Which Currency Is A Safe Haven

[Litlos]

The current state of affairs is I will have access to a reasonable sized amount of AUD in Australia in the next few weeks. I have started to look at which currency is stable so I can transfer to another currency as I firmly believe the AUD will be heading down against the other currencies shortly, probably end up at 75cents to the USD, may even overshoot based on the fact it is a Labor government.

At the present time I have funds in THB (visa plus operating funds). USD outside of Thailand, which is from salary. AUD in Australia and now in Singapore.

When I looked at opening a CHF account in Singapore, no problem but Canadian dollar is better from Citibank, hmm. My research tells me that Canada is the same as Australia and a commodity based economy, so if AUD crashes then there is a fair chance the CAN will be right there with it.

So far I have looked at historical and “commentator” data on CHF, USD, Singapore Dollar, CAN and even NZD.

I have started looking and researching currency to try and improve my knowledge base, but very early days in this and not much time to research. There seem to be a few who do follow the currencies on Thaivisa.

So the question is which currency or basket of currencies would give me the safe haven I am looking for?

Cheers

[KHR1010]

I agree with your assessment of the AUD. Depending on the election results in the US you may find happiness in the USD for the near term (2 to 4 years). HKD and SD are pretty closely tied to the USD, as the Greenback goes, they tend to follow.

Another option to think about and a fairly secure bet is Silver, historically it has followed gold up and down and maintained a relatively close ratio. However, on the last rise of gold silver has yet to increase to the historical margin below gold. Many forecasters see a correction in silver to reflect the gold prices. I maintain a 30% silver 70% gold portfolio that I started 30 years ago. Other than my AOL stock in the 90's and my Apple stock, it has out performed my entire portfolio over the long haul.

[Naam]

what currency is "SD"?

[Rancid]

SD = Singapore Dollar, seems well regarded.

[ShopBoy]

RMB !!

[WilliaminBKK]

I'm Canadian & invest in CHF-gotta love those 1000 notes.

There is a Tory Government in power who are very PRO business and the business community want a lower dollar for trade. An old statistic is every cent the CDN dollar is below the USD equates to 1 Billion dollars in exports to the US market. The only people that are happy with the CDN dollar being higher than the US are cross border shoppers.

I personally think the USD in always in flux around election time and once their stuff is over it will bounce back a little & the CDN lose some of it's value, just my 102 cents worth.

[Rowdy100]

So what exactly makes you think the Aussie $ is going to "crash".... ? The aus economy is fundamentally sound...despite the doomsayers, aus is still in the midst of a commodities boom... and the US have turned the "taps" on again and are printing their own version of "monopoly" money... QE 3 without a time-limit...zero interest rates to artifically stimulate the economy... fundamental policy issues that date back to the 1930's that is a massive drag... huge debt.. blah blah blah, so the US aren't partcualrly travelling that well... ???

The Euro zone is currently an acknowledged "basket case"... and it seems and there are pretty much dramas everywhere you look....

The aussie looks as sound as anyone right now, so I'm not so sure it's going to "crash" as you say... but would love to know what you guys are baseing this prediction on ??

Perhaps, just perhaps we might have to get used to seeing a high aussie dollar, despite it historically being up an down...??? But would love to learn more,,??

Cheers

[el jefe]

I think you answered your own question when you wrote "I firmly believe the AUD will be heading down against the other currencies shortly, probably end up at 75cents to the USD"

[Rowdy100]

btw... if you have access to some aussie dollars... buy a condo / house / property and rent it out... look for your good rental yield as opposed to projected "capital gains" (which is only a bonus) and you can't go wrong... just saying.. Aussie ppl always want a roof over their head...

[Rowdy100]

hmmm... i can't see how the aussie $ will go down that far again as to the USD$... the US economy is fundamentally flawed right now... yes it's big etc., but it's seriously compromised.... Aus. and the Aussie is not... so there's no way (IMO) it will drop that far... aint gong to happen...!

[uptheos]

Depending on the election results in the US you may find happiness in the USD for the near term (2 to 4 years).

Which candidate (if elected to office) will help the OP find happiness?

[elektrified]

I agree with your assessment of the AUD. I would recommend the CHF. I'm American but haven't owned a USD in more than 10 years!

[Rowdy100]

The Aussie $ will rock on... at unprecedented high levels....

[yoshiwara]

Watching the Aussie over the last year or so leads me to want to buy at <.9 and sell at > 1.05

If therefore the AUD is currently at ~ 1.02 then I would probably sit on it for now.

[Bpuumike]

I agree with your assessment of the AUD. Depending on the election results in the US you may find happiness in the USD for the near term (2 to 4 years). HKD and SD are pretty closely tied to the USD, as the Greenback goes, they tend to follow.

Another option to think about and a fairly secure bet is Silver, historically it has followed gold up and down and maintained a relatively close ratio. However, on the last rise of gold silver has yet to increase to the historical margin below gold. Many forecasters see a correction in silver to reflect the gold prices. I maintain a 30% silver 70% gold portfolio that I started 30 years ago. Other than my AOL stock in the 90's and my Apple stock, it has out performed my entire portfolio over the long haul.

Or even 70% silver 30% gold for the short-medium term, then back to your allocation?

[Rowdy100]

So has anyone got any valid reasons why the Aussie $ is going to fall..???

[el jefe]

So has anyone got any valid reasons why the Aussie $ is going to fall..???

i think you have a little too much home country bias, Shaun.

You gave the reason why the AUD might fall in post #7 -- "aus is still in the midst of a commodities boom"

What happens when the "boom" ends?

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=AUD&view=5Y

[Rowdy100]

so fair enough... I;m now biased because I have an aussie passport... ???

What happens if the commoditites boom doesn't end anytime soon..??

[David48]

^^ I'm an Aussie also and for the past few years I have been diversifying my risk by buying outside of Australia.

There is flawed logic in the 'buy and Australian home' ... particularly by people without Australian Dollars as it will cost them a lot in the exchange rate then, as the Aussie Dollar (hopefully) slowly depreciates against a basket of currencies their purchased asset and return on that asset will be worth less.

The Australian Property Market is still widely considered to be one of the most overvalued in the world and is kept artificially high by a number of factors including net migration into Australia and the high cost of land, partly a result of tight planning laws.

As for a currency which is considered a 'safe haven', potentially look for an Asian Nation is a solid GDP growth (thinking 3 - 5%) where there is a relatively stable government and moderate inflation.

[David48]

If you can cast your mind back to late 2008, the Aussie was getting not much more then 20 Baht per Dollar ... nothing near like the 30+ Baht we are getting now-a-days.

Aussie vs Thai Baht here

[cloudhopper]

This view might be of interest - http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2012/10/what-will-benefit-from-global-recession.html

[GuestHouse]

By definition of currency - individually non of them are a safe haven, and all of them together might be.

[TongueThaied]

Calling a spade a spade, "safe currency" is an oxymoron.

[WilliaminBKK]

So has anyone got any valid reasons why the Aussie $ is going to fall..???

I am certainly not an expert but when you say AUD fall, IMHO it is more that the USD will bounce back making the AUD/CAD worth less. Every four years our currency seems to look better because of the low USD then everything normalises after their election.

[Litlos]

Few interesting things so far. For my reasons as to why the AUD will go down to USD 0.75 that is where the Aust Treasury want it as being so high against the historical USD echange rates means there is less capital inflow for exports as the majority of the commodity trade agreements are in USD. The other reason is the mining boom is almost over, not convinced? Then look at the number of major mining new projects and expansions being downgraded and shelved, Olympic dam and Port Hedland Port are two that spring to mind. Then we have the Chinese slowing demand and developing their own sources of raw materials in Africa and the demand for Australia raw materials will decline. That should bring the boom to an end and cause the AUD to decline. Before anyone asks where the 0.75 USD figure for the AUD comes from this is a regularly quoted desired point by the Aust Government and Treasury, however now that I am specifically looking for it I cannot find it, I will have another coffee and think about where I have seen it recently.

Whilst I quoted above that the AUD will probably end up at 075 USD that does not automatically make the USD the best safe haven currency. At the moment the AUD, USD and CHF are all within 5 percent of each other. So if I place my funds in USD and it ends up 0.75 USD then I have made a gain, place it in CHF and the AUD ends up at say 0.60 CHF then there was a bigger potential gain.

This is the what I am trying to determine.

[Rowdy100]

Yep some good points... its all a bit of a gamble though isn't it..?? The Aus treasury might say they want it at USd.75, but really there's not much they can do about it... I'm also very hopeful that the USD$ bounces back strongly, but whilst QE 3 continues on for "infinity" it's hugely unlikely that this can happen (???)

Still reckon property is a good investment for your Aussies $.... depsite everyone saying Australia is "overvalued"... it's not if you consider there's stil a housing shortgage and if you also look for places that offer high rental yield.. (longer-term) as opposed to trying to "flip" somethig for short-term capital gains...

[el jefe]

so fair enough... I;m now biased because I have an aussie passport... ???

What happens if the commoditites boom doesn't end anytime soon..??

5 times you've posted your disbelief that AUD could fall. So yes, if you're Aussie (you are) you're biased.

"What happens if the commoditites boom doesn't end anytime soon?"

You win until you lose.

[54321]

People may laugh, but there would be no harm with having some Indian Rupees in your basket of currencies.

Over the last few years it has fluctuated between about 70-90 Rupees to the £ and is currently about 85 to the £ (Not sure about the Australian $)

You can put funds it in Fixed term deposit accounts and earn about 9.5% interest per year, or invest in property (through a company) which is still rather cheap there. If you buy property, then its a handy and cheap place to pay a visit to, for a break, for a visa run or to escape the flooding in Thailand.....

[Naam]

SD = Singapore Dollar, seems well regarded.

SGD Singapore Dollar is not closely tied to USD as KHR1010 claims.

SD are pretty closely tied to the USD, as the Greenback goes, they tend to follow

take a look at the chart!

[Rowdy100]

FYI - Eljefe... I am an ex-pat Aussie for last decade... earning USD$... So that's a long way from bias my friend... perhaps it's more like an "interetsed party"..