Thai Constitution Court Ruling Will Not Curb Bitter Political Divide

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BURNING ISSUE

Ruling won't curb bitter political divide

Avudh Panananda

The Nation

BANGKOK: -- Anxiety over the fate of the charter amendment bill and its sponsors has been ramped up by the Constitution Court picking Friday the 13th to hand down its momentous ruling on the case.

The anti- and pro-amendment camps will submit their written closing statements tomorrow - two days ahead of the verdict reading.

However, the outcome of the judicial review will, unfortunately, have little bearing on the political polarisation over the charter change. The judgement is expected to address legal aspects of the bill and not political implications.

The opposing camps are gearing up to fortify their fight. The judicial decision will, at best, shed light on the extent to which charter changes are permitted.

This will please no one, however, because the anti-amendment camp will still aim to block Pheu Thai Party at every step of the way while the pro-amendment camp will not stop short of promulgating a new charter.

Some tough issues are looming and will dominate the political landscape until all sides can mend fences and work out a compromise on the political system.

So long as the rival camps are determined to have their own way regardless of judicial decisions, political volatility will remain and grow worse.

Should the verdict favour the anti-amendment camp, the push for charter change will just change tack to overcome conformity issues.

If the verdict allows amendment of the charter, opponents will continue to sway sentiment in a bid to derail the changes as much as possible.

With both camps trying to outwit each other by manipulating the rulebook, the country will likely be engulfed in fractious politics for the foreseeable future.

Following the verdict on Friday the 13th, the pro-amendment camp will likely have to fine-tune its push for charter change.

Emerging scenarios range from holding a referendum before forming the Constitution Drafting Assembly (CDA), to kick-start the CDA with a limited mandate in order to comply with constitutional issues, to revise certain draft provisions before the bill's final passage, or to rewrite the bill before a new round of legislative deliberation.

The anti-amendment camp will also adjust its tactics to counter the proponents. The opponents are expected to cite judicial and legislative procedures in order to force the government to yield and abandon, or at least minimise, any rewrite of the charter.

Bickering between the two camps will reach a crescendo in the lead-up to the referendum, which could come either before or at the conclusion of charter rewriting.

Even if the high court dismisses the case as lacking merit for judicial review, or if there is a four-to-four deadlock by the eight justices in forming a verdict, the camps will merely continue to fight in the court of public opinion.

The pro-amendment camp will try to fan anti-coup sentiment to enhance their mandate to overhaul the charter.

While the anti-amendment camp will counter by attacking the ulterior motive - trampling on the rule of law in order to "rescue" fugitive former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

Come rain or shine, the camps will keep on settling old scores with reckless disregard for the damage inflicted on the country.

-- The Nation 2012-07-10

[Yunla]

unfortunately, have little bearing on the political polarisation over the charter change

PTP should have let 'sleeping dogs lie', and left Thaksin off the parliamentary agenda entirely.

PTP should have got on with their elected job to enact essential bills for reforming education and national infrastructure, increasing equality, battling corruption, to improve the lives of all Thais including PTP voters. If Yingluck had done those things, then DP would have gladly worked side-by-side with her in parliament, and there would not be this 'polarisation' in parliament or in the wider nation.

People warned PTP about this before the unity bill was even drafted, they said the Thaksin-absolution, Supreme Court violation, and constitutional alterations could result in civil war. As regards finger-pointing, the current polarisation has a single clear target and it is even marked in red.

Edited July 10, 2012 by Yunla

[SuneeTH]

I suspect that PTP will be banned for 5 years, and charged for LM.

Than a new election, and this time Yingluck mother wins.

Than constitution court will rule again, saying if ex-husband a criminal, ex-wife cannot be PM.

Mark than form government from the army base AGAIN.

And Thailand live happily ever after.

Edited July 10, 2012 by SuneeTH

[Siripon]

I suspect that PTP will be banned for 5 years, and charged for LM.

Than a new election, and this time Yingluck mother wins.

Than constitution court will rule again, saying if ex-husband a criminal, ex-wife cannot be PM.

Mark than form government from the army base AGAIN.

And Thailand live happily ever after.

Yingluk's mother has been dead a long time.

[maeab]

Thats the best news ive heard in a long time.

[Thai at Heart]

I suspect that PTP will be banned for 5 years, and charged for LM.

Than a new election, and this time Yingluck mother wins.

Than constitution court will rule again, saying if ex-husband a criminal, ex-wife cannot be PM.

Mark than form government from the army base AGAIN.

And Thailand live happily ever after.

If they are disbanded for lese majeste, that really would be a case of Nothenation mimicking reality far too well.

[Moruya]

I suspect that PTP will be banned for 5 years, and charged for LM.

Than a new election, and this time Yingluck mother wins.

Than constitution court will rule again, saying if ex-husband a criminal, ex-wife cannot be PM.

Mark than form government from the army base AGAIN.

And Thailand live happily ever after.

Maybe Samak can make a come-back from the grave.

The interviews would be the same

[OzMick]

I suspect that PTP will be banned for 5 years, and charged for LM.

Than a new election, and this time Yingluck mother wins.

Than constitution court will rule again, saying if ex-husband a criminal, ex-wife cannot be PM.

Mark than form government from the army base AGAIN.

And Thailand live happily ever after.

You seem quite confused about Shinawatra family relationships. Thaksin and Yingluk are siblings, and while it is biologically possible that she is also his daughter, I think you are taking a common description of him far too literally.

[Moruya]

I suspect that PTP will be banned for 5 years, and charged for LM.

Than a new election, and this time Yingluck mother wins.

Than constitution court will rule again, saying if ex-husband a criminal, ex-wife cannot be PM.

Mark than form government from the army base AGAIN.

And Thailand live happily ever after.

You seem quite confused about Shinawatra family relationships. Thaksin and Yingluk are siblings, and while it is biologically possible that she is also his daughter, I think you are taking a common description of him far too literally.

I was sitting here wondering if the Thais really "did" the Greek mythology thing and determined that it might be a possibility.

Then I started to think about Theseus and his similarity to Abhisit

This certainly bears considerable scrutiny when you think of Theseus wanting to discover the 6 entrances of the underworld and even more so when he defeats "clubber" Periphetes (Yonguth Doo Yen)

Sinis, who bears more than a passing resemblence to Chalerm was then next.

Following that came the Cromyonian Sow who would have to be Arisman (as a footnote Thaea would certainly be Thida)

Sciron would surely be Korkeaw

Eleusis would be Jatuporn

Procrustes would be Nattawut