guns ruin the rural areas for any kind of meaningful growth to exists outside the big city; I am not sure how safe Manila is.