All Sides Vying For Military Support: Thailand

[webfact]

BURNING ISSUE

All sides vying for military support

Avudh Panananda

The Nation

Gen Prayuth

In the face of a political tug of war, the opposing camps are trying to claim the military as a prize trophy.

BANGKOK: -- It is strange but true that the army is a fixture in the political landscape even though all leading figures, including the top brass, keep saying troops should remain in their barracks.

The struggle between the then prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra and his opponents in 2005 ended up in a coup the following year.

After the junta had faded out in 2007, political strife escalated under successive civilian governments from 2008 to 2010. The yellow shirts were involved in street protests, culminating in the October 2008 bloodshed and the seizure of Don Mueang and Suvarnabhumi airports a month later.

The red shirts descended on the streets in 2009 and 2010 causing tragic losses in a number of violent incidents.

Two former Army chiefs, General Sonthi Boonyaratglin and General Anupong Paochinda, were key players in the political strife. And incumbent holder of Army torch, General Prayuth Chan-ocha, is balancing on a tightrope in order to keep his troops from taking sides in the prevailing polarisation.

Will he succeed where his two predecessors failed? More importantly, how long can he steer clear of polarisation when all sides have already viewed the military under various shades of political colours?

The red and yellow shirts, as well as the opposition Democrat and ruling Pheu Thai parties, all play up the military card for the sake of political expediency.

Despite a clear voting outcome in the 2007 general election, the anti- and pro-government camps are gearing for a showdown over issues like reconciliation and charter change, which are linked to the granting of an amnesty for Thaksin.

Prayuth is right at the vortex of a brewing political storm. The Pheu Thai Party and red-shirt allies are determined to push for a charter rewrite, which will in turn generate Thaksin's amnesty. The opposition movement, comprising the Democrats and yellow shirts, is equally firm on pulling the plug on an amnesty for Thaksin.

Tension has been building up, as evidenced by the mushrooming of politically-motivated litigation and the increasing numbers of political rallies. The actual showdown between the anti- and pro-government camps should coincide with the planned referendum vote on new charter next year.

The pro-government camp has been keeping Prayuth on a tight leash through handlers like Defence Minister Sukumpol Suwanatat and red-leaning Defence permanent secretary General Sathian Permtong-in.

The red-shirt leaders, including Jatuporn Promphan and Kokaew Pikulthong, often rely on anti-coup comments to rein in the military.

The anti-government camp, particularly the People's Alliance for Democracy, has reminded the military of its sacred duties to safeguard the country and uphold the monarchy, in a bid to sway the soldiers to its side.

Last week the Democrats voiced disappointment at Prayuth and other top commanders for siding with the government on the issue of Nasa's request to conduct climate research from U-tapao airbase.

Faced with increasing volatility, Prayuth appears to have adopted a survival strategy of sweet-talking to all sides while keeping true options close to his chest.

He has dispatched his deputy General Dapong Ratanasuwan to keep the opposition happy, and designated his chief-of-staff General Sirichai Distakul to keep an eye on political developments and work with the pro-government camp.

Under his watch, the Internal Security Operations Command has, meanwhile, turned blind while the opposing camps are build up respective mass movements to sway public sentiment.

Unfortunately he appears to have chosen the role of an uninterested observer awaiting retirement instead of giving his all to end the bitter social division.

-- The Nation 2012-06-26

[theblether]

I can't wait for the day when the military are subservient to democracy in Thailand.

Until then the current shambles will continue unabated. Democracy with a gun under the table is no democracy at all.

[chotthee]

Oops, any army coup is coming again/ Perhaps.

[JohnAllan]

"Under his watch, the Internal Security Operations Command has, meanwhile, turned blind while the opposing camps are build up respective mass movements to sway public sentiment."

"Unfortunately he appears to have chosen the role of an uninterested observer awaiting retirement instead of giving his all to end the bitter social division."

In pursuit of grammatical pedantics, '. . . turned blind . . .' should read '. . . turned a blind eye . . .'; there shouldn't be an 'are' before 'build'; and 'uninterested' should read 'disinterested.'

[JohnAllan]

I can't wait for the day when the military are subservient to democracy in Thailand.

Until then the current shambles will continue unabated. Democracy with a gun under the table is no democracy at all.

Establishing some sort of viable democracy would be a start.

[JohnAllan]

I can't wait for the day when the military are subservient to democracy in Thailand.

Until then the current shambles will continue unabated. Democracy with a gun under the table is no democracy at all.

They first need to have a viable form of democracy.

[swillowbee]

... this really is a time when a major change in the very foundations of Thai government power is threatening.

... historically, the Royal Thai Army has done well to side with the perpetual rulers of Thailand, the royalists ... saving the monarchy has always resonated with the millions of passified prai.

... fast-forward to 2012 ... the prai have found their voice and tasted power over the royalists who have long controlled their destinies ... the Royal Thai Army's cry to save the monarchy is no longer viewed by them the same way as in the past.

... the Thai feudal system by which the royalists have dominated the subservient, passified millions will eventually fail ... history is on the side of the millions ... but, for right now, the timing of that inevitability is uncertain.

... the tricky part is when will the transition from a feudal system controlled by the royalists be superceded by a government controlled by the millions ... if the Royal Thai Army jumps too soon to the side of the millions and the royalists maintain their control, they will be guilty of abdicating their responsibilities to the monarchy ... if they wait too late to jump to the side of the millions, they will be caught in a losing battle against the millions (perhaps civil war). ... neither prospect is particularly healthy for the Royal Thai Army.

... so ... better to sit on the fence and wait to see which of the two Thai mobs carries the day.

Edited June 26, 2012 by swillowbee

[Nickymaster]

I can't wait for the day when the military are subservient to democracy in Thailand.

Until then the current shambles will continue unabated. Democracy with a gun under the table is no democracy at all.

That would be bad. That means that guys like Thaksin can do WHATEVER they want with this country.

[Pseudolus]

Both sides should put the Army in it's place; a service directed by the parliament. Stop kowtowing to them. Stop empowering them. Start treating them as a tool used for the country and not as a political weapon; the Hiso'd version of throwing their toys out of their pram

"Mummy, I have not been in the cabinet for 18 months now, and not had the couple of billion baht in bribes a year to piss away in brothels. I'm gonna cwy"

"Ok darling, I will call your Uncle Somchai and he'll have a nice coup for you. Is that ok?"

If they continue, there will be a Police coup one day as well. Then a Navy one (Coup on Phuket). Maybe the health service will get in on the act and have a nice coup? Customs and exise might throw a mini coup which could be painful.

Thailand - Grow up. tossers.

[swillowbee]

I can't wait for the day when the military are subservient to democracy in Thailand.

Until then the current shambles will continue unabated. Democracy with a gun under the table is no democracy at all.

That would be bad. That means that guys like Thaksin can do WHATEVER they want with this country.

.

... the military as defacto power in Thailand will eventually have to go, for sure ... history is on the side of democracy.

... that unsettling period will probably not be followed by peace and tranquility and any semblance of an enlightened democracy.

... as you point out, people as Toxin will probably quickly fill the vacuum and they will do whatever they want ... Thai feudalism will be likely replaced by a kleptocratic oligarchy, maybe similar to Russia.

... the kleptocratic oligarchy will naturally eventually abuse the Thai people until there is a popular rebellion and a succeeding government, a bit closer to an enlightened democracy, will replace it ... perhaps decades, and generations.

Edited June 26, 2012 by swillowbee