Manchester United

[mrbojangles]

I make my living predicting the future through statistics and facts.

I predict that "Predicting" or "Forcasting" is 100% wrong. It's the margin of error that counts.

[redrus]

I make my living predicting the future through statistics and facts.

I predict that "Predicting" or "Forcasting" is 100% wrong. It's the margin of error that counts.

I sense you maybe right.... (Feels it in his water) #predictions

redrus

[smokie36]

I make my living predicting the future through statistics and facts.

Where can I get the cheapest Pad Ka Pow Gai in Bangkok please?

[bkkjames]

What was the guy in groundhog day played by bill murray? Phil or something. Abby's new nickname!

[Abrak]

You keep on grasping at stats to somehow put a stop to the resurgent spurs-and your hopes of CL football next season, and we'll keep doing what we do-go marching on on on.

So cool bkkjames....you keep complaining about how I back up my arguments with the facts.

Now I dont go around complaining about people who do not back up their arguments with facts on the basis that everyone is entitled to their opinion. However, just because you dont have to justify an argument, it really shouldnt entitle your argument to be devoid of all reason, logic and rationality as well as totally incoherent.

And really it isnt that difficult to express an opinion. Let me try 'I think Rooney is the best player in the world' - that is not only an opinion but if I thought that it would be a fact. If you wish to post deranged conspiracy theories on the internet dont be surprised that people question both your intelligence and sanity.

[Abrak]

I make my living predicting the future through statistics and facts.

I predict that "Predicting" or "Forcasting" is 100% wrong. It's the margin of error that counts.

You are 100% correct Bo.

Now all you need to know is how do you calculate the 'margin for error', how big is it and what is its value. Then manage a hedge fund.

[alfieconn]

I make my living predicting the future through statistics and facts.

I predict that "Predicting" or "Forcasting" is 100% wrong. It's the margin of error that counts.

You are 100% correct Bo.

Now all you need to know is how do you calculate the 'margin for error', how big is it and what is its value. Then manage a hedge fund.

Thats how much abrak knows about football, he thinks hedge fund is a football team

[Abrak]

I make my living predicting the future through statistics and facts.

I predict that "Predicting" or "Forcasting" is 100% wrong. It's the margin of error that counts.

You are 100% correct Bo.

Now all you need to know is how do you calculate the 'margin for error', how big is it and what is its value. Then manage a hedge fund.

Thats how much abrak knows about football, he thinks hedge fund is a football team

However, you think you know what I think, which actually shows how much you know about knowledge.

[Abrak]

You can see how many points the bookmakers think the top clubs are going to achieve at the end of the season. Currently the top 7 rank as follows.

City 89

United 83.5

Chelsea 75.5

Spurs 75.5

Liverpool 69.5

Arsenal 69.5

Newcastle 56.5

[carmine]

You can see how many points the bookmakers think the top clubs are going to achieve at the end of the season. Currently the top 7 rank as follows.

City 89

United 83.5

Chelsea 75.5

Spurs 75.5

Liverpool 69.5

Arsenal 69.5

Newcastle 56.5

Abrak, i have to say that maybe its time the bookies admitted they've got it horribly wrong and reviewd those points don't you. Chelsea are a small squad, aging and in decline, Arsenals defense is horrid with no real cover and Liverpool, well, you're just not very good.

[Devil]

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1322540948[/url]' post='4878757']

You can see how many points the bookmakers think the top clubs are going to achieve at the end of the season. Currently the top 7 rank as follows.

City 89

United 83.5

Chelsea 75.5

Spurs 75.5

Liverpool 69.5

Arsenal 69.5

Newcastle 56.5

Abrak, i have to say that maybe its time the bookies admitted they've got it horribly wrong and reviewd those points don't you. Chelsea are a small squad, aging and in decline, Arsenals defense is horrid with no real cover and Liverpool, well, you're just not very good.

Never tire of your jokes Mr Carmine...

[Abrak]

You can see how many points the bookmakers think the top clubs are going to achieve at the end of the season. Currently the top 7 rank as follows.

City 89

United 83.5

Chelsea 75.5

Spurs 75.5

Liverpool 69.5

Arsenal 69.5

Newcastle 56.5

Abrak, i have to say that maybe its time the bookies admitted they've got it horribly wrong and reviewed those points don't you. Chelsea are a small squad, aging and in decline, Arsenals defense is horrid with no real cover and Liverpool, well, you're just not very good.

Well obviously you can go and bet against the bookies if you wish. My general view with these things is that with the known facts available (essentially historic results) bookmakers are pretty good at calculating a figure. Actually their figures are pretty close to mine in any case.

But I do agree. The bookies have placed a higher weighting on historic performance (last years results) than I do and by the sound of it you do. So I basically have United, Chelsea and Arsenal slightly lower than their forecast and City slightly higher.

[smokie36]

You can see how many points the bookmakers think the top clubs are going to achieve at the end of the season. Currently the top 7 rank as follows.

City 89

United 83.5

Chelsea 75.5

Spurs 75.5

Liverpool 69.5

Arsenal 69.5

Newcastle 56.5

Abrak, i have to say that maybe its time the bookies admitted they've got it horribly wrong and reviewd those points don't you. Chelsea are a small squad, aging and in decline, Arsenals defense is horrid with no real cover and Liverpool, well, you're just not very good.

Never tire of your jokes Mr Carmine...

It amuses me to see the geordies up in fourth with your £35m in the bank....oh and the word "unleashed".....that just cracks me up so it does!

[carmine]

You can see how many points the bookmakers think the top clubs are going to achieve at the end of the season. Currently the top 7 rank as follows.

City 89

United 83.5

Chelsea 75.5

Spurs 75.5

Liverpool 69.5

Arsenal 69.5

Newcastle 56.5

Abrak, i have to say that maybe its time the bookies admitted they've got it horribly wrong and reviewed those points don't you. Chelsea are a small squad, aging and in decline, Arsenals defense is horrid with no real cover and Liverpool, well, you're just not very good.

Well obviously you can go and bet against the bookies if you wish. My general view with these things is that with the known facts available (essentially historic results) bookmakers are pretty good at calculating a figure. Actually their figures are pretty close to mine in any case.

But I do agree. The bookies have placed a higher weighting on historic performance (last years results) than I do and by the sound of it you do. So I basically have United, Chelsea and Arsenal slightly lower than their forecast and City slightly higher.

I am genuinely taken aback at the improvement of Spurs this season. There is no point comparing to last year. Thats my point. Secondly City were no where near the dominent side last season compared to this. Liverpool are still rather an enigma and have yet to show their potential. I'd say Utd is about right though.

[MrRed]

Abrak, i would be interested to read your observations on statistics and predictions as i am genuinely also into this myself but as you know by my postings i tend to keep the stats to myself.

You did say you have a book out which i would like you to point me too if at all acceptable to you?

If not would you please direct me by PM if you like to some good sites literature/material so i can brush up a bit as i haven't been looking at the facts much lately.

Cheers Red.

[Abrak]

I am genuinely taken aback at the improvement of Spurs this season. There is no point comparing to last year. Thats my point. Secondly City were no where near the dominent side last season compared to this. Liverpool are still rather an enigma and have yet to show their potential. I'd say Utd is about right though.

Liverpool's improvement is quite noticeable. By that I mean that last year we scored 58 points and we are currently on target for 70. That is a large improvement, very good value for the net spend and in fact I find it difficult to see us doing much more.

Spurs improvement has been even better and is rather surprising given that you havent spent heavily on the squad. You would be tempted to say you have already deviated too far from last year's results for it to be sustainable. A possible explanation though is that Spurs underperformed last year and the 70 points achieved in 09/10 is a better reflection of the team. If you think about it last year your wage bill did increase 36% and you scored 8 fewer points.

Much the same applies to City who are infinitely better this year. And although they did acquire Aguero and Nasri, they have lost Tevez so didnt spend that heavily. Again my view here is that they very much underperformed last year. They had the largest wage bill in the league and only came 3rd. And it has taken until this year for the team to gel and reflect their cost.

[smokie36]

I am genuinely taken aback at the improvement of Spurs this season. There is no point comparing to last year. Thats my point. Secondly City were no where near the dominent side last season compared to this. Liverpool are still rather an enigma and have yet to show their potential. I'd say Utd is about right though.

Liverpool's improvement is quite noticeable. By that I mean that last year we scored 58 points and we are currently on target for 70. That is a large improvement, very good value for the net spend and in fact I find it difficult to see us doing much more.

Spurs improvement has been even better and is rather surprising given that you havent spent heavily on the squad. You would be tempted to say you have already deviated too far from last year's results for it to be sustainable. A possible explanation though is that Spurs underperformed last year and the 70 points achieved in 09/10 is a better reflection of the team. If you think about it last year your wage bill did increase 36% and you scored 8 fewer points.

Much the same applies to City who are infinitely better this year. And although they did acquire Aguero and Nasri, they have lost Tevez so didnt spend that heavily. Again my view here is that they very much underperformed last year. They had the largest wage bill in the league and only came 3rd. And it has taken until this year for the team to gel and reflect their cost.

In all the buying frenzy and performance targets one thing shines out for me is that we have a young relatively unchanged side from last year. The clown in goal is gone and we have a decent striker. Its not rocket science to suggest we were going to improve on that basis. Also the fitness of Ledley King has been a big factor.

[Abrak]

In all the buying frenzy and performance targets one thing shines out for me is that we have a young relatively unchanged side from last year. The clown in goal is gone and we have a decent striker. Its not rocket science to suggest we were going to improve on that basis. Also the fitness of Ledley King has been a big factor.

No you did improve the team. You got lent a 25m striker for free and by buying an older goalkeeper and midfield player you got a lot of short term quality cheap. Last year you got 62 points - ok you might have improved but Chelsea, Utd, City and Liverpool spent money, so that you wouldnt expect a big improvement. Say 70 points would have been a fair and realistic ambition at the beginning of the season. To the extent that you might end up with 75 or more now, that is surprising.

As a matter of statistical fact your squad is not that young. At an average of 26.8 it is older than the average player in the Premiership who is 26.4. And the average age of your squad isnt much different from Chelsea (27.6) who's squad Carmine refers to as aging. FYI MU 25.3, Arsenal 25.3 and Liverpool 25.4.

[Abrak]

Abrak, i would be interested to read your observations on statistics and predictions as i am genuinely also into this myself but as you know by my postings i tend to keep the stats to myself.

You did say you have a book out which i would like you to point me too if at all acceptable to you?

If not would you please direct me by PM if you like to some good sites literature/material so i can brush up a bit as i haven't been looking at the facts much lately.

Cheers Red.

Actually all I said was that I had 'read' a book and Singh thought I should send it to him so he could read it too.

There is a book called 'soccernomics' which is very light, can be read in a day and I think anyone who is interested in football would find interesting. A lot of it is to do with how performance on the pitch is linked to money spent etc which everyone sort of knows but most people dont understand how strong the link is. But it is fun stats if you believe such things exist.

I also really liked 'Moneyball' - the film is terrible. This is about how you can potentially perform in sport without money, It is about baseball but the theory behind it is very interesting. It is along the lines that a lot of what people 'know' about sport is not always true and in any case 'knowledge' has no value unless you 'know' more than everyone else.

If you are interested in stats you might have read both of those already. A more dry and boring book is 'pay as you play' which goes into subjects of say comparing managers - like Moyes and Ferguson - given different budgets. Club spend etc.

[Abrak]

There is no point comparing to last year. Thats my point.

Yes there is Carmine and you do it although entirely in your head. How many points do you 'really' think that Newcastle will end with. I suspect you think they will come 7th and that is because you think that the deviation from the previous years performance is unsustainable.

The bookies think that Newcastle will end up 13 points lower than both Liverpool and Arsenal. So if you dont think last year is relevant then that is highly unlikely. Actually, as I have said, I place less weighting on last year's results but that is because I choose to.

Actually the most surprising number for me is City. They have dropped just 4 points in the first 13 games and they have already played at least half their most difficult matches - namely away to Utd, Spurs and Liverpool. In order to get 90 points or less they have to drop 24 points in the season or 20 points over the last 2/3rds. So you can see that there is an expectation that they will trend towards a much longer term mean.

[MrRed]

Abrak, i would be interested to read your observations on statistics and predictions as i am genuinely also into this myself but as you know by my postings i tend to keep the stats to myself.

You did say you have a book out which i would like you to point me too if at all acceptable to you?

If not would you please direct me by PM if you like to some good sites literature/material so i can brush up a bit as i haven't been looking at the facts much lately.

Cheers Red.

Actually all I said was that I had 'read' a book and Singh thought I should send it to him so he could read it too.

There is a book called 'soccernomics' which is very light, can be read in a day and I think anyone who is interested in football would find interesting. A lot of it is to do with how performance on the pitch is linked to money spent etc which everyone sort of knows but most people dont understand how strong the link is. But it is fun stats if you believe such things exist.

I also really liked 'Moneyball' - the film is terrible. This is about how you can potentially perform in sport without money, It is about baseball but the theory behind it is very interesting. It is along the lines that a lot of what people 'know' about sport is not always true and in any case 'knowledge' has no value unless you 'know' more than everyone else.

If you are interested in stats you might have read both of those already. A more dry and boring book is 'pay as you play' which goes into subjects of say comparing managers - like Moyes and Ferguson - given different budgets. Club spend etc.

My apoligies Abrak i assumed you had something in print from reading your posts earlier,i have read Kupers soccernomics and it is interesting and very readable....if you have not read football against the enemy which is fantastic by him,i highly reccomend it.

I don't like to read books that are trying to compare sports the way "moneyball" does,not my cup of tea as the comparisons can be picked to pieces so are not really 100% at the races with factual info.

I have not comeacross "pay as you play" so will source that and have a look see.

As i said also earlier i am intrigued where or how you glean all your stats from it must be a very good website you use or several.

[MrRed]

Boss: Timing key for debuts

Sir Alex Ferguson has explained the detailed process that is followed when he considers whether to hand a youngster his debut.

The progress of a number of last season's FA Youth Cup-winners for Warren Joyce's Reserves has inevitably led to suggestions that more new faces could feature in Wednesday's Carling Cup tie against Crystal Palace. Zeki Fryers, Larnell Cole, Paul Pogba and Michael Keane have already made their first-team bow in the competition this term, to demonstrate that the Carrington production line is still in fine working order.

"The monitoring system here is good and there's a lot of consistency with our Academy staff," says Sir Alex in the new edition of Inside United. "These are guys that have been here a long time and know what to look for. When somebody like Paul McGuinness comes to me and says: 'He's a first-team player', then I know to keep a special eye on the player.

"From there, we'll bring the boy into first-team training for a couple of sessions. That's what we're doing at the moment with Paul Pogba, Ravel Morrison, Jesse Lingard, Zeki Fryers, Larnell Cole and Michael Keane. They're all training with the first team.

"That allows me to see how they cope playing against seasoned professionals, it lets me judge their temperament. It allows me to get a far better picture of how they're progressing. And, while this is going on, you hope they're playing well for the Reserves and displaying the right attitude and enthusiasm.

"Players are never simply thrown into first-team action," he asserted. "They always follow this step-by-step process.

"I don't think we've ever been off the mark and given a boy his chance too early. That can be very damaging. If he's not up to the standards we require at United, then we don't venture there. The last thing we'd want is to humiliate a player. I'm not saying every player I've ever given a debut to has gone on to be a fantastic player at this club, but most of them have at least forged successful careers."

Pogba to face Palace?

Sir Alex Ferguson has dropped some hints as to his likely team selection in Wednesday's Carling Cup quarter-final with Crystal Palace.

The boss will again rely heavily on youth, as he has in the previous rounds against Leeds United and Aldershot Town, and has suggested that Paul Pogba could be handed his first senior start for the Reds. The Frenchman came on as a substitute at Elland Road and the EBB Stadium but is now in the running for a place in the initial eleven, alongwith fellow FA Youth Cup winner Ravel Morrison.

"There will be complete change," revealed Sir Alex. "Just the same as we had at Leeds and Aldershot. Ravel Morrison was in the squad for Wednesday's game [against Benfica]. He's a very, very talented boy, of course, and he'll possibly be on the bench, at least, in midweek. But I've got other players needing a game like Mame Biram Diouf and Federico Macheda.

"All the younger players [will come in] - Zeki Fryers, the two Da Silvas [Rafael and Fabio] are possibles. Chris Smalling has come back and I may be able to play him on Wednesday. He's still young and it'll be a young squad against Palace. The only area where I've got problems is centre midfield. It's possible I could play Pogba in there but we'll wait and see. I've got enough players to choose from, that's for sure."

"I think the League Cup has turned into quite a good tournament," added the manager. "Clubs like United are able to introduce young players and ones who have not been playing regularly in the first team and it's been good to us over the years.

"We've won two finals at Wembley with young players, which is good going, and I think it's become an important tournament for us in terms of getting the youngsters an introduction into winning and having an understanding of the progress they're making."

Sir Alex has a well-established system in place in terms of how to develop the youngsters coming through the ranks at Old Trafford.

"The reserves' league is more of an extended youth league but we rectify that by putting players on loan," he explained. "We've got quite a lot of players on loan this year, as we have every year, most of the 19 and 20-year-olds.

"The nucleus of the youth team last year have all had first-team experience this season. They've all been involved in the League Cup and travelled to European games with us. One of that youth team is out on loan in the Championship [Ryan Tunnicliffe at Peterborough] and it's valuable experience for the younger ones."

[smokie36]

"Sir" knows his young players and when to bring them into the first team. Top quality manager aye...but are you good enough to hang on to a top two place?

Time will tell...and squad strength...its fingers crossed for much of the witer in all camps as that may well decide it.

[MrRed]

I am still very very confident smokes,we have not been at our best for the last 6/7 games meaning we will get better.Spurs like City are having a great spell at the moment they cannot get much better .....we can and will.

And it seems he is in that process again of transferring youngsters into the first team which is never a bad sign is it,truly great manager to still want to give the kids a shot first to see if they are up to it.

And when you look at the age of Jones Smalling the Twins DDG,we really have got some good youngsters who have shown already they can cut it....oh i forgot to add Cleverly,Wellbeck and Hernandez,it will be great to see Pogba given a start tomorrow night.

[smokie36]

I am still very very confident smokes,we have not been at our best for the last 6/7 games meaning we will get better.Spurs like City are having a great spell at the moment they cannot get much better .....we can and will.

And it seems he is in that process again of transferring youngsters into the first team which is never a bad sign is it,truly great manager to still want to give the kids a shot first to see if they are up to it.

And when you look at the age of Jones Smalling the Twins DDG,we really have got some good youngsters who have shown already they can cut it....oh i forgot to add Cleverly,Wellbeck and Hernandez,it will be great to see Pogba given a start tomorrow night.

He's still the best manager out there....I thought it in '83 and nothing has changed my mind since. Its shaping up nicely this year aint it?

[bkkjames]

Exciting stuff that, kids gave their all-depite the result.

Morrison is one for the future, pogba needs to mature.

key learnings: rafael and fabio are perpetually getting injured and are becoming unreliable if its a roll of the dice everytime they play.

Diouf not good enough-back to blackburn.

When's the last time we had a good irish player? Evans and gibson looked at home playing against championship calibre teams. Dead wood, needs clearing out-been saying that for 2 years now.

Macheda, only a glimpse of his so-called potential.

Park did very little. Valencia best player on the pitch.

[bkkjames]

Dp.

Edited November 30, 2011 by bkkjames

[uptheos]

Manchester United boss Sir Alex Ferguson apologised to fans for his team's display in their 2-1 Carling Cup quarter-final loss to Crystal Palace.

What a crock!

When you're as far a the quarter finals, don't be smug and pick your best team, if only for the thousands of fans that pay good money to support you - the players 100,000 + pay checks will keep their legs going twice in a week.

[mrbojangles]

Oh dear

[mrbojangles]

Exciting stuff that, kids gave their all-depite the result.

Nice effort at attempting to deflect james.

However, here's what Fergie had to say, from skysports:-

"I'm so disappointed. I have to apologise to my fans and all the players who weren't playing. We never expected that," he told Sky Sports.

"Any time we go on the pitch it means a lot to Manchester United. We have our pride to protect and our history to protect. Every time we walk on the pitch it's important. We didn't see that tonight.

"Nine internationals out there. So that was a big disappointment."