GBP to THB Exchange Rate

[draftvader]

Quite shocking really!

is the rubbish you spread!

I don't know which part you think is rubbish, but this might help.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Algorithmic_trading

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304065704577426500918047624.html

http://www.ted.com/talks/kevin_slavin_how_algorithms_shape_our_world.html

[15Peter20]

I have a question for those with the technical knowledge. On a minute-to-minute basis, how is the THB-GBP exchange rate arrived at? What calculations take place, where and by who/what in order to change the rate from say 44.67 to 44.54 in the space of an hour?

I know the answer may be very complex, so even a general overview would be useful.

Thanks

15Peter

I don't actually know the answer in detail, but it is linked into how stock from the country is being traded (i.e. which direction, currencies, etc). What I do know is that programmers that are FAR more advanced than me (and of the type I have had the pleasure to work with) are working on predictive trading algorithms as a lot of trade is now automated, within certain parameters, to allow financial organisations to make the most from their trades. The problem comes down to speed of communication. At present they are having issues with, for example, a trader in Sydney seeing a price on a Japanese stock, making a purchase decision (single button press) and the actual price by the time that command is communicated to the relevant stock market. Being that the speed of the trading machines are some of the highest in the world often trade from within the trading region (in our example, Beijing would be within the trading region) will have moved that price significantly by the time the SYD-TOKYO-SYD communication has taken place. This can destroy any gains on a deal within the time it takes to complete! Quite shocking really!

----EDIT----

Found it. Bayes' theorem. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes%27_theorem

Haven't had a chance to read it through again, but this theorem was, basically, ignored in his lifetime. Now it is used for all sorts of predictions including financial, weather patterns, drug testing, population growth/distribution and MANY more. More alarming is that this was his one and only mathematical theorem!!!

Timestamp the button click?

This would require the markets to work backwards.

I don't get it. When a person clicks the button they want the rate that they see at the time when they click the button, right? Timestamp the button click and the rate is tied to the timestamp for all eternity, allowing the buyer to get the rate he wanted however long it takes the trade to be resolved. What am I missing?

[Naam]

I have a question for those with the technical knowledge. On a minute-to-minute basis, how is the THB-GBP exchange rate arrived at? What calculations take place, where and by who/what in order to change the rate from say 44.67 to 44.54 in the space of an hour?

I know the answer may be very complex, so even a general overview would be useful.

Thanks

15Peter

the answer is complex but the basics are quite simple Peter.

1. currencies are traded like any commodity and the price is based on offer and demand.

2. some (major) currencies are traded directly with each other, the exchange rate of other currencies depend on how the "pair" currencies are trading to which they are linked or have been trading.

explanation "2":

assuming the Angolan Kwanza traded last at 150 vs Pound Sterling when GBP/USD traded at 1.50 it means that it took 100 Kwanza to buy one US-Dollar. if the US-Dollar rises vs the Pound from 1.50 to 1.35 and there is no trading of Pounds or Dollars vs Kwanzas then it takes 111 Kwanzas (~11% more) to buy one US-Dollar.

those who might find a flaw that GBP fell 10% vs USD but it takes 11% more Kwanza to buy USD are advised to check their percentage calculation (down/up respectively up/down) which causes the difference.

note: currencies are traded around the clock on "Globex" six days a week. some interbank trading of multinationals in major currencies is virtually uninterrupted 24/7.

[smedly]

currencies work the same way as stocks - increased buying or selling due to market sentiment, in the UK bad economic news will apply selling pressure to the pound driving it down - it can be supported by the BOI or government by buying sterling and forcing it up creating confidence - a bit like a company buying back it's own shares, equally printing money is like issueing more shares which dilutes the value pushing it down - not exactly but similar

[draftvader]

I have a question for those with the technical knowledge. On a minute-to-minute basis, how is the THB-GBP exchange rate arrived at? What calculations take place, where and by who/what in order to change the rate from say 44.67 to 44.54 in the space of an hour?

I know the answer may be very complex, so even a general overview would be useful.

Thanks

15Peter

the answer is complex but the basics are quite simple Peter.

1. currencies are traded like any commodity and the price is based on offer and demand.

2. some (major) currencies are traded directly with each other, the exchange rate of other currencies depend on how the "pair" currencies are trading to which they are linked or have been trading.

explanation "2":

assuming the Angolan Kwanza traded last at 150 vs Pound Sterling when GBP/USD traded at 1.50 it means that it took 100 Kwanza to buy one US-Dollar. if the US-Dollar rises vs the Pound from 1.50 to 1.35 and there is no trading of Pounds or Dollars vs Kwanzas then it takes 111 Kwanzas (~11% more) to buy one US-Dollar.

those who might find a flaw that GBP fell 10% vs USD but it takes 11% more Kwanza to buy USD are advised to check their percentage calculation (down/up respectively up/down) which causes the difference.

note: currencies are traded around the clock on "Globex" six days a week. some interbank trading of multinationals in major currencies is virtually uninterrupted 24/7.

http://www.dummies.com/how-to/content/what-affects-currency-rates.html

http://www.investorwords.com/tips/1298/the-relationship-between-the-stock-market-and-forex-markets.html

Still not sure why I spread rubbish (though I didn't tie the sacks very well on Saturday morning...are you my dustman?)

[Denizen]

I have a question for those with the technical knowledge. On a minute-to-minute basis, how is the THB-GBP exchange rate arrived at? What calculations take place, where and by who/what in order to change the rate from say 44.67 to 44.54 in the space of an hour?

I know the answer may be very complex, so even a general overview would be useful.

Thanks

15Peter

the answer is complex but the basics are quite simple Peter.

1. currencies are traded like any commodity and the price is based on offer and demand.

2. some (major) currencies are traded directly with each other, the exchange rate of other currencies depend on how the "pair" currencies are trading to which they are linked or have been trading.

explanation "2":

assuming the Angolan Kwanza traded last at 150 vs Pound Sterling when GBP/USD traded at 1.50 it means that it took 100 Kwanza to buy one US-Dollar. if the US-Dollar rises vs the Pound from 1.50 to 1.35 and there is no trading of Pounds or Dollars vs Kwanzas then it takes 111 Kwanzas (~11% more) to buy one US-Dollar.

those who might find a flaw that GBP fell 10% vs USD but it takes 11% more Kwanza to buy USD are advised to check their percentage calculation (down/up respectively up/down) which causes the difference.

note: currencies are traded around the clock on "Globex" six days a week. some interbank trading of multinationals in major currencies is virtually uninterrupted 24/7.

http://www.dummies.com/how-to/content/what-affects-currency-rates.html

http://www.investorwords.com/tips/1298/the-relationship-between-the-stock-market-and-forex-markets.html

Still not sure why I spread rubbish (though I didn't tie the sacks very well on Saturday morning...are you my dustman?)

Perhaps you are long in that commodity.

[yoshiwara]

On a minute-to-minute basis prices for GBPTHB will generally take a random walk.

Why the questioner wants to know the immediate one-minute future is an odd question, unless one is an FX trader with algorythmic software and those constantly have to be modified.

A practicable question would resolve around currency futures and whether to commit capital to those particularly if one was say going to buy a 10 million baht apartment and expecting to complete in say 3-6 months.

[15Peter20]

My apologies for asking the wrong question and heartfelt thanks for supplying me with a more appropriate one. With that in mind, I have a question:

I will be buying a 10 million baht apartment with completion in about 3-6 months. Should I commit capital to currency futures in order to facilitate this?

Thanks for your much anticipated answer.

[yoshiwara]

My apologies for asking the wrong question and heartfelt thanks for supplying me with a more appropriate one. With that in mind, I have a question:

I will be buying a 10 million baht apartment with completion in about 3-6 months. Should I commit capital to currency futures in order to facilitate this?

Thanks for your much anticipated answer.

Apologies but my example is flawed because if you were buying a property with foreign ownership then you would be required to transfer the funds in foreign currency, so a future would not be appropriate. A hedge might be ie to protect yourself against a wild drop in sterling. eg 5% on 200,000 = 10,000. You might be better advised to shorten the period between offer and transfer of funds and hope that even here the sale is not affected by a period of heightened volatility. In addition transfer 10% more in funds than is actually required to protect against such.

[Denizen]

My apologies for asking the wrong question and heartfelt thanks for supplying me with a more appropriate one. With that in mind, I have a question:

I will be buying a 10 million baht apartment with completion in about 3-6 months. Should I commit capital to currency futures in order to facilitate this?

Thanks for your much anticipated answer.

Apologies but my example is flawed because if you were buying a property with foreign ownership then you would be required to transfer the funds in foreign currency, so a future would not be appropriate. A hedge might be ie to protect yourself against a wild drop in sterling. eg 5% on 200,000 = 10,000. You might be better advised to shorten the period between offer and transfer of funds and hope that even here the sale is not affected by a period of heightened volatility. In addition transfer 10% more in funds than is actually required to protect against such.

I would recommend you transfer the funds as GBP and have the Thai bank convert. Thai banks give better conversion rates than banks in Western countries and their fees are lower.

[nong38]

Does anyone have the address of the Thai "Ministry of Truth"?

Yes the address is lodged with the British Ministry of Funny Walks.

Do they have a branch in Bangkok?

[Denizen]

Does anyone have the address of the Thai "Ministry of Truth"?

Yes the address is lodged with the British Ministry of Funny Walks.

Do they have a branch in Bangkok?

Yes. The department head hangs out at cheap charlies 7 days a week between the hours of 10:00 AM and 02 AM next day. He's an old obese guy with shorts, hairy legs and a union jack T shirt. He's the guy who walks funny.

Edited March 4, 2013 by Denizen

[fletchsmile]

My apologies for asking the wrong question and heartfelt thanks for supplying me with a more appropriate one. With that in mind, I have a question:

I will be buying a 10 million baht apartment with completion in about 3-6 months. Should I commit capital to currency futures in order to facilitate this?

Thanks for your much anticipated answer.

Apologies but my example is flawed because if you were buying a property with foreign ownership then you would be required to transfer the funds in foreign currency, so a future would not be appropriate. A hedge might be ie to protect yourself against a wild drop in sterling. eg 5% on 200,000 = 10,000. You might be better advised to shorten the period between offer and transfer of funds and hope that even here the sale is not affected by a period of heightened volatility. In addition transfer 10% more in funds than is actually required to protect against such.

I think you're getting a little too fancy for your own limited knowledge in your own examples, and in trying to put down other posters.

The result being you're just showing your own lack of knowledge, by not being able to adequately answer and follow thru your own initial example.

I doubt you actually trade futures either, as someone who does would understand how they could indeed use futures as a reasonable hedge regardless of the whether the money has to be transferred in from abroad or not.

Someone who actually trades futures knows they can be bought as well as sold + someone actually trading futures also knows in the majority of cases buyers and sellers close-out/offset their positions by taking out an opposite position rather than letting them mature. So someone trading futures would know the net effect can then debited or credited to the trader's account at settlement date.

Hence if correctly structured the net gain or loss on the futures contracts largely offsets the movement and gain or loss in exchange rates on the underlying exposure of the condo purchase. i.e you don't need to take delivery of the opposite currency on a futures contract, and it's the profit and loss movements that count. So you don't have to worry that the foreign currency needs to be transferred in from overseas or not

Simply put: if you have foreign currency offshore waiting to transfer in, you could indeed take out a futures contract, then take out an opposite contract near maturity instead of letting it mature to close out. You then have the net gain or loss on your futures contracts, you then adjust the amount of foreign currency you transfer by adding or subtracting the profit or loss on the futures.

BTW In your example someone might also use currency options as well.

Moral of the story: play nice with other posters who know less than you do, as there's always someone who knows a little more than you do.

Edited March 4, 2013 by fletchsmile

[mccw]

I got 445,000 odd from a 10grand transfer just received.

Does anyone know a good branch to bank with for the rate negotiation in Chiang Mai? My current branch aren't accepting any negotiation at all. Bangkok bank or another if you have good experience.

Cheers

[chiang mai]

I got 445,000 odd from a 10grand transfer just received.

Does anyone know a good branch to bank with for the rate negotiation in Chiang Mai? My current branch aren't accepting any negotiation at all. Bangkok bank or another if you have good experience.

Cheers

Most bank Treasury Dept's will negotiate to a lesser or greater degree, based on the amount involved, I'm afraid there's unlikley to be any negotiation on GBP 10K, it's just the way things way things are currently.

[15Peter20]

My apologies for asking the wrong question and heartfelt thanks for supplying me with a more appropriate one. With that in mind, I have a question:

I will be buying a 10 million baht apartment with completion in about 3-6 months. Should I commit capital to currency futures in order to facilitate this?

Thanks for your much anticipated answer.

Apologies but my example is flawed because if you were buying a property with foreign ownership then you would be required to transfer the funds in foreign currency, so a future would not be appropriate. A hedge might be ie to protect yourself against a wild drop in sterling. eg 5% on 200,000 = 10,000. You might be better advised to shorten the period between offer and transfer of funds and hope that even here the sale is not affected by a period of heightened volatility. In addition transfer 10% more in funds than is actually required to protect against such.

I think you're getting a little too fancy for your own limited knowledge in your own examples, and in trying to put down other posters.

The result being you're just showing your own lack of knowledge, by not being able to adequately answer and follow thru your own initial example.

I doubt you actually trade futures either, as someone who does would understand how they could indeed use futures as a reasonable hedge regardless of the whether the money has to be transferred in from abroad or not.

Someone who actually trades futures knows they can be bought as well as sold + someone actually trading futures also knows in the majority of cases buyers and sellers close-out/offset their positions by taking out an opposite position rather than letting them mature. So someone trading futures would know the net effect can then debited or credited to the trader's account at settlement date.

Hence if correctly structured the net gain or loss on the futures contracts largely offsets the movement and gain or loss in exchange rates on the underlying exposure of the condo purchase. i.e you don't need to take delivery of the opposite currency on a futures contract, and it's the profit and loss movements that count. So you don't have to worry that the foreign currency needs to be transferred in from overseas or not

Simply put: if you have foreign currency offshore waiting to transfer in, you could indeed take out a futures contract, then take out an opposite contract near maturity instead of letting it mature to close out. You then have the net gain or loss on your futures contracts, you then adjust the amount of foreign currency you transfer by adding or subtracting the profit or loss on the futures.

BTW In your example someone might also use currency options as well.

Moral of the story: play nice with other posters who know less than you do, as there's always someone who knows a little more than you do.

I think we've just witnessed an FX-based verbal bitch-slap.

Whilst I find fletch's knowledge sexy on the surface, I would of course require a more general consensus on his prescription here before trying to figure out exactly what he's on about.

Thanks anyway fletch . You appear to be 'da man'.

[PCA]

My apologies for asking the wrong question and heartfelt thanks for supplying me with a more appropriate one. With that in mind, I have a question:

I will be buying a 10 million baht apartment with completion in about 3-6 months. Should I commit capital to currency futures in order to facilitate this?

Thanks for your much anticipated answer.

Apologies but my example is flawed because if you were buying a property with foreign ownership then you would be required to transfer the funds in foreign currency, so a future would not be appropriate. A hedge might be ie to protect yourself against a wild drop in sterling. eg 5% on 200,000 = 10,000. You might be better advised to shorten the period between offer and transfer of funds and hope that even here the sale is not affected by a period of heightened volatility. In addition transfer 10% more in funds than is actually required to protect against such.

I think you're getting a little too fancy for your own limited knowledge in your own examples, and in trying to put down other posters.

The result being you're just showing your own lack of knowledge, by not being able to adequately answer and follow thru your own initial example.

I doubt you actually trade futures either, as someone who does would understand how they could indeed use futures as a reasonable hedge regardless of the whether the money has to be transferred in from abroad or not.

Someone who actually trades futures knows they can be bought as well as sold + someone actually trading futures also knows in the majority of cases buyers and sellers close-out/offset their positions by taking out an opposite position rather than letting them mature. So someone trading futures would know the net effect can then debited or credited to the trader's account at settlement date.

Hence if correctly structured the net gain or loss on the futures contracts largely offsets the movement and gain or loss in exchange rates on the underlying exposure of the condo purchase. i.e you don't need to take delivery of the opposite currency on a futures contract, and it's the profit and loss movements that count. So you don't have to worry that the foreign currency needs to be transferred in from overseas or not

Simply put: if you have foreign currency offshore waiting to transfer in, you could indeed take out a futures contract, then take out an opposite contract near maturity instead of letting it mature to close out. You then have the net gain or loss on your futures contracts, you then adjust the amount of foreign currency you transfer by adding or subtracting the profit or loss on the futures.

BTW In your example someone might also use currency options as well.

Moral of the story: play nice with other posters who know less than you do, as there's always someone who knows a little more than you do.

All currency Futures are USD trades so there is no hedge for THB possible using such.

[15Peter20]

I got 445,000 odd from a 10grand transfer just received.

Does anyone know a good branch to bank with for the rate negotiation in Chiang Mai? My current branch aren't accepting any negotiation at all. Bangkok bank or another if you have good experience.

Cheers

I've done a few 25K transfers with bangkok bank and got from 0.02 to 0.05 above the TT rate. The thing is, it doesn't seem to be about 'haggling' or 'negotiating', it's more like what they feel like giving you based on the exact rate at the moment when the bank person has got the FX person (or whoever it is they call) on the phone.

I always ask for 0.04 so sometimes they give me less, sometimes more than what I ask for.

To be honest, when they ask me to 'confirm' the price they are offering, I always just say 'OK' but wonder what would happen if I said their offer wasn't good enough. I suspect the transaction would come to an abortive end.

Edited March 4, 2013 by 15Peter20

[chiang mai]

I got 445,000 odd from a 10grand transfer just received.

Does anyone know a good branch to bank with for the rate negotiation in Chiang Mai? My current branch aren't accepting any negotiation at all. Bangkok bank or another if you have good experience.

Cheers

I've done a few 25K transfers with bangkok bank and got from 0.02 to 0.05 above the TT rate. The thing is, it doesn't seem to be about 'haggling' or 'negotiating', it's more like what they feel like giving you based on the exact rate at the moment when the bank person has got the FX person (or whoever it is they call) on the phone.

I always ask for 0.04 so sometimes they give me less, sometimes more than what I ask for.

To be honest, when they ask me to 'confirm' the price they are offering, I always just say 'OK' but wonder what would happen if I said their offer wasn't good enough. I suspect the transaction would come to an abortive end.

No, the funds would remain in limbo until such time as you specified a rate you wanted and if that rate was not realised, then the money would sit in limbo - Thai/Asian banks are quite happy to hold your inbound currency without the conversion being made.

[15Peter20]

I got 445,000 odd from a 10grand transfer just received.

Does anyone know a good branch to bank with for the rate negotiation in Chiang Mai? My current branch aren't accepting any negotiation at all. Bangkok bank or another if you have good experience.

Cheers

I've done a few 25K transfers with bangkok bank and got from 0.02 to 0.05 above the TT rate. The thing is, it doesn't seem to be about 'haggling' or 'negotiating', it's more like what they feel like giving you based on the exact rate at the moment when the bank person has got the FX person (or whoever it is they call) on the phone.

I always ask for 0.04 so sometimes they give me less, sometimes more than what I ask for.

To be honest, when they ask me to 'confirm' the price they are offering, I always just say 'OK' but wonder what would happen if I said their offer wasn't good enough. I suspect the transaction would come to an abortive end.

No, the funds would remain in limbo until such time as you specified a rate you wanted and if that rate was not realised, then the money would sit in limbo - Thai/Asian banks are quite happy to hold your inbound currency without the conversion being made.

Thanks for the info. I suspect it will be of more use during 'normal times' because if I'd held out for a better rate at any point this year, I'd not have seen single baht so far!

[Thailand1977]

the published growth rate recently needs careful scrutiny, as I remember is was worded in such a way as to mean nothing if interpreted literally, it was quoted that Thailands growth increased by 6% compared to ............. it did not state Thailands growth rate is ...... nor did it quote any actual figures, Thai airways today claims 6m profit but when you actually look at the breakdown it is not as rosy as it sounds, now it could be just words but let me put it like this, if you have a shrinking economy of say 10% and growth increases by 6% then you actually still have a shrink rate of 4%, not saying this is how it is but as usual I trust nothing this govenment says or does and since no actual figures were released hmmmmm

and would you believe them anyway

If you believe your own arguments you should be betting against the Thai Baht and be bursting with joy if you are holding GBP.

Im sorry but why should people have to be putting their house currency trades?

You also made the ridiculous most bizarre comment that it isnt the BHT strenthening but other countries currencies weakening.

Could you please highlight what major currencies of the world the BHT is weakening against.

I am telling you, that you are 100% wrong.

I suppose major depends where your funding comes from mine is from NZ and increasing against a falling Baht, also against plunging Pounds US$ Yen and so on, same with the OZ I believe.

I wanted DENZIN to give a source proving his statement (below) which i have said is clearly wrong when comparing the BHT to the USD, GBP, INR, MYR, HKD, EURO, and several other major or local currencies.

To say it isn't the THB rising yet claiming to be some kind of currency guru is laughable, but i am happy to be proven wrong.

"I am astonished by the amount of uninformed opinion there is on the Thai Baht especially by British farangs. They appear to believe the Thai Baht is rising whereas it is actually the other currencies that are falling.

Edited March 4, 2013 by Thailand1977

[NeverSure]

Things are simple. Life is simple. Experts get paid to make things seem complicated. It's how they justify their existence.

The most valuable investment asset is common sense. Many experts and educators have none.

You can't teach common sense. You can teach business and you can teach economics and you can even teach fortune telling. You cannot teach common sense.

Many people are busy reading charts, studying the past, predicting the future based on experts and their charts, when common sense would tell them to not stand in the middle of the railroad tracks in front of an oncoming train.

But if you aren't listening for, or looking for a train, you might get distracted while focusing on something else. Many people around the world are actually struck and killed by trains every year doing exactly that. How can anyone actually park or stand on tracks and not see or hear a train coming? But people do.

The few with common sense will not be listened to by those who prefer experts, or those who live in the past. Those who might listen are distracted by sensory overflow regarding what's around them today. Sometimes they are so busy panicking that they don't have time to really think. Others don't think at all and are no more unconscious after being hit by a train than they were before they were hit. They are the ones who don't ever know what hit them.

It does little good to enter a forum like this with common sense because common sense disagrees with the experts.

[Naam]

when in doubt ask Fletch. he is (nomen est omen) a smiling British gentleman par excellence.

when you want a kick in the groin then address a Klingon with rubbish such as "in northern Thailand they mount baby rhino heads as trophies" with reasons such as:

-their horns are not suitable to produce the aphrodisiac "Rhinagra"

-baby rhino heads are not traded between Sydney and Tokyo with algorithm flash trading. inspite of originating from babies they are too heavy to be handled by any software except "Algorythm & Blues" which is not yet available.

[meatboy]

Things are simple. Life is simple. Experts get paid to make things seem complicated. It's how they justify their existence.

The most valuable investment asset is common sense. Many experts and educators have none.

You can't teach common sense. You can teach business and you can teach economics and you can even teach fortune telling. You cannot teach common sense.

Many people are busy reading charts, studying the past, predicting the future based on experts and their charts, when common sense would tell them to not stand in the middle of the railroad tracks in front of an oncoming train.

But if you aren't listening for, or looking for a train, you might get distracted while focusing on something else. Many people around the world are actually struck and killed by trains every year doing exactly that. How can anyone actually park or stand on tracks and not see or hear a train coming? But people do.

The few with common sense will not be listened to by those who prefer experts, or those who live in the past. Those who might listen are distracted by sensory overflow regarding what's around them today. Sometimes they are so busy panicking that they don't have time to really think. Others don't think at all and are no more unconscious after being hit by a train than they were before they were hit. They are the ones who don't ever know what hit them.

It does little good to enter a forum like this with common sense because common sense disagrees with the experts.

common sense i always thought i had plenty of that till i looked at the meaning,SOUND AND PRUDENT JUDGMENT,

your not gordon brown are you.

[mccw]

I got 445,000 odd from a 10grand transfer just received.

Does anyone know a good branch to bank with for the rate negotiation in Chiang Mai? My current branch aren't accepting any negotiation at all. Bangkok bank or another if you have good experience.

Cheers

Most bank Treasury Dept's will negotiate to a lesser or greater degree, based on the amount involved, I'm afraid there's unlikley to be any negotiation on GBP 10K, it's just the way things way things are currently.

If first asked them a couple weeks ago when I sent 30k. My wife pointed out that there is 100s of thousands coming but they just weren't interested. I only sent the 10 just now to tied over until the larger funds are ready to move. I intend to find a better branch before then.

[Denizen]

Things are simple. Life is simple. Experts get paid to make things seem complicated. It's how they justify their existence.

The most valuable investment asset is common sense. Many experts and educators have none.

You can't teach common sense. You can teach business and you can teach economics and you can even teach fortune telling. You cannot teach common sense.

Many people are busy reading charts, studying the past, predicting the future based on experts and their charts, when common sense would tell them to not stand in the middle of the railroad tracks in front of an oncoming train.

But if you aren't listening for, or looking for a train, you might get distracted while focusing on something else. Many people around the world are actually struck and killed by trains every year doing exactly that. How can anyone actually park or stand on tracks and not see or hear a train coming? But people do.

The few with common sense will not be listened to by those who prefer experts, or those who live in the past. Those who might listen are distracted by sensory overflow regarding what's around them today. Sometimes they are so busy panicking that they don't have time to really think. Others don't think at all and are no more unconscious after being hit by a train than they were before they were hit. They are the ones who don't ever know what hit them.

It does little good to enter a forum like this with common sense because common sense disagrees with the experts.

Where can I send the penny you earned for your thoughts?

[meatboy]

I got 445,000 odd from a 10grand transfer just received.

Does anyone know a good branch to bank with for the rate negotiation in Chiang Mai? My current branch aren't accepting any negotiation at all. Bangkok bank or another if you have good experience.

Cheers

Most bank Treasury Dept's will negotiate to a lesser or greater degree, based on the amount involved, I'm afraid there's unlikley to be any negotiation on GBP 10K, it's just the way things way things are currently.

If first asked them a couple weeks ago when I sent 30k. My wife pointed out that there is 100s of thousands coming but they just weren't interested. I only sent the 10 just now to tied over until the larger funds are ready to move. I intend to find a better branch before then.

the last couple of years i changed my receiving bank for trans.to siam com.bk.their t.t.rates are always better,but their cash ex.rates are always lower.i did get 12satang on top of the tt rate on 100k gbp.dec.2012

[draftvader]

when in doubt ask Fletch. he is (nomen est omen) a smiling British gentleman par excellence.

when you want a kick in the groin then address a Klingon with rubbish such as "in northern Thailand they mount baby rhino heads as trophies" with reasons such as:

-their horns are not suitable to produce the aphrodisiac "Rhinagra"

-baby rhino heads are not traded between Sydney and Tokyo with algorithm flash trading. inspite of originating from babies they are too heavy to be handled by any software except "Algorythm & Blues" which is not yet available.

Please read this:

http://www.princeton.edu/~msaglam/latency.pdf

and this

http://www.interactivedata.com/uploads/File/article200710Latency.pdf

from this company

http://www.interactivedata.com/index.php/productsandservices/content/id/Low+Latency+Market+Data

I can find you more if you want. In a previous life I was the Sales Manager for a software firm specialising in topological (routing) software. In particular I was selling an addition for Oracle 9i spatial (the component bolted on top of Oracle's database for 3 dimensional spatial information) that helped crunch large numbers for companies working with large data in GIS (Geographic Information Systems). This solution can been seen in action when you use your GPS. Ask it for the shortest possible route avoiding farm tracks and it will perform a topological calculation to provide the optimum route.

This technology was spotted by trading systems companies who wanted to adapt it for the purpose of making trade latency much lower. Often the shortest route is not the quickest (like joining a motorway that does a dog-leg) and this SDK (software development kit) provided the calculation basis for these people. Curiously enough the company I worked for never got the product to market as they were too obsessed with perfection and accuracy (the failing of many a successful software firm...you have to know when you can release "acceptable") and were owned by a group who also owned a failing GPS system used for racing yachts (anybody who knows Larry Ellison will know how he is a racing yacht nut and runs the most successful racing teams on Earth). Nonetheless the company I worked for went into administration. The software assets were stripped out by the administrators and bought by a number of companies including a re-birth of the original company (obviously under a different name), headed by my former boss, and a number of other applications including trading.

For the record I have never claimed to understand currency trading as I don't have the experience, however in the issue of latency, data and communication of large quantities of data I have never been far from the people that do know and was paid well enough to understand it beyond layman's terms so I could communicate it effectively to my client base.

[exeter]

My apologies for asking the wrong question and heartfelt thanks for supplying me with a more appropriate one. With that in mind, I have a question:

I will be buying a 10 million baht apartment with completion in about 3-6 months. Should I commit capital to currency futures in order to facilitate this?

Thanks for your much anticipated answer.

Apologies but my example is flawed because if you were buying a property with foreign ownership then you would be required to transfer the funds in foreign currency, so a future would not be appropriate. A hedge might be ie to protect yourself against a wild drop in sterling. eg 5% on 200,000 = 10,000. You might be better advised to shorten the period between offer and transfer of funds and hope that even here the sale is not affected by a period of heightened volatility. In addition transfer 10% more in funds than is actually required to protect against such.

I think you're getting a little too fancy for your own limited knowledge in your own examples, and in trying to put down other posters.

The result being you're just showing your own lack of knowledge, by not being able to adequately answer and follow thru your own initial example.

I doubt you actually trade futures either, as someone who does would understand how they could indeed use futures as a reasonable hedge regardless of the whether the money has to be transferred in from abroad or not.

Someone who actually trades futures knows they can be bought as well as sold + someone actually trading futures also knows in the majority of cases buyers and sellers close-out/offset their positions by taking out an opposite position rather than letting them mature. So someone trading futures would know the net effect can then debited or credited to the trader's account at settlement date.

Hence if correctly structured the net gain or loss on the futures contracts largely offsets the movement and gain or loss in exchange rates on the underlying exposure of the condo purchase. i.e you don't need to take delivery of the opposite currency on a futures contract, and it's the profit and loss movements that count. So you don't have to worry that the foreign currency needs to be transferred in from overseas or not

Simply put: if you have foreign currency offshore waiting to transfer in, you could indeed take out a futures contract, then take out an opposite contract near maturity instead of letting it mature to close out. You then have the net gain or loss on your futures contracts, you then adjust the amount of foreign currency you transfer by adding or subtracting the profit or loss on the futures.

BTW In your example someone might also use currency options as well.

Moral of the story: play nice with other posters who know less than you do, as there's always someone who knows a little more than you do.

You have reminded me not to get involved in things I dont understand, "futures" and "currency trading" . Even after your plain words I have no experience and I will leave it to those who do understand, or think they do, I have no time to research and learn about them now!

There is always at least one topic running on exchange rates and a good read they are too to see what others think. Charts and statistics can produce whatever you want to support your claims but they are no sure pointer for the future, knowing what to look for is very useful and I have to thank the Lord of the Graphs Naam for drawing my attention to something that really was so obvious........watch the US$ against the GBP as a guide to what is happening to the Thai Bht.

[fletchsmile]

I think you're getting a little too fancy for your own limited knowledge in your own examples, and in trying to put down other posters.

The result being you're just showing your own lack of knowledge, by not being able to adequately answer and follow thru your own initial example.

I doubt you actually trade futures either, as someone who does would understand how they could indeed use futures as a reasonable hedge regardless of the whether the money has to be transferred in from abroad or not.

Someone who actually trades futures knows they can be bought as well as sold + someone actually trading futures also knows in the majority of cases buyers and sellers close-out/offset their positions by taking out an opposite position rather than letting them mature. So someone trading futures would know the net effect can then debited or credited to the trader's account at settlement date.

Hence if correctly structured the net gain or loss on the futures contracts largely offsets the movement and gain or loss in exchange rates on the underlying exposure of the condo purchase. i.e you don't need to take delivery of the opposite currency on a futures contract, and it's the profit and loss movements that count. So you don't have to worry that the foreign currency needs to be transferred in from overseas or not

Simply put: if you have foreign currency offshore waiting to transfer in, you could indeed take out a futures contract, then take out an opposite contract near maturity instead of letting it mature to close out. You then have the net gain or loss on your futures contracts, you then adjust the amount of foreign currency you transfer by adding or subtracting the profit or loss on the futures.

BTW In your example someone might also use currency options as well.

Moral of the story: play nice with other posters who know less than you do, as there's always someone who knows a little more than you do.

All currency Futures are USD trades so there is no hedge for THB possible using such.

PCA

Currency futures generally come in pairs so it needs to be USD vs something. If you look at the "USD futures" on the Thai Futures Exchange (TFEX) for example you'll see their "USD futures" priced in THB.

Hence the hedge is indeed possible. The following link shows the market prices and you could click on the other tabs for things like contract specification and education.

http://www.tfex.co.th/en/products/usd-mktdata.html

BTW Although it's possible to hedge using futures, I wouldn't recommend it for the average person doing it themselves