Top economic guru forecasts Thai GDP in 2012 at 6.0-6.5%

BANGKOK, 3 May 2012 (NNT) – A top economic guru has forecasted that Thai economy will end up expanding healthily this year, as a result of the recovery in the flood-hit industry.

Mr. Virabongsa Ramangkura, Chairman of the Strategic Committee for Reconstruction and Future Development, said that Thai economy has shown evident signs of continued recovery in the second quarter, a trend he believes will go on until the end of this year.

He stated that local economic recovery has started since the first quarter of 2012 after the manufacturing sector resumed operations that were hit hard by the worst flood crisis in decades.

Mr. Virabongsa added that such a trend, backed by the government's higher-than-expected revenue collection, led him to predict that Thailand’s GDP will stand between 6 and 6.5 percent this year.

Other factors, which Mr. Virabongsa has considered in supporting his forecast, include the special 120-billion-baht post-flood rehabilitation budget and the allocation of 350 billion baht for the country's flood prevention systems that will soon be circulating in the local economy.

He went on to say that reports from the Board of Investment (BOI) showed that there has recently been a significant rise in the investment incentive applications.

However, he cautioned that the economic expansion during the second half of this year may be hindered by a shortage of labor, after Myanmar has opened its gate to the international community and Myanmar workers in Thailand will likely return home soon.

-- NNT 2012-05-03

More Thai propoganda?

Other factors, which Mr. Virabongsa has considered in supporting his forecast, include the special 120-billion-baht post-flood rehabilitation budget and the allocation of 350 billion baht for the country's flood prevention systems that will soon be circulating in the local economy.

I would think most of such is being spent on property owned by connected individuals as part of that "monkey cheek" flood plan (how many thousands of Rai?). So, this should have only a marginal effect on GDP as it is not in production and the money will probably also not be in circulation.

Also, with inflation (the hidden and real figure) I think real GDP should be a lot less.

Just a few days back we had the various business organization crying that businesses are closing in record numbers etc. So, I guess one should just ignore this bit of "news".

However, he cautioned that the economic expansion during the second half of this year may be hindered by a shortage of labor, after Myanmar has opened its gate to the international community and Myanmar workers in Thailand will likely return home soon.

Best news all day this bit! I guess that is the end of slavery in Thailand!

Edited May 3, 201214 yr by AngryParent

Sounds good. Even if he is off by 20%, that's still some good numbers.

_{i guess he ment: a lot of people are getting rich soon, when the billions of baht of graft money will be "flooding" in the right hands (the left hands also get their part)}

_{so, 300 baht per labour in return for nothing more, except wanting to replace them with machines and causing more unemployed}

_{companies relocating as neighbour countries are 70-80% cheaper for unskilled labour}

_{the more expensive rice thanks to making the rice millers even more rich and keeping the poor farmers poor and stupid}

_{the decline in rice export (main source of export, after sex business)}

More Thai propoganda?

Other factors, which Mr. Virabongsa has considered in supporting his forecast, include the special 120-billion-baht post-flood rehabilitation budget and the allocation of 350 billion baht for the country's flood prevention systems that will soon be circulating in the local economy.

I would think most of such is being spent on property owned by connected individuals as part of that "monkey cheek" flood plan (how many thousands of Rai?). So, this should have only a marginal effect on GDP as it is not in production and the money will probably also not be in circulation.

Also, with inflation (the hidden and real figure) I think real GDP should be a lot less.

Just a few days back we had the various business organization crying that businesses are closing in record numbers etc. So, I guess one should just ignore this bit of "news".

However, he cautioned that the economic expansion during the second half of this year may be hindered by a shortage of labor, after Myanmar has opened its gate to the international community and Myanmar workers in Thailand will likely return home soon.

Best news all day this bit! I guess that is the end of slavery in Thailand!

if you inject 120 billion which you don't have in the economic than it produces a big grow.

For that big grow Thailand pays the next 20 years with a reduced grow and more tax. But it generates a short time bubble. Maybe long enough till the next election.....

_{i guess he ment: a lot of people are getting rich soon, when the billions of baht of graft money will be "flooding" in the right hands (the left hands also get their part)}

_{so, 300 baht per labour in return for nothing more, except wanting to replace them with machines and causing more unemployed}

_{companies relocating as neighbour countries are 70-80% cheaper for unskilled labour}

_{the more expensive rice thanks to making the rice millers even more rich and keeping the poor farmers poor and stupid}

_{the decline in rice export (main source of export, after sex business)}

Not a very clever response.Neighbouring countries may have cheaper labour but they don't have basic infrastructure like electricity grids, roads,seaports etc and no way to export profits and where are the investment promotions, BoI,Industrial Estates etc?. Five minutes on Google tells me that Gypsum (second largest exporter in the world), Integrated Circuits (largest hard disk manufacturer in the world) ,Vehicles, Cassava ( largest exporter in the world) are far more important to Thailand's economy than the sex business (perhaps more important to you than to the economy and it is hardly an export!). If you want tobe cynical about every positive news item at least have a basis for it

Mr. Virabongsa added that such a trend, backed by the government's higher-than-expected revenue collection, led him to predict that Thailand’s GDP will stand between 6 and 6.5 percent this year.

This very same gentleman

"Virabongsa Ramangkura, chairman of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra's advisory team, yesterday proposed raising by 1 percentage point the value added tax (VAT), which currently adds 7 per cent to the cost of consumer products.

"This would result in additional revenue of Bt60 billion for the country, which would enable us to ease other types of tax collection," he said."