Don't Follow Greece's Hidden-Debt Path: Ammar

[Moruya]

From Bloomberg http://www.bloomberg...ng-markets.html

In a Bloomberg Markets ranking, Thailand is second only to China among the world’s best emerging markets for investors. The ranking looks at a series of measures such as market transparency and prospects for growth over the next four years.

Thailand has developed such successful electronics and auto industries that it now produces from 35 to 40 percent of all computer hard disk drives and, in 2010, built more light trucks than Japan.

In agriculture, besides being the world’s biggest rice exporter, Thailand ranks No. 1 in rubber and No. 2 in sugar. The country that brands itself the Land of Smiles has consistently remained one of the world’s top 20 tourism destinations, attracting more visitors in 2010 than Greece.

In 1983, Cupertino, California-based Seagate Technology Plc (STX), the world’s biggest maker of hard disk drives, began production in Bangkok.

Western Digital Corp., its Irvine, California-based rival, followed suit, as did U.S. automakers Ford Motor Co. (F) and General Motors Co.

Hundreds of Thai companies sprang up to supply parts. From 1971 through 2010, Thailand’s annual GDP growth averaged 6 percent despite being buffeted by coups and financial crises.

Japan is the biggest foreign investor in Thailand; it pumped $3.15 billion into the country in 2010.

The son of a Voice of America correspondent, Heinecke, 62, gave up his U.S. citizenship in 1992 to take Thai nationality. Political protest in 2007 that closed Bangkok’s two airports for a week, stranding 400,000 travelers. During the worst times, Heinecke’s hotel occupancy rates plunged to less than 20 percent, he says. And yet his business has grown from a single hotel to 70 resorts; 1,200 restaurants, including a Burger King franchise; and 200 retail stores, including Gap Inc. outlets.

I'm perfectly aware that some companies have done very well in Thailand over the years - and I'm also aware that due to the rising cost of labour of some of the companies mentioned here are looking to relocate

My figures above relate to the financial state of Thailand as an entity - not to companies that are either foreign JVs (where 49% of the profit will be expatriated) or wholly Thai owned businesses - I hope you can see the difference.

What I can see is you have been outclassed in your argument. Bloomberg does not agree with you. Nor would anyone else who did not have an axe to grind. Make it small so you can understand. How much does Ford contribute to the Thai economy and how much does it take out? How much of that was there before Ford came? The one new Ford plant in Rayong; how much does it pay in salaries? How much does it buy in auto parts? How much does it contribute in new cash to the Thai economy?

And you're a teacher?

[kerryk]

From Bloomberg http://www.bloomberg...ng-markets.html

In a Bloomberg Markets ranking, Thailand is second only to China among the world's best emerging markets for investors. The ranking looks at a series of measures such as market transparency and prospects for growth over the next four years.

Thailand has developed such successful electronics and auto industries that it now produces from 35 to 40 percent of all computer hard disk drives and, in 2010, built more light trucks than Japan.

In agriculture, besides being the world's biggest rice exporter, Thailand ranks No. 1 in rubber and No. 2 in sugar. The country that brands itself the Land of Smiles has consistently remained one of the world's top 20 tourism destinations, attracting more visitors in 2010 than Greece.

In 1983, Cupertino, California-based Seagate Technology Plc (STX), the world's biggest maker of hard disk drives, began production in Bangkok.

Western Digital Corp., its Irvine, California-based rival, followed suit, as did U.S. automakers Ford Motor Co. (F) and General Motors Co.

Hundreds of Thai companies sprang up to supply parts. From 1971 through 2010, Thailand's annual GDP growth averaged 6 percent despite being buffeted by coups and financial crises.

Japan is the biggest foreign investor in Thailand; it pumped $3.15 billion into the country in 2010.

The son of a Voice of America correspondent, Heinecke, 62, gave up his U.S. citizenship in 1992 to take Thai nationality. Political protest in 2007 that closed Bangkok's two airports for a week, stranding 400,000 travelers. During the worst times, Heinecke's hotel occupancy rates plunged to less than 20 percent, he says. And yet his business has grown from a single hotel to 70 resorts; 1,200 restaurants, including a Burger King franchise; and 200 retail stores, including Gap Inc. outlets.

I'm perfectly aware that some companies have done very well in Thailand over the years - and I'm also aware that due to the rising cost of labour of some of the companies mentioned here are looking to relocate

My figures above relate to the financial state of Thailand as an entity - not to companies that are either foreign JVs (where 49% of the profit will be expatriated) or wholly Thai owned businesses - I hope you can see the difference.

What I can see is you have been outclassed in your argument. Bloomberg does not agree with you. Nor would anyone else who did not have an axe to grind. Make it small so you can understand. How much does Ford contribute to the Thai economy and how much does it take out? How much of that was there before Ford came? The one new Ford plant in Rayong; how much does it pay in salaries? How much does it buy in auto parts? How much does it contribute in new cash to the Thai economy?

And you're a teacher?

I was a department head and professor on a university level in the US. I studied economics with Abba P Lerner.

[Moruya]

And you're a teacher?

I was a department head and professor on a university level in the US. I studied economics with Abba P Lerner.

Oh dear me....

Well, one quick point - you stated today that Thailand's GDP for 2011 is 300 billion USD

You also stated that the Japanese investment is 3 billion.

I make that around 1% - are you with me?

This new plant that Ford is building - do you think that is worth more to the Thai economy than the Japanese?

If not then you are looking at 2% maximum of the GDP - agreed?

Now whilst I have been talking about the Thai economy, you have been talking about whether it is good to invest in Thailand - 2 very different things.

Now - sticking within the realms of this thread, why is Greece in the poop financially?

[kerryk]

And you're a teacher?

I was a department head and professor on a university level in the US. I studied economics with Abba P Lerner.

Oh dear me....

Well, one quick point - you stated today that Thailand's GDP for 2011 is 300 billion USD

You also stated that the Japanese investment is 3 billion.

I make that around 1% - are you with me?

This new plant that Ford is building - do you think that is worth more to the Thai economy than the Japanese?

If not then you are looking at 2% maximum of the GDP - agreed?

Now whilst I have been talking about the Thai economy, you have been talking about whether it is good to invest in Thailand - 2 very different things.

Now - sticking within the realms of this thread, why is Greece in the poop financially?

There are people who get paid to evaluate the Thai economy in terms of short and long term investment. They are almost unanimous in their positive verdict even Dr. Doom.

Ford isn't building a new plant they already opened it. It will be up and running 100% in a year or so ask me then what the economic impact will be. I think remember reading Ford will buy 800 million in parts locally but I don't know the specifics. I am sure you can look it up.

Greece; from what I hear on the news they pay too much to the public sector. Of course the Euro had to be nuts to let them in. It would be like Thailand joining their currency with Burma and not thinking there would be a problem.

Did you know Ford was in Thailand in 1938? Long time eh?

[Moruya]

And you're a teacher?

I was a department head and professor on a university level in the US. I studied economics with Abba P Lerner.

Oh dear me....

Well, one quick point - you stated today that Thailand's GDP for 2011 is 300 billion USD

You also stated that the Japanese investment is 3 billion.

I make that around 1% - are you with me?

This new plant that Ford is building - do you think that is worth more to the Thai economy than the Japanese?

If not then you are looking at 2% maximum of the GDP - agreed?

Now whilst I have been talking about the Thai economy, you have been talking about whether it is good to invest in Thailand - 2 very different things.

Now - sticking within the realms of this thread, why is Greece in the poop financially?

There are people who get paid to evaluate the Thai economy in terms of short and long term investment. They are almost unanimous in their positive verdict even Dr. Doom.

Ford isn't building a new plant they already opened it. It will be up and running 100% in a year or so ask me then what the economic impact will be. I think remember reading Ford will buy 800 million in parts locally but I don't know the specifics. I am sure you can look it up.

Greece; from what I hear on the news they pay too much to the public sector. Of course the Euro had to be nuts to let them in. It would be like Thailand joining their currency with Burma and not thinking there would be a problem.

Did you know Ford was in Thailand in 1938? Long time eh?

Greece is in the poop because it has too much debt to pay and the ECB/IMF will only lend more if they have the financial regimen in place is cut the debt and repay the loans. If the ECB/IMF do not lend further money then Greece is bankrupt.

It's bit like a person who has run up too many credit card bills and can no longer afford the monthly interest - they either strike up some kind of deal with the bank or they go bankrupt.

So, there is a finite limit of debt and as a country, when you get to that line, your credit rating drops, your interest rates go up and you're in even worse poop.

Well Thailand's debts increase as exports drop, they increase as imports rise and they increase as government expenditure increases.

To offest that, Thailand needs a balance of payments that is in credit - even more so as it is an export driven economy.

Thailamd also needs to collect more revenue from tax. It just cut corporate tax from 30% to 23% and it will drop to 20% next year. You guesssed - less income = higher debt.

Have I bamboozled you?

[kerryk]

I have to leave now. Can't really answer you but consider Thailand will grow at 6% per year for the next 10 years. And they have a lot of foreign currency to spend. And they have investors lining up to pay attention to Mark Farber and Mark Mobius two of the most respected financial advisors in the world who are both very positive on Thailand and in agreement with me and not in agreement with you. So what you got here is Kerry and Farber and Mobius billions and billions of dollars invested in Thailand; in fact 21% of the Templeton Asian Growth fund (16.5 billion) is invested in Thailand on one hand and Moruya on the other hand. How much you got to invest? I am just saying if you got 50 or 60 billion invested in another country I'll listen to your opinion.

Edited July 7, 2012 by kerryk

[Moruya]

I have to leave now. Can't really answer you but consider Thailand will grow at 6% per year for the next 10 years. And they have a lot of foreign currency to spend. And they have investors lining up to pay attention to Mark Farber and Mark Mobius two of the most respected financial advisors in the world who are both very positive on Thailand and in agreement with me and not in agreement with you. So what you got here is Kerry and Farber and Mobius billions and billions of dollars invested in Thailand; in fact 21% of the Templeton Asian Growth fund (16.5 billion) is invested in Thailand on one hand and Moruya on the other hand. How much you got to invest? I am just saying if you got 50 or 60 billion invested in another country I'll listen to your opinion.

Chok dee

[waza]

From Bloomberg http://www.bloomberg...ng-markets.html

In a Bloomberg Markets ranking, Thailand is second only to China among the world’s best emerging markets for investors. The ranking looks at a series of measures such as market transparency and prospects for growth over the next four years.

Thailand has developed such successful electronics and auto industries that it now produces from 35 to 40 percent of all computer hard disk drives and, in 2010, built more light trucks than Japan.

In agriculture, besides being the world’s biggest rice exporter, Thailand ranks No. 1 in rubber and No. 2 in sugar. The country that brands itself the Land of Smiles has consistently remained one of the world’s top 20 tourism destinations, attracting more visitors in 2010 than Greece.

In 1983, Cupertino, California-based Seagate Technology Plc (STX), the world’s biggest maker of hard disk drives, began production in Bangkok.

Western Digital Corp., its Irvine, California-based rival, followed suit, as did U.S. automakers Ford Motor Co. (F) and General Motors Co.

Hundreds of Thai companies sprang up to supply parts. From 1971 through 2010, Thailand’s annual GDP growth averaged 6 percent despite being buffeted by coups and financial crises.

Japan is the biggest foreign investor in Thailand; it pumped $3.15 billion into the country in 2010.

The son of a Voice of America correspondent, Heinecke, 62, gave up his U.S. citizenship in 1992 to take Thai nationality. Political protest in 2007 that closed Bangkok’s two airports for a week, stranding 400,000 travelers. During the worst times, Heinecke’s hotel occupancy rates plunged to less than 20 percent, he says. And yet his business has grown from a single hotel to 70 resorts; 1,200 restaurants, including a Burger King franchise; and 200 retail stores, including Gap Inc. outlets.

What you seem to forget is that Bloomberg article only mentions developing economies. Therefore, countries like Singapore, Hong Kong, South Korea, Japan, Malaysia and Taiwan arent included for comparison because they are developed countries.

However, the economist magazine state...............The economies of China and India are considered to be the largest.[1] ..........[2] Emerging market hedge fund capital reached a record new level in the first quarter of 2011 of $121 billion.[3] The eight largest emerging and developing economies by either nominal GDP or GDP (PPP) are China, Brazil, Russia, India, Mexico, South Korea, Indonesia, and Turkey......

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emerging_markets

IMF 2012

Table 1. Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections

Rate ASEAN as 3rd to China 1st, India 2nd

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2012/update/01/

So ASEAN as a whole is only a distant 3rd behind China and India. How much of the ASEAN economy does Thailand have?

Thailand hasnt developed any successful electronics and auto industries they have provide the land and industrial requirements for multinational companies to do that.

Thanks to the policies of the Yingluck government Thailand is no longer the world’s biggest rice exporter its the world largest rice stockpiler.

Thanks to the red riots, flooding, increasing violence and corruption towards tourist and the GFC, Thailands tourism is in a slump.

Thailand’s annual GDP growth averaged 6 percent despite being buffeted by coups and financial crises. Not this year or last year.........

BANGKOK, May 23 - The World Bank projects the Thai economy to grow 4.5 per cent this year, recovering from 0.1 per cent growth last year when the country’s economy was impacted by Japan’s tsunami, devastating floods and the eurozone debt crisis. http://www.thaivisa....gdp-to-grow-45/

In 2012, Thailand’s real GDP is predicted to be at 4.5%. Growth is due to lower global prices, government corporate tax reduction, a strong banking sector, and high international reserves. http://asiapacific.a...ilient-economy/

The only one predicting Thailands GDP to be around 6% is the Bank of Thailand..............

The Bank of Thailand yesterday lowered its 2012 export growth target to 8 per cent from 9 per cent because of the euro crisis, but left its economic-growth forecast untouched at about 6 per cent on the expectation that rising domestic demand would offset slowing exports.

http://www.bdo-thait...n-the-news/4283

Also from Bloomberg is ......

Japanese companies, Thailand’s biggest foreign investors, may spend more to build factories in neighbors including Indonesia and Vietnam after the worst flooding in 70 years disrupted global production.

Edited July 7, 2012 by waza

[Thai at Heart]

From Bloomberg http://www.bloomberg...ng-markets.html

In a Bloomberg Markets ranking, Thailand is second only to China among the world’s best emerging markets for investors. The ranking looks at a series of measures such as market transparency and prospects for growth over the next four years.

Thailand has developed such successful electronics and auto industries that it now produces from 35 to 40 percent of all computer hard disk drives and, in 2010, built more light trucks than Japan.

In agriculture, besides being the world’s biggest rice exporter, Thailand ranks No. 1 in rubber and No. 2 in sugar. The country that brands itself the Land of Smiles has consistently remained one of the world’s top 20 tourism destinations, attracting more visitors in 2010 than Greece.

In 1983, Cupertino, California-based Seagate Technology Plc (STX), the world’s biggest maker of hard disk drives, began production in Bangkok.

Western Digital Corp., its Irvine, California-based rival, followed suit, as did U.S. automakers Ford Motor Co. (F) and General Motors Co.

Hundreds of Thai companies sprang up to supply parts. From 1971 through 2010, Thailand’s annual GDP growth averaged 6 percent despite being buffeted by coups and financial crises.

Japan is the biggest foreign investor in Thailand; it pumped $3.15 billion into the country in 2010.

The son of a Voice of America correspondent, Heinecke, 62, gave up his U.S. citizenship in 1992 to take Thai nationality. Political protest in 2007 that closed Bangkok’s two airports for a week, stranding 400,000 travelers. During the worst times, Heinecke’s hotel occupancy rates plunged to less than 20 percent, he says. And yet his business has grown from a single hotel to 70 resorts; 1,200 restaurants, including a Burger King franchise; and 200 retail stores, including Gap Inc. outlets.

Whilst i share your optimism that Thailand will survive, i wouldn't get to exited about Thailand position in the hard disc industry. A friend of mine just lost his job supplying packaging to load components for the hard disc business here in Thailand. 3 years agoanother friend of nine lost his job working as a supplier to seagate. As an industry, his opinion is that hard discs won't exist in 5 years. Solid state will be cheaper, easier and quicker to produce, so Thailand better find something to replace it.

[kerryk]

From Bloomberg http://www.bloomberg...ng-markets.html

In a Bloomberg Markets ranking, Thailand is second only to China among the world’s best emerging markets for investors. The ranking looks at a series of measures such as market transparency and prospects for growth over the next four years.

Thailand has developed such successful electronics and auto industries that it now produces from 35 to 40 percent of all computer hard disk drives and, in 2010, built more light trucks than Japan.

In agriculture, besides being the world’s biggest rice exporter, Thailand ranks No. 1 in rubber and No. 2 in sugar. The country that brands itself the Land of Smiles has consistently remained one of the world’s top 20 tourism destinations, attracting more visitors in 2010 than Greece.

In 1983, Cupertino, California-based Seagate Technology Plc (STX), the world’s biggest maker of hard disk drives, began production in Bangkok.

Western Digital Corp., its Irvine, California-based rival, followed suit, as did U.S. automakers Ford Motor Co. (F) and General Motors Co.

Hundreds of Thai companies sprang up to supply parts. From 1971 through 2010, Thailand’s annual GDP growth averaged 6 percent despite being buffeted by coups and financial crises.

Japan is the biggest foreign investor in Thailand; it pumped $3.15 billion into the country in 2010.

The son of a Voice of America correspondent, Heinecke, 62, gave up his U.S. citizenship in 1992 to take Thai nationality. Political protest in 2007 that closed Bangkok’s two airports for a week, stranding 400,000 travelers. During the worst times, Heinecke’s hotel occupancy rates plunged to less than 20 percent, he says. And yet his business has grown from a single hotel to 70 resorts; 1,200 restaurants, including a Burger King franchise; and 200 retail stores, including Gap Inc. outlets.

What you seem to forget is that Bloomberg article only mentions developing economies. Therefore, countries like Singapore, Hong Kong, South Korea, Japan, Malaysia and Taiwan arent included for comparison because they are developed countries.

However, the economist magazine state...............The economies of China and India are considered to be the largest.[1] ..........[2] Emerging market hedge fund capital reached a record new level in the first quarter of 2011 of $121 billion.[3] The eight largest emerging and developing economies by either nominal GDP or GDP (PPP) are China, Brazil, Russia, India, Mexico, South Korea, Indonesia, and Turkey......

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emerging_markets

IMF 2012

Table 1. Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections

Rate ASEAN as 3rd to China 1st, India 2nd

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2012/update/01/

So now we see that Thailand h Bloomberg......

All could find from Bloomberg is ......

Japanese companies, Thailand’s biggest foreign investors, may spend more to build factories in neighbors including Indonesia and Vietnam after the worst flooding in 70 years disrupted global production.

What you fail to mention is the name of your article is, "

World Economic Outlook Update

Global Recovery Stalls, Downside Risks Intensify."

Thailand is not mentioned because it's economy is not stalling and there is little downside risk.

Next time try and find some supporting documents from economists who support you view that Thailand is going to heck in a handbag. At least I think that is your view.

[KeyserSoze01]

Back to the OP. The Thai government rice purchase scheme amounts to no more that the government subsidizing the rice industry. Effectively setting a floor for rice prices, irregardless of whether the purchases are from the mills/storage facilities or the farmer directly. Hardly anything new here as many countries subsidize their agriculture industry.

Where the rub comes in is that the government is trying to hide the investment on the bank's balance sheet, inside of openly reporting it on their own balance sheet. It is politics as usual.

[waza]

From Bloomberg http://www.bloomberg...ng-markets.html

In a Bloomberg Markets ranking, Thailand is second only to China among the world’s best emerging markets for investors. The ranking looks at a series of measures such as market transparency and prospects for growth over the next four years.

Thailand has developed such successful electronics and auto industries that it now produces from 35 to 40 percent of all computer hard disk drives and, in 2010, built more light trucks than Japan.

In agriculture, besides being the world’s biggest rice exporter, Thailand ranks No. 1 in rubber and No. 2 in sugar. The country that brands itself the Land of Smiles has consistently remained one of the world’s top 20 tourism destinations, attracting more visitors in 2010 than Greece.

In 1983, Cupertino, California-based Seagate Technology Plc (STX), the world’s biggest maker of hard disk drives, began production in Bangkok.

Western Digital Corp., its Irvine, California-based rival, followed suit, as did U.S. automakers Ford Motor Co. (F) and General Motors Co.

Hundreds of Thai companies sprang up to supply parts. From 1971 through 2010, Thailand’s annual GDP growth averaged 6 percent despite being buffeted by coups and financial crises.

Japan is the biggest foreign investor in Thailand; it pumped $3.15 billion into the country in 2010.

The son of a Voice of America correspondent, Heinecke, 62, gave up his U.S. citizenship in 1992 to take Thai nationality. Political protest in 2007 that closed Bangkok’s two airports for a week, stranding 400,000 travelers. During the worst times, Heinecke’s hotel occupancy rates plunged to less than 20 percent, he says. And yet his business has grown from a single hotel to 70 resorts; 1,200 restaurants, including a Burger King franchise; and 200 retail stores, including Gap Inc. outlets.

What you seem to forget is that Bloomberg article only mentions developing economies. Therefore, countries like Singapore, Hong Kong, South Korea, Japan, Malaysia and Taiwan arent included for comparison because they are developed countries.

However, the economist magazine state...............The economies of China and India are considered to be the largest.[1] ..........[2] Emerging market hedge fund capital reached a record new level in the first quarter of 2011 of $121 billion.[3] The eight largest emerging and developing economies by either nominal GDP or GDP (PPP) are China, Brazil, Russia, India, Mexico, South Korea, Indonesia, and Turkey......

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emerging_markets

IMF 2012

Table 1. Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections

Rate ASEAN as 3rd to China 1st, India 2nd

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2012/update/01/

So now we see that Thailand h Bloomberg......

All could find from Bloomberg is ......

Japanese companies, Thailand’s biggest foreign investors, may spend more to build factories in neighbors including Indonesia and Vietnam after the worst flooding in 70 years disrupted global production.

What you fail to mention is the name of your article is, "

World Economic Outlook Update

Global Recovery Stalls, Downside Risks Intensify."

Thailand is not mentioned because it's economy is not stalling and there is little downside risk.

Next time try and find some supporting documents from economists who support you view that Thailand is going to heck in a handbag. At least I think that is your view.

Thailand is mentioned but its lumped in with ASEAN

Thailand, like the Saudis in oil, became the key producer, the country that could always moderate global prices with its abundant reserves. This year, while corn and wheat prices have reached new highs, ample stockpiles of Thai rice have driven rice prices down. Supunnabul Suwannakij

This is the same guy who wrote your Bloomberg article he is a reporter for Bloomberg News in Bangkok, not an economist.

[kerryk]

Back to the OP. The Thai government rice purchase scheme amounts to no more that the government subsidizing the rice industry. Effectively setting a floor for rice prices, irregardless of whether the purchases are from the mills/storage facilities or the farmer directly. Hardly anything new here as many countries subsidize their agriculture industry.

Where the rub comes in is that the government is trying to hide the investment on the bank's balance sheet, inside of openly reporting it on their own balance sheet. It is politics as usual.

Good summation. The idea is not a good one. The current government thinks the voting public is dumb. They want the Bangkok elite to pay for farmers staying on the farm. Perhaps they picked the wrong economist as this guy is also against 30 baht health care.

[ttelise]

Holy <deleted> cow, both the article and the focus of these discussions show a complete lack of grasp on current macro and micro economic issues as well as the the underlying issues with Greece, Italy, Spain and the Euro.

[kerryk]

Holy <deleted> cow, both the article and the focus of these discussions show a complete lack of grasp on current macro and micro economic issues as well as the the underlying issues with Greece, Italy, Spain and the Euro.

I didn't think the OP was about the underlying issues wth Greece, Italy, Spain and the Euro but why don't you tell us about the current macro and micro economic issues in Thailand's transfer of hidden debt.

Holy <deleted> cow if you know what they are. Not the underlying issues with Greece, Italy, Spain and the Euro but Thailand.

[ttelise]

Holy <deleted> cow, both the article and the focus of these discussions show a complete lack of grasp on current macro and micro economic issues as well as the the underlying issues with Greece, Italy, Spain and the Euro.

I didn't think the OP was about the underlying issues wth Greece, Italy, Spain and the Euro but why don't you tell us about the current macro and micro economic issues in Thailand's transfer of hidden debt.

Holy <deleted> cow if you know what they are. Not the underlying issues with Greece, Italy, Spain and the Euro but Thailand.

Haha, I see no point in arguing with people educated by Wikipedia. Entertaining nonetheless. Please continue.

I did explain a few weeks ago why some Thai economist was absolutely clueless about Euros effect on Thai currency/economy and looks like today l they might get it based on title of Yinluck/Euro thread though I haven't read it yet.

Edited July 7, 2012 by ttelise

[kerryk]

Holy <deleted> cow, both the article and the focus of these discussions show a complete lack of grasp on current macro and micro economic issues as well as the the underlying issues with Greece, Italy, Spain and the Euro.

I didn't think the OP was about the underlying issues wth Greece, Italy, Spain and the Euro but why don't you tell us about the current macro and micro economic issues in Thailand's transfer of hidden debt.

Holy <deleted> cow if you know what they are. Not the underlying issues with Greece, Italy, Spain and the Euro but Thailand.

Haha, I see no point in arguing with people educated by Wikipedia. Entertaining nonetheless. Please continue.

I did explain a few weeks ago why some Thai economist was absolutely clueless about Euros effect on Thai currency/economy and looks like today l they might get it based on title of Yinluck/Euro thread though I haven't read it yet.

I think you are saying you are too smart for the rest of us. Hardly a way to make friends. Well maybe the Yellow shirt guys? Holy <deleted> cow you must be very intelligent.

[ttelise]

How can one have an informed opinion as to whether Thailand will mane same mistakes as Greece if one has no clue as to what happened in Greece?

[ttelise]

Holy <deleted> cow, both the article and the focus of these discussions show a complete lack of grasp on current macro and micro economic issues as well as the the underlying issues with Greece, Italy, Spain and the Euro.

I didn't think the OP was about the underlying issues wth Greece, Italy, Spain and the Euro but why don't you tell us about the current macro and micro economic issues in Thailand's transfer of hidden debt.

Holy <deleted> cow if you know what they are. Not the underlying issues with Greece, Italy, Spain and the Euro but Thailand.

Haha, I see no point in arguing with people educated by Wikipedia. Entertaining nonetheless. Please continue.

I did explain a few weeks ago why some Thai economist was absolutely clueless about Euros effect on Thai currency/economy and looks like today l they might get it based on title of Yinluck/Euro thread though I haven't read it yet.

I think you are saying you are too smart for the rest of us. Hardly a way to make friends. Well maybe the Yellow shirt guys? Holy <deleted> cow you must be very intelligent.

It's called JD/MBA v. Education by Wikipedia

[kerryk]

How can one have an informed opinion as to whether Thailand will mane same mistakes as Greece if one has no clue as to what happened in Greece?

I believe the OP was only talking about one part of the Greece debacle as it relates to hidden debt. Since Thailand does ot share a currency with anyone or owe that much money to another country.

[ttelise]

How can one have an informed opinion as to whether Thailand will mane same mistakes as Greece if one has no clue as to what happened in Greece?

I believe the OP was only talking about one part of the Greece debacle as it relates to hidden debt. Since Thailand does ot share a currency with anyone or owe that much money to another country.

Haha, that's why the argument about GDP and the best part was about China and Thailand investing in emerging markets so they are strong . . .

Anyway, the OP must also use Wikipedia because he says:

"In the past, the Greek government hid public debts. Two years ago it had to tell the world about the actual amount of debt, leading to the sovereign debt crisis, Ammar said."

Uhm Greece had to come clean in November 2004 about deficit and debt numbers when due diligence done by Euro committee after Greece joined Euro in January of 2001. There is some argument as to whether Greece used cross currency swaps to comply with terms of Euro treaty (as did many other countries) or to derive income from these risky derivative investments. Greece, however, admited its debt and deficit numbers in 2004 which then clearly showed that Greece's deficit had never been below 3 % since 1999 as mandated by Euro rules.

Greece also publically reported debt number after calculating costs to host 2004 Olympics and promptly raised VAT and passed tax hikes in 2005. Greece reported deficit increases from 160bn to 270bn between 2004 and mid 2009. Two years ago, a downgrade occurred when when Greece's deficit approached 6 % (again, nothing about hidden debt), and the costs of borrowing went much higher (adding proverbial insult to injury). After strikes in protest due to cutbacks, the spread between interest charged on Greek and German debt widened to 4%. Austerity hits in 2010. Public workers strike as a result of freezes on public sector pay and tax increases on low and middle incomes. Merkel tells Greece they are own their own in 2010. Credit slips to BB+ in 2010. This, however, does not address fundamental budgeting problems caused by their entitlement/welfare structure which set ball in motion. Inability to fund public debt at a reasonable costs due to junk bond status is simply salt in the wound, but far from the heart of the matter. Damage has been done long ago.

So unless Thailand is about to enter the Euro and utilizes cross currency credit swaps which was simply one of many techniques utilized by MANY European countries to comply with the terms of the treaty, and then lose big time once the economy implodes in 2007 (when derivatives and credit swaps began getting hammered and Greece GDP and deficit was improving in 2006), then I think the article and OP's statements/analysis is bunk and shows a lack of clear understanding or is used to manipulate those without a clue into backing his policies or beliefs.

Edited July 7, 2012 by ttelise