BURNING ISSUE

Pheu Thai wary of another defeat in capital

Avudh Panananda

The Nation

BANGKOK: -- Fear of defeat might be a plausible explanation as to why the Pheu Thai Party has yet to name its candidate for Bangkok governor, though the party's bigwigs are talking as if they've already snatched the job from incumbent Democrat Sukhumbhand Paribatra.

However, according to government insiders, Pheu Thai's secretary-general Phumtham Wechayachai is at his wits' end on how to map out a winning formula for the race.

Initially, the name of the Pheu Thai candidate was to be released last month, then it was postponed to around Christmas Day, and now the party says the deadline is January 10.

The problem is not that there are so many people vying for the job or even that there is infighting, but the undeniable fact that the party that rules the country has a slim chance of winning the top Bangkok post.

To put up a credible fight despite the odds, Pheu Thai needs a candidate to wow the voters. However, no astute politician will be willing to become a dead man walking just to maintain the party's reputation.

Of course, Pheu Thai is immensely popular but Bangkok voters are also known for their fickleness.

Of the 15 governors the capital has had since 1973, eight were appointed by the central government under various excuses, three were elected under the Democrat Party banner, and four won on independent tickets.

Pheu Thai, in its previous life as Thai Rak Thai, first joined the race in 2000 with Sudarat Keyuraphan as its candidate, but suffered a shattering defeat.

It is noteworthy that Sudarat lost to independent candidate Samak Sundaravej by 1 million versus 500,000 votes.

Reeling from Sudarat's defeat, then-prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra decided to keep his party out of the race in 2004 - when he was at the height of power and popularity.

The People Power Party, a reincarnation of Thai Rak Thai, failed to break the curse in 2008, when its candidate Prapat Chongsanguan lost to Democrat Apirak Kosayodhin by about 900,000-500,000. Then in the last race, Pheu Thai candidate Yuranan Pamonmontri lost to Sukhumbhand by 900,000-600,000.

To emerge victorious in the next race, the Pheu Thai candidate would need to win at least double the number of votes won by Sudarat, Prapat and Yuranan.

But that will not be an easy task. The reasons are:

1. The populist policies championed by Thaksin over the past decade were never designed for Bangkok voters. The former PM has probably realised this, which is why he is being so curiously quiet about ousting Sukhumbhand.

The tax break offered to first-car owners might be the only populist scheme designed for Bangkok salarymen, though records show that factory workers - mostly migrants from upcountry - were the main beneficiaries of this scheme.

2. One of the most inconvenient truths is that many Bangkok voters, especially the middle class in the central business district, are not too happy about the rise in the minimum wage because it has made domestic help more expensive.

3. Most voters living or working in downtown Bangkok still have bad memories about the 2010 red-shirt protest and subsequent crackdown.

4. Virtually all red-shirt leaders are unwilling to campaign against Sukhumbhand because, after all, he helped make their extended rally possible.

-- The Nation 2012-12-18

Perhaps a maximum retail-price for rice, of 10B per-kg, might appeal to the ordinary voters, or a universal maximum-wage of 200B/day to satisfy the employers, might swing the day for PTP ?

Perhaps increasing car-tax & abolishing all car-subsidies might help reduce traffic-congestion & pollution in the capital ?

Or an increase in corporate-tax (to say 30% ?) to finance the building of the new Sky-Train routes, eagerly anticipated (or is it long-awaited ?), and some firm-action on the high-speed rail-network promised for 2015 ?

I know, why not impose a 30B/visit charge, for going to the hospital, and spending the money on giving proper employment-contracts to the nurses ?

They must be eagerly anticipating the phone-call from Dubai, with the 'Big Boss's final instructions advice, to solve their dilemma ?

Edited December 18, 201213 yr by Ricardo

Bottom line - Pheu Thai cannot relate to the rank and file Bangkok educated and elites. It will be difficult to wage a viable campaign this late in the game.

The winning formula, hmmmm.

Bangkok is the stronghold of the elite class and it would seem unlikely that the democrats would/could lose an election there. Are you aware that you must be from Bangkok in order to be able to vote there?

Given the ineffectiveness and inability of the Democrats to market themselves properly, they may not lose in BKK this time, but it would not surprise me if they did next time unless they buck there ideas up. They have been far to complacent and lackadaisical in the past.

Given that this is about voters living in Bangkok being able to cast their vote for a BKK governor, national politics should be much less important than local politics. Having said that I can only (very naively) conclude with 'so what about Pheu Thai or Democrats. What is their program to keep (make?) Bangkok a pleasant, livable city?

Its quite clear most educated people live in Bangkok they would not fall for the lies and tricks of the Reds.

About you have to be from Bangkok, this is not true you have to be registered there. Its as easy as that.Maybe the reds can stage a mass immigration of farmers into BKK and then register them there. Then they might win.

Given that this is about voters living in Bangkok being able to cast their vote for a BKK governor, national politics should be much less important than local politics. Having said that I can only (very naively) conclude with 'so what about Pheu Thai or Democrats. What is their program to keep (make?) Bangkok a pleasant, livable city?

I doubt its that simple but you are right it should be.

They forgot one additional reason......

5. Inability to use vote buying which works so well in the provinces

Bangkok is the stronghold of the elite class and it would seem unlikely that the democrats would/could lose an election there. Are you aware that you must be from Bangkok in order to be able to vote there?

You have to be registered in Bangkok to vote here. Do you think that all of Thailand should be able to vote for the Bangkok governor?

Bottom line, Bangkok is a different Thailand where the urban middle class are not easily hoodwinked by populist promises, BS and vote buying, and it's their money that is being used they look at their leaders in a completely different light (re: corruption). In the next generation Thailand will be more like Bangkok and Peua Thai will be confined to the dustbin of history, as it should - since it's not a real party of ideology, it's a family business. They fail to realise their popularity is a false one, built on money, and they are unlikely to win over Bangkok, it's better that way, you can't dominate everything.

you have to laugh at them trying to figure out why they cant win in Bangkok, do you think that bringing in all the ignorant farmers to the city then shutting it down, killing people, blockading the airport. burning down central and stopping people from working has anything to do with it. What a pack of idiots, just because they can bribe uneducated idiots to vote for them doesnt mean they are liked. The sooner these idiots are removed from power the better for the country, maybe we will get some people that want to see Thailand succeed in becoming a great country not some political toy for the rich boss man(wanted criminal) and his family.