What's Up With The Thai Baht?

[JDGRUEN]

http://en.wikipedia....d_exchange_rate

http://en.wikipedia....i/Dollarization <-- lists countries who's currencies are pegged to the USD (and other currencies)

17 currencies pegged to the US dollar.

http://matadornetwor...-the-us-dollar/

And the others 'Float'

[JDGRUEN]

http://en.wikipedia....d_exchange_rate

http://en.wikipedia....i/Dollarization <-- lists countries who's currencies are pegged to the USD (and other currencies)

http://en.wikipedia....d_exchange_rate

http://en.wikipedia....i/Dollarization <-- lists countries who's currencies are pegged to the USD (and other currencies)

'Dollarization' is not the same thing as being pegged to the dollar... It is using the USD within a country alongside the country's own currency

[GAS]

Buy land in Thailand? Are you Thai?

In Laos, where it's actually allowed (within certain limits).

Or like in America where you can only rent it from the government.

Edited February 17, 2013 by GAS

[chiangmaikelly]

Buy land in Thailand? Are you Thai?

In Laos, where it's actually allowed (within certain limits).

Or like in America where you can only rent it from the government.

Another nonsense post. 1. Florida Homestead law. 2. Where in the world is there not a property tax? 3. How would one pay for services related to land use? Every country has a right to your land if it really needs it. Get real!!!!

[Naam]

Buy land in Thailand? Are you Thai?

In Laos, where it's actually allowed (within certain limits).

Or like in America where you can only rent it from the government.

Another nonsense post. 1. Florida Homestead law. 2. Where in the world is there not a property tax? 3. How would one pay for services related to land use? Every country has a right to your land if it really needs it. Get real!!!!

no property tax in Thailand.

[chiangmaikelly]

no property tax in Thailand.

THAILAND PROPERTY TAXES Transfer fee 2% of the registered value of the property

Stamp Duty 0.5% of registered value. Only payable if exempt from business tax

Withholding tax 1% of the appraised value of the property

Business tax 3.3% of the appraised value of the property if selling within 5 years. This applies to both individuals and companies.

Edited February 18, 2013 by chiangmaikelly

[chiang mai]

Those are sales or transfer taxes, not property taxes per se.

[chiangmaikelly]

Those are sales or transfer taxes, not property taxes per se.

Ya, I know. I googled Thailand property taxes and that's what I got.

[connda]

I originally started this thread thinking that the major currencies were the only currencies taking a hit in comparison to the Thai baht. My reasoning was that I thought that this was a sign that Western currencies were weakening globally (which is somewhat true depending on your perspective).

I sat down this morning and compared global currency pairs to the THB over a period of two to five years. The Thai Baht has strengthen over time against virtually all currencies with the exception of the Australian and New Zealand Dollars, Philippine Peso, and the Singapore Dollar (although over the last few month many of these are weakening). The Taiwan Dollar, Swedish Krona, and the Norwegian Krone have stayed about par (although I might have missed a couple of others). Virtually everything else has taken a hit against the Thai Baht from their five year highs.

USD about -19%; GBP about 22%; EUR about 27%

So money is flowing into Thailand. Wonder how long it takes to get back to reality?

[warapa]

1.cost of living going up more than interest.

2.gold price going up never less than cost of living.

[sparkey]

When I first came to Thailand 20 years ago the Can $ was worth 20 Baht.

5 years ago it was worth 34.

Now it is worth 30.

Notice any predictable pattern?

No, nor do I.

No one can tell you which way a currency will go against any other currency (except maybe Zimbabwe).

35 years ago gold went to $900 an ounce.

Then it dropped to $200 an ounce.

Today? $1700.

Notice a pattern?

No nor do I.

Is there any point to this post?

Yes - life is unpredictable. Don't expect otherwise.

Forecasting currency fluctuations mid or long term is indeed difficult - if not actually impossible - because there are so many unpredictable factors which can upset the fiscal apple cart. However, in the short term, approaching economic storms can be readily identified and appropriate action taken.

A case in point is the probability of a severe reduction in the purchasing power of the pound against the baht - and just about every other currency (except the monopoly money of Mr Bugame) is a case in point.

Let's look at some salient facts.

Successive Thai governments have taken a number of sensible steps to strengthen the economy and prevent a repetition of the run on the baht which brought the country to its knees in 1997. The country's exports are booming despite the relatively high baht, the balance of payments situation is healthy and foreign currency reserves are deep.

Forecasts in relation to tourism and exports remain high and international and domestic confidence in the Thai economy is reflected by the amount of inward investment by foreign companies and the pace of infrastructure, new housing and other construction development unfolding across the country.

Where I live in Cha Am, as an anecdotal example, virtually every scrap of land is being eagerly snapped up by developers. The government is earmarking huge sums to expand facilities here and in the the already much larger neighbouring city of Hua Hin an upsurge in Asian tourism resulting from the relentless economic rise of the East.

Now Britain's profile: Deep in debt (eqivalent to 900 per cent of the economy) and getting in deeper every day, with no chance of being back into the black for at least another five years - if then. Saddled with an inept government which is stifling economic growth while simultaneously alienating the European Union partners it needs most for trade and financial support. Facing growing unemployment and ever higher inflation no amount of Whitehall figure juggling can disguise from an increasingly disenchanted public.

The latest (January) currency forecast from HSBC, one of the world's biggest banks, states bluntly that the UK's "fiscal credibility is under threat" and "a sovereign downgrade looms". Now that America has stepped back from its fiscal cliff and Europe has diminished fears of a break-up, it declares uniquivocally, "Britain has lost the Contest of the Uglies".

All the wishful expat thinking in the world won't change the fact that the pound has been living on borrowed time for at least a year, courtesy of its ill-deserved and ludicrous triple-A rating. ( If ever there was a triumph of optimism over reality it was the illusion that HMS Britannia wasn't actually sinking - despite even the deckchairs being under water).

The truth has finally become too obvious for even the devious and thoroughly discredited ratings agencies to ignore. Britain is facing a status downgrade which will sharply raise the nation's borrowing costs and send the already unscaleable debt mountain soaring to Olympian heights. The sequel is widely predicted to be a devaluation of the pound of the kind not seen since since the suffering Seventies.

You don't have to take my word for it, or even that of the experts at HSBC, who should know what they are talking about. Plenty of other respected market watchers out there have been predicting sterling's fall from its unwarranted pedestal for months now. Earlier this month, a MoneyWeek special headlined The End of Britain warned that the entire British economy was on the verge of collapse.

If HSBC, MoneyWeek and the other usually reliable crystal gazers are right, the likelihood is that pound's recent plummet against the Thai baht is no mere hiccup, but rather the prelude to a mighty belch which will leave a lot of us expats - particularly pensioner retirees on fixed incomes - struggling to make ends meet.

Don't expect to get the bad news from the horse's mouth. George Osborne and the Governor of the Bank of England are not going to announce the devaluation of the pound in advance, for obvious reasons. They'll steal the value of our money away by stealth, closing the high street banks for a holiday or some other pretext. By the time they reopen the dastardly deed will have been done.

Is there anything one can do to protect oneself? Not much if your income is a pension or salary is paid in pounds. But it is still not too late to move any savings out of sterling and into a less vulnerable currency - Aussie dollars for instance, which are still, for the moment, holding up well against the baht - or another kind of investment entirely.

UK subjects who are resident in Thailand for tax purposes can, of course, transfer their pounds to a Thai bank and have them converted into baht, though there are limits on how much can be shipped in this way.

I am not an expert on financial matters or currency fluctuation, any more than are many of the posters to this particular forum. But the evidence for an imminent devaluation of sterling is hard to resist.

I would strongly advise anybody who feels I am pressing the alarm button unjustifiably to do their own research. Oh, please do please let me know if I am wrong. I shall be greatly relieved!

[sparkey]

When I first came to Thailand 20 years ago the Can $ was worth 20 Baht.

5 years ago it was worth 34.

Now it is worth 30.

Notice any predictable pattern?

No, nor do I.

No one can tell you which way a currency will go against any other currency (except maybe Zimbabwe).

35 years ago gold went to $900 an ounce.

Then it dropped to $200 an ounce.

Today? $1700.

Notice a pattern?

No nor do I.

Is there any point to this post?

Yes - life is unpredictable. Don't expect otherwise.

Forecasting currency fluctuations mid or long term is indeed difficult - if not actually impossible - because there are so many unpredictable factors which can upset the fiscal apple cart. However, in the short term, approaching economic storms can be readily identified and appropriate action taken.

A case in point is the probability of a severe reduction in the purchasing power of the pound against the baht - and just about every other currency (except the monopoly money of Mr Bugame) is a case in point.

Let's look at some salient facts.

Successive Thai governments have taken a number of sensible steps to strengthen the economy and prevent a repetition of the run on the baht which brought the country to its knees in 1997. The country's exports are booming despite the relatively high baht, the balance of payments situation is healthy and foreign currency reserves are deep.

Forecasts in relation to tourism and exports remain high and international and domestic confidence in the Thai economy is reflected by the amount of inward investment by foreign companies and the pace of infrastructure, new housing and other construction development unfolding across the country.

Where I live in Cha Am, as an anecdotal example, virtually every scrap of land is being eagerly snapped up by developers. The government is earmarking huge sums to expand facilities here and in the the already much larger neighbouring city of Hua Hin an upsurge in Asian tourism resulting from the relentless economic rise of the East.

Now Britain's profile: Deep in debt (eqivalent to 900 per cent of the economy) and getting in deeper every day, with no chance of being back into the black for at least another five years - if then. Saddled with an inept government which is stifling economic growth while simultaneously alienating the European Union partners it needs most for trade and financial support. Facing growing unemployment and ever higher inflation no amount of Whitehall figure juggling can disguise from an increasingly disenchanted public.

The latest (January) currency forecast from HSBC, one of the world's biggest banks, states bluntly that the UK's "fiscal credibility is under threat" and "a sovereign downgrade looms". Now that America has stepped back from its fiscal cliff and Europe has diminished fears of a break-up, it declares uniquivocally, "Britain has lost the Contest of the Uglies".

All the wishful expat thinking in the world won't change the fact that the pound has been living on borrowed time for at least a year, courtesy of its ill-deserved and ludicrous triple-A rating. ( If ever there was a triumph of optimism over reality it was the illusion that HMS Britannia wasn't actually sinking - despite even the deckchairs being under water).

The truth has finally become too obvious for even the devious and thoroughly discredited ratings agencies to ignore. Britain is facing a status downgrade which will sharply raise the nation's borrowing costs and send the already unscaleable debt mountain soaring to Olympian heights. The sequel is widely predicted to be a devaluation of the pound of the kind not seen since since the suffering Seventies.

You don't have to take my word for it, or even that of the experts at HSBC, who should know what they are talking about. Plenty of other respected market watchers out there have been predicting sterling's fall from its unwarranted pedestal for months now. Earlier this month, a MoneyWeek special headlined The End of Britain warned that the entire British economy was on the verge of collapse.

If HSBC, MoneyWeek and the other usually reliable crystal gazers are right, the likelihood is that pound's recent plummet against the Thai baht is no mere hiccup, but rather the prelude to a mighty belch which will leave a lot of us expats - particularly pensioner retirees on fixed incomes - struggling to make ends meet.

Don't expect to get the bad news from the horse's mouth. George Osborne and the Governor of the Bank of England are not going to announce the devaluation of the pound in advance, for obvious reasons. They'll steal the value of our money away by stealth, closing the high street banks for a holiday or some other pretext. By the time they reopen the dastardly deed will have been done.

Is there anything one can do to protect oneself? Not much if your income is a pension or salary is paid in pounds. But it is still not too late to move any savings out of sterling and into a less vulnerable currency - Aussie dollars for instance, which are still, for the moment, holding up well against the baht - or another kind of investment entirely.

UK subjects who are resident in Thailand for tax purposes can, of course, transfer their pounds to a Thai bank and have them converted into baht, though there are limits on how much can be shipped in this way.

I am not an expert on financial matters or currency fluctuation, any more than are many of the posters to this particular forum. But the evidence for an imminent devaluation of sterling is hard to resist.

I would strongly advise anybody who feels I am pressing the alarm button unjustifiably to do their own research. Oh, please do please let me know if I am wrong. I shall be greatly relieved!

[Sandman77]

Yesterday I read Japanese note bank print and double the number of bank notes the yen will go more down!

And why the thai banks not weaken the bath again like 2 month before to protect exports and poor tourists?

[meatboy]

When I first came to Thailand 20 years ago the Can $ was worth 20 Baht.

5 years ago it was worth 34.

Now it is worth 30.

Notice any predictable pattern?

No, nor do I.

No one can tell you which way a currency will go against any other currency (except maybe Zimbabwe).

35 years ago gold went to $900 an ounce.

Then it dropped to $200 an ounce.

Today? $1700.

Notice a pattern?

No nor do I.

Is there any point to this post?

Yes - life is unpredictable. Don't expect otherwise.

Forecasting currency fluctuations mid or long term is indeed difficult - if not actually impossible - because there are so many unpredictable factors which can upset the fiscal apple cart. However, in the short term, approaching economic storms can be readily identified and appropriate action taken.

A case in point is the probability of a severe reduction in the purchasing power of the pound against the baht - and just about every other currency (except the monopoly money of Mr Bugame) is a case in point.

Let's look at some salient facts.

Successive Thai governments have taken a number of sensible steps to strengthen the economy and prevent a repetition of the run on the baht which brought the country to its knees in 1997. The country's exports are booming despite the relatively high baht, the balance of payments situation is healthy and foreign currency reserves are deep.

Forecasts in relation to tourism and exports remain high and international and domestic confidence in the Thai economy is reflected by the amount of inward investment by foreign companies and the pace of infrastructure, new housing and other construction development unfolding across the country.

Where I live in Cha Am, as an anecdotal example, virtually every scrap of land is being eagerly snapped up by developers. The government is earmarking huge sums to expand facilities here and in the the already much larger neighbouring city of Hua Hin an upsurge in Asian tourism resulting from the relentless economic rise of the East.

Now Britain's profile: Deep in debt (eqivalent to 900 per cent of the economy) and getting in deeper every day, with no chance of being back into the black for at least another five years - if then. Saddled with an inept government which is stifling economic growth while simultaneously alienating the European Union partners it needs most for trade and financial support. Facing growing unemployment and ever higher inflation no amount of Whitehall figure juggling can disguise from an increasingly disenchanted public.

The latest (January) currency forecast from HSBC, one of the world's biggest banks, states bluntly that the UK's "fiscal credibility is under threat" and "a sovereign downgrade looms". Now that America has stepped back from its fiscal cliff and Europe has diminished fears of a break-up, it declares uniquivocally, "Britain has lost the Contest of the Uglies".

All the wishful expat thinking in the world won't change the fact that the pound has been living on borrowed time for at least a year, courtesy of its ill-deserved and ludicrous triple-A rating. ( If ever there was a triumph of optimism over reality it was the illusion that HMS Britannia wasn't actually sinking - despite even the deckchairs being under water).

The truth has finally become too obvious for even the devious and thoroughly discredited ratings agencies to ignore. Britain is facing a status downgrade which will sharply raise the nation's borrowing costs and send the already unscaleable debt mountain soaring to Olympian heights. The sequel is widely predicted to be a devaluation of the pound of the kind not seen since since the suffering Seventies.

You don't have to take my word for it, or even that of the experts at HSBC, who should know what they are talking about. Plenty of other respected market watchers out there have been predicting sterling's fall from its unwarranted pedestal for months now. Earlier this month, a MoneyWeek special headlined The End of Britain warned that the entire British economy was on the verge of collapse.

If HSBC, MoneyWeek and the other usually reliable crystal gazers are right, the likelihood is that pound's recent plummet against the Thai baht is no mere hiccup, but rather the prelude to a mighty belch which will leave a lot of us expats - particularly pensioner retirees on fixed incomes - struggling to make ends meet.

Don't expect to get the bad news from the horse's mouth. George Osborne and the Governor of the Bank of England are not going to announce the devaluation of the pound in advance, for obvious reasons. They'll steal the value of our money away by stealth, closing the high street banks for a holiday or some other pretext. By the time they reopen the dastardly deed will have been done.

Is there anything one can do to protect oneself? Not much if your income is a pension or salary is paid in pounds. But it is still not too late to move any savings out of sterling and into a less vulnerable currency - Aussie dollars for instance, which are still, for the moment, holding up well against the baht - or another kind of investment entirely.

UK subjects who are resident in Thailand for tax purposes can, of course, transfer their pounds to a Thai bank and have them converted into baht, though there are limits on how much can be shipped in this way.

I am not an expert on financial matters or currency fluctuation, any more than are many of the posters to this particular forum. But the evidence for an imminent devaluation of sterling is hard to resist.

I would strongly advise anybody who feels I am pressing the alarm button unjustifiably to do their own research. Oh, please do please let me know if I am wrong. I shall be greatly relieved!

cant see nostradamus is predicting this,lets hope gordon brown does not make a comeback,i have nothing to worry about its all here,but the wf.has pensions from the uk.2020/2031.answers on a post card to T.I.T. taffy in thailand

[Issangeorge]

In 1997 shop houses were springing up everywhere and in the middle of nowhere. People were getting huge loans to build these, with no realalistic chance to ever pay them back. We all know what happened in 1997. Now the same thing is happening with short time motels. In my area there is a new short time motel being built almost every week. Shades of 97 I think.

[chiang mai]

In 1997 shop houses were springing up everywhere and in the middle of nowhere. People were getting huge loans to build these, with no realalistic chance to ever pay them back. We all know what happened in 1997. Now the same thing is happening with short time motels. In my area there is a new short time motel being built almost every week. Shades of 97 I think.

I think not, you don't need huge loans to build shop houses and anyway, all the shop houses built back then would all have been sold to end owners pretty quickly. The 1997 crisis was more to do with the fixed currency peg than anything to do with shop houses although an excess of poorly valued real estate loans was a factor in the currency crash. Today there's an effective central bank in place to monitor and control such things, exports are booming and reserves are strong, the current boom you see in construction is not what you think it is, unless your area has captured the market in short time hotels!

[RogueLeader]

In 1997 shop houses were springing up everywhere and in the middle of nowhere. People were getting huge loans to build these, with no realalistic chance to ever pay them back. We all know what happened in 1997. Now the same thing is happening with short time motels. In my area there is a new short time motel being built almost every week. Shades of 97 I think.

I think a deeper problem is manifested in the fact that you can walk down a street in any town in Thailand with a mass of empty hotels and guesthouses and discover that not only won't they lower their prices, but they actually increase them to make up for lost revenue. It works, as along as everyone else is using the same model. As soon as Thailand has serious competition from Burma and Cambodia, they'll be toast if they keep this up.

[Naam]

In 1997 shop houses were springing up everywhere and in the middle of nowhere. People were getting huge loans to build these, with no realalistic chance to ever pay them back. We all know what happened in 1997. Now the same thing is happening with short time motels. In my area there is a new short time motel being built almost every week. Shades of 97 I think.

I think a deeper problem is manifested in the fact that you can walk down a street in any town in Thailand with a mass of empty hotels and guesthouses and discover that not only won't they lower their prices, but they actually increase them to make up for lost revenue. It works, as along as everyone else is using the same model. As soon as Thailand has serious competition from Burma and Cambodia, they'll be toast if they keep this up.

serious competition will also soon arise from the highlands of Papua New Guinea and (to a lesser extent) from the Christmas Islands.

[connda]

In 1997 shop houses were springing up everywhere and in the middle of nowhere. People were getting huge loans to build these, with no realalistic chance to ever pay them back. We all know what happened in 1997. Now the same thing is happening with short time motels. In my area there is a new short time motel being built almost every week. Shades of 97 I think.

I think a deeper problem is manifested in the fact that you can walk down a street in any town in Thailand with a mass of empty hotels and guesthouses and discover that not only won't they lower their prices, but they actually increase them to make up for lost revenue. It works, as along as everyone else is using the same model. As soon as Thailand has serious competition from Burma and Cambodia, they'll be toast if they keep this up.

Money is flowing into Thailand now (or you could also make the argument that money is 'fleeing' else where (to note: Japan, Euro-zone counties that just watched Cyprus implode (Italy, Spain, Greece, Ireland, etc -- get out prior to serious capital controls), and countries where the Central Banks in collusion with their governments are 'printing' money faster than drunken sailors could spend it at the VIP High Roller tables in Lav Vegas and Monaco. At the moment, Asian banks look like the model of fiscal conservatism as compared to their Western counter-parts. Smart money is moving this direction. But too much money inflates bubbles, and bubbles (historically) eventually pop. I'm just gritting my teeth and waiting.

For those in gold or silver-- these prices are manipulated. Enjoy the prices while they're low. Zero Hedge has a saying: BTFD (Buy the F*****g Dips). Central Banks, especially China, Russia, and the BRIC countries are buying hand over fist.

Edited April 11, 2013 by connda

[RogueLeader]

In 1997 shop houses were springing up everywhere and in the middle of nowhere. People were getting huge loans to build these, with no realalistic chance to ever pay them back. We all know what happened in 1997. Now the same thing is happening with short time motels. In my area there is a new short time motel being built almost every week. Shades of 97 I think.

I think a deeper problem is manifested in the fact that you can walk down a street in any town in Thailand with a mass of empty hotels and guesthouses and discover that not only won't they lower their prices, but they actually increase them to make up for lost revenue. It works, as along as everyone else is using the same model. As soon as Thailand has serious competition from Burma and Cambodia, they'll be toast if they keep this up.

Money is flowing into Thailand now (or you could also make the argument that money is 'fleeing' else where (to note: Japan, Euro-zone counties that just watched Cyprus implode (Italy, Spain, Greece, Ireland, etc -- get out prior to serious capital controls), and countries where the Central Banks in collusion with their governments are 'printing' money faster than drunken sailors could spend it at the VIP High Roller tables in Lav Vegas and Monaco. At the moment, Asian banks look like the model of fiscal conservatism as compared to their Western counter-parts. Smart money is moving this direction. But too much money inflates bubbles, and bubbles (historically) eventually pop. I'm just gritting my teeth and waiting.

For those in gold or silver-- these prices are manipulated. Enjoy the prices while they're low. Zero Hedge has a saying: BTFD (Buy the F*****g Dips). Central Banks, especially China, Russia, and the BRIC countries are buying hand over fist.

Money might be 'flowing into Thailand', but that doesn't really help Chumpol and Nok who run a guesthouse in Chiang Mai, or their parents who run a grocery store down the road. It benefits people who are already rich and who become richer, put the small fry out of business and hire them at minimum wage to work in their shiny new malls and hotels. How long do you think it'll be before the new investors 'persuade' the lawmakers to abolish laws on foreign ownership - which, despite their quite justified criticism, do benefit Thais in a very real sense?

For the majority of Thais, massive inflow of foreign capital is a disaster. Ask any country unlucky enough to be found sitting on oil deposits.

And if you're a 0hedger, have a look at naked capitalism.

Edited April 11, 2013 by RogueLeader

[connda]

In 1997 shop houses were springing up everywhere and in the middle of nowhere. People were getting huge loans to build these, with no realalistic chance to ever pay them back. We all know what happened in 1997. Now the same thing is happening with short time motels. In my area there is a new short time motel being built almost every week. Shades of 97 I think.

I think a deeper problem is manifested in the fact that you can walk down a street in any town in Thailand with a mass of empty hotels and guesthouses and discover that not only won't they lower their prices, but they actually increase them to make up for lost revenue. It works, as along as everyone else is using the same model. As soon as Thailand has serious competition from Burma and Cambodia, they'll be toast if they keep this up.

serious competition will also soon arise from the highlands of Papua New Guinea and (to a lesser extent) from the Christmas Islands.

Really?

"Travellers to Papua New Guinea should be aware of the high level of

violence and crime in some areas. For example, lone foreign females are

usually advised not to travel unescorted in Port Moresby and in parts of

the Highlands region. Travellers should seek up-to-date information

about the current situation before travelling and travel with

arrangements with an experienced tour operator with years of Papua New

Guinea experience. It is also highly advised to never travel alone or at night." -- wikipedia

[connda]

In 1997 shop houses were springing up everywhere and in the middle of nowhere. People were getting huge loans to build these, with no realalistic chance to ever pay them back. We all know what happened in 1997. Now the same thing is happening with short time motels. In my area there is a new short time motel being built almost every week. Shades of 97 I think.

I think a deeper problem is manifested in the fact that you can walk down a street in any town in Thailand with a mass of empty hotels and guesthouses and discover that not only won't they lower their prices, but they actually increase them to make up for lost revenue. It works, as along as everyone else is using the same model. As soon as Thailand has serious competition from Burma and Cambodia, they'll be toast if they keep this up.

Money is flowing into Thailand now (or you could also make the argument that money is 'fleeing' else where (to note: Japan, Euro-zone counties that just watched Cyprus implode (Italy, Spain, Greece, Ireland, etc -- get out prior to serious capital controls), and countries where the Central Banks in collusion with their governments are 'printing' money faster than drunken sailors could spend it at the VIP High Roller tables in Lav Vegas and Monaco. At the moment, Asian banks look like the model of fiscal conservatism as compared to their Western counter-parts. Smart money is moving this direction. But too much money inflates bubbles, and bubbles (historically) eventually pop. I'm just gritting my teeth and waiting.

For those in gold or silver-- these prices are manipulated. Enjoy the prices while they're low. Zero Hedge has a saying: BTFD (Buy the F*****g Dips). Central Banks, especially China, Russia, and the BRIC countries are buying hand over fist.

Money might be 'flowing into Thailand', but that doesn't really help Chumpol and Nok who run a guesthouse in Chiang Mai, or their parents who run a grocery store down the road. It benefits people who are already rich and who become richer, put the small fry out of business and hire them at minimum wage to work in their shiny new malls and hotels. How long do you think it'll be before the new investors 'persuade' the lawmakers to abolish laws on foreign ownership - which, despite their quite justified criticism, do benefit Thais in a very real sense?

For the majority of Thais, massive inflow of foreign capital is a disaster. Ask any country unlucky enough to be found sitting on oil deposits.

And if you're a 0hedger, have a look at naked capitalism.

I agree. Never said money flowing into Thailand was a good thing. For most people, yours truly included, it freaking sucks. A strong baht will equate to higher domestic costs -- harder on the average Somchai and family; tougher for the export base that makes up 70% of Thai GDP; tougher on expats; but the Hi-So, bankers, elites, puyais of the financial world....well, they'll make out like bandits. Notice that the Finance Minster shrugged this off like it's no big deal. Prehaps his fingers are greased by the inflows methinks.

Yeah, Naked Capitalism is linked up to the home page along with other alternate financial sites. Peruse enough sites (heck, even MSNBC) and you get a feel for the 'big picture'.

[mccw]

In 1997 shop houses were springing up everywhere and in the middle of nowhere. People were getting huge loans to build these, with no realalistic chance to ever pay them back. We all know what happened in 1997. Now the same thing is happening with short time motels. In my area there is a new short time motel being built almost every week. Shades of 97 I think.

I think a deeper problem is manifested in the fact that you can walk down a street in any town in Thailand with a mass of empty hotels and guesthouses and discover that not only won't they lower their prices, but they actually increase them to make up for lost revenue. It works, as along as everyone else is using the same model. As soon as Thailand has serious competition from Burma and Cambodia, they'll be toast if they keep this up.

Money is flowing into Thailand now (or you could also make the argument that money is 'fleeing' else where (to note: Japan, Euro-zone counties that just watched Cyprus implode (Italy, Spain, Greece, Ireland, etc -- get out prior to serious capital controls), and countries where the Central Banks in collusion with their governments are 'printing' money faster than drunken sailors could spend it at the VIP High Roller tables in Lav Vegas and Monaco. At the moment, Asian banks look like the model of fiscal conservatism as compared to their Western counter-parts. Smart money is moving this direction. But too much money inflates bubbles, and bubbles (historically) eventually pop. I'm just gritting my teeth and waiting.

For those in gold or silver-- these prices are manipulated. Enjoy the prices while they're low. Zero Hedge has a saying: BTFD (Buy the F*****g Dips). Central Banks, especially China, Russia, and the BRIC countries are buying hand over fist.

Money might be 'flowing into Thailand', but that doesn't really help Chumpol and Nok who run a guesthouse in Chiang Mai, or their parents who run a grocery store down the road. It benefits people who are already rich and who become richer, put the small fry out of business and hire them at minimum wage to work in their shiny new malls and hotels. How long do you think it'll be before the new investors 'persuade' the lawmakers to abolish laws on foreign ownership - which, despite their quite justified criticism, do benefit Thais in a very real sense?

For the majority of Thais, massive inflow of foreign capital is a disaster. Ask any country unlucky enough to be found sitting on oil deposits.

And if you're a 0hedger, have a look at naked capitalism.

I agree. Never said money flowing into Thailand was a good thing. For most people, yours truly included, it freaking sucks. A strong baht will equate to higher domestic costs -- harder on the average Somchai and family; tougher for the export base that makes up 70% of Thai GDP; tougher on expats; but the Hi-So, bankers, elites, puyais of the financial world....well, they'll make out like bandits. Notice that the Finance Minster shrugged this off like it's no big deal. Prehaps his fingers are greased by the inflows methinks.

Yeah, Naked Capitalism is linked up to the home page along with other alternate financial sites. Peruse enough sites (heck, even MSNBC) and you get a feel for the 'big picture'.

You guys need to go back to economics 101

Strong currency equals cheaper imports helping keep costs down for mr and mrs somchai.

If the bht was dropping massively then the costs of everything would be rising much much faster for the average Thai due to the fact that Thailand imports most of its fuel and energy which adds to the costs of every single aspect of life.

[connda]

In 1997 shop houses were springing up everywhere and in the middle of nowhere. People were getting huge loans to build these, with no realalistic chance to ever pay them back. We all know what happened in 1997. Now the same thing is happening with short time motels. In my area there is a new short time motel being built almost every week. Shades of 97 I think.

I think a deeper problem is manifested in the fact that you can walk down a street in any town in Thailand with a mass of empty hotels and guesthouses and discover that not only won't they lower their prices, but they actually increase them to make up for lost revenue. It works, as along as everyone else is using the same model. As soon as Thailand has serious competition from Burma and Cambodia, they'll be toast if they keep this up.

Money is flowing into Thailand now (or you could also make the argument that money is 'fleeing' else where (to note: Japan, Euro-zone counties that just watched Cyprus implode (Italy, Spain, Greece, Ireland, etc -- get out prior to serious capital controls), and countries where the Central Banks in collusion with their governments are 'printing' money faster than drunken sailors could spend it at the VIP High Roller tables in Lav Vegas and Monaco. At the moment, Asian banks look like the model of fiscal conservatism as compared to their Western counter-parts. Smart money is moving this direction. But too much money inflates bubbles, and bubbles (historically) eventually pop. I'm just gritting my teeth and waiting.

For those in gold or silver-- these prices are manipulated. Enjoy the prices while they're low. Zero Hedge has a saying: BTFD (Buy the F*****g Dips). Central Banks, especially China, Russia, and the BRIC countries are buying hand over fist.

Money might be 'flowing into Thailand', but that doesn't really help Chumpol and Nok who run a guesthouse in Chiang Mai, or their parents who run a grocery store down the road. It benefits people who are already rich and who become richer, put the small fry out of business and hire them at minimum wage to work in their shiny new malls and hotels. How long do you think it'll be before the new investors 'persuade' the lawmakers to abolish laws on foreign ownership - which, despite their quite justified criticism, do benefit Thais in a very real sense?

For the majority of Thais, massive inflow of foreign capital is a disaster. Ask any country unlucky enough to be found sitting on oil deposits.

And if you're a 0hedger, have a look at naked capitalism.

I agree. Never said money flowing into Thailand was a good thing. For most people, yours truly included, it freaking sucks. A strong baht will equate to higher domestic costs -- harder on the average Somchai and family; tougher for the export base that makes up 70% of Thai GDP; tougher on expats; but the Hi-So, bankers, elites, puyais of the financial world....well, they'll make out like bandits. Notice that the Finance Minster shrugged this off like it's no big deal. Prehaps his fingers are greased by the inflows methinks.

Yeah, Naked Capitalism is linked up to the home page along with other alternate financial sites. Peruse enough sites (heck, even MSNBC) and you get a feel for the 'big picture'.

You guys need to go back to economics 101

Strong currency equals cheaper imports helping keep costs down for mr and mrs somchai.

If the bht was dropping massively then the costs of everything would be rising much much faster for the average Thai due to the fact that Thailand imports most of its fuel and energy which adds to the costs of every single aspect of life.

Really? How much do you think the "average" Thai buys in the way of imported goods. How many average Thais are headed for an overseas vacation to take advantage of the purchasing power of a strong baht. We'll have to agree to disagree. Maybe 4% of the entire Thai population will benefit by a stronger baht.

[poanoi]

In 1997 shop houses were springing up everywhere and in the middle of nowhere. People were getting huge loans to build these, with no realalistic chance to ever pay them back. We all know what happened in 1997. Now the same thing is happening with short time motels. In my area there is a new short time motel being built almost every week. Shades of 97 I think.

I think a deeper problem is manifested in the fact that you can walk down a street in any town in Thailand with a mass of empty hotels and guesthouses and discover that not only won't they lower their prices, but they actually increase them to make up for lost revenue. It works, as along as everyone else is using the same model. As soon as Thailand has serious competition from Burma and Cambodia, they'll be toast if they keep this up.

serious competition will also soon arise from the highlands of Papua New Guinea and (to a lesser extent) from the Christmas Islands.

Really?

"Travellers to Papua New Guinea should be aware of the high level of

violence and crime in some areas. For example, lone foreign females are

usually advised not to travel unescorted in Port Moresby and in parts of

the Highlands region. Travellers should seek up-to-date information

about the current situation before travelling and travel with

arrangements with an experienced tour operator with years of Papua New

Guinea experience. It is also highly advised to never travel alone or at night." -- wikipedia

Perhaps you should take a break from wiki-education and do a satire course ..

[StreetCowboy]

...

...

serious competition will also soon arise from the highlands of Papua New Guinea and (to a lesser extent) from the Christmas Islands.

Really?

"Travellers to Papua New Guinea should be aware of the high level of

violence and crime in some areas. For example, lone foreign females are

usually advised not to travel unescorted in Port Moresby and in parts of

the Highlands region. Travellers should seek up-to-date information

about the current situation before travelling and travel with

arrangements with an experienced tour operator with years of Papua New

Guinea experience. It is also highly advised to never travel alone or at night." -- wikipedia

Perhaps you should take a break from wiki-education and do a satire course ..

I find that shining a spotlight destroys the added humourous impact.

Anyway, no-one has come up with a reason why the Thai baht strengthened significantly in January. I couldn't find a good benchmark to compare it to, so I can't really comment on its performance since then. It's clear that the US dollar seems to be most steady in its gradual decline, while other major Western currencies lurch somewhat unpredictably generally downwards.

The dramatic swing appears to have stopped, though... as we would say on a bear hunt... "Doesn't matter - you're past it..."

SC

[poanoi]

It coincided with the mess in Cyprus, and so it did with the mess in Greece too a while ago,

so my bet is that these countries dragging Euro down and then something else has to go up

[mccw]

In 1997 shop houses were springing up everywhere and in the middle of nowhere. People were getting huge loans to build these, with no realalistic chance to ever pay them back. We all know what happened in 1997. Now the same thing is happening with short time motels. In my area there is a new short time motel being built almost every week. Shades of 97 I think.

I think a deeper problem is manifested in the fact that you can walk down a street in any town in Thailand with a mass of empty hotels and guesthouses and discover that not only won't they lower their prices, but they actually increase them to make up for lost revenue. It works, as along as everyone else is using the same model. As soon as Thailand has serious competition from Burma and Cambodia, they'll be toast if they keep this up.

Money is flowing into Thailand now (or you could also make the argument that money is 'fleeing' else where (to note: Japan, Euro-zone counties that just watched Cyprus implode (Italy, Spain, Greece, Ireland, etc -- get out prior to serious capital controls), and countries where the Central Banks in collusion with their governments are 'printing' money faster than drunken sailors could spend it at the VIP High Roller tables in Lav Vegas and Monaco. At the moment, Asian banks look like the model of fiscal conservatism as compared to their Western counter-parts. Smart money is moving this direction. But too much money inflates bubbles, and bubbles (historically) eventually pop. I'm just gritting my teeth and waiting.

For those in gold or silver-- these prices are manipulated. Enjoy the prices while they're low. Zero Hedge has a saying: BTFD (Buy the F*****g Dips). Central Banks, especially China, Russia, and the BRIC countries are buying hand over fist.

Money might be 'flowing into Thailand', but that doesn't really help Chumpol and Nok who run a guesthouse in Chiang Mai, or their parents who run a grocery store down the road. It benefits people who are already rich and who become richer, put the small fry out of business and hire them at minimum wage to work in their shiny new malls and hotels. How long do you think it'll be before the new investors 'persuade' the lawmakers to abolish laws on foreign ownership - which, despite their quite justified criticism, do benefit Thais in a very real sense?

For the majority of Thais, massive inflow of foreign capital is a disaster. Ask any country unlucky enough to be found sitting on oil deposits.

And if you're a 0hedger, have a look at naked capitalism.

I agree. Never said money flowing into Thailand was a good thing. For most people, yours truly included, it freaking sucks. A strong baht will equate to higher domestic costs -- harder on the average Somchai and family; tougher for the export base that makes up 70% of Thai GDP; tougher on expats; but the Hi-So, bankers, elites, puyais of the financial world....well, they'll make out like bandits. Notice that the Finance Minster shrugged this off like it's no big deal. Prehaps his fingers are greased by the inflows methinks.

Yeah, Naked Capitalism is linked up to the home page along with other alternate financial sites. Peruse enough sites (heck, even MSNBC) and you get a feel for the 'big picture'.

You guys need to go back to economics 101

Strong currency equals cheaper imports helping keep costs down for mr and mrs somchai.

If the bht was dropping massively then the costs of everything would be rising much much faster for the average Thai due to the fact that Thailand imports most of its fuel and energy which adds to the costs of every single aspect of life.

Really? How much do you think the "average" Thai buys in the way of imported goods. How many average Thais are headed for an overseas vacation to take advantage of the purchasing power of a strong baht. We'll have to agree to disagree. Maybe 4% of the entire Thai population will benefit by a stronger baht.

I already explained how fuel and energy affect the price of everything for everyone in the country. Also i think potash and other key fertiliser are imported wich forms the base for all food costs. it has Nothing to do with foreign vacations, which I agree are a small portion of population but you do in advertantly raise another point that the strong bht can pay off the yen and dollar national debts more easily and also the bht has more power to invest in the other asean countries and further afield.

Could you tell me why a strong bht makes anything MORE expensive?

What IS making things more expensive is the rising labour costs

[StreetCowboy]

It coincided with the mess in Cyprus, and so it did with the mess in Greece too a while ago,

so my bet is that these countries dragging Euro down and then something else has to go up

There was a more or less coincident rise against the Malaysian ringgit, the pound and the dollar.

It seems to have calmed down, since

SC

[NeverSure]

In 1997 shop houses were springing up everywhere and in the middle of nowhere. People were getting huge loans to build these, with no realalistic chance to ever pay them back. We all know what happened in 1997. Now the same thing is happening with short time motels. In my area there is a new short time motel being built almost every week. Shades of 97 I think.

I think not, you don't need huge loans to build shop houses and anyway, all the shop houses built back then would all have been sold to end owners pretty quickly. The 1997 crisis was more to do with the fixed currency peg than anything to do with shop houses although an excess of poorly valued real estate loans was a factor in the currency crash. Today there's an effective central bank in place to monitor and control such things, exports are booming and reserves are strong, the current boom you see in construction is not what you think it is, unless your area has captured the market in short time hotels!

If it didn't have to do with a real estate bubble in '97, then why did the IMF have to bail out Thai banks from bad real estate loans?

The '97 bubble was so bad that some of the condos and other buildings are still sitting empty, and many have been torn down. All this while massive numbers of new ones are being built.

Now, so many people are so sold on Thai real estate as a great investment, that people are buying as many condos as they can afford, and on credit. Many, many of those condos are sitting empty while other new ones spring up left and right. But, since real estate has been going up so much, it will always go up, right?

I just lived through a big real estate crash of perhaps 40% in value almost overnight in the US. I can't be convinced these things don't happen. And the mood in the US, even among bankers just before the crash was one of near euphoria about real estate. It broke many banks which had to be merged and/or bailed out. It broke Wall Street and it devastated a lot of Americans. Overbuilding was rampant and so many were drunk on it.

Personally I believe I see the same thing in Thailand. There's unprecedented personal borrowing for no-down cars and houses, credit cards, cell phones... There's easy money for real estate development and a sense that it will never end. There's strong inflation, a corrupt government and banking system. There's unprecedented government borrowing and spending. Rice scam, 2 tril train system or whatever, flood control money seems to have disappeared...

SOMEONE is making a LOT of money off all of this behind the scenes, just as they were on Wall Street and in the big banks, and in government in the US.

I'm not buying it. Not the SET, not the real estate, not the government's figures, not the inflation figure, not the unemployment number - none of it. And not gold. When governments and people get into trouble they don't buy gold. They sell gold.

$.02

Edited April 13, 2013 by NeverSure