ANALYSIS

Govt having second thoughts on charter referendum

Somroutai Sapsomboon,

Khanittha Thepphajorn

The Nation on Sunday

BANGKOK: -- The Pheu Thai-led coalition says it is not back-pedalling, but its latest moves indicate that it is very worried about the referendum, which it had so boldly announced earlier.

Last week, Pheu Thai and its coalition partners resolved to hold a public referendum before going ahead with the third reading of the charter amendment bill in Parliament. At that time, the coalition leaders were confident of victory, and even though they had been told about the required voter turnout, they were sure that more than half the eligible voters would show up. That confidence seems to be wavering now that Democrat Party leader has started calling on the public to join forces and stand against the referendum.

The diffidence was apparent at the weekly Cabinet meeting on Tuesday. Initially, it was expected that the Cabinet would resolve to announce the referendum, but instead it decided to set up a new panel to work out how the plebiscite should be held and how public debates on the amendment should be set up. This move is seen as an effort to buy time.

Deputy Prime Minister Chalerm Yoobamrung was very straightforward when he said: "In 2013, there will be 49 million eligible voters so the voter turnout must be at least 25 million to make the referendum valid. So, it will be difficult to clear this hurdle. We must analyse politics based on truth, not on daydreams."

He added that the easiest thing for the government would be to only amend certain articles of the charter instead of rewriting the entire Constitution. In fact, he said, he had already prepared nine issues on which the charter should be amended.

Though Chalerm did not attend the weekly Cabinet meeting on grounds that he was ill, many believe that he was expressing his dissatisfaction at the government's plan to hold a public referendum. Obviously, his dissatisfaction has affected the government's decision.

Now all eyes are on what the government does in relation to the referendum.

Of course, the most convenient thing would be to buy time. Earlier, the government said the plebiscite would be held in March or April so the bill can go through the final reading before the parliamentary session expires on April 21. However, the new working committee will be spending more than a month studying the issue, which is a clear indication that the government is not rushing to carry out the referendum as its stability might be affected.

"If the amendment is rejected in the referendum, the government's stability will be definitely affected. Some people will demand that the government take responsibility. Now, it is not an issue because the referendum has not yet happened. But when it is done, some might ask why Bt2 billion was wasted when the government knew that it would fail? The government would be forced to take responsibility," Chalerm had warned earlier.

Though the law does not require the government to take responsibility, it will need to step up because the referendum could harm the coalition politically. Senate Speaker Nikom Wairatpanich voiced concern on the same point, but said the government could "get" voters to cast their ballot because that was not prohibited.

Another option for the government is to go for public consultation rather than a referendum. This way, the voter turnout will not matter, but the government may not go for this option because it would only be a waste of time and effort.

The third option is for the government to rescind its plan to hold a referendum and forget about pushing the bill through the third reading in order to pave the way for setting up a constitution drafting assembly. Instead, the government could draft a new amendment bill to only change certain articles. In fact, several veteran politicians believe that this would be the best way to maintain the government's stability.

However, former PM Thaksin Shinawatra might disagree, because it will not give the government an excuse to erase Article 309. For Thaksin, Article 309 - which allows legal action to be taken against him - needs to be abolished in order to pave the way for reconciliation.

Besides, several landmines seem to be waiting to explode on the path to a referendum. The biggest is the one that requires a "yes" from at least half of the eligible voters to validate the requirement. Some 15.7 million people voted for the Pheu Thai Party in the last election, and if supporters of other coalition partners are added to this number, the government might be able to garner 18 million voters. However, it will be almost impossible for it to solicit another 7 million votes, which would be required for the referendum to go through.

Another issue waiting to explode is that the government will be required to provide information on the charter amendment for people to consider before voting on the referendum. If the government's opponents believe that the information provided is biased, they can appeal to the Supreme Administrative Court to terminate the referendum.

Of course, the final decision on the referendum lies in the hands of that one person who is pulling the strings from behind the scenes, though hopefully he will make the safest choice - one that allows this government to stay in power as long as possible.

-- The Nation 2012-12-23

Senate Speaker Nikom Wairatpanich voiced concern on the same point, but said the government could "get" voters to cast their ballot because that was not prohibited.

Interesting way to describe 500 Baht.

But didn't the majority of the Thai people vote for PTP because they were going to rewrite the constitution? Surely they shouldn't have any problem getting a referendum passed.

Sent from my HTC phone.

However, former PM Thaksin Shinawatra might disagree, because it will not give the government an excuse to erase Article 309. For Thaksin, Article 309 - which allows legal action to be taken against him - needs to be abolished in order to pave the way for reconciliation.

There before our very eyes is the problem the renegade bail jumping convicted criminal Thaksin. He has instructed the P.T.P. to act in his and only his own interests.

Any impediment to his ultimate aims must be removed and to hell with what the Thai people want thus the fear of a referendum is paramount in Thaksins mind as his grand plan would be destroyed.

Interesting to note that Chalerm is ill again no doubt a reaction to his ear medicine, however it seems as if Chalerm is the weakest point in the whitewash campaign, perhaps there are power struggles within the various factions that make up this current maladministration.

The current maladministration claims to represent the people. If that is the case why is there any opposition to the referendum concerning the charter rewrite agenda ?

The truth of the matter is that the current maladministration knows full well that the voter turnout and the ensuring result would scuttle their plans to whitewash Thaksin..

whybother post # 3 hit the nail squarely on the head.

But didn't the majority of the Thai people vote for PTP because they were going to rewrite the constitution? Surely they shouldn't have any problem getting a referendum passed.

The dreams of Thaksin and his puppets are fast turning into nightmares for them. Thus now any course of action to ensure the whitewashing of the renegade bail jumping criminal must be employed so as the rewards on offer from Thaksin, financial and power wise can be collected,however payday is not going to be for a long time yet if in fact payday ever arrives.

Edited December 23, 201213 yr by siampolee

I guess the government will have to start having mobile cabinet meetings in Dubai.

Govt having second thoughts on charter referendum

They've had all kinds of thoughts--none of them good.

Govt having second thoughts on charter referendum

They've had all kinds of thoughts--none of them good.

You are far too generous. The stream of contradictory comments coming out over a referendum shows they don't think at all but rather say the first thing that comes into their heads. Farcical but then again that's par for the course with PT.

Perhaps PTP are worried about their silent supporters who do not wish to see him return. I'm sure there are many. Currently the system is 'stable' without Thaksin on the scene. The situation could explode upon his return if he is granted amnesty. And there is no guarantee another coup will not ensue. That would be bad for the government and the people alike.

Perhaps PTP are worried about their silent supporters who do not wish to see him return. I'm sure there are many. Currently the system is 'stable' without Thaksin on the scene. The situation could explode upon his return if he is granted amnesty. And there is no guarantee another coup will not ensue. That would be bad for the government and the people alike.

Quite correct the PT got only 48% of the vote and I am quite sure many of them thought they were voting for Yingluck.

From the man himself (Chalerm) we hear that as well as stopping drug abuse and tourist scams and now working on solving the problem in the deep south he has a solution to the charter problem.

"In fact, he said, he had already prepared nine issues on which the charter should be amended."

The man is a living marvel. Does any one know what brand of ear medicine he takes?

But didn't the majority of the Thai people vote for PTP because they were going to rewrite the constitution? Surely they shouldn't have any problem getting a referendum passed.

Sent from my HTC phone.

15m people voted for PTP. They need 25m votes.

But didn't the majority of the Thai people vote for PTP because they were going to rewrite the constitution? Surely they shouldn't have any problem getting a referendum passed.

Sent from my HTC phone.

15m people voted for PTP. They need 25m votes.

They don't need 25m Yes votes.

But, once again, having the support of a huge majority of Thais, they shouldn't have any problems.

They've been saying how much support they have since they got elected, but as soon as it might get put to the test, they start to shy away from it.

But didn't the majority of the Thai people vote for PTP because they were going to rewrite the constitution? Surely they shouldn't have any problem getting a referendum passed.

Sent from my HTC phone.

15m people voted for PTP. They need 25m votes.

They don't need 25m Yes votes.

But, once again, having the support of a huge majority of Thais, they shouldn't have any problems.

They've been saying how much support they have since they got elected, but as soon as it might get put to the test, they start to shy away from it.

I think the problem is that popularity for PTP and Yingluck, which undeniably exists, doesn't necessarily translate into popularity for bringing back Thaksin and whitewashing him of all crimes. The trick will be whether PTP can successfully sell the lie that this constitution rewrite has nothing do with Thaksin. At the moment they seem to be failing, hence all the dithering.

Edited December 23, 201213 yr by rixalex

But didn't the majority of the Thai people vote for PTP because they were going to rewrite the constitution? Surely they shouldn't have any problem getting a referendum passed.

Sent from my HTC phone.

It's a rhetorical majority, the same used to justify Red Shirt violence.

As soon as the theory is pressed for validation they scurry away like cockroaches.

But didn't the majority of the Thai people vote for PTP because they were going to rewrite the constitution? Surely they shouldn't have any problem getting a referendum passed.

Sent from my HTC phone.

I thought You needed 25 million to turn out for the referendum to be valid. A majority vote then

counts. PT got nowhere near that number of votes so if Dems and others opposed convince their supporters not to show up and vote then the 25 million threshold will not be met and the referendum fails. This article suggests you need 22.5 million voting yes. Either way PT ain't got that level of support.

Edited December 23, 201213 yr by Bluespunk

Govt having second thoughts on charter referendum

The government? The Pheu Thai led government? The 'Thaksin thinks, Pheu Thai acts" led government?

Edited December 23, 201213 yr by rubl

PT had 47%

PT had 47%

2011-07-03 election results:

Registered electorate: 46,904,823

Total votes cast, both valid/invalid*: 35,469,811 (75.62%) (invalid includes 'no vote')

Pheu Thai party: 15,744,190 votes (44.38% of cast, 33.57% of regist.)

Democrat party: 11,433,762 votes (32.24% of cast, 24.38% of regist.)

For a general election it is mandatory (by law) to vote or loose the right to vote for five years. For the referendum there is no legal requirement to go vote.

This is a tricky subject for Thaksin and his cronies. Despite their constant, wild proclamations that they command the support of the overwhelming majority of Thai people, they privately realize that they have never received a majority of the popular vote in any election, and in 2007 actually came in second place. Last election they got close only because the yellow shirts split from the Dems and boycotted, lowered the total number of votes several million compared with 2007, something unlikely to happen again. Additionally most of their support is on the local level, people turning out for their traditional feudal overlords who they vote for regardless of party. These people might not turn out in sufficient numbers for a vote just to pardon Thaksin. Their traditional road to victory, getting under 50% but still the highest amount do to splitting the opposition vote, won't work for this. All of this makes them being able to get sufficient turnout, and a MAJORITY of the vote, rather than their traditional plurality, extremely risky.

PT had 47%

That's old and irrelevant and, it's about 100th time you've posted that, so it's trolling as well.

Edited December 23, 201213 yr by whybother

PT had 47%

That's old and irrelevant and, it's about 100th time you've posted that, so it's trolling as well.

So it has come to this.The usual suspects now say stating the simple truth is "trolling".No wonder so many of the better educated members have simply given up on the forum.

Parties Constituency Proportional TOTAL Votes % Seats Votes % Seats Seats % Pheu Thai 204 15,744,190 48.41 61 265 53.0% Democrat 115 11,433,762 35.15 44 159 31.8% Bhumjaithai 29 1,281,577 3.94 5 34 6.8% Chartthaipattana 15 906,656 2.79 4 19 3.8% Chart Pattana Puea Pandin 5 494,894 1.52 2 7 1.4% Phalang Chon 6 178,110 0.55 1 7 1.4% Rak Thailand 0 998,603 3.07 4 4 0.8% Matubhum 1 251,702 0.77 1 2 0.4% Rak Santi 0 284,132 0.87 1 1 0.2% Mahachon 0 133,772 0.41 1 1 0.2% New Democracy 0 125,784 0.39 1 1 0.2% Other Parties 0 692,322 2.13 0 0 0.0% Valid Votes 375 32,525,504 125 500 100% None of the Above 1,419,088 4.03% 958,052 2.72% Invalid Votes 2,039,694 5.79% 1,726,051 4.90% Total Turnouts Abstention Total Electors Source: Election of Members of House of Representatives B.E.2554

I don't think they particularly care about changing the constitution. I think they're just doing what they can to keep people looking the wrong way while they loot the treasury. They'll continue to do that as long as they can till the majority of the people beg the army to throw them out again.

But didn't the majority of the Thai people vote for PTP because they were going to rewrite the constitution? Surely they shouldn't have any problem getting a referendum passed.

Sent from my HTC phone.

15m people voted for PTP. They need 25m votes.

They don't need 25m Yes votes.

But, once again, having the support of a huge majority of Thais, they shouldn't have any problems.

They've been saying how much support they have since they got elected, but as soon as it might get put to the test, they start to shy away from it.

I think the problem is that popularity for PTP and Yingluck, which undeniably exists, doesn't necessarily translate into popularity for bringing back Thaksin and whitewashing him of all crimes. The trick will be whether PTP can successfully sell the lie that this constitution rewrite has nothing do with Thaksin. At the moment they seem to be failing, hence all the dithering.

You have it in one.

So it has come to this.The usual suspects now say stating the simple truth is "trolling".No wonder so many of the better educated members have simply given up on the forum.

When it is off topic and irrelevant and about the 100th time he has posted "PT had 47%" and only "PT had 47%" then, Yes, it is clearly trolling.

Re: Post No 20

The 48.4% excludes invalid votes (meaning it doesn't include the total who voted). Rubi's figure is pretty accurate when expressing PT's vote as a percentage of all votes.

So, both the 47% & 48.4% are inaccurate, whether trolling or just manipulating the figures.

Edited December 23, 201213 yr by khunken

So it has come to this.The usual suspects now say stating the simple truth is "trolling".No wonder so many of the better educated members have simply given up on the forum.

If by better educated members you mean members who share my red sympathies, and i suspect you do, i think you'll find a good number of them haven't "given up on the forum", they have rather been "shown the door".

So it has come to this.The usual suspects now say stating the simple truth is "trolling".No wonder so many of the better educated members have simply given up on the forum.

When it is off topic and irrelevant and about the 100th time he has posted "PT had 47%" and only "PT had 47%" then, Yes, it is clearly trolling.

If there was a prohibition on members making the same point over and over again to the extreme tedium of all, there would be a lot fewer posts.Prolific posters, mostly trolls if your strange definition made any sense, should perhaps undertake some reflection on this.

So it has come to this.The usual suspects now say stating the simple truth is "trolling".No wonder so many of the better educated members have simply given up on the forum.

When it is off topic and irrelevant and about the 100th time he has posted "PT had 47%" and only "PT had 47%" then, Yes, it is clearly trolling.

If there was a prohibition on members making the same point over and over again to the extreme tedium of all, there would be a lot fewer posts.Prolific posters, mostly trolls if your strange definition made any sense, should perhaps undertake some reflection on this.

Maybe you should look up "off topic" and "irrelevant".

Get back to the topic--which is not who is the biggest repetitive troll.

Keep your posts relevant to the OP.

So it has come to this.The usual suspects now say stating the simple truth is "trolling".No wonder so many of the better educated members have simply given up on the forum.

When it is off topic and irrelevant and about the 100th time he has posted "PT had 47%" and only "PT had 47%" then, Yes, it is clearly trolling.

If there was a prohibition on members making the same point over and over again to the extreme tedium of all, there would be a lot fewer posts.Prolific posters, mostly trolls if your strange definition made any sense, should perhaps undertake some reflection on this.

Maybe you should look up "off topic" and "irrelevant".

Please refer to my earlier post.

For the referendum there is no legal requirement to go vote.

That's not what PT claimed a few days ago.