The Differences Between Good And Bad Hopes: Thai Opinion

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STREET WISE

The differences between good and bad hopes

Achara Deboonme

The Nation

BANGKOK: -- Last week came very good news for 3.4 million debtors of state-owned banks, including farmers. They can enroll into the government-sponsored debt moratorium, either a stop in principal repayment or a reduction in interest rates for their loans which must not exceed Bt500,000.

Needless to say, the scheme raises hopes for the low-income earners as a whole.

As we have witnessed, whatever populist policies are announced by Pheu Thai Party, they would be included in other governments led by other parties. Yes, that is the legacy that Pheu Thai (or Thai Rak Thai) has introduced to Thai society. It is thus easy to conclude that this scheme would resurrect no matter what party comes to power.

In his tweets, former finance minister Korn Chatikavanij, an executive of Democrat Party, lamented the scheme. During his term, he also gave free cheques to the low-income. For benefits of the doubt, the Democrats' scheme was launched at a seemingly better time, when the global economy was in turmoil.

Is it healthy to giving this kind of hope, the externally-driven hope? Or, would it be better to invest in the environment, whereby internally-inspired hopes can be born?

To explain this, let me tell you about "Always", a Japanese trilogy that tells how good and healthy hopes can be originated. (Now, the trilogy is screened at House Rama).

The trilogy focused on a community in Tokyo, thriving after the World War II. In the first two pieces, much was about the construction of the Tokyo Tower. It is unnecessary to explain how suffering the Japanese people were when the war was over, leaving ruins everywhere. But then, with the construction of the world's tallest structure, the country was filled with hopes.

The Japanese largely honour Sakura, not because of the beauty of the flower. The flower is the sign of new things, for it blossoms in Spring - the season of liveliness after the tormenting Winter. The Sakura last year blossomed right after the great earthquake and tsunami hit the eastern shore, giving hopes to the Japanese that the brighter days are coming.

In "Always", the Tower was meant to work wonder like the Sakura. And it did. A small garage owner, named Suzuki, dreamed of opening the country's largest garage. His ambition was shared with the female apprentice, who hoped that the prosperity the future would bring would also change her life for the better.

In the third piece, it came the Tokyo Olympics. When air fighters made the five Olympics rings in the sky, the community was filled with hope.

Structures and events are the recipes countries worldwide are deploying to raise hopes. British Prime Minister David Cameron was so hopeful as London is close to host the Olympics 2012 in July. To him, the games is the legacy of the world, not just Britain.

Thailand is also bidding against Turkey to host the World Expo 2020. In 2010, people and Shanghai were elated to hosting the international fair, for it demonstrated the resurrection of China - one of the ancient powers. Hopefully, Thais should feel the same if Thailand wins the hosting right. If we win, I believe that one part of Thailand Pavilion would feature the agricultural development. Thailand is not as advanced as some western countries, due to low R&D budget, but adaptation of available knowledge helps a great deal in boosting the output aside from our futile soil.

Shanghai then provided free entrance to the Chinese rural. They looked poor, compared to the middle-income visitors who came in fashionable outfits. But they opened their eyes to what happened in the world, to be inspired of what they and their younger could become. Would Thai farmers feel the same?

Judging from the perception to the expo at this moment, I don't think so. For now, they are living their lives in the way that their ancestors did, depending on agricultural crops prices. Without the environment that promotes more use of agricultural crops in the industralised scale, the global demand plays a crucial role in dictating their income.

Now, they see the widening income gap going on. And now, they are hoping that this and new governments would continue with schemes like the debt moratorium one. Such hope is unhealthy, but there are so few to inspire internally-driven and healthy hopes.

-- The Nation 2012-04-30

[KireB]

Debt moratorium could indeed help a lot of people trapped in financial difficulties, but preventing debt is more important than facilitating it. Why are people borrowing money? Why are there financial problems? Exceptions there, but most indebted people are financially uneducated. Many have used their credits to buy telephones, cars, tv sets, etc... And we all know that money doesn't grow on trees!

[retarius]

I like Yingluck because she's a cutie pie but I've major fears about the way her finance minister is running the economy. Apparently they have decided that a dose of inflation would be a marvelous thing for Thailand...premeditated inflation brought about by a lot of half-baked populist ideas, that we know were only rolled out to win votes, like this one...this is aimed at 'good debtors' ie ones that have made all their payments...if they are allowed to reduce their paybacks, the loans effectively become bad, and their capital structure will be weakened and their income hurt...now I don't care much about banks losing money, but they will recoup they money in increased charges etc...same with the increase in the minimum wage, business will simply charge more and any gain the poor make will be inflated away.

Now, indeed inflation does help debtors, but it robs savers. One of the reasons that Asian economies have fared relatively well during the recent economic crisis, is that they have lots of home grown savings....I don't know about individual savers, but Thailand Inc has stashed away a lot of billions since the dark days of 1997...robbing savers now seems to be a bit dumb. I know that inflation helps the rich, since they tend to own assets that maintain or grow in value, whereas poor people keep their savings in cash, which devalues during inflationary periods. It would be a pity to blow all the hard earned savings, saved over the past few years, all on a bunch of half-baked, frankly idiotic, ideas that were vote catchers....she's cute enough to win next time around without blowing the bank on these stupid schemes.