GBP to THB Exchange Rate

[chiang mai]

Another piece of the economic jigsaw, the UK Land Registry report for August 2013:

http://www.landregistry.gov.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0010/57565/HPIReport20130919.pdf

Interesting to note that prices increased by 0.1% on the month for an anual change of 1.3%, this including London. I realise this will come as a shock to Daily Express readers but it is true, although it does exclude new builds and of course the data is from August, still!

[mccw]

"78% service sector" shows how susceptible the economy is to increasing cost of living / wage squeeze. As the years tick by and costs rise more than wages the service sector must suffer? Weak pound will make matters worse so makes "rebalancing" very difficult proposition.

That simply jumps out at you, 78% is insane.

take a wild guess where the lion share of these 78% are produced and by what means.

hint: location less than one sqare mile in the city of London.

And therein lies the problem, no wonder Europe wants a transaction tax.

I thought financial services is about 12% of the UK economy alone.

But 9.6% according to this off a quick google.

http://www.cityam.com/article/financial-services-firms-account-96-cent-uk-s-gdp

[chiang mai]

Yes, I'm going to backtrack slightly on my earlier post, I believed Naam was refering to UK financial services although now I'm uncertain, unless he refers to the value of trades through the UK exchanges?

[chiang mai]

Yes, I'm going to backtrack slightly on my earlier post, I believed Naam was refering to UK financial services although now I'm uncertain, unless he refers to the value of trades through the UK exchange?

On other fronts, hey "Jude" seems certain to cause a drop in GDP for the quarter, brokers and City workers seem keen to take the day off!

Edited October 28, 2013 by chiang mai

[Naam]

Yes possibly, but having just taken a look also at the BIS web site, there are so many papers and reports there that what he refers to could easily be buried, it's not a bad site to browse around if a person wants to understand better the international dynamics of banking, credit and lending.

http://www.bis.org/statistics/gli.htm

question: why does ol' Ambrose not provide a link?

[chiang mai]

Legal?

[Naam]

Yes, I'm going to backtrack slightly on my earlier post, I believed Naam was refering to UK financial services although now I'm uncertain, unless he refers to the value of trades through the UK exchanges?

the exact share of GDP by financial services is difficult to quantify. it all depends on definition. perhaps we should ask resident eggsburts (who excel in nothing but irrelevant one-liners) to enlighten us?

[chiang mai]

Yes, I'm going to backtrack slightly on my earlier post, I believed Naam was refering to UK financial services although now I'm uncertain, unless he refers to the value of trades through the UK exchanges?

the exact share of GDP by financial services is difficult to quantify. it all depends on definition. perhaps we should ask resident eggsburts (who excel in nothing but irrelevant one-liners) to enlighten us?

Please no, don't do that, I couldn't stand the monotony!

I say the answer is legal and accounting, is there a prize?

[chiang mai]

49.68 via SCB with THB stregthening.

http://www.scb.co.th/scb_api/index.jsp

[chiang mai]

Finally a public admission:

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/boes-carney-says-uk-growth-driven-housing-market-194419701--business.html#VirWIoM

LONDON (Reuters) - "Britain's economic recovery is at an early stage and is still reliant on rising house prices and consumer demand, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said in an interview on Tuesday".

Separately, I wonder what tomorrow morning will bring, THB has strengthened against the outcome of an anouncement by the Fed at 06:00GMT, the wide expectation is that there will be no change to QE, is that already reflected in the improved rate or is there more to come, 49.60 currently via SCB?

Edited October 30, 2013 by chiang mai

[chiang mai]

Consumer spending represents two thirds of GDP and BOE under reported consumer debt in September by about 50%. So whilst GDP may increase as a result, it's all down to money borrowed on credit cards and similar - that is not recovery, that's people borrowing to make ends meet and likely over extending:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/borrowing/loans/10417604/Fears-of-debt-fuelled-recovery-as-credit-card-spending-jumps-revised-BoE-data-show.html

Secondly, Treasury wants to tax profits on London real estate, talk is of capital gains imposed on foriegn owners, if sucessful it will dampen the property market for sure, most likely that it's all just talk is my guess, something to appease would be voters.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10417838/Harsh-truths-about-the-decline-of-Britain.html

Edited October 31, 2013 by chiang mai

[chiang mai]

Two readable graphs, the first shows the shift from manufacturing to servces:

The second shows the composition of services, note real estate:

[Huayrat]

No amount of graphs and talking the GBP down is not working.. still strong at 50 and not moving.. keep it up old chap its very entertaining

[chiang mai]

No amount of graphs and talking the GBP down is not working.. still strong at 50 and not moving.. keep it up old chap its very entertaining

There's nothing in those graphs that's negative, their presence is designed to inform rather than comment, just so that some folks, (you) can understand what comprises GDP and not get too excited when manufacturing posts a gain.

[kimamey]

That simply jumps out at you, 78% is insane.

take a wild guess where the lion share of these 78% are produced and by what means.

hint: location less than one sqare mile in the city of London.

And therein lies the problem, no wonder Europe wants a transaction tax.

And yet another reason that we should leave the Eurozone .

You don't say who you mean when you say 'we' but if you are referring to the UK it isn't in the eurozone.

[chiang mai]

Just for Huayrat:

Britain to have worst 2014 trade deficit in industrial world on EU forecasts

UK's burgeoning current account deficit suggests recovery is driven by credit-fuelled consumption

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

2:27PM GMT 05 Nov 2013

Britain's commercial deficit will be the highest in a quarter century next year, a sign that recovery is badly out of kilter and that the country is still living far beyond its means.

The European Commission forecasts that Britain's current account deficit -- covering both trade in goods and services -- will rise to 4.4pc of GDP in the 2014, with little improvement after that.

This is the highest deficit of any major industrial country, and far worse than the US as it moves towards energy independence. It is also the highest since the Lawson boom in 1989 when the Treasury's policy of 'shadowing' the German D-Mark at the wrong time caused the economy to overheat.

The Commission said in its Autumn Report that Britain will have the fastest-growing economy for the next two years among the major European countries, doubling its GDP growth forecast to 2.2pc in 2014 and 2.4pc in 2015. "2013 has thus far exceeded expectations and the outlook is quite bright," it said.

However, the mini-boom is being driven by a steady fall in the household savings rate, down to 6.2pc this year from 7.3pc in 2010. The Commission said it expects UK consumers to "dip into their savings" to cover spending. "The debt burden of households remains a distinct risk to private consumption."


With the exception of the late 1980s, Britain has not run a current account deficit of this magnitude since the Second World War. It raises concerns that the recovery is being fed by a premature return to bad habits of house price inflation and credit-driven spending rather than a revival of manufacturing and productive investment.

The 20pc devaluation of sterling after 2007 has had remarkably little effect on the trade balance, in contrast to comparable episodes in 1992 and 1931 where the trade gains fed though quickly.

Michael Saunders from Citigroup said the double-dip recession in Europe had the effect of smothering demand for British export and nullified most of the gains from a weaker pound, but this will diminish over time. "We're more optimistic than the Commission. In any case, it is better to have unbalanced growth no growth, given the human cost of high unemployment. GDP per capita is still 7pc of below its previous peak," he said.

Simon Ward from Henderson Global Investors said the UK is structurally unbalanced, relying heavily on imports to meet demand as confidence returns. "The supply-side of the economy is performing very poorly. The Bank of England claims there is massive overcapacity in the economy but we don't think that is correct, and the current account deficit is the evidence."

"A lot of the output before the recession was phantom. It has gone forever, and that means our capacity to produce and export is less than we thought," he said.

Mr Ward said his gauge of money supply growth -- six-month real M1 -- is surging at double-digit rates. This is a level that usually triggers inflationary booms. This time a large part of this stimulus is leaking into imports, at least so far.

The Commission said Britain still has a structural budget deficit of 5.7pc of GDP even after years of austerity, showing the sheer scale of Britain's rebalancing task. This compares to minus 1.5pc in the eurozone, minus 0.8pc in Italy, and a surplus of 0.5pc in Germany.

[FiftyTwo]

GBP still at 50.3bht, so much for the doom and gloomers.

[chiang mai]

Up a whole 30 satang, be still my beating heart!

But let's be clear, the focus of the posts in this thread over the past few months are focussed on the underlying economy that begets the exchange rate, looking at short term movements is therefore futile unless it can be proven with economic data that a firm long term trend is in place, the current uptick in GBP/THB is not supported by such economic data.

Edited November 6, 2013 by chiang mai

[Naam]

"the current uptick in GBP/THB" is caused by the uptick GBP/USD.

[Jip99]

take a wild guess where the lion share of these 78% are produced and by what means.

hint: location less than one sqare mile in the city of London.

And therein lies the problem, no wonder Europe wants a transaction tax.

And yet another reason that we should leave the Eurozone .

You don't say who you mean when you say 'we' but if you are referring to the UK it isn't in the eurozone.

Geographically it is - and that gives financial implications whether you like it or not

[chiang mai]

And therein lies the problem, no wonder Europe wants a transaction tax.

And yet another reason that we should leave the Eurozone .

You don't say who you mean when you say 'we' but if you are referring to the UK it isn't in the eurozone.

Geographically it is - and that gives financial implications whether you like it or not

Perhaps we should ask that poster what he meant by the UK not being in the Eurozone, I suspect he has currency and geography confused, but!

[FiftyTwo]

Up a whole 30 satang, be still my beating heart!

But let's be clear, the focus of the posts in this thread over the past few months are focussed on the underlying economy that begets the exchange rate, looking at short term movements is therefore futile unless it can be proven with economic data that a firm long term trend is in place, the current uptick in GBP/THB is not supported by such economic data.

For the past 2/3 months the rate has been unchanged at around 50 +-

The economic data has made no difference.

[chiang mai]

Up a whole 30 satang, be still my beating heart!

But let's be clear, the focus of the posts in this thread over the past few months are focussed on the underlying economy that begets the exchange rate, looking at short term movements is therefore futile unless it can be proven with economic data that a firm long term trend is in place, the current uptick in GBP/THB is not supported by such economic data.

For the past 2/3 months the rate has been unchanged at around 50 +-

The economic data has made no difference.

Edited November 6, 2013 by chiang mai

[Naam]

Up a whole 30 satang, be still my beating heart!

But let's be clear, the focus of the posts in this thread over the past few months are focussed on the underlying economy that begets the exchange rate, looking at short term movements is therefore futile unless it can be proven with economic data that a firm long term trend is in place, the current uptick in GBP/THB is not supported by such economic data.

For the past 2/3 months the rate has been unchanged at around 50 +-

The economic data has made no difference.

the economic data of Thailand and U.K. influences GBP/THB as much as does the daily ambient temperature in Nakhon Nowhere at noon influence that rate.

any GBP/THB fluctuations are caused by GBP/USD and THB/USD.

[chiang mai]

Up a whole 30 satang, be still my beating heart!

But let's be clear, the focus of the posts in this thread over the past few months are focussed on the underlying economy that begets the exchange rate, looking at short term movements is therefore futile unless it can be proven with economic data that a firm long term trend is in place, the current uptick in GBP/THB is not supported by such economic data.

For the past 2/3 months the rate has been unchanged at around 50 +-

The economic data has made no difference.

the economic data of Thailand and U.K. influences GBP/THB as much as does the daily ambient temperature in Nakhon Nowhere at noon influence that rate.

any GBP/THB fluctuations are caused by GBP/USD and THB/USD.

I knew at the time I should have underscored the word "unless", consider it done in retorspect - "looking at short term movements is therefore futile, "unless"...

And nobody disagrees GBP/USD is the main driver of GBP/THB, the current and future profile of the UK economy however remains an important and significant factor that will impact GBP/THB, regardless if that is via GBP/USD or any other route.

So for those unamed posters who wet their pants with excitement whenever they read the UK tabloids and learn that the UK economy has moved from strength to strength and they see a twenty of thirty satang improvement in GBP/THB as a result, this does not mean that all the structural problems in the UK economy have suddenly got better and that a rate of sixty or more is just around the corner - those problems are still there and if anything, they are growing, at least the nations debt levels are, it is in that context that economic data out of the UK is of significance to the GBP/THB discussion. But I think that most people here understood that, only two posters here appear not to and probably never will.

[FiftyTwo]

So for those unamed posters who wet their pants with excitement whenever they read the UK tabloids and learn that the UK economy has moved from strength to strength and they see a twenty of thirty satang improvement in GBP/THB as a result, this does not mean that all the structural problems in the UK economy have suddenly got better and that a rate of sixty or more is just around the corner - those problems are still there and if anything, they are growing, at least the nations debt levels are, it is in that context that economic data out of the UK is of significance to the GBP/THB discussion. But I think that most people here understood that, only two posters here appear not to and probably never will.

You are right, I don't understand how you print the same old stuff for month after month, are proven 100% wrong in your currency predictions every time, yet still have the audacity to claim I'm the one that doesn't understand.

The value of a currency is whatever the speculators say it is, the strength of an individual economy is irrelevant to this process. As nearly all the world economies are down the toilet, publishing just bad things about the UK economy will only lead to predictions that will always be wrong, as you have so admirably demonstrated and continue to demonstrate.

Edited November 7, 2013 by FiftyTwo

[chiang mai]

So for those unamed posters who wet their pants with excitement whenever they read the UK tabloids and learn that the UK economy has moved from strength to strength and they see a twenty of thirty satang improvement in GBP/THB as a result, this does not mean that all the structural problems in the UK economy have suddenly got better and that a rate of sixty or more is just around the corner - those problems are still there and if anything, they are growing, at least the nations debt levels are, it is in that context that economic data out of the UK is of significance to the GBP/THB discussion. But I think that most people here understood that, only two posters here appear not to and probably never will.

You are right, I don't understand how you print the same old stuff for month after month, are proven 100% wrong in your currency predictions every time, yet still have the audacity to claim I'm the one that doesn't understand.

The value of a currency is whatever the speculators say it is, the strength of an individual economy is irrelevant to this process. As nearly all the world economies are down the toilet, publishing just bad things about the UK economy will only lead to predictions that will always be wrong, as you have so admirably demonstrated and continue to demonstrate.

You mean like this one:

"It's because the BoT has been supporting the baht, then they get a bit scared about how much they are spending, stop supporting it, and the the Baht does a quick fall. Wash and repeat as required until the bottom drops out of the Baht and it goes to 70/GBP overnight".

And talking of not understanding, actually that was your post!

But let's examine your statement that currencies will always be what the speculators want it to be, how do speculators do that with a currency such as THB, one that is restricted so much?

And how do you account for the strengthening of THB against USD from 44 to 30, was that speculators and is it speculators who are keeping it there? Or was it something to do with economies!

Edited November 7, 2013 by chiang mai

[FiftyTwo]

And how do you account for the strengthening of THB against USD from 44 to 30, was that speculators and is it speculators who are keeping it there? Or was it something to do with economies!

If you think the GBP is so hopeless and the Thai BHT is so strong a currency, why haven't you moved all your GPB into THB?

I think the opposite, and I keep all my money in GBP, with enough for one year in THP. So my money is firmly where my mouth is. So far in the last 5 years I have lost 4%, 5 years ago 52bht/gbp, today 50bht/gbp. More than 5 years ago, don't care, wasn't here.

Edited November 7, 2013 by FiftyTwo

[chiang mai]

And how do you account for the strengthening of THB against USD from 44 to 30, was that speculators and is it speculators who are keeping it there? Or was it something to do with economies!

If you think the GBP is so hopeless and the Thai BHT is so strong a currency, why haven't you moved all your GPB into THB?

I think the opposite, and I keep all my money in GBP, with enough for one year in THP. So my money is firmly where my mouth is. So far in the last 5 years I have lost 4%, 5 years ago 52bht/gbp, today 50bht/gbp. More than 5 years ago, don't care, wasn't here.

You didn't answer my questions, again!

But you still don't get it do you, one more time, my interest is in the underlying economies, not about the exchange rate at some point in time, is that clear enough now?

And to answer your question: as mentioned several times previously in this thread, half my assets are in THB and half are in GBP, that way I wont have to worry about what the rate might or might not be in one years time, only in ten years time.

[mccw]

Based on the fundamentals I see GBP dropping back towards 40 or lower. When exactly I don't care. But I think its a good enough chance that I am keeping gbp debt and buying THB assets rather than clear it. When next substantial drop I may start to clear the debt and so having at least 20% less I reckon to pay back. Also my returns here are more % PA than the debt service cost so makes better sense even if the exchange rate stays around 50 or moves the other way a bit.

Also keeping a cash reserve in the form of gold in case bht and pound drop significantly together and looking to get in to alternative currency income in some way, still researching but that's another thread topic maybe.

So- Money where my mouth is says gbp will drop at the next down turn in the cycle (the cycle is an inevitable fact), probably substantially because of a need for further QE at that time to support the still fragile banks and debt laden system.

2years, 5years, I don't know, but its coming I am sure. Not rushed for the event to occur and the short term ticking around 50 has no influence on my view of the fundamentals.

On up tick to 50 from 43-45 I took opportunity to move three quarters of net worth out of sterling.

I still have not insignificant sterling income so am quite happy for the exchange rate to stay where it is btw but have positioned due to my views formed by and based on the data how I see it. Ie Developed bht income rather than pay off £ debt and been 100% to some £ short term fantasy.

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