GBP to THB Exchange Rate

[mommysboy]

NOT ROCKET SCIENCE

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-02/baht-weakens-as-central-bank-to-cut-growth-forecasts-bonds-rise.html

UK continues to get stronger and Thailand continues to falter.

All with the back drop of a looming removal of QE - already in the UK.

You wait until the market really thinks that QE will be removed. Back to 58-65 in flash.

Look at the graph and in 2008 in line with the introduction of QE - direct correlation.

Regarding Direct Correlation: Just because it was that at one point doesn't necessarily imply that's what it will be again, were that the case we might point to pre 1997 and suggest that it will once again be 35, but we wouldn't do that because the fundamentals have changed in the meantime!

And as for the UK getting stronger: it might just be that there is some surface improvement in some areas of the UK economy but this is nowhere near the level implied in various press reports and articles. Even previously well respected offcial bodies have been drawn into the task of "ramping up" as a part of a hearts and minds campaign, read any reasonably well respected analyst or financial commentator and you'll soon see this is the case. And this is not about putting down the UK economy, it's about dealing in fact and fact only.

Finally on the withdrawl of QE: you have to ask yourself, will that ever happen completely and if so, will it be withdrawn at such a slow rate that the transitional impact will be negligible, I beleieve that to be the case and that the bigger threat from QE is, as another poster already stated, that it could be reintroduced into the UK at some point.

And finally finally, re. GDP: yes indeed Thailand has reduced its GDP estimates and they may well do so again before it's all over and done, but as things stand presently that estimate is at 3.7% which compares favorably to the UK's embryonic 0.7%. Given the state of the financials in both camps plus the state of the global economy, I'd say that 3.7% looks very respectable indeed.

"And finally finally, re. GDP: yes indeed Thailand has reduced its GDP estimates and they may well do so again before it's all over and done, but as things stand presently that estimate is at 3.7% which compares favorably to the UK's embryonic 0.7%. Given the state of the financials in both camps plus the state of the global economy, I'd say that 3.7% looks very respectable indeed."

3.7%, if it is that high, might seem respectable but is not good at all for an emerging market, which tend to pay higher interest rates on their borrowings, in fact alarm bells should be sounding.

I don't think it is possible to compare like for like between UK and Thailand, as say UK and USA. What can be said is UK is on the up (just about), whilst Thailand is dipping.

Last estimate I saw UK GDP is set to come in at 1.2%

[chiang mai]

NOT ROCKET SCIENCE

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-02/baht-weakens-as-central-bank-to-cut-growth-forecasts-bonds-rise.html

UK continues to get stronger and Thailand continues to falter.

All with the back drop of a looming removal of QE - already in the UK.

You wait until the market really thinks that QE will be removed. Back to 58-65 in flash.

Look at the graph and in 2008 in line with the introduction of QE - direct correlation.

Regarding Direct Correlation: Just because it was that at one point doesn't necessarily imply that's what it will be again, were that the case we might point to pre 1997 and suggest that it will once again be 35, but we wouldn't do that because the fundamentals have changed in the meantime!

And as for the UK getting stronger: it might just be that there is some surface improvement in some areas of the UK economy but this is nowhere near the level implied in various press reports and articles. Even previously well respected offcial bodies have been drawn into the task of "ramping up" as a part of a hearts and minds campaign, read any reasonably well respected analyst or financial commentator and you'll soon see this is the case. And this is not about putting down the UK economy, it's about dealing in fact and fact only.

Finally on the withdrawl of QE: you have to ask yourself, will that ever happen completely and if so, will it be withdrawn at such a slow rate that the transitional impact will be negligible, I beleieve that to be the case and that the bigger threat from QE is, as another poster already stated, that it could be reintroduced into the UK at some point.

And finally finally, re. GDP: yes indeed Thailand has reduced its GDP estimates and they may well do so again before it's all over and done, but as things stand presently that estimate is at 3.7% which compares favorably to the UK's embryonic 0.7%. Given the state of the financials in both camps plus the state of the global economy, I'd say that 3.7% looks very respectable indeed.

"And finally finally, re. GDP: yes indeed Thailand has reduced its GDP estimates and they may well do so again before it's all over and done, but as things stand presently that estimate is at 3.7% which compares favorably to the UK's embryonic 0.7%. Given the state of the financials in both camps plus the state of the global economy, I'd say that 3.7% looks very respectable indeed."

3.7%, if it is that high, might seem respectable but is not good at all for an emerging market, which tend to pay higher interest rates on their borrowings, in fact alarm bells should be sounding.

I don't think it is possible to compare like for like between UK and Thailand, as say UK and USA. What can be said is UK is on the up (just about), whilst Thailand is dipping.

Last estimate I saw UK GDP is set to come in at 1.2%

Very much agreed on the above underlined.

Unsure about UK GDP, September forecasts range from between 0.8% and 2.1% for September (only one forecast came in at 2.1%, from Experian, the remainder were all sub 1.5%!!!) - average August forecast was 1.1% so it looks like Experian is a plant to up the numbers.

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/245688/201309forecomp.pdf

[Naam]

being, as opposed to many resident gurus, a layman GBPTHB 96.5 is a rather moderate but of course uneducated guess. the chances are excellent that Sterling reaches unseen heights vs. Thai Baht; perhaps 120 or even 150. after all... Brittania rules and the Baht is doomed.

Back to 58-65 in flash

and then a jump to 96.5 in no time.

Really ,do you think it will go that high naam ? because you just couldnt be being sarcastic ,its not like you and you know everything ,dont you?

Brittania rules eh Naam ,well two world wars and one world cup wasnt a bad start, Still you have the French to help you now via the E.U

how come you did not mention the Battle of Trafalgar in 1805 when Nelson licked the Frogs and the Spaniards without the former colonials doing the main job?

[Naam]

It was stated publicly that BOT had intervened in the markets to the tune of USD 3.76 bill. and this was reflected in the BOT stats for August.

that is correct but that statement in context with $3.76bb was made by you Chiang Mai.

the fact that the reserves are down does not necessarily prove any intervention. reserves are used for a variety of reasons. among them allocation of foreign currency to importers and fluctuations up/down of (in the discussed case) 2% are negligible.

sigh... here we are back to "who, what or why are reserves and their purposes?"

No, the statement was made by BOT in the newspaper whose name cannot be mentioned and reiterated by our beloved Finance Minister.

I'm not allowed to post the article but here's an extract:

EDIT: apologies, posted the wrong article.

"Reserves increased slightly because the BoT had to intervene in the money market to curb the baht's fluctuation by purchasing US dollars on the spot market, the central bank said".

google: BOT intervention for the remainder plus others.

oh dear...

you reported publicly that BoT reserves are down $3.76bb because of currency intervention but the media (that cannot be mentioned) reported publicly without specifying any figures that reserves increased because of currency intervention.

please clarify.

[i claudius]

Calm down Naam ,we just cannot help being GREAT Britain,but you know that already ,dont you old lad

[chiang mai]

It was stated publicly that BOT had intervened in the markets to the tune of USD 3.76 bill. and this was reflected in the BOT stats for August.

that is correct but that statement in context with $3.76bb was made by you Chiang Mai.

the fact that the reserves are down does not necessarily prove any intervention. reserves are used for a variety of reasons. among them allocation of foreign currency to importers and fluctuations up/down of (in the discussed case) 2% are negligible.

sigh... here we are back to "who, what or why are reserves and their purposes?"

No, the statement was made by BOT in the newspaper whose name cannot be mentioned and reiterated by our beloved Finance Minister.

I'm not allowed to post the article but here's an extract:

EDIT: apologies, posted the wrong article.

"Reserves increased slightly because the BoT had to intervene in the money market to curb the baht's fluctuation by purchasing US dollars on the spot market, the central bank said".

google: BOT intervention for the remainder plus others.

oh dear...

you reported publicly that BoT reserves are down $3.76bb because of currency intervention but the media (that cannot be mentioned) reported publicly without specifying any figures that reserves increased because of currency intervention.

please clarify.

....WERE down (not are down), HAVE increased:

http://www2.bot.or.th/statistics/BOTWEBSTAT.aspx?reportID=94&language=ENG

EDIT: and whilst typing - I remain unclear on the QE question, you say the money doesn't enter the system, others say it does and I also understood that it does. I know you don't like to waste your time helping mere mortals, but, in the interests of the education of all and sundry, would you please explain a little bit, just think of us as gods also, if that helps you?

Edited October 4, 2013 by chiang mai

[Naam]

and whilst typing - I remain unclear on the QE question, you say the money doesn't enter the system, others say it does and I also understood that it does. I know you don't like to waste your time helping mere mortals, but, in the interests of the education of all and sundry, would you please explain a little bit, just think of us as gods also, if that helps you?

to cover that topic from all perspectives without writing a small dissertation is virtually impossible. but i can render a short statement (you can call it a claim) which anybody should be able to understand.

if only a part of "QE" had entered the system we would see considerable inflation in relevant countries like the U.S. or the EU (UK included). and before anybody counters with "look at the commodities, that's where QE has caused inflation" he should check the development of commodity prices since QE was introduced and not rely on some age old figures presented by the well known gloom&doomers.

[Naam]

....WERE down (not are down), HAVE increased:

http://www2.bot.or.t...94&language=ENG

i did not refer to a BoT statement which says "increased" but your statement in this thread which says "decreased". look up your statement, i am too lazy to do that.

[chiang mai]

It was stated publicly that BOT had intervened in the markets to the tune of USD 3.76 bill. and this was reflected in the BOT stats for August.

that is correct but that statement in context with $3.76bb was made by you Chiang Mai.

the fact that the reserves are down does not necessarily prove any intervention. reserves are used for a variety of reasons. among them allocation of foreign currency to importers and fluctuations up/down of (in the discussed case) 2% are negligible.

sigh... alt=ermm.gif> here we are back to "who, what or why are reserves and their purposes?"

....WERE down (not are down), HAVE increased:

http://www2.bot.or.t...94&language=ENG

i did not refer to a BoT statement which says "increased" but your statement in this thread which says "decreased". look up your statement, i am too lazy to do that.

You seem to accept there was intervention by BOT in August but at the same time you suggest the decrease in foriegn reserves might be attributable to something else, you imply this might be the, "primary purpose", of foriegn reserves, unsure.

Tell me that we're not going to debate the number of angels on a pinhead, the amount of foriegn reserves attributable in August to management of THB and the amount spent on "other" activities! If we/you are going to go down that road I will ask you to explain how your reasoning applies to previous months and to produce evidence, the foriegn reserves spreadsheet is an earlier post.

[Huayrat]

NOT ROCKET SCIENCE

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-02/baht-weakens-as-central-bank-to-cut-growth-forecasts-bonds-rise.html

UK continues to get stronger and Thailand continues to falter.

All with the back drop of a looming removal of QE - already in the UK.

You wait until the market really thinks that QE will be removed. Back to 58-65 in flash.

Look at the graph and in 2008 in line with the introduction of QE - direct correlation.

Regarding Direct Correlation: Just because it was that at one point doesn't necessarily imply that's what it will be again, were that the case we might point to pre 1997 and suggest that it will once again be 35, but we wouldn't do that because the fundamentals have changed in the meantime!

And as for the UK getting stronger: it might just be that there is some surface improvement in some areas of the UK economy but this is nowhere near the level implied in various press reports and articles. Even previously well respected offcial bodies have been drawn into the task of "ramping up" as a part of a hearts and minds campaign, read any reasonably well respected analyst or financial commentator and you'll soon see this is the case. And this is not about putting down the UK economy, it's about dealing in fact and fact only.

Finally on the withdrawl of QE: you have to ask yourself, will that ever happen completely and if so, will it be withdrawn at such a slow rate that the transitional impact will be negligible, I beleieve that to be the case and that the bigger threat from QE is, as another poster already stated, that it could be reintroduced into the UK at some point.

And finally finally, re. GDP: yes indeed Thailand has reduced its GDP estimates and they may well do so again before it's all over and done, but as things stand presently that estimate is at 3.7% which compares favorably to the UK's embryonic 0.7%. Given the state of the financials in both camps plus the state of the global economy, I'd say that 3.7% looks very respectable indeed.

"And finally finally, re. GDP: yes indeed Thailand has reduced its GDP estimates and they may well do so again before it's all over and done, but as things stand presently that estimate is at 3.7% which compares favorably to the UK's embryonic 0.7%. Given the state of the financials in both camps plus the state of the global economy, I'd say that 3.7% looks very respectable indeed."

3.7%, if it is that high, might seem respectable but is not good at all for an emerging market, which tend to pay higher interest rates on their borrowings, in fact alarm bells should be sounding.

I don't think it is possible to compare like for like between UK and Thailand, as say UK and USA. What can be said is UK is on the up (just about), whilst Thailand is dipping.

Last estimate I saw UK GDP is set to come in at 1.2%

Finally someone with sense who actually can see whats happening in both countries.. I couldnt agree more..

[Naam]

it is useless to discuss Thailand's foreign reserves, whether up or down, in the thread "GBP/THB". the same applies to comparisons of UK's and TH's GDP growth, further UK "QE-ing" or the wishful thinking of Brits living in Thailand and spending GBP income.

both GBP and THB are, seen internationally, insignificant currencies and are vulnerable to a variety of market forces. that of course applies also to "real" currencies!

but i am quite amused seeing often a Brit hammering on the "doomed" EU and its "doomed" currency €UR and the "doomed²" currency USD. but if i'd asked the question "why is the Pound not gaining considerably vs. €UR and/or USD?" there wouldn't be any answer or perhaps a comment which has been used since some years hundreds of times in dozens of Thaivisa threads, namely "if not soon then any time from now" or in the worst case scenario "we won two world wars!"

yawnnn... and

[mccw]

^ Actually all western economies face the same demographics problems. Japan being the furthest advanced.

[chiang mai]

it is useless to discuss Thailand's foreign reserves, whether up or down, in the thread "GBP/THB". the same applies to comparisons of UK's and TH's GDP growth, further UK "QE-ing" or the wishful thinking of Brits living in Thailand and spending GBP income.

both GBP and THB are, seen internationally, insignificant currencies and are vulnerable to a variety of market forces. that of course applies also to "real" currencies!

but i am quite amused seeing often a Brit hammering on the "doomed" EU and its "doomed" currency €UR and the "doomed²" currency USD. but if i'd asked the question "why is the Pound not gaining considerably vs. €UR and/or USD?" there wouldn't be any answer or perhaps a comment which has been used since some years hundreds of times in dozens of Thaivisa threads, namely "if not soon then any time from now" or in the worst case scenario "we won two world wars!"

yawnnn... and

Except that it's potentially useful to understand past behaviour (of say the BOT) as an indicator of what action they might take in the future, otherwise you are broadly correct.

[mccw]

^ many of these companies are only nose above water because of the record low interest rates.

[mccw]

And rates aren't only set by the BoE; the variable rates are set by banks based on thier own funding costs, a down turn or liquidity problems from macro events elsewhere- like a us debt default or euro flare up or or or , could all result in higher rates no matter what the BoE sets the official rate at; this could send vast swaths of households and businesses under. Only QE / government direct intervention in the market would keep it together and this size of new money creation could / would send £ (along with the rest west) down another 2-30% or more like last time or worse. Risks abound.

[metisdead]

Some posts that are deviating from the topic have been removed, maybe a review of the OP would be in order to get back on topic.

[chiang mai]

I think it's important to understand that the economy drives the THB exchange rate, my earlier comment about the profit warning at Carpetright is important because Carpetright is one of the key companies that governement watches, when the economy is bouyant then people buy new homes and they buy new carpet also, that's why the company news is significant and was posted here.

[Huayrat]

I agree chiang mai.. my post also does effect the GBP/THB and im confused as why it was deleted.. surely your allowed debate on here.. yours and my post where 100% about the GBP

[mccw]

Obviously the health of the British economy, housing market, welfare state and potential printing all effect the exchange rate- as does everything Thailand economy related. Beyond that the macro economics and some major events in US EU Japan etc can all effect the exchange rate. Commodities effects of supply/ war and all sorts effect exchange rates.

[Huayrat]

12% more car sales this month Thats the best in the last 5 years....

[i claudius]

it is useless to discuss Thailand's foreign reserves, whether up or down, in the thread "GBP/THB". the same applies to comparisons of UK's and TH's GDP growth, further UK "QE-ing" or the wishful thinking of Brits living in Thailand and spending GBP income.

both GBP and THB are, seen internationally, insignificant currencies and are vulnerable to a variety of market forces. that of course applies also to "real" currencies!

but i am quite amused seeing often a Brit hammering on the "doomed" EU and its "doomed" currency €UR and the "doomed²" currency USD. but if i'd asked the question "why is the Pound not gaining considerably vs. €UR and/or USD?" there wouldn't be any answer or perhaps a comment which has been used since some years hundreds of times in dozens of Thaivisa threads, namely "if not soon then any time from now" or in the worst case scenario "we won two world wars!"

yawnnn... and

And dont forget the world cup !!

[chiang mai]

I've only just noticed, yesterday GBP/THB was at 50.68, today it's at 50.05, perhaps Huayrat is right, maybe the Baht is crashing, whaaaa!

[RAZZELL]

Anyone guess why the big drop in a day ?

RAZZ

[chiang mai]

Anyone guess why the big drop in a day ?

RAZZ

Yup, USD strengthened against GBP, it went from 1.625 to 1.601, (ish).

Edited October 5, 2013 by chiang mai

[FiftyTwo]

Anyone guess why the big drop in a day ?

RAZZ

It always ends low on the weekends, traders have settled their positions.

Rises from Monday to Thursday, drops on Friday for the weekend.

[chiang mai]

That's not what the charts say:

http://www.oanda.com/currency/historical-rates/

[Naam]

That's not what the charts say:

http://www.oanda.com/currency/historical-rates/

why spoil with facts interesting theories?

[chiang mai]

That's not what the charts say:

http://www.oanda.com/currency/historical-rates/

why spoil with facts interesting theories?

It's an exciting concept that world currencies are determined by the behaviour of traders on Fridays, unfortunately I don't think that bucket is capable of holding water! But hey, 9/10 for creative excuse making.

Edited October 5, 2013 by chiang mai

[FiftyTwo]

That's not what the charts say:

http://www.oanda.com/currency/historical-rates/

why spoil with facts interesting theories?

It's an exciting concept that world currencies are determined by the behaviour of traders on Fridays, unfortunately I don't think that bucket is capable of holding water! But hey, 9/10 for creative excuse making.

I was just placing my theory of the 'Friday drop' phenomenon.

It doesn't explain the way the currency is moving, just why the GBP currently drops on Friday.

If the GBP was generally moving down against the THB the traders would be taking the opposite position, which would mean the THB drops on Friday, when they squared their positions.

[Ticker2000]

That's not what the charts say:

http://www.oanda.com/currency/historical-rates/

why spoil with facts interesting theories?

It's an exciting concept that world currencies are determined by the behaviour of traders on Fridays, unfortunately I don't think that bucket is capable of holding water! But hey, 9/10 for creative excuse making.

CM

Thats what your chart says exactly what the chart says if you compare GBP to THB

There is small dip every Friday for the last month - did not check further back..

Hopefully you will come back and correct your statement.