Who’S Red; Who’S Yellow? Some Data

[Xangsamhua]

Came across some interesting data this morning in a recently published collection of essays on the ongoing political crisis in Thailand. (Bangkok May 2010: Perspectives on a Divided Thailand, ISEAS Singapore and Silkworm Books, 2012)

The National Statistical Office conducted a survey in August-September 2009 of 4000+ households around the country to gather data on the socio-economic circumstances of people who self-identified as “red”, “yellow” or “neither”. The objective was “to answer broad questions relating to economic inequality to the political divide that affects Thai society”. (p. 65)

The authors note that much of the general understanding we usually have of the demographics and motives of the yellows and reds are gained from participants in the disputes. The survey, however, captures the views of people around the country who may have a preference for one or the other disputing camps, but do not participate actively.

In addition to matching socio-economic relationships with yellow or red preferences, the survey asked for respondents to choose 3 answers of a possible 16 “causes of the current political conflict in Thailand”. The illegality of (yellow) protestors’ acts, unwillingness to accept election results and unequal treatment/double standards were significant in “red” respondents’ choices. Incompetence, self-interest and corruption among politicians and unwillingness to compromise among people were widely chosen by yellow supporters.

With regard to the demographics, here are some findings:

1. Older people tend to be neither red nor yellow. Younger people have a slight tendency to be yellow rather than red.

2. There is a clear tendency for better-off people to be yellow; hence Bangkok people across all income classes are more likely to be yellow.

3. Poorer people generally are less likely to be either red or yellow.

4. Red support appears to bear no relation to income; red supporters are equally likely to be rich or poor.

5. Those who feel their living conditions have improved are less likely to be red; by contrast, those whose conditions have deteriorated are more likely to be red. However, strangely, those whose economic circumstances have deteriorated badly are more likely to support the yellow camp.

6. Occupational status (self-employed, business owner, or employed) has no effect on whether one is likely to be yellow or red.

7. Gender has no effect.

8. Except for Bangkok, where people are more likely to favour the yellows (in Aug-Sep 2009), “there is very little specifically regional support for the Reds or the Yellows”. (p. 67)

9. “In particular, the identification of the Reds with the poor is a myth”. (p. 67)

I found findings 2 and 4 contradictory and can’t work out what they mean. I also found finding 8 quite extraordinary. I know that not everyone in the Northeast is red and not everyone in the South is Yellow, but the voting patterns are strong. Do reds in the South and yellows in the Northeast vote contrarily to their real views because they are intimidated or bought, or what? I’m not in a position to question the validity of the survey method, so must assume the findings are valid, but they seem counter-observational to me.

[otherstuff1957]

Except for 8, these results don't really surprise me. Of the Reds I know personally, one is very well educated and very wealthy, another is supposedly well educated (but a complete idiot), the other three are middle-class. Only one of them visited the Red occupation at Ratchaprasong, though he wasn't there when all hell broke loose.

There is a small group of huts on the bigger soi off of mine where some motorcycle taxi guys and somtam vendors live. They attended the Ratchaprasong demonstration and had a party every 'payday', but don't seem to be politically active now.

[AleG]

If I remember correctly a survey on the Red/Yellow numbers gave both a similar percentage of the population, I think people that identified themselves as Red Shirts represented 17% of the population.

Obviously while there's a large number of Red Shirts they are not a majority of the population (as a now gone member liked to repeat ad nauseum), in fact they are not even a majority among the people that voted for PTP.

[maxme]

I would advise not to take this further as Thailand is not a democratic country and these types of threads usually end up with loose statements, false accusations among other things. Also stereotyping redshirts and yellowshirts is a bad as saying that neither of these people are individuals.

Edited April 16, 2012 by maxme

[waza]

I think the yellowshirts have disbanded now. All the Thai people I know support niether yellow or red, but they are anti-red. They believe the Red movement is more a criminal organisation rather than a political one and Thaksin is the godfather.

[maxme]

Precisely what i mean...

[nocturn]

i think items 2 and 4 are not necessarily contradictory.

while the study may have shown a cross section taken exclusively of yellows were showed generally higher income supporters, across section taken exclusively of red supporters showed a diversity of incomes

[Xangsamhua]

i think items 2 and 4 are not necessarily contradictory.

while the study may have shown a cross section taken exclusively of yellows were showed generally higher income supporters, across section taken exclusively of red supporters showed a diversity of incomes

OK, thanks for this. That sounds quite possible.

[DP25]

8. Except for Bangkok, where people are more likely to favour the yellows (in Aug-Sep 2009), “there is very little specifically regional support for the Reds or the Yellows”. (p. 67)

It seems hard to see how they could come up with that result. Just looking at election results, in most Isaan provinces, except a few provinces like Buriram and Korat, PTP won majorities of the popular vote and in some Isaan provinces got over 80% of the vote. In central provinces this fell to 1/4th to 1/2. In the south it got down to under 10%, and many of those were migrants from Isaan too. Not all PTP voters are red shirts of course, but all red shirts vote PTP and in some provinces they are almost non existent except for a few Isaan migrants. Red shirt villages are mostly all in Isaan and Chiang Mai and the 'movement' is dominated by people from these places. Someone from Udon Thani or Roi Et where PTP got over 80% of the vote is absolutely more likely to be a red shirt someone from Surat Thani or Nakhon Si Thamarat where PTP got 10%.

[mjj]

10. It was also shown that most demonstrators had no affiliation to either red or yellow, it was just a paycheck and a free shirt.

[Xangsamhua]

8. Except for Bangkok, where people are more likely to favour the yellows (in Aug-Sep 2009), “there is very little specifically regional support for the Reds or the Yellows”. (p. 67)

It seems hard to see how they could come up with that result. Just looking at election results, in most Isaan provinces, except a few provinces like Buriram and Korat, PTP won majorities of the popular vote and in some Isaan provinces got over 80% of the vote. In central provinces this fell to 1/4th to 1/2. In the south it got down to under 10%, and many of those were migrants from Isaan too. Not all PTP voters are red shirts of course, but all red shirts vote PTP and in some provinces they are almost non existent except for a few Isaan migrants. Red shirt villages are mostly all in Isaan and Chiang Mai and the 'movement' is dominated by people from these places. Someone from Udon Thani or Roi Et where PTP got over 80% of the vote is absolutely more likely to be a red shirt someone from Surat Thani or Nakhon Si Thamarat where PTP got 10%.

I agree, and find that conclusion by the researchers quite difficult to accept.

We have to remember that the questionnaire went to over 4000 households. The respondent/s for many of these households may express a preference for one camp or the other, but may not have a strong preference, or indeed a strong interest in the disputes, so they're not the people who dress up and go to rallies. We know that vote-buying is widespread and I'll assume it's as widespread in the South as it is in the North and Northeast, so many people who have a fairly weak leaning towards one camp may vote for the opposing camp if someone gives them 500 baht, especially if an influential person is putting up the money and people don't trust the confidentiality of the voting process. I wouldn't have thought there were so many of these people that they neutralize the strength of the red vote in the North and Northeast or the yellow vote in the South, but that's what the researchers are saying.

Except for Bangkokians, who tend to favour the yellows and who would be less likely to be uncommitted, there is very little specifically regional support for the Reds or the Yellows. ("The Socio-Economic Bases of the Red/Yellow Divide: A Statistical Analysis", in Bangkok May 2010: Perspectives on a Divided Thailand, p. 67)

[h90]

no regional support????

There are basically no red in the south, but a lot yellow.

Opposite in the north