Jump to content

Recommended Posts

Posted

The manufacturing numbers are poor hence GBP falls against USD (and THB), down one cent at 1.48 and 46.60 respectively, big yawn, death by a a thousand cuts!

  • Replies 2.3k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Posted Images

Posted

Now we await the Ashes affect and the £ soars as England start the retention of the little urn! Starts tomorrow at Trent Bridge.

Posted

The manufacturing numbers are poor hence GBP falls against USD (and THB), down one cent at 1.48 and 46.60 respectively, big yawn, death by a a thousand cuts!

I would call it more like death by machete. The UK has lost its manufacturing base and it doesn't have technology ie computers, internet, smartphones, etc. etc to profit from and it doesn't have natural resources to develop. It has lost control of its immigration and its payments to people who don't won't work, and it is in a bad way.

As much as I love the UK, I can't see where it can turn to to pull itself out of this without a major change in philosophy.

Death by machete.

Posted

If the GBP remains low then exports will do well, much depends on how deep and lasting the current austrity drive is and also the outcome over Europe.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/exports

I am very positive about the UK from the medium term on, but we need to see some serious short term pain first and that really hasn't happened yet - we need the housing market to be allowed to crash and consequntly reset, a couple of banks need to be allowed to fail and a decent bout of deflation to bring prices back in line.

  • Like 1
Posted

The manufacturing numbers are poor hence GBP falls against USD (and THB), down one cent at 1.48 and 46.60 respectively, big yawn, death by a a thousand cuts!

I would call it more like death by machete. The UK has lost its manufacturing base and it doesn't have technology ie computers, internet, smartphones, etc. etc to profit from and it doesn't have natural resources to develop. It has lost control of its immigration and its payments to people who don't won't work, and it is in a bad way.

As much as I love the UK, I can't see where it can turn to to pull itself out of this without a major change in philosophy.

Death by machete.

The usual mish-mash of wild assertions from you.

Although in 2010 the UK slipped down the league of top global producers, the figures also show that actual manufacturing output in 2010 increased by 6.8% (figs from IHS Global Insight via FT).

Posted (edited)

Here's an excellent review of Asian currencies as the Feds QE program is unwound, Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia, all in the same boat:

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/07/10/uk-asia-markets-analysis-idUKBRE9690ZN20130710

For those not willing or able to read the article, markets are pricing in a 4% fall in the value of of THB against USD in one years time, (that's as of today).

Edited by chiang mai
Posted

Here's an excellent review of Asian currencies as the Feds QE program is unwound, Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia, all in the same boat:

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/07/10/uk-asia-markets-analysis-idUKBRE9690ZN20130710

For those not willing or able to read the article, markets are pricing in a 4% fall in the value of of THB against USD in one years time, (that's as of today).

If you believe in any tapper or unwinding of QE maybe;

In reality- the US economy is slowing, interest rates rising with an over leveraged system, so if anything this time next year I think they will be announcing an expanding or QE in a various tricky wrapped up language to appear another temporary boost. (After these 5 years of temporary measures, I wonder if by the time its a decade of money printing already markets will wake up one day to that it is not temporary but permanent and unavoidable to pay for the deficits and to keep a lid on the boiling debt bubbles.

Posted

Here's an excellent review of Asian currencies as the Feds QE program is unwound, Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia, all in the same boat:

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/07/10/uk-asia-markets-analysis-idUKBRE9690ZN20130710

For those not willing or able to read the article, markets are pricing in a 4% fall in the value of of THB against USD in one years time, (that's as of today).

For forwards considerations you should also factor in interest rate differentials.
Posted

Where are you getting these exchange rates guys? I think you'll find that the rate the bank will actually give you is not so good as many of these quoted.

Posted

Where are you getting these exchange rates guys? I think you'll find that the rate the bank will actually give you is not so good as many of these quoted.

FOREX mid-points, easier for comparison purposes because there's no local bank premium added..

Posted

Ok for charts but a bit misleading for what is actually available for joe blogs thinking of his next transfer of living expenses. I follow the Bangkok bank TT offered rate instead for this reason.

(On a side note - the chap in Bangkok bank today was saying they are expecting bht to strengthen again over the next two three months)

Posted

Ok for charts but a bit misleading for what is actually available for joe blogs thinking of his next transfer of living expenses. I follow the Bangkok bank TT offered rate instead for this reason.

(On a side note - the chap in Bangkok bank today was saying they are expecting bht to strengthen again over the next two three months)

Have you seen the difference between the lowest and highest exchange rate for GBP/THB amongst onshore banks/money changers, it's a whopping THB1.70 per Pound.

http://bankexchangerates.daytodaydata.net/default.aspx

Posted

(On a side note - the chap in Bangkok bank today was saying they are expecting bht to strengthen again over the next two three months)

On another side note: I was in CIMB at Central airport plaza last week and there was a flyer on the counter offering 3.4% for five months, I looked at it and asked if that was the old rate. Oh no said the manager, that's the current rate for new funds.

But the BOT just cut the base rate, why is there such a differential, it looks like you guys are buying deposits, are you? Blank stare!

I tried to explain it differently and realised that the conversation was entering the problem zone right around the time I mentioned Bank of Thailand. You do know the BOT I asked, no, she replied, do they have a branch here in the mall!

I cut the conversation short, the smiles returned and I left, making a mental note on the way out to withdraw my funds from them as soon as my fixed term matures.

Posted

(On a side note - the chap in Bangkok bank today was saying they are expecting bht to strengthen again over the next two three months)

On another side note: I was in CIMB at Central airport plaza last week and there was a flyer on the counter offering 3.4% for five months, I looked at it and asked if that was the old rate. Oh no said the manager, that's the current rate for new funds.

But the BOT just cut the base rate, why is there such a differential, it looks like you guys are buying deposits, are you? Blank stare!

I tried to explain it differently and realised that the conversation was entering the problem zone right around the time I mentioned Bank of Thailand. You do know the BOT I asked, no, she replied, do they have a branch here in the mall!

I cut the conversation short, the smiles returned and I left, making a mental note on the way out to withdraw my funds from them as soon as my fixed term matures.

i think the Bank of Thailand has a branch in Pattaya's Walking Street laugh.png

  • Like 1
Posted

Ok for charts but a bit misleading for what is actually available for joe blogs thinking of his next transfer of living expenses. I follow the Bangkok bank TT offered rate instead for this reason.

(On a side note - the chap in Bangkok bank today was saying they are expecting bht to strengthen again over the next two three months)

Have you seen the difference between the lowest and highest exchange rate for GBP/THB amongst onshore banks/money changers, it's a whopping THB1.70 per Pound.

http://bankexchangerates.daytodaydata.net/default.aspx

That I have not seen before; but seeing as super rich is not practical bangkok bank I found to alway be the best exchange rate. Worse rates any other way to go about it than a TT in pounds to them and a better than listed rate given over the phone on a larger move. So them as a base works best for me in judging calculation on what I'll actually have on my hands to use.

Regards CIMB rate. Why shouldn't banks compete to draw in deposits? Surely that is how a healthy system should be acting with in reason. 3.5% was an annualised representation probably and its not like a Greek 8 or 12% to be worried about. Paying savers 3.5 and lending at 7.5 is sound business. Unlike the big western banks not caring for deposits any more since they are propped up by government stimulus and make their cash now mostly by "trading" rigged market.

Posted

Ok for charts but a bit misleading for what is actually available for joe blogs thinking of his next transfer of living expenses. I follow the Bangkok bank TT offered rate instead for this reason.

(On a side note - the chap in Bangkok bank today was saying they are expecting bht to strengthen again over the next two three months)

Dont ever take anyone serious in a Thai bank.. They struggle to open new accounts... sorry but the guy in the bank thing made me laugh out loud

Posted

Ok for charts but a bit misleading for what is actually available for joe blogs thinking of his next transfer of living expenses. I follow the Bangkok bank TT offered rate instead for this reason.

(On a side note - the chap in Bangkok bank today was saying they are expecting bht to strengthen again over the next two three months)

Have you seen the difference between the lowest and highest exchange rate for GBP/THB amongst onshore banks/money changers, it's a whopping THB1.70 per Pound.

http://bankexchangerates.daytodaydata.net/default.aspx

That I have not seen before; but seeing as super rich is not practical bangkok bank I found to alway be the best exchange rate. Worse rates any other way to go about it than a TT in pounds to them and a better than listed rate given over the phone on a larger move. So them as a base works best for me in judging calculation on what I'll actually have on my hands to use.

Regards CIMB rate. Why shouldn't banks compete to draw in deposits? Surely that is how a healthy system should be acting with in reason. 3.5% was an annualised representation probably and its not like a Greek 8 or 12% to be worried about. Paying savers 3.5 and lending at 7.5 is sound business. Unlike the big western banks not caring for deposits any more since they are propped up by government stimulus and make their cash now mostly by "trading" rigged market.

You missed the point on the CIMB story, do you really want to bank at a branch where the manager doesn't kbnow who/what the Bank of Thailand is?

Posted

I guess my contact is slightly better informed thsn yours. He is biddies with forex department and they have guidance and consultation with the bank of thailand apparrently.

In your situation about the local branch; I agree it doesnt really fill one with confidence but jusy as a utility oe deposit I dont see that it makes any much difference to the strength of the bank or safty of your funds.

Posted

Ok for charts but a bit misleading for what is actually available for joe blogs thinking of his next transfer of living expenses. I follow the Bangkok bank TT offered rate instead for this reason.

(On a side note - the chap in Bangkok bank today was saying they are expecting bht to strengthen again over the next two three months)

Have you seen the difference between the lowest and highest exchange rate for GBP/THB amongst onshore banks/money changers, it's a whopping THB1.70 per Pound.

http://bankexchangerates.daytodaydata.net/default.aspx

That I have not seen before; but seeing as super rich is not practical bangkok bank I found to alway be the best exchange rate. Worse rates any other way to go about it than a TT in pounds to them and a better than listed rate given over the phone on a larger move. So them as a base works best for me in judging calculation on what I'll actually have on my hands to use.

Regards CIMB rate. Why shouldn't banks compete to draw in deposits? Surely that is how a healthy system should be acting with in reason. 3.5% was an annualised representation probably and its not like a Greek 8 or 12% to be worried about. Paying savers 3.5 and lending at 7.5 is sound business. Unlike the big western banks not caring for deposits any more since they are propped up by government stimulus and make their cash now mostly by "trading" rigged market.

You missed the point on the CIMB story, do you really want to bank at a branch where the manager doesn't kbnow who/what the Bank of Thailand is?
It wouldn't bother me. Why? because if I was opening a bank account with any bank branch I wouldn't want to know in advance whether the manager did or did not. I might be concerned if the HQ CEO or FOREX strategist didn't know but then knowledge of BoT activities would be a part of their job requirement. Airport bank manager? Less so.
Posted

Ok for charts but a bit misleading for what is actually available for joe blogs thinking of his next transfer of living expenses. I follow the Bangkok bank TT offered rate instead for this reason.

(On a side note - the chap in Bangkok bank today was saying they are expecting bht to strengthen again over the next two three months)

Have you seen the difference between the lowest and highest exchange rate for GBP/THB amongst onshore banks/money changers, it's a whopping THB1.70 per Pound.

http://bankexchangerates.daytodaydata.net/default.aspx

That I have not seen before; but seeing as super rich is not practical bangkok bank I found to alway be the best exchange rate. Worse rates any other way to go about it than a TT in pounds to them and a better than listed rate given over the phone on a larger move. So them as a base works best for me in judging calculation on what I'll actually have on my hands to use.

Regards CIMB rate. Why shouldn't banks compete to draw in deposits? Surely that is how a healthy system should be acting with in reason. 3.5% was an annualised representation probably and its not like a Greek 8 or 12% to be worried about. Paying savers 3.5 and lending at 7.5 is sound business. Unlike the big western banks not caring for deposits any more since they are propped up by government stimulus and make their cash now mostly by "trading" rigged market.

I get a little bit nervous when bank start offering too much above base rate on deposits, that was a large feature of UK banks just before the Pound went into decline. Basically it says there's a mis match between the banks assets and its liabilities or that their capital adequacy ratio's are wonky and they need to buy deposits to remain viable. it's one thing for banks to compete for deposits in a very competitve market where funds are scarse but that's not characteristic of the markets we're in currently where the world is awash with liquidity.

  • Like 1
Posted (edited)

The new BOE governor is now place it will interesting to see whathe does, personally I think he plans to force down the £ to help exports and that is not good news for us, but then he is not interested in expats abroad is he?

Should he be?
He doesn't love us?
no he is an arsehol_e like the last one meet the new boss same as the old boss.
He has a DPhil in Economics. You on the other hand are probably appropriately qualified to shovel cheap shots. Edited by yoshiwara
Posted

The new BOE governor is now place it will interesting to see whathe does, personally I think he plans to force down the £ to help exports and that is not good news for us, but then he is not interested in expats abroad is he?

Should he be?

He doesn't love us?

no he is an arsehol_e like the last one meet the new boss same as the old boss.

Just to be clear - I gave you a like because I like the use of the Who in your post and I agree pretty much about Carney being the same as his predecessor, there's a strong possibility he will. But as others have pointed out he's far from being an a-hole, the problem with it all is not the man but the role which is a target for political interference, influence and is subject to the personal preferences of the incumbent,

Posted

"""

The number of first-time homebuyers has risen to the highest level in five and a half years, porviding further evidence of a recovery in the housing market.

According to the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML), 25,100 loans worth £3.4bn were advanced to people taking their first step on the property ladder during May.

The figure is up 42% on the same time last year, and is the highest volume since November 2007.

It was a marked contrast to the low point of the global financial crisis when just 8,500 loans were given, in January 2009.

"""""

-sky news app

Posted

"""

The number of first-time homebuyers has risen to the highest level in five and a half years, porviding further evidence of a recovery in the housing market.

According to the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML), 25,100 loans worth £3.4bn were advanced to people taking their first step on the property ladder during May.

The figure is up 42% on the same time last year, and is the highest volume since November 2007.

It was a marked contrast to the low point of the global financial crisis when just 8,500 loans were given, in January 2009.

"""""

-sky news app

This is going to end in tears, big time:

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/07/13/uk-banks-results-analysis-idUKBRE96C00S20130713

Posted

As much as I would dearly love to stand on a chair and sing rule britannia I can't see how the Pound is going to get better any time soon. The banks have just started offering hight LTV loans again and it was this issue plus overly optomistic appraisals that put the governement in the defensive position it's in today, at some point interest rates will have to rise and two things will happen: a large segment of exisiting home owners will either go into negative equity or they will default, ultimately the piper has to be paid and the mortgage loan books of the banks will have to be held to account and that means bank failure/merger.closure. When those things have happened we can start to talk about a resilient Pound once again.

Posted

Last Updated 16:14 16/07/2013

Inflation surged to a 14-month high in June as rising prices at the fuel pumps and shallower discounting by fashion retailers intensified pressure on households.

The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation rose to 2.9% last month, from 2.7% in May, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.

It is the highest level since April 2012, although inflation was prevented from climbing higher by falls in the prices of fruit, vegetables, bread, air fares and package holidays.

The ONS said: "The largest upward contributions to the change in the rate came from motor fuels and clothing and footwear.

"The largest downward contribution came from air transport."

The figure was weaker than economists' forecasts of a 3% level, and is expected to fall later in the year as commodity prices ease.

Meanwhile the headline rate of retail price index (RPI) inflation rose to 3.3% in June, up 0.2% from the May figure.

Unlike the US Federal Reserve, which aims to control inflation and also increase employment, the Bank of England's (BoE's) exclusive mission has been to keep inflation close to Government-set target of 2.%.

However, the annual CPI rate has held stubbornly above the target since November 2009.

While inflation has remained stubbornly above the 2% target, shallower price rises will give the Bank more scope to resume economic stimulus through quantitative easing (QE).

Economists said the figure will come as a relief to new Bank governor Mark Carney, avoiding the need for him to write a letter to Chancellor George Osborne explaining high inflation.

The ONS said clothing and footwear prices fell 1.9% month on month, much less than the 4.2% fall a year ago, as retailers started their summer sales with less generous discounts.

Pressure on motorists increased, with petrol and diesel prices both rising by 1.1p per litre, compared with price falls a year earlier.

The figures showed inflation continues to erode consumers' spending power and significantly outstrip wage rises, which increased by just 1.3% in the three months to April compared with a year earlier.

Price rises for personal care items such as moisturiser and deodorant, and increases in the cost of domestic heating fuel, helped drive inflation higher.

But there were falls in the cost of potatoes, fruit, bread, cereals and dairy products, defying economists' expectations of price rises.

Air fares and package holidays also fell in June, compared with sharp increases in flight costs in May.

Price falls for sofa beds, carpets and settees also helped hold back inflation.

A Treasury spokesman said inflation is down significantly from its peak of 5.2% in 2011.

He said: "At the same time, to help families with the cost of living, the Government has increased the tax-free personal allowance to £10,000.

"(It) will take 2.4 million people out of income tax altogether and save a typical basic rate taxpayer almost £600, and frozen fuel duty, which has kept petrol prices 13p per litre lower than they would otherwise have been."

-sky news app

Posted

Just wait till Carney starts to talk about quantative easing ect ,the pound will fall ,imports will get more expensive and inflation will rise ,i was back in the UK some weeks ago ,inflation 2.9% bah humbug (unless you want to buy a new tv or furniture) it was up far higher than that in a year on normal everyday goods.

Posted (edited)

Exchange rates come in pairs.

If the UK is down the toilet it's currency will fall against a country which is not having problems.

Anyone who attempts to diss a currency without comparing it to the proposed alternative currency is not really knowledgeable.

Now tell us in what way you think Thailand is doing better or facing less problems than the UK?

Thailand facing 5% loss in GDP due to rice scams.

Thailand trying to procure huge loans to be wasted on more scams.

Several Thai banks insolvent (including the government bank).

Manufacturing shut down due to last years flooding, this years flooding imminent.

Consumer debt out of control.

Huge housing bubble.

Government led by a puppet controlled by a criminal.

Civil war looming.

Military coups every 5 years.

Now try to convince everyone to transfer all their assets to Thailand before the UK currency fails?

Edited by AnotherOneAmerican
  • Like 1
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.




×
×
  • Create New...