GBP to THB Exchange Rate

[mccw]

The talk about the economies, and wider, was much more interesting. Any idiot can look up the exchange rate every day on the web; What's the point in posting the updates here with nothing else of value?

Snore.

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[Huayrat]

The talk about the economies, and wider, was much more interesting. Any idiot can look up the exchange rate every day on the web; What's the point in posting the updates here with nothing else of value?

Snore.

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It was boring... Council tax rises and carpet companies closing down is a crock of <deleted>.. As if a carpet company closing down will effect the rate.. All you have to do is look at the mess that Thailand is in right now to know what's going to happen to the Thai Baht.. For the next 6 months investors are going to be thinking if that amnesty bill will be brought back in.. And if it is there will be war in bangkok..

[mccw]

Your obviously incapable of comprehending a bigger picture than that of individual posts.

With such a limited brain capacity your economic commentary holds about as much weight as one of Naams dog's Luke warm farts

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[chiang mai]

One more piece of evidence, this from the BOE rate setters!:

"Sterling is too strong and must weaken if Britain is to secure a balanced recovery, one of the Bank of England’s policymakers warned on Friday.

Martin Weale, an external member of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), said that while the pound’s recent strength had helped to ease the cost of living, he remained uncomfortable with its current value.

“The recent rise in sterling has, of course, helped [lower inflation],” Mr Weale said in a speech in London. “But I cannot say I feel comfortable with it. It only worsens my concerns about the balance of payments.”

The UK’s current account deficit is on course to hit a 25-year high next year, making it the worst of any major industrial country. A strong pound has helped drive the deficit, by making British exports unattractive, while fuelling imports of cheaper goods from abroad.

Marian Bell, a member of the MPC between 2002 and 2005, agreed the pound was overvalued. “Sterling has come down a lot since 2007, but it’s at the top of the range it’s been trading in for the last four years, and that’s eroded most of gains we’ve seen in competitivness,” she said."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10452461/Bank-of-England-hawk-Martin-Weale-warns-on-strong-pound.html

[FiftyTwo]

By way of thread entertainment for the evening I'm going to call my withdrawl from this thread, not because I now feel differently about the subject matter but because much of the "companionship" here has become, tiresome, troubling, I don't know, worrisome I suppose is the best way I can describe it.

We lived in hope, short lived hope.

[Bluemoon66]

I don't think i've ever read more anti GBP posts than what chiang mai and mccw posts . . . . . and they are Brits!!

I think they are both trying to justify the THB strengh v GBP for different reasons.

My view of the GBP (for what it's worth) is that against the USD it is over valued - once QE is removed in the US i think that 1.55 is more a realistic figure and probably 33/34THB to the USD. I feel that the GBP will remain around the 50/51 mark.

[Naam]

Your obviously incapable of comprehending a bigger picture than that of individual posts.

With such a limited brain capacity your economic commentary holds about as much weight as one of Naams dog's Luke warm farts

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it doesn't happen often but when the small male farts it does not feel "lukewarm"

[chiang mai]

I don't think i've ever read more anti GBP posts than what chiang mai and mccw posts . . . . . and they are Brits!!

I think they are both trying to justify the THB strengh v GBP for different reasons.

My view of the GBP (for what it's worth) is that against the USD it is over valued - once QE is removed in the US i think that 1.55 is more a realistic figure and probably 33/34THB to the USD. I feel that the GBP will remain around the 50/51 mark.

You confuse patriotism with an emotion free assessment of the economy, it is possible to be both very patriotic yet highly skeptical about the future of the UK economy since they are not mutually exclusive.

[CharlieH]

So, hows the guesswork going ? Nearly hit 51 Friday, is it going to get there early next week or are we going to see a fall back to around 50.4 ? I suspect the latter, based on absoluteky nothing as I know absolutely squat about forex.

C'mon give me a break , atleast I'm honest and dont pretend to know ! ?.......ok, 3...2...1....pounce!

[chiang mai]

So, hows the guesswork going ? Nearly hit 51 Friday, is it going to get there early next week or are we going to see a fall back to around 50.4 ? I suspect the latter, based on absoluteky nothing as I know absolutely squat about forex.

C'mon give me a break , atleast I'm honest and dont pretend to know ! ?.......ok, 3...2...1....pounce!

And we don't pretend to know what it's going to do next week either although your guess seems as good as any right now - consider yourself pounced!.

[FiftyTwo]

I don't think i've ever read more anti GBP posts than what chiang mai and mccw posts . . . . . and they are Brits!!

I think they are both trying to justify the THB strengh v GBP for different reasons.

My view of the GBP (for what it's worth) is that against the USD it is over valued - once QE is removed in the US i think that 1.55 is more a realistic figure and probably 33/34THB to the USD. I feel that the GBP will remain around the 50/51 mark.

Yes, I get a bit fed up with an agenda that is entirely one sided British bashing.

Thought it was against forum rules.

How about being a bit more balanced and having a Thai economy in trouble post occasionally to prove you ain't just trolling.

[mccw]

I don't think i've ever read more anti GBP posts than what chiang mai and mccw posts . . . . . and they are Brits!!

I think they are both trying to justify the THB strengh v GBP for different reasons.

My view of the GBP (for what it's worth) is that against the USD it is over valued - once QE is removed in the US i think that 1.55 is more a realistic figure and probably 33/34THB to the USD. I feel that the GBP will remain around the 50/51 mark.

Yes, I get a bit fed up with an agenda that is entirely one sided British bashing.

Thought it was against forum rules.

How about being a bit more balanced and having a Thai economy in trouble post occasionally to prove you ain't just trolling.

Why don't you provide the links if that's your opinion?

My view on the Thai future is that it has decades of growth ahead of it, but will be subject to cycles naturally. However since the debt to GDP is so low they can afford to borrow and invest to prevent serious stagflation like UK is now experiencing.

Further Thai banks are well capitalised at 8-20% compared to the uk not even 1%.

All this has been covered previously with links provided so not felt the need to keep on about it. If something that was relevant did come up then of post it or welcome the contribution if it came from else where. But I haven't seen anything that affects the long term view.

Consumer debt might be a little high or the condo market a bit over supplied but nothing too serious in my view seeing as how high the banks cap rate is I don't think it would cause a bail out / collapse scenario like US EU suffered (and are still susceptible to- ie low capped banks and the market only propped up by low rates and money printing/ direct gov purchases mortgage back securities or underwriting 20% of home loans like under "help to buy scheme" - compare that to Thais borrowing at 7-12% ! Plenty space for rates to go lower if needs be to simulate market/ alleviate the repayments burden; practically no space left in UK at 0.5%)

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[chiang mai]

It's actually quite difficult to find sensible articles to post on the subject of the Thai economy, the articles I see are either pure propaganda that are not worth posting because they are so obviously written for a purpose, or, they're worth posting but put forum rules prevent us from doing so (I've already received one warning because of this and am not keen to get a second).

But the earlier description of the Thai economy seems about right to me, albeit the shenanigans in Bangkok currently will hurt GDP, things will settle down before too long and folks should remember the country's been down this road several times previously.

The big question for me is how will the UK manage inflation/growth vs interest rates, any increase in rates will make for a stronger Pound and a worsening deficit - yet no increase risks inflation, I don't know how they can address that imbalance other than through devaluation. Putting my money where my mouth is I am reducing my GBP allocation from 50% to nearer 25%.

[Ticker2000]

It's actually quite difficult to find sensible articles to post on the subject of the Thai economy, the articles I see are either pure propaganda that are not worth posting because they are so obviously written for a purpose, or, they're worth posting but put forum rules prevent us from doing so (I've already received one warning because of this and am not keen to get a second).

But the earlier description of the Thai economy seems about right to me, albeit the shenanigans in Bangkok currently will hurt GDP, things will settle down before too long and folks should remember the country's been down this road several times previously.

The big question for me is how will the UK manage inflation/growth vs interest rates, any increase in rates will make for a stronger Pound and a worsening deficit - yet no increase risks inflation, I don't know how they can address that imbalance other than through devaluation. Putting my money where my mouth is I am reducing my GBP allocation from 50% to nearer 25%.

Chiang Mai

Flounce over and back to biz - good to see.

Research how mature western economies historically deal with the end game of recessions (through political motives). You will find that increasing % rates is the last thing they do even if all economic indicators indicate that a rise is due. Inflating the debt away has always been the first choice.

[mccw]

On the above "like" by fiftytwo. You are aware that "inflating the debt away" is equal to a devaluing pound? The exact opposite of what you have been claiming.

Or was just the passing use of the word "flounce" that u liked, haha

Anyway.

Here is a piece from sky news app; Positive for the UK, but one could conjecture that a the costs to exact act/ labour etc would be less with a weaker pound and the exports of oil help the balance of trade- so this is just the kind of resulting investment the gov would want to attract going forward and a reason in support of a weak pound policy:

"""

The Government has given the green light for oil firm EnQuest to invest £4bn in a North Sea oil field scheme that will support an estimated 20,000 jobs.

EnQuest said that it would plough the investment into the Kraken oil field east of the Shetland Islands, which lie north of the Scottish mainland.

The plans have been approved by the Department of Energy and Climate Change and welcomed by Chancellor George Osborne.

Aberdeen-based EnQuest added that the development will support 20,000 jobs in Britain during construction and an average of around 1,000 jobs for each year of Kraken's life.""""

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[chiang mai]

The link between recessions and inflation is not 100% hence it's not a clear cut rule that it must happen.

[mccw]

I think he was referring to inflating away national debts rather than inflation accompanying every recession.

Can you find a chart for that?

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[chiang mai]

I think he was referring to inflating away national debts rather than inflation accompanying every recession.

Can you find a chart for that?

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Bbbbbut, inflating away the national debt would require higher rates of interest, some good reasons why not here: http://www.economist.com/blogs/buttonwood/2011/06/escaping-debt-crisis

And if anyone wants to go to the trouble of overlaying the following graph, onto the one above, the picture should be more clear.

[chiang mai]

Finally found something that explains reasonably well although higher interest rates remain a feature of that approach:

http://monevator.com/a-history-of-uk-inflation/

[mccw]

If inflation is the policy aim then interest rates would be kept low to help achieve that. Interest rates would only rise when they wish to reign in inflation.

Interest rates can not rise significantly; because of the debt levels it would ruin the country, they know this, that's why they have been dropping interest rates all the way to where we are now. All the chat of rate rises and return to an ill defined pre crash "normal" is just a smoke screen to keep people faith in money's value, same over in US with the taper talk. They dimple can't afford not to be doing what they are currently doing.

My crystal balls say that super low rates is the new normal and will be the policy for a long time to come (5-20years at least)- unless the currency actually collapses and a reset takes place.

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[Jip99]

If inflation is the policy aim then interest rates would be kept low to help achieve that. Interest rates would only rise when they wish to reign in inflation.

Interest rates can not rise significantly; because of the debt levels it would ruin the country, they know this, that's why they have been dropping interest rates all the way to where we are now. All the chat of rate rises and return to an ill defined pre crash "normal" is just a smoke screen to keep people faith in money's value, same over in US with the taper talk. They dimple can't afford not to be doing what they are currently doing.

My crystal balls say that super low rates is the new normal and will be the policy for a long time to come (5-20years at least)- unless the currency actually collapses and a reset takes place.

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I agree entirely.

Interest rates are managed to an artificially low level for the reasons cited above.

As time passes, the 'historical norm' becomes lower and lower - to the point of being acceptable as a monetary policy tool.

Simple fact - the UK recovery cannot afford interest rate rises.............. yet.

[chiang mai]

That's fine as a principle although the UK has never managed "that low for that long" ever before so it's really uncharted waters, the negative I can think of immediately is the inability of banks to attract deposits hence future lending becomes constrained.

[Jip99]

That's fine as a principle although the UK has never managed "that low for that long" ever before so it's really uncharted waters, the negative I can think of immediately is the inability of banks to attract deposits hence future lending becomes constrained.

It can't be any more constrained than it has been over the last 5 years.

Capital adequacy, rather than absolute deposits, together with individual bank policy will determine availability of credit. That, of course, together with demand - which has been declining as many business learn to deal without dependency on banks. Using your own cash/investment money gives you absolute control and reduces costs - borrowing from a bank does not.

[chiang mai]

Well there we have it, we've tried to argue the UK's corner on this point but the overwhelming consensus is that UK rates aren't capable of being increased in the short to medium term. That being true there's no case to be made in favour of a stronger Pound, based solely on the BOE lending rate, if anything the obverse might be true.

[FiftyTwo]

The higher the interest rate, the higher the inflation.

Low interest rates are to keep home owners with loans wage slaves forever.

Low interest rates are to create and maintain a desperate and easily manipulated work force.

Edited November 17, 2013 by FiftyTwo

[churchill]

' but the overwhelming consensus is that UK rates aren't capable of being increased in the short to medium term.'

nor in the EU or US ? so leaving Asia's currencies to rise ...

Secular Stagnation, Coalmines, Bubbles, and Larry Summers

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/11/16/secular-stagnation-coalmines-bubbles-and-larry-summers/?_r=0

[chiang mai]

The following might help some readers/posters understand the GBP/THB debate better: What Makes Forex Rates Move?

The value of currencies around the world fluctuates now and then due to various forces that affect it. As they fluctuate the exchange or interest rates follow suit and our forex investments are affected. This is because forex rates are the price with which we exchange various currencies with, and profit or lose in the process.

The various forces that affect currencies and their forex rates are economic development, political stability, mass unrest, unemployment, labor, real estate, national debt of the currency host country, trade gains or deficits, gold and oil price fluctuations, and many others. Sometimes, even climate change can be a factor.

The gross domestic product, or GDP, of the host country of a currency is also a factor. If the GDP is too slow grinding general unrest may soon pester that country, eventually triggering trade shortfalls or deficit. This would later translate to the currency's weakness against other currencies and, later forex rates would change. This process can sometimes happen in a blink of an eye.

Let's look at oil prices, for instance. When the world market decides to up the value or price of oil, oil net exporter countries will definitely have their currencies also increasing in strength. Thus, the accompanying change in forex rates. Net exporter countries dealing in major world exports like oil often have their currencies strong.

However, if a country is a net exporter of a minor or non-essential world export like handicrafts or a certain food item, its currency is just slightly affected and no major currency strengthening happens to effect a major change in forex rates. Thus, to have a powerful move in forex rates in a country's favor there must also be a major shift in industries. Net exporters of oil will always have a strong currency compared to net exporters of handicrafts.

Trade deficit being among the major influences in the strength of a currency, and therefore of forex rates, we need to know more about balance of trade. When a country has too many imports than its exports then there's an imbalance of trade which results to a weak currency. A country may have strong exports of a commodity and strong import of another one. So we should refer to the total or overall exports.

Forex rates depend on the strength of currencies. And the strength of currencies depends on what affects the economy of their host countries. Hence, trade is always the key. Whether there is political or economic instability, everything results to an affected trade.

[churchill]

The following might help some readers/posters understand the GBP/THB debate better: What Makes Forex Rates Move?

The value of currencies around the world fluctuates now and then due to various forces that affect it. As they fluctuate the exchange or interest rates follow suit and our forex investments are affected. This is because forex rates are the price with which we exchange various currencies with, and profit or lose in the process.

The various forces that affect currencies and their forex rates are economic development, political stability, mass unrest, unemployment, labor, real estate, national debt of the currency host country, trade gains or deficits, gold and oil price fluctuations, and many others. Sometimes, even climate change can be a factor.

The gross domestic product, or GDP, of the host country of a currency is also a factor. If the GDP is too slow grinding general unrest may soon pester that country, eventually triggering trade shortfalls or deficit. This would later translate to the currency's weakness against other currencies and, later forex rates would change. This process can sometimes happen in a blink of an eye.

Let's look at oil prices, for instance. When the world market decides to up the value or price of oil, oil net exporter countries will definitely have their currencies also increasing in strength. Thus, the accompanying change in forex rates. Net exporter countries dealing in major world exports like oil often have their currencies strong.

However, if a country is a net exporter of a minor or non-essential world export like handicrafts or a certain food item, its currency is just slightly affected and no major currency strengthening happens to effect a major change in forex rates. Thus, to have a powerful move in forex rates in a country's favor there must also be a major shift in industries. Net exporters of oil will always have a strong currency compared to net exporters of handicrafts.

Trade deficit being among the major influences in the strength of a currency, and therefore of forex rates, we need to know more about balance of trade. When a country has too many imports than its exports then there's an imbalance of trade which results to a weak currency. A country may have strong exports of a commodity and strong import of another one. So we should refer to the total or overall exports.

Forex rates depend on the strength of currencies. And the strength of currencies depends on what affects the economy of their host countries. Hence, trade is always the key. Whether there is political or economic instability, everything results to an affected trade.

http://www.lilleplacefinanciere.com/what-makes-forex-rates.html

[chiang mai]

Apologies, got so carried away with my underlining that I forgot the link.

[mccw]

The higher the interest rate, the higher the inflation.

Low interest rates are to keep home owners with loans wage slaves forever.

Low interest rates are to create and maintain a desperate and easily manipulated work force.

High interest rates is not a cause of inflation; they are a policy response to it!

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