GBP to THB Exchange Rate

[Ticker2000]

Well its rebounded well today - and its a Friday which will please Chiang Mai.

Maybe something a foot for next week? - or just trading within range pending news?

[chiang mai]

Well its rebounded well today - and its a Friday which will please Chiang Mai.

Maybe something a foot for next week? - or just trading within range pending news?

It's all about Dollar weakness at present, we have to wait until that changes from the shenanigans of earlier in the week..

[meatboy]

i see on bloomberg that there is an investigation into curreny fixing by certain banks j,just a thought have we any grounds to make a claim for any loss we occured.seems they have the conversations between these -ankers and the dates.

one of the banks involved i have been transfering money with them for over 18yrs.

Edited October 19, 2013 by meatboy

[mccw]

Co-OP bank has basically failed. They needed to raise over 1.5billion pounds apparrently and have been refinanced / bought out privately leaving the co-OP group just a 30% stake; its no longer a mutual and the old owners and bond holders had to swallow undisclosed loses.

- source is from sky news and elsewhere if you take a look around I'm sure.

[topt]

Co-OP bank has basically failed. They needed to raise over 1.5billion pounds apparrently and have been refinanced / bought out privately leaving the co-OP group just a 30% stake; its no longer a mutual and the old owners and bond holders had to swallow undisclosed loses.

- source is from sky news and elsewhere if you take a look around I'm sure.

mccw I am puzzled what this has to do with GBP to baht exchange rate or did you post this in the wrong place?

[mccw]

Co-OP bank has basically failed. They needed to raise over 1.5billion pounds apparrently and have been refinanced / bought out privately leaving the co-OP group just a 30% stake; its no longer a mutual and the old owners and bond holders had to swallow undisclosed loses.

- source is from sky news and elsewhere if you take a look around I'm sure.

mccw I am puzzled what this has to do with GBP to baht exchange rate or did you post this in the wrong place?

I say - Of course its related, as is the wider economy, housing market etc etc in both countries as well as the macro factors that we have all been discussing in this thread for the past many months already.

So; why You don't think the health of British banks/ economy is related to the strength or other wise of the £?

[topt]

The problems with the Co Op bank have been detailed previously and really are "old" news.

Since you ask I personally doubt whether this latest update has had any particular effect, positive or negative, on the £. Of course that is just my view.

But thanks for answering :-)

[mccw]

The problems with the Co Op bank have been detailed previously and really are "old" news.

Since you ask I personally doubt whether this latest update has had any particular effect, positive or negative, on the £. Of course that is just my view.

But thanks for answering :-)

Indeed; that the Co-OP bank has troubles is old news- but the result and this update is new, I post this since many previously on this thread were banking with the co-Op and appreciated the updates. Also; how the fall out from 08 is still unfolding is relevant to the discussion of gbp fx rates, although this one detail won't move markets alone, it is part of the body information which can help form a well informed view of the situation. Think also Barclays re-cap from Qatar and UAE, along with the government bail outs of others and Lloyd's disastrous take over of Halifax building society. In my opinion this news is the latest point in an ongoing story of unstable loan books of British banks who have low capitalisation ratios and difficulty obtaining fund in the open market (ie relying on government or buy out rather than interbank lending), compared to Thai banks who appear to have high cap ratios of 10 to 27%.

From this picture I am guessing that bht has a good chance to remain fairly stable where as gbp is in danger of loosing significant value if/ when further bail outs are required at the next down turn in the credit cycle.

[yoshiwara]

The problems with the Co Op bank have been detailed previously and really are "old" news.

Since you ask I personally doubt whether this latest update has had any particular effect, positive or negative, on the £. Of course that is just my view.

But thanks for answering :-)

Indeed; that the Co-OP bank has troubles is old news- but the result and this update is new, I post this since many previously on this thread were banking with the co-Op and appreciated the updates. Also; how the fall out from 08 is still unfolding is relevant to the discussion of gbp fx rates, although this one detail won't move markets alone, it is part of the body information which can help form a well informed view of the situation. Think also Barclays re-cap from Qatar and UAE, along with the government bail outs of others and Lloyd's disastrous take over of Halifax building society. In my opinion this news is the latest point in an ongoing story of unstable loan books of British banks who have low capitalisation ratios and difficulty obtaining fund in the open market (ie relying on government or buy out rather than interbank lending), compared to Thai banks who appear to have high cap ratios of 10 to 27%.

From this picture I am guessing that bht has a good chance to remain fairly stable where as gbp is in danger of loosing significant value if/ when further bail outs are required at the next down turn in the credit cycle.

Many long -time Co-op members, including me, are well aware that the Co-op has a history of being a shambolic organisation. We consoled ourselves that the bank at least was a shining light while the retail/wholesale operations recovered themselves (again). So much for that one. No point taking the Co-op as any guide whatsoever as an indicator of the overall UK economy and certainly not as a bell weather for the GDP-THB rate.

[chiang mai]

I agree, the Co-op issues are about their meger with Britannia and the associated loan book, not really GBP related.

But US jobs data comming out today is relevant, even a good showing is unlikely to see USD strengthen very much given the recent governement closures.

[chiang mai]

US jobs data came in some 32k under expectations, that pushes QE tapering out until end 1Q14 at the soonest, that should be THB positive.

Edited October 22, 2013 by chiang mai

[mccw]

Metro bank looking "take advantage of favourable stock market conditions" and issues shares due to the need to raise fresh capital due to losses:

"""" The circular to investors also outlined the escalating losses at Metro Bank, which lost £14.3m before tax in the three months to September and £38.6m in the year-to-date. That takes the lender's total losses since being set up to nearly £140m. """"

Source is sky news

Not exactly massive numbers involved. But the guys who set this up are billionaires; why go to markets and not invest a bit more themselves?

[yoshiwara]

Metro bank looking "take advantage of favourable stock market conditions" and issues shares due to the need to raise fresh capital due to losses:

"""" The circular to investors also outlined the escalating losses at Metro Bank, which lost £14.3m before tax in the three months to September and £38.6m in the year-to-date. That takes the lender's total losses since being set up to nearly £140m. """"

Source is sky news

Not exactly massive numbers involved. But the guys who set this up are billionaires; why go to markets and not invest a bit more themselves?

Just opened an account with Metro as an alternative to the Co-op. Way to go...

[chiang mai]

The earliest estimate to begin tapering QE would now seem to be March 2014 with many suggesting it may be much later, some are even talking of QE being expanded rather than tapered, this all seems to fit with Yellen being an arch dove - USD weakness continues to be the major issue as far as GBP/THB is concerned.

THB now seems to be strengthening as the implications of the above become apparent but still only just over 50 as GBP remains firm, difficult to imagine what the next big event might be that causes a change in current direction hence it looks like 50.00 ish (spot) is the status quo.

Edited October 23, 2013 by chiang mai

[chiang mai]

Too funny, BOE now formally acknowledges that markets were probably correct and that the first interest rate rise may take place sooner than previously planned, King Canute anyone!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/bank-of-england/10398922/Bank-of-England-hints-at-earlier-interest-rate-rise.html

Edited October 23, 2013 by chiang mai

[Huayrat]

Too funny, BOE now formally acknowledges that markets were probably correct and that the first interest rate rise may take place sooner than previously planned, King Canute anyone!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/bank-of-england/10398922/Bank-of-England-hints-at-earlier-interest-rate-rise.html

And here was you saying that the British economy wasn't doing to well not very long ago.. I told you months ago that things are changing in Britain and I also said there will be an interest rate rise sooner than later.. If the Growth in Thailand is only going to be 2% this year and I mean the real figure not the one that they might make up then the British economy is on a par with the Thais..

Edited October 23, 2013 by Huayrat

[Huayrat]

I'd take 50 to the pound for the rest of my life as I'm Happy with that..

[mccw]

Incase anybody missed it and to continue the British banking theme:

"""Barclays' status as the leading proponent of the reforms may prove to be contentious among some investors who were taken by surprise when the bank was forced into a £5.8bn rights issue by banking regulators during the summer.

Its fundraising came after a torrid year for the British lender, beginning with its £290m fine for manipulating the interbank borrowing rate, Libor."""

-sky news

[chiang mai]

Too funny, BOE now formally acknowledges that markets were probably correct and that the first interest rate rise may take place sooner than previously planned, King Canute anyone!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/bank-of-england/10398922/Bank-of-England-hints-at-earlier-interest-rate-rise.html

And here was you saying that the British economy wasn't doing to well not very long ago.. I told you months ago that things are changing in Britain and I also said there will be an interest rate rise sooner than later.. If the Growth in Thailand is only going to be 2% this year and I mean the real figure not the one that they might make up then the British economy is on a par with the Thais..

We don’t disagree on interest rates, I’ve always believed that markets will determine when rates rise. And yes I am mildly surprised that the UK economy has continued to improve and I truly hope that continues.

But let’s put that improvement into perspective shall we, the current situation is a slight improvement on a very bad situation, this is not a case of a good thing getting even better! The budget deficit still exists but it is slowly being reduced, in other words we’re still spending about £7 bill. more each month than we earn and at the end of each month that balance is being added to the national debt which now exceeds £1.20 trillion or 90% of GDP, when will it stop growing I ask myself, let alone how and when will it be repaid.

http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2010/oct/18/deficit-debt-government-borrowing-data

http://www.ukpublicspending.co.uk/uk_national_debt_chart.html

So how is the deficit being reduced, it’s not through international trade because last month that deficit was over £3 bill. Cost cutting measures by central government, taxes on increased energy (gas and electric) sales and increased receipts from Stamp Duty as sales of London property skyrockets are three of the most obvious ways. In other words, The UK is awash with tons of foreign investment money (legal and illegal) looking for a temporary safe home plus the UK consumer is being squeezed and made to pay for the deficit reduction, it’s not being paid for by any meaningful increase in manufacturing (10% of the economy) exports or services which actually declined in September.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23984159

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-24346846

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2013/oct/03/strong-uk-services-data-fastest-growth

In truth the international race to the bottom appears to be led by Europe and the US whilst the UK is faring quite well by comparison, judging by the volume of overseas investors who are paying massive premiums to park their savings in UK real estate, no matter that many UK citizens can no longer afford the asking prices of homes in their own country. But what happens when that flow of money reverses, which it surely will do at some point, Europe wont be sick for ever and any reversal of funds flow will be ugly and reflected in the value of the Pound?

So the issue is not just about growth this year, it's about the underlying debt and the fundamentals of both economies, the UK economy today may look good by comparison to yesterday but when you look at the larger picture and compare it against other economies, it's doesn't look good at all.

[yoshiwara]

Too funny, BOE now formally acknowledges that markets were probably correct and that the first interest rate rise may take place sooner than previously planned, King Canute anyone!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/bank-of-england/10398922/Bank-of-England-hints-at-earlier-interest-rate-rise.html

And here was you saying that the British economy wasn't doing to well not very long ago.. I told you months ago that things are changing in Britain and I also said there will be an interest rate rise sooner than later.. If the Growth in Thailand is only going to be 2% this year and I mean the real figure not the one that they might make up then the British economy is on a par with the Thais..

So the issue is not just about growth this year, it's about the underlying debt and the fundamentals of both economies, the UK economy today may look good by comparison to yesterday but when you look at the larger picture and compare it against other economies, it's doesn't look good at all.

On the one hand, on the other hand.......

[mommysboy]

I'm inclined towards CM's assessment regarding the recovery. Quite simply it is no recovery whilst public debt spirals.

Traditionally, at least the only way out has been devaluation to spur trade, and to cut government spending. It defies belief but it could be we will be having a replay of the past few years in my opinion. Quite where that leaves the pound I don't know because the crisis is much the same in USA too and much of Europe.

[yoshiwara]

I'm inclined towards CM's assessment regarding the recovery. Quite simply it is no recovery whilst public debt spirals.

You should be better inclined towards accurate data. US public debt as a percentage of GDP is in decline.

[mccw]

I agree with CM basically but don't see interest rates rising any significant amount. Quarter or half a point max, if at all.

[mccw]

(Above is in time period up to the next down turn/ crises).

[chiang mai]

I'm inclined towards CM's assessment regarding the recovery. Quite simply it is no recovery whilst public debt spirals.

You should be better inclined towards accurate data. US public debt as a percentage of GDP is in decline.

The subject is the UK, why mention US debt and US GDP! But since you did, the decline you mention is, er, um, kinda small ish and not exactly a trend:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/GFDEGDQ188S

Edited October 24, 2013 by chiang mai

[churchill]

I'm inclined towards CM's assessment regarding the recovery. Quite simply it is no recovery whilst public debt spirals.

You should be better inclined towards accurate data. US public debt as a percentage of GDP is in decline.

decline ...perhaps if you rotate the chart

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/GFDEGDQ188S

[mccw]

""""One of the City's biggest asset managers is plotting a takeover of the fund management arm of Lloyds Banking Group that could result in the taxpayer-backed bank owning a sizeable stake in it.

Sky News has learnt that Aberdeen Asset Management is proposing an all-share deal to buy Scottish Widows Investment Partnership (SWIP), which manages more than £140bn on behalf of investors.""""

So we have the British banks still going through break ups, rights issues, recapitalisation etc; years after the crises there are still obviously major problems. Not just the small fry but the big boys too. Its positive in a way that they are progressing, but I think the signs and evidence shows how fragile everything is- in the event of another down turn the British banks are likely to need further support and so the £ is in danger of significant weakening.

Money where my mouth is. This past month I've sold The lions share value wise of our uk property and moved it all/ that's 70% of our net worth to Thailand.

[yoshiwara]

I'm inclined towards CM's assessment regarding the recovery. Quite simply it is no recovery whilst public debt spirals.

You should be better inclined towards accurate data. US public debt as a percentage of GDP is in decline.

decline ...perhaps if you rotate the chart

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/GFDEGDQ188S

What I should have said is that the Federal budget deficit as a percentage of GDP has been coming down (though still remains in deficit you will want to point out)...but there has been progress.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e7839dc4-319e-11e3-817c-00144feab7de.html?siteedition=uk#axzz2idy46hra

[chiang mai]

Governments desire to reignite the housing market is aimed at two things, increasing GDP and improving the mortgage loan books of the banks, not necessarily in that order. And whilst property prices have increased in Central London and to a lesser degree in the South East, the country as a whole has yet to see any meaningful evidence of across the board increases – source, Land Registry.

But, property prices are already a significant concern to many with large segments of the population already priced out, those factors combine to supress an already limited supply where the downstream impact must surely be a housing market that stagnates, ergo, GDP does not increase to a meaningful degree and the stress on bank mortgage loan books remains.

If my argument is incorrect or I’ve missed something, I’m certain someone will tell me.

[churchill]

I'm inclined towards CM's assessment regarding the recovery. Quite simply it is no recovery whilst public debt spirals.

You should be better inclined towards accurate data. US public debt as a percentage of GDP is in decline.

decline ...perhaps if you rotate the chart

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/GFDEGDQ188S

What I should have said is that the Federal budget deficit as a percentage of GDP has been coming down (though still remains in deficit you will want to point out)...but there has been progress.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e7839dc4-319e-11e3-817c-00144feab7de.html?siteedition=uk#axzz2idy46hra

What progress ?

http://useconomy.about.com/od/usdebtanddeficit/a/National-Debt-by-Year.htm

Edited October 24, 2013 by churchill