Philippine-Style Talks Not Suited To Thai South Crisis

[webfact]

SOUTH CRISIS

Philippine-style talks 'not suited' to South

Kom Chad Luek, The Nation

File photo

Lack of <deleted>-style command to talk with, presence of drugs and other factors 'make autonomy deal unlikely'

BANGKOK: -- Thai security experts are reluctant to apply the "Philippine model" to Thailand's Muslim insurgency in the deep South, saying the two countries' separatist problems have their own peculiarities.

The experts told The Nation that key differences between Thailand and the Philippines included the countries' political systems and the fact that there seemed to be no real established leadership of the Thai insurgency.

After 15 years of continuous and all-encompassing negotiations, the Philippine government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (<deleted>) have announced a consensus on a framework for peace. The plan calls for the establishment of a 15-member Transition Commission, which will thrash out the details of the agreement and draft a law creating the "Bangsamoro" entity in the next two years.

The agreement combines respect for religious and cultural identity and a self-driven economic approach with the need to preserve a unified Philippines where the central government will keep hold of responsibility for security, defence, foreign policy, and monetary and citizenship affairs.

Panitan Wattanayagorn, an expert in international relations and national security, said Thailand's political environment would make creating a special, self-governing, semi-autono-mous zone extremely difficult. But first of all, Panitan said, negotiations must start between those who matter.

"It took the Philippines some 20 years, but even [in the beginning] the Philippine authorities knew whom to talk to," Panitan said. He added that whereas the <deleted> was already quite established when the Philippine talks began, the Thai insurgents seemed still to be in the stage of cementing their presence.

"In problems like this, the insurgents' first step is to make their presence felt, then they can mount pressure for real negotiations." Panitan pointed out that while the Thai government has agencies ready for possible, first-stage talks, it was not easy to pinpoint who on the insurgency side has the authority to represent the entire movement.

Colonel Thiranand Nanthakwan, a military expert, agreed, saying opening talks that might touch upon the creation of a special self-governing zone was "very, very sensitive in Thailand".

"The Philippine government knew whom they had to talk to. The insurgency there was a long-established organisation and they knew exactly what they wanted and the government knew exactly what the insurgents wanted. Here we have a combination of groups, of factors like drugs and parties wanting to take advantage," Thiranand said.

According to Thiranand, what has confounded Thai authorities is the insurgents' absolute lack of desire to be popular with the locals. Extreme use of intimidation and terror has been the norm, raising fears that the insurgents are functioning in cells independent of one another. Thiranand noted that the terrorist attacks were continuing in some areas while "surrenders" were taking place elsewhere in the region.

Meanwhile, a senior Thai military source said that not only were Thai authorities monitoring the Philippine model with interest, but the Thai insurgents must also be doing the same thing.

Echoing Panitan and Thiranand, the source said the chances of granting semi-autonomy were slim, because "we are still not convinced the problem will end there".

-- The Nation 2012-10-10

[WilliaminBKK]

The Philippines are you serious, they have done such a poor job not only with their Christian population but the Muslim Provinces are amongst the poorest in the country, they've created so many problems by isolating the Muslim population a mass exodus of the female population to move abroad is beyond belief.

[Thai at Heart]

Lack of <deleted>-style command to talk with, presence of drugs and other factors 'make autonomy deal unlikely'

A yes, the <deleted> terrorist group. I can see an American Pie moment in trying to negotiate with this bunch.

[jerrysteve]

I certainley wouldn't give the Experts here any salt until they are willing to send their sons into battle. Then they might have something worthy to say.

and of course it was the experts which deveolope all the political schemes that have blown up in their faces...

[F430murci]

Duh on the title, but I am all in for the MILFs.

[Songhua]

Duh on the title, but I am all in for the MILFs.

I only read as far as '<deleted>'. Then I Googled it.

[asiawatcher]

Mothers I'd like to ... yep that is about the attitude of the South separatists. Bunch of mutho's ... and wouldn't I like to reciprocate by popping a cap in yo ass boys.

[hellodolly]

Negotiations with Terrorists is always hard. Particularly here i Thailand. The Muslim Terrorists look at the red shirt terrorists and think well if it worked for them it can work for us. The problem being the red shirt Terrorists were well funded and had one leader.

Where as the Islamic terrorists are not that well funded and basically have different unconnected gangs. Much like the street gangs in L A.

[Sayonarax]

The Philippines are you serious, they have done such a poor job not only with their Christian population but the Muslim Provinces are amongst the poorest in the country, they've created so many problems by isolating the Muslim population a mass exodus of the female population to move abroad is beyond belief.

Says the guy flying an imperial flag.

[noitom]

It looks like they will eventually an independently governed zone. Thais are unlikely to ever be able to negotiate.

[Thai at Heart]

The whole problem with this idea is that virtually the entire structure of government in Thailand is completely Bangkok centric anyway, under the supposed guise of one Thai people, with one Thainess.

There is no way for the structure of an autonomous region to even remotely fit into this ideology. Not that I am saying they should countenance an autonomous region anyway. That really is a complicated issue, and would logically raise the issue, if they can have it, why not say Chiangmai or Udon?

[WilliaminBKK]

The Philippines are you serious, they have done such a poor job not only with their Christian population but the Muslim Provinces are amongst the poorest in the country, they've created so many problems by isolating the Muslim population a mass exodus of the female population to move abroad is beyond belief.

Says the guy flying an imperial flag.

Imperial flag ? let google become your friend

[seminomadic]

"He added that whereas the <deleted> was already quite established when the Philippine talks began, the Thai insurgents seemed still to be in the stage of cementing their presence."

That's great. So the TH authorities will wait for these as5holes to bomb and terrorize Buddhists and Muslims alike for a few more years so that they can properly congeal as an entity, then it'll be easier to sit down with them.

Way to motivate them to keep doing what they're doing, making public statements like that.

Brace for the future.

[phetaroi]

The title of the OP is laughable. "Philippine-style talks not suited tot he South".

What is?

It goes on and on and on and on...longer than the Energizer Bunny.

And look at that foolish picture. How many photos over the last decade have there been of police investigating each bombing or shooting or whatever. Doesn't matter. There's no real improvement in th situation.

Let's face it -- the Thai government, no matter which one of the many it is, is a total failure on this issue. Incompetent. Pathetic. In fact, when they do anything about it, it usually makes it worse.

[lemonjelly]

does this terrorist group know what <deleted> means.........