The Thai-Baht And The Future Of Farangs In Thailand

[Denizen]

Dont know about Swizerland, but it would seem that my copy-and-paste skills are failing me, Meant to grab this gem :

Hedge funds as speculators

About 70% to 90% of the foreign exchange transactions are speculative. In other words, the person or institution that bought or sold the currency has no plan to actually take delivery of the currency in the end; rather, they were solely speculating on the movement of that particular currency. Hedge funds have gained a reputation for aggressive currency speculation since 1996. They control billions of dollars of equity and may borrow billions more, and thus may overwhelm intervention by central banks to support almost any currency, if the economic fundamentals are in the hedge funds' favor.

So you contend that speculators have been forcing down the exchange rate of the GBP since 2009. If so it is irrational and the longest speculative splurge in history. Perhaps the objective of the speculators is parity with the Baht?

Perhaps the speculators have been active in the GBP since 1950 because it has consistently declined since then.

No hedge fund has financial resources equal to the UK.

Edited March 2, 2013 by Denizen

[TommoPhysicist]

Dont know about Swizerland, but it would seem that my copy-and-paste skills are failing me, Meant to grab this gem :

Hedge funds as speculators

About 70% to 90% of the foreign exchange transactions are speculative. In other words, the person or institution that bought or sold the currency has no plan to actually take delivery of the currency in the end; rather, they were solely speculating on the movement of that particular currency. Hedge funds have gained a reputation for aggressive currency speculation since 1996. They control billions of dollars of equity and may borrow billions more, and thus may overwhelm intervention by central banks to support almost any currency, if the economic fundamentals are in the hedge funds' favor.

So you contend that speculators have been forcing down the exchange rate of the GBP since 2009. If so it is irrational and the longest speculative splurge in history. Perhaps the objective of the speculators is parity with the Baht?

Perhaps the speculators have been active in the GBP since 1950 because it has consistently declined since then.

No hedge fund has financial resources equal to the UK.

gbp has only been forced dow in the last 2 months. 4 years ago it was 52bht, in january it was 50bht ....... longest splurge! Wat are you on?

In 1950 gbp was about 35bht ..... so 45 today is forced down ......... <deleted>.

Edited March 2, 2013 by TommoPhysicist

[petermik]

If you guys keep it up, there will be a rash of Brit balcony jumpers. If they have a balcony to jump off. I guess they can run out in front of a bus.

Your attempt at humour leaves me with the thought "don,t give up your day job"

[StreetCowboy]

fallen below 45 now and i thought i got a bad deal at 47 last month ....this along with dire interest rates makes a pretty depressing scenario... guys on a pension must really be feeling the pinch especially if they moved here 5-6 years ago when the rate was a heady 65-70

The point is that the low interest rates and cheap currency are intended to encourage inward investment, not to encourage people to go on foreign holidays.

It's forced belt-tightening by the government. Unfortunately, our "essential" tastes are so eclectic that devaluation just means people spend more on imports, while exports earn less in foreign currency terms if they have been prudently priced in pounds to reduce risk.

I don't think that the welfare of expats is particularly high on the government's agenda; they're more concerned with getting people back to work in the UK to fund our pensions.

SC

[TommoPhysicist]

fallen below 45 now and i thought i got a bad deal at 47 last month ....this along with dire interest rates makes a pretty depressing scenario... guys on a pension must really be feeling the pinch especially if they moved here 5-6 years ago when the rate was a heady 65-70

The point is that the low interest rates and cheap currency are intended to encourage inward investment, not to encourage people to go on foreign holidays.

It's forced belt-tightening by the government. Unfortunately, our "essential" tastes are so eclectic that devaluation just means people spend more on imports, while exports earn less in foreign currency terms if they have been prudently priced in pounds to reduce risk.

I don't think that the welfare of expats is particularly high on the government's agenda; they're more concerned with getting people back to work in the UK to fund our pensions.

SC

any expat with a modicum of common sense keeps a year or two of cash in local currency. Only the poor and the foolish get caught out by short term currency fluctuations. Edited March 2, 2013 by TommoPhysicist

[dec]

any expat with a modicum of common sense keeps a year or two of cash in local currency. Only the poor and the foolish get caught out by short term currency fluctuations.

But the question is wheres it going to be in 2 years ?...

[LawrenceChee]

Save more in local cash and you can stop thinking mates :-)

[TommoPhysicist]

any expat with a modicum of common sense keeps a year or two of cash in local currency. Only the poor and the foolish get caught out by short term currency fluctuations.

But the question is wheres it going to be in 2 years ?...

In two years I might be dead, the Thai baht might be 90 to the GBP, foreigners might have all been chucked out ..............

America might have declared war on China, disease might have wiped out 75% of the world's population.

[MrWorldwide]

When I get to Thailand, I'm going straight to Tommo's place - he has two year's supply of baht sewn into his mattress, apparently.

Tommo, I expect that at least half of your posts are taking the piss - it's the process of trying to determine which half that seems to really take it out of me.

[MrWorldwide]

Of course, Thailand wouldn't be the first country to grapple with the growing pains that go with 'prosperity'. Two puff pieces from the Ipoh Echo (alliteration - cute) contain some interesting quotes, and a rather blatant if laudable agenda. Anyone who has been to KL knows that it is an expensive city, especially if you want to sample the nightlife, but Ipoh has long been considered a cheaper alternative - especially by Malaysian who dont see much point in paying 30RM for a beer or 300RM for female companionship. If people in a relatively 'rich' country like Malaysia are unhappy about rising prices, its not hard to see how well that will go down with rural Thais and those who live hand-to-mouth in Bangkok.

2010:

http://ipohecho.com.my/v2/2010/12/16/spiralling-cost-of-living/

In 2006, when Najib was Deputy Prime Minister, he asked Malaysians to change their lifestyle in order to face the spiralling cost of living. Someone responded, rather sarcastically: “How are we going to change our lifestyle when we have none?” He could not have been more precise

2012:

http://ipohecho.com.my/v2/2012/09/01/the-rising-cost-of-living/

Perak Consumers Association president Abdul Rahman Said Alli when contacted, blamed the high cost of living in Ipoh on the Government’s plans of wanting to turn Malaysia into a high-income nation by 2020.

“Why must we be so obsessed with becoming a high-income nation?” he questioned. He claimed that by pushing the country towards high-income, traders also push to have higher income by increasing their prices. He said the problem is more evident during festive seasons when the price of everything skyrockets. “And I am not talking about the controlled price items,” he said. He said the association had been receiving calls from the concerned public daily, over difficulties in making ends meet. “Our advice to them is to try to look for alternatives,” he said, adding that many people are working two jobs nowadays just to ensure there is enough income for the family.

[Gary A]

One thing is certain. You can't blame the baht for the falling western currencies. Who you can blame are the voters who elected and continue to elect politicians who are not able to balance a checkbook. People elect politicians who make promises that they can't afford to keep just to get the vote of people who are too lazy to work.

We are going to eventually see what happens when there is no possibility of being able to pay off the massive western debts. What will happen? I don't think anyone knows because it has never gotten this serious before.

[TommoPhysicist]

One thing is certain. You can't blame the baht for the falling western currencies. Who you can blame are the voters who elected and continue to elect politicians who are not able to balance a checkbook. People elect politicians who make promises that they can't afford to keep just to get the vote of people who are too lazy to work.

We are going to eventually see what happens when there is no possibility of being able to pay off the massive western debts. What will happen? I don't think anyone knows because it has never gotten this serious before.

It has happened many times before.

Usually the country that can't pay it's debts declares war on another country.

[Gary A]

One thing is certain. You can't blame the baht for the falling western currencies. Who you can blame are the voters who elected and continue to elect politicians who are not able to balance a checkbook. People elect politicians who make promises that they can't afford to keep just to get the vote of people who are too lazy to work.

We are going to eventually see what happens when there is no possibility of being able to pay off the massive western debts. What will happen? I don't think anyone knows because it has never gotten this serious before.

It has happened many times before.

Usually the country that can't pay it's debts declares war on another country.

Does that mean that the entire western world will declare war on China and Thailand?

[TommoPhysicist]

One thing is certain. You can't blame the baht for the falling western currencies. Who you can blame are the voters who elected and continue to elect politicians who are not able to balance a checkbook. People elect politicians who make promises that they can't afford to keep just to get the vote of people who are too lazy to work.

We are going to eventually see what happens when there is no possibility of being able to pay off the massive western debts. What will happen? I don't think anyone knows because it has never gotten this serious before.

It has happened many times before.

Usually the country that can't pay it's debts declares war on another country.

Does that mean that the entire western world will declare war on China and Thailand?

Nowadays

It usually means America will declare war on an Arab country.

Previously it was Germany declaring war on Europe.

It's usually better to declare war on someone you think is smaller and weaker than you.

Stops the plebs thinking about why they are all starving while their government are minting it.

Edited March 2, 2013 by TommoPhysicist

[MrWorldwide]

I dont see anyone declaring war on China as being in anyone's interests - can we move on from that little gem ? That is a 'go straight to Soi 4 and drink until you collapse face first onto your bed at the Nana Hotel' scenario for me. Actually a pretty cheap Armageddon fantasy - just chicken-on-a-stick and Beer Leo : the staff at the Nana would lose interest in my room rate when the first mushroom cloud appeared on the horizon.

[Denizen]

Dont know about Swizerland, but it would seem that my copy-and-paste skills are failing me, Meant to grab this gem :

Hedge funds as speculators

About 70% to 90% of the foreign exchange transactions are speculative. In other words, the person or institution that bought or sold the currency has no plan to actually take delivery of the currency in the end; rather, they were solely speculating on the movement of that particular currency. Hedge funds have gained a reputation for aggressive currency speculation since 1996. They control billions of dollars of equity and may borrow billions more, and thus may overwhelm intervention by central banks to support almost any currency, if the economic fundamentals are in the hedge funds' favor.

So you contend that speculators have been forcing down the exchange rate of the GBP since 2009. If so it is irrational and the longest speculative splurge in history. Perhaps the objective of the speculators is parity with the Baht?

Perhaps the speculators have been active in the GBP since 1950 because it has consistently declined since then.

No hedge fund has financial resources equal to the UK.

gbp has only been forced dow in the last 2 months. 4 years ago it was 52bht, in january it was 50bht ....... longest splurge! Wat are you on?

In 1950 gbp was about 35bht ..... so 45 today is forced down ......... <deleted>.

5 years ago it was 70+.

[metisdead]

Off topic posts have been removed.

[Hedghog]

I think it will all come out in the wash.

40bht to the £.

Thereafter small increments,to achieve a steady 45bht to the £.

Just my pennies worth.

[theblether]

It won't matter to the majority of tourists if the baht goes 40/£, they'll still regard Thailand as cheap, especially the Brits from the cities, and in particular London and the South East. One of my pals just came back, ( start of Feb ) from his first trip with his wife to BKK and Samui, it was 46/£ when he was there and he was raving about how cheap it was.

[NeverSure]

One thing is certain. You can't blame the baht for the falling western currencies. Who you can blame are the voters who elected and continue to elect politicians who are not able to balance a checkbook. People elect politicians who make promises that they can't afford to keep just to get the vote of people who are too lazy to work.

We are going to eventually see what happens when there is no possibility of being able to pay off the massive western debts. What will happen? I don't think anyone knows because it has never gotten this serious before.

It has happened many times before.

Usually the country that can't pay it's debts declares war on another country.

In this case, the largest Western countries owe their debts to their people in the form of unfunded future promises. In the US it's unfunded pensions and Medicare, Social Security, and other socialist items. The US could easily pay what it owes to other countries, especially if other countries paid what they owe the US.

This time we've all gotten ourselves into a mess through socialism. It isn't so much our foreign debts as it is our internal budget deficits and the printing of fiat money to pay "entitlements" to our own people.

[Hedghog]

Sure tourists aren't bothered so much.

But the impact on fixed pension,Expats is a different thing altogether.

(Yes I know they should of planned ahead).

[HardenedSoul]

One thing is certain. You can't blame the baht for the falling western currencies. Who you can blame are the voters who elected and continue to elect politicians who are not able to balance a checkbook. People elect politicians who make promises that they can't afford to keep just to get the vote of people who are too lazy to work.

We are going to eventually see what happens when there is no possibility of being able to pay off the massive western debts. What will happen? I don't think anyone knows because it has never gotten this serious before.

Yep, people do get the governments they deserve.

Politicians have always told people what they want to hear and, for longer than any of us can remember, that has been, "Yes, you can get everything for free"

[JurgenG]

A friend of mine just had a surgical procedure, around 60,000 Bahts. He was complaining that since the first time he enquires about the procedures around 2 years ago, prices have more than double (in THB, not even including the exchange rate). But he checked with all the places where he could have the procedure, Bangkok was still the cheapest

[MAJIC]

If you guys keep it up, there will be a rash of Brit balcony jumpers. If they have a balcony to jump off. I guess they can run out in front of a bus.

Pitiful and Pathetic comment!

[WinnieTheKhwai]

The outlook is grim and be prepared to tighten up your belts up to the very last buckle, it`s going to be a rough ride.

Wait.. There is a chance that the Farang Avalanche into Thailand could be lessening a bit (or reversing even though I'm not holding my breath), and that's a grim outlook? That's a GREAT outlook!

The ones already here will likely manage, knowing/learning to save some costs. But many of the potential new arrivals will -hopefully- reconsider. That would be VERY GOOD NEWS!

[LawrenceChee]

As I have posted many times before the scary numbers from your financial planner was real

So sorry for those who have to tighten your belts now

[Denizen]

The outlook is grim and be prepared to tighten up your belts up to the very last buckle, it`s going to be a rough ride.

Wait.. There is a chance that the Farang Avalanche into Thailand could be lessening a bit (or reversing even though I'm not holding my breath), and that's a grim outlook? That's a GREAT outlook!

The ones already here will likely manage, knowing/learning to save some costs. But many of the potential new arrivals will -hopefully- reconsider. That would be VERY GOOD NEWS!

If the GBP/THB trend continues for a long time Thais will be heading to UK for cheap lifestyle.

[MrWorldwide]

Right - Thais would flock to the UK because they adore cold, grey days warm beer and blood pudding. Not to mention fat slappers in mini-skirts.

[Ystradyfodwg]

Can't really see how people think Thailand is cheap these days?BT2,500-BT3,000 for 3* hotel BKK equates to £55-65 a night.BT180 for a beer in Soi Cowboy £3-80!Meal for 2 Pizza Hut or MK's BT900 or £20.Not particularly cheap in my book.

[wooloomooloo]

Don't hang about the most expensive places in LOS.