The Thai-Baht And The Future Of Farangs In Thailand

[Denizen]

Yes, same for me. 11 yrs have been great but it's over. Not even 30 baht /USD. Really sucks! More than a $ for a cheap beer at the 7 and its only 10oz? Hell, can get 12 oz beer for 50 cents in the STATES. No bargains here anymore.

Not knowing how many of those cans you consume per day, but on my average consumption the difference between Thai and US prices would be a staggering US$ 45 per month or an amount that you will have to spend on e.g. much higher rent back home.

Nobody comes to Thailand for the beer. Perhaps Cheap Charlies can give Captron a discount to retain his vital economic effect in Thailand.

[Chopperboy]

No matter how we think Thailand is run its still run on better long term economic principles than many Western countries.

If you study economics it becomes apparent that many countries like the US/ UK have been ruined over the last 30 years.

Some people consider that this has been a deliberate policy - either way, expect more of the same i.e. stronger Baht and declining exchange rates in the future!

[metisdead]

Off topic posts have been removed.

[TommoPhysicist]

No matter how we think Thailand is run its still run on better long term economic principles than many Western countries.

If you study economics it becomes apparent that many countries like the US/ UK have been ruined over the last 30 years.

Some people consider that this has been a deliberate policy - either way, expect more of the same i.e. stronger Baht and declining exchange rates in the future!

I'm expecting a rapidly declining Baht in the near future.

Civil war is usually bad for the exchange rate.

[Chopperboy]

No matter how we think Thailand is run its still run on better long term economic principles than many Western countries.

If you study economics it becomes apparent that many countries like the US/ UK have been ruined over the last 30 years.

Some people consider that this has been a deliberate policy - either way, expect more of the same i.e. stronger Baht and declining exchange rates in the future!

I'm expecting a rapidly declining Baht in the near future.

Civil war is usually bad for the exchange rate.

Last time we had the red/ yellow shirt Bangkok standoff the Baht stayed steady and in fact rose slightly.

Many ferangs wish it were not so but will just have to face that they are not the overall winers in this game of globalism.

[Denizen]

No matter how we think Thailand is run its still run on better long term economic principles than many Western countries.

If you study economics it becomes apparent that many countries like the US/ UK have been ruined over the last 30 years.

Some people consider that this has been a deliberate policy - either way, expect more of the same i.e. stronger Baht and declining exchange rates in the future!

I'm expecting a rapidly declining Baht in the near future.

Civil war is usually bad for the exchange rate.

Last time we had the red/ yellow shirt Bangkok standoff the Baht stayed steady and in fact rose slightly.

Many ferangs wish it were not so but will just have to face that they are not the overall winers in this game of globalism.

I have been in Thailand since 2003 and have observed the Thai economy is very resilient through events such as SARS epidemic of 2003-4; Thaksin corruption scandals of 2004; Tsunami of 2004; the military coup; floods of 2011; red shirts; the Southern terrorism of 2004-13. The Baht kept rising through these periods.

And the Baht kept rising with good justification as exports increased by double digits every year.

Its not likely the Baht will fall in the foreseeable future unless there is a massive catastrophe.

Conversely UK has had great stability but the GBP is downwardly mobile.

Edited February 26, 2013 by Denizen

[tw25rw]

Very good time for the Chinese to get an Oxford education, never been a cheaper time.

In the long term, it will hopefully be good for all of us for the Chinese to have a formative experience from the Western world.

[Naam]

No matter how we think Thailand is run its still run on better long term economic principles than many Western countries.

If you study economics it becomes apparent that many countries like the US/ UK have been ruined over the last 30 years.

Some people consider that this has been a deliberate policy - either way, expect more of the same i.e. stronger Baht and declining exchange rates in the future!

I'm expecting a rapidly declining Baht in the near future.

Civil war is usually bad for the exchange rate.

[HerbalEd]

Maybe it the "formerly" poor countries of Asia's turn to be top dog. With the rapidly emerging economies of India, China, etc. and more and more of them coming as tourists to Thailand, maybe Thailand doesn't need western tourists that much. History does have a way of changing things, doesn't it. Just ask the ancient Romans, Greeks, Mayans, Incans, etc., etc.

[MrWorldwide]

The AUD lost a cent on the USD overnight - currently a little over 1.02. its actually being greeted with some optimism here, but I wonder if the damage has already been done. Several iconic Aussie brands have been sunk by the high dollar over the last couple of years, and for what ? So that Aussie tourists can buy another fake handbag or stay in a slightly better hotel ? Those who have bought real estate in Asia (or the US) probably see it very differently, but it has been a double-edged sword and I believe it would be even more so for Thailand if the baht mae them uncompetitive.

Given that our dollar has pogoed between parity and 1.05 USD for the last couple of years (usually in response to waves of fear and loathing in the US over govt attempts to get things back on track), and the PM has gone on record saying that we may have to live with a high dollar for several more years, a one cent drop doesnt upset me, Anything above 25 baht to the dollar would keep me on track for my plans in 2014 - anything resembling 21 baht would put me in Cambodia, whether I like it or not, but that would equate to losing 30% in a little over a year. Brits may grimace at that, but they wouldn't be alone : anyone bringing container loads of goodies from Thailand would have an aneurism.

When the Pacific Peso dips below 30 baht, I expect that there will be some gnashing of teeth, but I'll save my teeth for anything below 26, Any doomsday predictions of a 50% drop would mean 15 baht to the dollar - short of another Great Depression in Oz, I just don't see that happening. If it does, I'll be the guy in the corner at Sharkey's nursing a lone bottle of Angkor and tightly clutching a handful of US one-dollar bills. Anyone know where I can get a secondhand rice cooker ?

Edited February 26, 2013 by MrWorldwide

[MrWorldwide]

I also admit to being mystified by the fact that the red shirt madness didn't hurt the baht appreciably, but as someone pointed out on another forum the ports continued to function as normal - tourism took a hit, but manufacturing didn't. So i went looking for signs that the floods may have hurt the baht. Nope. Yellow shirt blockade at Swampy ? Possibly - see the chart below and make your own conclusions.

Nov, 2008 - yellow shirts blockade Suvarnabhumi airport

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People's_Alliance_for_Democracy#Seizure_of_Suvarnabhumi_International_Airport

From 2009 on, the baht surged against the USD and has remained in a narrow band since.

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=THB&to=USD&view=5Y

Mar-May 2010 : red shirts protest / riot in central BKK

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Thai_political_protests

2010 floods cause ~1.7billion USD damage

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Thai_floods

2011 floods cause another 1.5billion USD damage

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Thailand_floods

One very resilient currency - I'll leave it to the board economists to explain how the baht can stay so strong through every disaster listed above, with the possible exception of the yellow shirt blockade. I accept that the Fed has printed an awful lot of new USD over the last 5 years, but it remains an exceptionally good outcome for the baht. Possibly a more interesting question is this : if you wanted to get the attention of Thailand's money men, which would you opt for : a protest in central BKK or a blockade way out at the airport ?

Thank God they reopened DM

[Denizen]

I also admit to being mystified by the fact that the red shirt madness didn't hurt the baht appreciably, but as someone pointed out on another forum the ports continued to function as normal - tourism took a hit, but manufacturing didn't. So i went looking for signs that the floods may have hurt the baht. Nope. Yellow shirt blockade at Swampy ? Possibly - see the chart below and make your own conclusions.

Nov, 2008 - yellow shirts blockade Suvarnabhumi airport

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People's_Alliance_for_Democracy#Seizure_of_Suvarnabhumi_International_Airport

From 2009 on, the baht surged against the USD and has remained in a narrow band since.

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=THB&to=USD&view=5Y

Mar-May 2010 : red shirts protest / riot in central BKK

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Thai_political_protests

2010 floods cause ~1.7billion USD damage

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Thai_floods

2011 floods cause another 1.5billion USD damage

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Thailand_floods

One very resilient currency - I'll leave it to the board economists to explain how the baht can stay so strong through every disaster listed above, with the possible exception of the yellow shirt blockade. I accept that the Fed has printed an awful lot of new USD over the last 5 years, but it remains an exceptionally good outcome for the baht. Possibly a more interesting question is this : if you wanted to get the attention of Thailand's money men, which would you opt for : a protest in central BKK or a blockade way out at the airport ?

Thank God they reopened DM

The answers are simple:

1. Value of trade greatly exceeds all other capital inflows. Therefore any event that does not disrupt trade has little effect on demand for Thai Baht and therefore the exchange rate.
2. Thailand economy has been very resilient in recovering from all the adverse incidents over the last ten years. Recovery has been very quick.
3. Brits are so desperate to escape UK they will keep supplying GBP to exchange for THB.

Edited February 26, 2013 by Denizen

[StreetCowboy]

I also admit to being mystified by the fact that the red shirt madness didn't hurt the baht appreciably, but as someone pointed out on another forum the ports continued to function as normal - tourism took a hit, but manufacturing didn't. So i went looking for signs that the floods may have hurt the baht. Nope. Yellow shirt blockade at Swampy ? Possibly - see the chart below and make your own conclusions.

Nov, 2008 - yellow shirts blockade Suvarnabhumi airport

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People's_Alliance_for_Democracy#Seizure_of_Suvarnabhumi_International_Airport

From 2009 on, the baht surged against the USD and has remained in a narrow band since.

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=THB&to=USD&view=5Y

Mar-May 2010 : red shirts protest / riot in central BKK

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Thai_political_protests

2010 floods cause ~1.7billion USD damage

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Thai_floods

2011 floods cause another 1.5billion USD damage

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Thailand_floods

One very resilient currency - I'll leave it to the board economists to explain how the baht can stay so strong through every disaster listed above, with the possible exception of the yellow shirt blockade. I accept that the Fed has printed an awful lot of new USD over the last 5 years, but it remains an exceptionally good outcome for the baht. Possibly a more interesting question is this : if you wanted to get the attention of Thailand's money men, which would you opt for : a protest in central BKK or a blockade way out at the airport ?

Thank God they reopened DM

The answers are simple:

1. Value of trade greatly exceeds all other capital inflows. Therefore any event that does not disrupt trade has little effect on demand for Thai Baht and therefore the exchange rate.
2. Thailand economy has been very resilient in recovering from all the adverse incidents over the last ten years. Recovery has been very quick.
3. Brits are so desperate to escape UK they will keep supplying GBP to exchange for THB.

I don't actually think that the GBP ; Baht exchange volume is a significant contributor to that exchange rate. The GBP : Baht exchange rate is determined by our relative exchange rates with other currencies, and the effectiveness of the markets in arbitraging any inconsistencies. So whether we went to Thailand, Portugal or Florida, the impact would be the same, and whether cars assembled in Thailand are sold in the UK or Japan it makes very little difference to the GBP - THB exchange rate.

SC

Edited February 27, 2013 by StreetCowboy

[Denizen]

I also admit to being mystified by the fact that the red shirt madness didn't hurt the baht appreciably, but as someone pointed out on another forum the ports continued to function as normal - tourism took a hit, but manufacturing didn't. So i went looking for signs that the floods may have hurt the baht. Nope. Yellow shirt blockade at Swampy ? Possibly - see the chart below and make your own conclusions.

Nov, 2008 - yellow shirts blockade Suvarnabhumi airport

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People's_Alliance_for_Democracy#Seizure_of_Suvarnabhumi_International_Airport

From 2009 on, the baht surged against the USD and has remained in a narrow band since.

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=THB&to=USD&view=5Y

Mar-May 2010 : red shirts protest / riot in central BKK

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Thai_political_protests

2010 floods cause ~1.7billion USD damage

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Thai_floods

2011 floods cause another 1.5billion USD damage

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Thailand_floods

One very resilient currency - I'll leave it to the board economists to explain how the baht can stay so strong through every disaster listed above, with the possible exception of the yellow shirt blockade. I accept that the Fed has printed an awful lot of new USD over the last 5 years, but it remains an exceptionally good outcome for the baht. Possibly a more interesting question is this : if you wanted to get the attention of Thailand's money men, which would you opt for : a protest in central BKK or a blockade way out at the airport ?

Thank God they reopened DM

The answers are simple:

1. Value of trade greatly exceeds all other capital inflows. Therefore any event that does not disrupt trade has little effect on demand for Thai Baht and therefore the exchange rate.
2. Thailand economy has been very resilient in recovering from all the adverse incidents over the last ten years. Recovery has been very quick.
3. Brits are so desperate to escape UK they will keep supplying GBP to exchange for THB.

I don't actually think that the GBP ; Baht exchange volume is a significant contributor to that exchange rate. The GBP : Baht exchange rate is determined by our relative exchange rates with other currencies, and the effectiveness of the markets in arbitraging any inconsistencies. So whether we went to Thailand, Portugal or Florida, the impact would be the same, and whether cars assembled in Thailand are sold in the UK or Japan it makes very little difference to the GBP - THB exchange rate.

SC

Considering that most Brits posting here are professing poverty every time the exchange rate goes down I think you are right. There is not enough GBP exchanged to affect the rate.

[GreenSnapper]

No matter how we think Thailand is run its still run on better long term economic principles than many Western countries.

If you study economics it becomes apparent that many countries like the US/ UK have been ruined over the last 30 years.

Where did you study economics?

At the Khao Sarn University?

[Berkshire]

No matter how we think Thailand is run its still run on better long term economic principles than many Western countries.

If you study economics it becomes apparent that many countries like the US/ UK have been ruined over the last 30 years.

Where did you study economics?

At the Khao Sarn University?

Of course, you don't have much to dispute the Chopperboy's statement. Unless you truly believe that the US/UK is being governed on sound, financial principles. In which case, I would ask if you're living in La-La Land.

[bangkokburning]

Thailand is in a serious conumdrum.

China is set to fail spectacularly, it will pull down Asia.

Thailand cannot cut interest rates. They will have to print money and debase the currency as the rest of the world. They are simpmy waiting out what happens to EU,USD, JPY and China.

I have read some very interesting stuff as of late, Thailand with its building boom looking at 1997 all over again.

[bangkokburning]

To compare currencies of major players and their economies with Thailand is folly on so many levels.

Thailand is a tiny economy, agro driven, superfically in wto, does what it pleases when it suits within asean.

Big currencies act, Thailand merely reacts.

[MrWorldwide]

Bangkokburning, did you actually read the intro to that earlier post of mine ?

I also admit to being mystified by the fact that the red shirt madness didn't hurt the baht appreciably, but as someone pointed out on another forum the ports continued to function as normal - tourism took a hit, but manufacturing didn't.

I'm including 'agriculture' in the manufacturing - produce still has to be packaged and shipped. Unless, of course, it's extremely perishable and needs to be flown to a country like Japan ASAP - in which case, the yellow-shirt blockade would have impacted that particular export. Blockade Bangkok's ports and I wonder how long the powers that be would allow that to continue ?

The World Bank has this 'crystal ball' of the Thai economy in 2013 - a lot more current than the Wikipedia page

• Real GDP in 2012 is projected to grow by 4.7 percent. It is supported mainly by household consumption and investments as part of flood rehabilitation and the government’s consumption-stimulating measures.
• The economy is projected to grow by 5 percent in 2013 as manufacturing production fully recovers from the floods and the global economy sees a modest recovery.
• Exports in 2013 are expected to grow by 5.5 percent in US dollar terms, compared to only 3.6 percent in 2012. Domestic demand, particularly in investments, will continue its momentum from this year as foreign direct investment (FDI) rises sharply
• The main challenge in 2013 for Thailand’s growth continues to be the high uncertainty in global economic prospects, particularly related to the Eurozone crisis. To improve growth in the long-term, Thailand should prioritize skills development and the need to reduce inequalities in incomes and human development outcomes.
• Government spending could be prioritized from short-term stimulus programs and very costly ones like the paddy pledging scheme to long term development programs which targets lower income and vulnerable groups and also helps to reduce regional disparities

http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2012/12/19/thailand-economic-monitor-december-2012-key-findings

Whether we agree with that report or not, it was written by people who are paid to look at numbers and make predictions, presumably based on some sort of past performance. Until someone here offers to pay me for my predictions, I'm going to go with a coin toss : heads Thailand, tails Indonesia. Life just got a whole lot simpler

[chiangmaikelly]

To compare currencies of major players and their economies with Thailand is folly on so many levels.

Thailand is a tiny economy, agro driven, superfically in wto, does what it pleases when it suits within asean.

Big currencies act, Thailand merely reacts.

What percent of the Thai economy is agriculture? What percent is industry?

[MrWorldwide]

According to Wikipedia, agriculture has declined as a percentage of GDP in line with the rise of manufacturing, but service industries (tourism and finance mainly) still represent a large chunk of GDP.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thailand_economy

Some might grumble about Wikipedia - happy to see other links.

[Denizen]

To compare currencies of major players and their economies with Thailand is folly on so many levels.

Thailand is a tiny economy, agro driven, superfically in wto, does what it pleases when it suits within asean.

Big currencies act, Thailand merely reacts.

There is one major problem with your argument. Thai banks strictly follow the principle that they won't lend money unless the borrower has money.

[Denizen]

According to Wikipedia, agriculture has declined as a percentage of GDP in line with the rise of manufacturing, but service industries (tourism and finance mainly) still represent a large chunk of GDP.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thailand_economy

Some might grumble about Wikipedia - happy to see other links.

Here you go. Services is the biggest employer and the biggest GDP contributor. For your enlightenment:

GDP - composition by sector

agriculture: 13.3%

industry: 34%

services: 52.7% (2011 est.)

Labor force - by occupation

agriculture: 40.7%

industry: 13.2%

services: 46.1% (2011 est.)

Note how small the industry labor force is relative to its contribution to GDP.

http://www.indexmundi.com/thailand/economy_profile.html

Please don't thank me. Effusive accolades and people prostrating themselves embarrass me.

Edited February 27, 2013 by Denizen

[MrWorldwide]

Denizen, I don't find it particularly 'enlightening' that the other two sectors employ more people than manufacturing : Ford and others wouldn't build highly automated factories if they still had to employ half the province just to get cars out the door ...

Those '21st century' factories are actually in Thailand's favour - without that level of investment, what would stop the corporations moving their production to Vietnam or Bangladesh simply to take advantage of cheaper labour costs ? That is exactly what some of the Chinese companies are doing - abandoning their own labour force in favor of other countries. Interesting times ahead.

[Denizen]

Denizen, I don't find it particularly 'enlightening' that the other two sectors employ more people than manufacturing : Ford and others wouldn't build highly automated factories if they still had to employ half the province just to get cars out the door ...

Those '21st century' factories are actually in Thailand's favour - without that level of investment, what would stop the corporations moving their production to Vietnam or Bangladesh simply to take advantage of cheaper labour costs ? That is exactly what some of the Chinese companies are doing - abandoning their own labour force in favor of other countries. Interesting times ahead.

Maybe manufacturing will return to UK from China with British workers horizontal and snoring while the machines turn out union jack coffee mugs for export to jingoistic British expats.

Maybe Australians can start manufacturing the stuffed kangaroos and koalas currently imported from China.

Edited February 27, 2013 by Denizen

[meatballs]

Well, I've just booked a 3,000 baht a month apartment. No air-con, no hot water. How's that for dealing with things? At least I'm saving money on rent.

[Denizen]

Well, I've just booked a 3,000 baht a month apartment. No air-con, no hot water. How's that for dealing with things? At least I'm saving money on rent.

UK really has gone down the gurgler. So the GBP has been replaced by the Thai Baht in UK?

Edited February 27, 2013 by Denizen

[MrWorldwide]

3000 baht a month ? Based on the cheapest hotel room I've ever stayed in, there is a point where that has to be a false economy. I would spend at least another 20K every month getting drunk enough to go back to an apartment like that !

[tw25rw]

I stay in one like that. The gf lives in it and has done for years. The variable shower temp takes getting used to, as does the extreme humidity at times, but once I'm used to it anything else seems a waste.

[Berkshire]

Well, I've just booked a 3,000 baht a month apartment. No air-con, no hot water. How's that for dealing with things? At least I'm saving money on rent.

I'm not sure if this is something you want to be sharing with the masses. It's like boasting that you drink rain water, bath in the pond outside your dirt-floor shack, and eat poached cockroaches for dinner. I can find an apartment cheaper than 3,000/month, but I certainly wouldn't want to live in it!