The Thai-Baht And The Future Of Farangs In Thailand

[mania]

GDP is a very poor indicator especially when it comes to the USA

the formula for GPD is as follows

GDP = private consumption + gross investment + government spending + (exports − imports)

Because of what I bolded & underlined GDP *especially* for USA is very misleading

Better to stick to revenues vs debts if folks want a good picture of reality

Edited March 5, 2013 by mania

[mania]

Yes, a trillion dollars isn't all that much money.

http://www.pagetutor.com/trillion/index.html

[NeverSure]

GDP is a very poor indicator especially when it comes to the USA

the formula for GPD is as follows

GDP = private consumption + gross investment + government spending + (exports − imports)

Because of what I bolded & underlined GDP for the *especially* for USA is very misleading

Better to stick to revenues vs debts if folks want a good picture of reality

Please make that "better stick to revenues + assets vs debts." That's how you do a financial statement. You don't leave out assets.

[StreetCowboy]

GDP is a very poor indicator especially when it comes to the USA

the formula for GPD is as follows

GDP = private consumption + gross investment + government spending + (exports − imports)

Because of what I bolded & underlined GDP for the *especially* for USA is very misleading

Better to stick to revenues vs debts if folks want a good picture of reality

Please make that "better stick to revenues + assets vs debts." That's how you do a financial statement. You don't leave out assets.

You have a Profit and Loss Account, and a Balance Sheet.

The profit and Loss Account is supported by a Cash Flow statement, and this year's Balance Sheet, is reconciled against last year's Balance Sheet and this year's Cash Flow and Profit and Loss.

that's how you do a financial statement. And if the P & L is positive, and the Cash Flow is positive, then the Balance Sheet is irrelevant.

SC

Edited March 5, 2013 by StreetCowboy

[NeverSure]

GDP is a very poor indicator especially when it comes to the USA

the formula for GPD is as follows

GDP = private consumption + gross investment + government spending + (exports − imports)

Because of what I bolded & underlined GDP for the *especially* for USA is very misleading

Better to stick to revenues vs debts if folks want a good picture of reality

Please make that "better stick to revenues + assets vs debts." That's how you do a financial statement. You don't leave out assets.

You have a Profit and Loss Account, and a Balance Sheet.

The profit and Loss Account is supported by a Cash Flow statement, and this year's Balance Sheet, is reconciled against last year's Balance Sheet and this year's Cash Flow and Profit and Loss.

that's how you do a financial statement. And if the P & L is positive, and the Cash Flow is positive, then the Balance Sheet is irrelevant.

SC

SC

"And if the P & L is positive, and the Cash Flow is positive, then the Balance Sheet is irrelevant."

Not quite. If my balance sheet shows assets of 100 trillion dollars, and liabilities of 16 trillion dollars, it could hardly be called irrelevant.

If my balance sheet showed assets that were immediately capable of producing ten trillion dollars in additional revenue each year if only put to use, they would hardly be irrelevant.

I started my adult life as a banker. I made a lot of good and appropriate loans to people who didn't have enough income to support the loans. I remember one in particular. The guy was living in an unpainted old shack of a house with weeds grown all up around it and he was probably 75 then. He got by on very little income and in no way qualified for the loan based on income BUT:

He owned 200 acres of prime timber free and clear around that ramshackle old house and his plan was to sell enough timber to pay off the loan. The lumber market was good and he was way more than good for that loan. Of course I approved the loan.

[LawrenceChee]

You should go into politics coz you obviously know a lot of what the US govt owns but refuses to use or sell :-) seems funny one would want to get into debt rather than use your assets and restart your engine

In the meantime the joke in china stands ...the Chinese are paying for the toilet paper Obama uses daily.

[NeverSure]

You should go into politics coz you obviously know a lot of what the US govt owns but refuses to use or sell :-) seems funny one would want to get into debt rather than use your assets and restart your engine In the meantime the joke in china stands ...the Chinese are paying for the toilet paper Obama uses daily.

Well, I like your Obama joke, but the rest of it is no joke. The enviroterrorists in the US have shut down the use of federal resources. Every time I turn around they are putting another big chunk of it into "wilderness area" which means it can't be touched. Never mind that trees are a renewable resource and can be replanted and harvest again every 40 years. Never mind that we need more oil and we have it or that we need electricity but rather than building they are tearing them down.

If it's a joke it's one of the worst in history.

[HardenedSoul]

-snip-

But so far, no-one has really shown any comparison between the Thai economy and other comparable econoomies. The comparison has always been with the US and the UK, which are both deliberately trying to devalue their currency - with some success, it appears.

SC

The real money is in the West. The innovation flows from the West. The West owns the patents and the minimum wage Thais make the products. The IPhone may be made in China, but the big profits are going to the West. The big money in the internet is being made in the West. Just look at Google and I could go on and on. Ebay and Amazon are worldwide. China blocks Ebay and Google and tries to have their own and it sucks.

Oh get real. The real money is in Asia. The West has trillions of dollars of paper, every sheet of it subject to counterparty risk.

There's merit in what you say about innovations and patents but Asia is pissing all over intellectual property rights. Is it right? No, of course not. Is it happening? Hell, yes!

China's versions of Google and others may be <deleted> but with 1.3 billion of them, are you going to argue with their potential for profitability?

[LawrenceChee]

Agree with you hardened soul

Whoever posted about that had no idea on ten cent that's running QQ..com or alibaba and the profits it's driving for the owners

So it's a sad comparison Facebook may be global IPOed but its real financial status is sad and can take a leaf from qq model to turn innovation into actual profitability and long term viability

[metisdead]

I think we're getting off topic here, perhaps people need to go back and read the Opening Post and get back the topic.

[StreetCowboy]

Bytheway, Neversure, the CIA say you're wrong about the oil reserves

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2178rank.html

13th in the world, significantly less than the rest of the world combined.

I reckon per capita about double the UK's reserves...

SC

Well figures don't lie, but liars figure. Just as the US numbers for inflation and unemployment are lies, so are oil reserves lies. From your link, all the sneaky wording; emphasis mine:

"Country Comparison :: Oil - proved reserves

This entry is the stock of proved reserves of crude oil in barrels (bbl). Proved reserves are those quantities of petroleum which, by analysis of geological and engineering data, can be estimated with a high degree of confidence to be commercially recoverable from a given date forward, from known reservoirs and under current economic conditions."

I could go on all day about known reserves which aren't "proven" by their standards. You almost have to pump it out of the ground to "prove" it.

So much of the prime ground for oil is off limits to "proving" even though everyone knows it's there. I won't go on and on about the places off the coasts of the Atlantic and Pacific and of course the Gulf, and then there's that along the Rockies and that in Alaska. That's not to mention Texas and Oklahoma and N. Dakota and California and others where oil is already being produced.

Even though there was a record 2,000 million barrels discovered in 2010 alone, Link it was all on private land in areas already being drilled for oil. If you listen to the government and hear what they want you to hear, you'll reach a number they want you to hear. They don't want exploration or drilling for environmental reasons, so they say. If you listen to the oil men about the areas that are off limits, it's there.

"In fact, within eight short years, the U.S. will surpass Saudi Arabia in terms of oil production, the International Energy Agency said Monday." Link

Well, given the choice of the CIA, whose data is consistent with what I see with my eyes, and a bloke off the internet behind a cloak of anonymity, I'll form my own opinion.

As I've said elsewhere

"A lot of our posters seem to combine naive stupidity with paranoid cynicism."

(Sorry, can't post the link in my usual manner)

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/622661-how-corrupt-is-thailand-your-perception/page-9#entry6168548

SC

So you consider Forbes Magazine which is highly esteemed in the business world to be just "some bloke off the internet?

And you'd actually trust government figures when it's obvious they have a political agenda, over well known business people?

I chose my reference carefully to give it credibility.

An interesting speculative discussion piece, I thought.

Some of the supporting graphs were interesting, showing that we're still in the regime of cheap oil, in real terms, by historical standards. But nowhere did they say that the US had greater oil reserves than any other country. They said that the US would, in the future, start extracting oil from tar sands and shales, and importing oil from Mexico and Canada; implicitly assuming, I believe, that Asian markets will price American buyers out of Middle Eastern oil, and it will become commercially viable to extract the remaining less easily extracted reserves in the US. In addition, in less well explored locations, more reserves will be found as the real price increases...

But not relevant to this thread.

SC

[Ministry of Som Tam]

To the OP :

1.) It's had it!

2.) There isn't one!

[chiangmaikelly]

To the OP :

1.) It's had it!

2.) There isn't one!

Please go to http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/589648-thai-visa-brigades/page-35#entry6172555 post #855 and register. Thank you.

[StreetCowboy]

Since the currencies were allowed to float against the metal, the pound sterling has depreciated significantly less than the baht.

Had they fared equally, it would be about 30 baht to the pound, by my calculations.

For those of us who are paid in third currencies, or who sell our services and products in competitive international markets, the value of pieces of paper is relatively unimportant; the current round of inflationary printing merely allows us to welch on our debts to some extent, and cut our prices and salaries slightly less painfully. It's a bit unfortunate on those who had gambled on the commitments of government and their fixed income promises, and those who had carelessly left their assets in unproductive cash.

And, I suppose, the knock-on loss of confidence in markets and economies, which affects us all, to some extent.

SC

[chiangmaikelly]

Was it not Lemon cake who told the story about the successful family with a very profitable laundry business who just stopped and went back to the farm? Farm labor may seem intense and seasonal but one should really add up all the perks before one poo poohs it. Ya got room and board and booze and the farmers daughters before they go to Pattaya. Now what's not to like about that.

If the Thai baht was not solid it would not appreciate. If the Thai unemployment figures and the GDP were not solid the Thai baht would not appreciate. 40% of Thais farm because they like to farm. It is a real job. They don't have to work in a factory if they don't want to. Gosh folks they have to import the beggars from other countries. Thai people don't have the time nor the inclination. Think about that for a second. How many countries import their beggars? How many third world corrupt impoverished countries are at full employment, building like crazy with local money and foreign investment.

I think what we have here is a failure to communicate. The OP asks the poignant question, "how would you cope with a pay-cut of 30 to 50% ?" The folks including myself who live here, if we still have assets in the West are going to take a 30 to 50% percent pay cut. How are you going to cope with it. I stopped smoking and drinking and that gave me an extra 50% (I drank quite a bit).

But how many people who posted in this thread actually live here? Two I think. But for the rest, the bile that is cast forth boggles the imagination that such a person would ever want to leave the hallowed shores of the paradise where they came from to enter a so called; bungling, corrupt, dirty, third world society such as Thailand.

Me, I look at Thailand as family; I try to help when I see a problem; learn when I see expertise. I would certainly not tell anyone in my family over and over again about their obvious faults.

[NeverSure]

Was it not Lemon cake who told the story about the successful family with a very profitable laundry business who just stopped and went back to the farm? Farm labor may seem intense and seasonal but one should really add up all the perks before one poo poohs it. Ya got room and board and booze and the farmers daughters before they go to Pattaya. Now what's not to like about that.

If the Thai baht was not solid it would not appreciate. If the Thai unemployment figures and the GDP were not solid the Thai baht would not appreciate. 40% of Thais farm because they like to farm. It is a real job. They don't have to work in a factory if they don't want to. Gosh folks they have to import the beggars from other countries. Thai people don't have the time nor the inclination. Think about that for a second. How many countries import their beggars? How many third world corrupt impoverished countries are at full employment, building like crazy with local money and foreign investment.

I think what we have here is a failure to communicate. The OP asks the poignant question, "how would you cope with a pay-cut of 30 to 50% ?" The folks including myself who live here, if we still have assets in the West are going to take a 30 to 50% percent pay cut. How are you going to cope with it. I stopped smoking and drinking and that gave me an extra 50% (I drank quite a bit).

But how many people who posted in this thread actually live here? Two I think. But for the rest, the bile that is cast forth boggles the imagination that such a person would ever want to leave the hallowed shores of the paradise where they came from to enter a so called; bungling, corrupt, dirty, third world society such as Thailand.

Me, I look at Thailand as family; I try to help when I see a problem; learn when I see expertise. I would certainly not tell anyone in my family over and over again about their obvious faults.

"If the Thai baht was not solid it would not appreciate. If the Thai unemployment figures and the GDP were not solid the Thai baht would not appreciate. 40% of Thais farm because they like to farm. It is a real job."

The Thai baht is appreciating because of massive inflows of foreign investment. In order to invest in Thailand, you need baht. Never mind that one is investing in a condo project that is just another empty same same, but with increasingly smaller rooms and fewer amenities for higher prices.

As for unemployment figures, they are a joke. What is described as hanging around a farm drinking cheap beer and banging the Isaan girls before they make it to Pattaya would hardly be considered "being employed" by Western standards. Yet with 40% of Thais doing just that and another unknown percentage doing other things that barely get them by such as having a fruit cart in the middle of nowhere, Thailand boasts an unemployment rate of almost 0%.

I don't know about other Western countries, but in the US the unemployment rate is a direct measure of those who are collecting weekly unemployment checks. That's it. About 8%. There is another underemployed and "having given up" group that isn't accounted for, but at least it is admitted that it isn't accounted for. Thailand won't admit to anything.

(As an aside, if it weren't for unemployment checks which roll in every week for about 2 years, a lot more people would find jobs. Isn't it amazing how many people suddenly find a job just before their two years of benefits run out?)

There is no transparency in Thailand. They tell you what you want to hear. If you believe the unemployment rate, you're already under the ether. It's not too far of a drop into permanent unconsciousness to then believe in the solidity of the real estate price boom. Next one could believe that Thai banks, with their record lending, aren't again vulnerable to this real estate boom. Next one could believe that Thais haven't bought into Western consumerism, and are increasingly getting into worse and worse consumer debt.

It wasn't and isn't a lack of industry which brought recession to the West. It was a spending problem. Consumers were drunk with debt as were businesses and governments. Most people thought that everything was rosy and that prices and prosperity would never stop increasing. Banks were lending based on a belief that real estate prices would always go up. There was a major lack of transparency in the financial markets to the point of outright fraud.

The very moment that international investors realize that the Emperor Has No Clothes they will want out of the Thai baht like yesterday. It won't matter if the industrial sector continues to do OK as it is in the West. Look at profits on the stock exchanges. I mean real earnings, but it's irrelevant to the overall health of the economy. People have lost real wealth on the personal front. Banks have either gone under or been bailed out.

With the very same setup of speculative real estate pricing and building, and borrowing based on consumerism and "investment" as what took the West down just five or six year ago, and took Thailand down just 15 years ago, it boggles my mind why people think it can't or won't happen again.

[MrWorldwide]

The Aussies are laughing ...

No exchange issues there ... near an all time 10 year high against the Baht.

.

10-year high would be up around 35 baht - granted, we are clinging to ~30, but I dont consider that 'near'. Still, I accept that many here would be happy to have our 'problems' ....

If anything, the AUD is trending down against the baht atm on the 10y chart, having been well above 30 for the majority of the last 2 years.

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=AUD&to=THB&view=10Y

[chiangmaikelly]

Was it not Lemon cake who told the story about the successful family with a very profitable laundry business who just stopped and went back to the farm? Farm labor may seem intense and seasonal but one should really add up all the perks before one poo poohs it. Ya got room and board and booze and the farmers daughters before they go to Pattaya. Now what's not to like about that.

If the Thai baht was not solid it would not appreciate. If the Thai unemployment figures and the GDP were not solid the Thai baht would not appreciate. 40% of Thais farm because they like to farm. It is a real job. They don't have to work in a factory if they don't want to. Gosh folks they have to import the beggars from other countries. Thai people don't have the time nor the inclination. Think about that for a second. How many countries import their beggars? How many third world corrupt impoverished countries are at full employment, building like crazy with local money and foreign investment.

I think what we have here is a failure to communicate. The OP asks the poignant question, "how would you cope with a pay-cut of 30 to 50% ?" The folks including myself who live here, if we still have assets in the West are going to take a 30 to 50% percent pay cut. How are you going to cope with it. I stopped smoking and drinking and that gave me an extra 50% (I drank quite a bit).

But how many people who posted in this thread actually live here? Two I think. But for the rest, the bile that is cast forth boggles the imagination that such a person would ever want to leave the hallowed shores of the paradise where they came from to enter a so called; bungling, corrupt, dirty, third world society such as Thailand.

Me, I look at Thailand as family; I try to help when I see a problem; learn when I see expertise. I would certainly not tell anyone in my family over and over again about their obvious faults.

"If the Thai baht was not solid it would not appreciate. If the Thai unemployment figures and the GDP were not solid the Thai baht would not appreciate. 40% of Thais farm because they like to farm. It is a real job."

The Thai baht is appreciating because of massive inflows of foreign investment. In order to invest in Thailand, you need baht. Never mind that one is investing in a condo project that is just another empty same same, but with increasingly smaller rooms and fewer amenities for higher prices.

As for unemployment figures, they are a joke. What is described as hanging around a farm drinking cheap beer and banging the Isaan girls before they make it to Pattaya would hardly be considered "being employed" by Western standards. Yet with 40% of Thais doing just that and another unknown percentage doing other things that barely get them by such as having a fruit cart in the middle of nowhere, Thailand boasts an unemployment rate of almost 0%.

I don't know about other Western countries, but in the US the unemployment rate is a direct measure of those who are collecting weekly unemployment checks. That's it. About 8%. There is another underemployed and "having given up" group that isn't accounted for, but at least it is admitted that it isn't accounted for. Thailand won't admit to anything.

(As an aside, if it weren't for unemployment checks which roll in every week for about 2 years, a lot more people would find jobs. Isn't it amazing how many people suddenly find a job just before their two years of benefits run out?)

There is no transparency in Thailand. They tell you what you want to hear. If you believe the unemployment rate, you're already under the ether. It's not too far of a drop into permanent unconsciousness to then believe in the solidity of the real estate price boom. Next one could believe that Thai banks, with their record lending, aren't again vulnerable to this real estate boom. Next one could believe that Thais haven't bought into Western consumerism, and are increasingly getting into worse and worse consumer debt.

It wasn't and isn't a lack of industry which brought recession to the West. It was a spending problem. Consumers were drunk with debt as were businesses and governments. Most people thought that everything was rosy and that prices and prosperity would never stop increasing. Banks were lending based on a belief that real estate prices would always go up. There was a major lack of transparency in the financial markets to the point of outright fraud.

The very moment that international investors realize that the Emperor Has No Clothes they will want out of the Thai baht like yesterday. It won't matter if the industrial sector continues to do OK as it is in the West. Look at profits on the stock exchanges. I mean real earnings, but it's irrelevant to the overall health of the economy. People have lost real wealth on the personal front. Banks have either gone under or been bailed out.

With the very same setup of speculative real estate pricing and building, and borrowing based on consumerism and "investment" as what took the West down just five or six year ago, and took Thailand down just 15 years ago, it boggles my mind why people think it can't or won't happen again.

Ya, ya ya. Everybody is wrong. The banks are wrong. All the agencies that provide information to the international banks and brokers are all wrong. The sky is falling according to you. Who are you? Ford, Honda, Central group, Bosch automotive and a thousand others top notch corporations with top notch economists all think the economy is stable and future strong. You don't live in Thailand. You have never lived in Thailand. You don't know anything about Thailand beyond a few weeks of vacation. This thread is about how are Farangs going to live here with a 30 to 50% pay cut. Since you will never live here why are you even posting. The thread is not about doom and gloom for the baht. Everyone who knows anything about currency knows that is not in the near future. The thread is about how are Farangs who live in Thailand going to make ends meet with a declining Western currency.

[StreetCowboy]

...

Ya, ya ya. Everybody is wrong. The banks are wrong. All the agencies that provide information to the international banks and brokers are all wrong. The sky is falling according to you. Who are you? Ford, Honda, Central group, Bosch automotive and a thousand others top notch corporations with top notch economists all think the economy is stable and future strong. You don't live in Thailand. You have never lived in Thailand. You don't know anything about Thailand beyond a few weeks of vacation. This thread is about how are Farangs going to live here with a 30 to 50% pay cut. Since you will never live here why are you even posting. The thread is not about doom and gloom for the baht. Everyone who knows anything about currency knows that is not in the near future. The thread is about how are Farangs who live in Thailand going to make ends meet with a declining Western currency.

I think his point was that the decline is only short-term temporary, and soon, the Thai economy and the baht will collapse, survivalists will take over the US at the expense of liberals and environmentalists, and the exchange rate will be the least of our worries.

Personally, I'm more worried about the lack of confidence in currencies generally that has been engendered by our governments' reckless inflationary printing; without confidence in one's current assets, lending, borrowing, saving and investing all become more difficult.

I've got some money that I want to set aside against future liabilities in the 3 - 5 year frame, and I can't find anywhere safe and convenient for it.

SC

[Naam]

Thailand will not escape the coming crash.

in a dozen Thaivisa threads one can read this claim umpteen times since nearly seven years. that means it must be true

[chiangmaikelly]

First, let's get off the "live in Thailand" part. It's irrelevant. This is global studies. In fact, I'd come closer to saying that living in Thailand might put blinders on you as to what's happening in the world.

From the OP, "So therefore, as a farang, living here on a fixed pension from overseas, how would you cope with a pay-cut of 30 to 50% ?"

Of course this is about living in Thailand. This is an about living in Thailand forum. The name of the forum is Thai Visa. So lets get off the not living in Thailand part cause you are wrong. The topic is, "The Thai-baht and the future of Farangs in Thailand.

Edited March 6, 2013 by chiangmaikelly

[NeverSure]

First, let's get off the "live in Thailand" part. It's irrelevant. This is global studies. In fact, I'd come closer to saying that living in Thailand might put blinders on you as to what's happening in the world.

From the OP, "So therefore, as a farang, living here on a fixed pension from overseas, how would you cope with a pay-cut of 30 to 50% ?"

Of course this is about living in Thailand. This is an about living in Thailand forum. The name of the forum is Thai Visa. So lets get off the not living in Thailand part cause you are wrong. The topic is, "The Thai-baht and the future of Farangs in Thailand.

And, I will be moving to Thailand later this year. I have to think, too. I have to plan. Where will I put my money? I'd be crazy to not be studying the world markets and economies and currencies as much as I can. My money has to last for the rest of my life too.

I will not be putting much money into baht anytime soon. I will not be buying a condo. I will not be long on Thailand. I will not be long on any currency. I will not be putting money into Asia.

[chiangmaikelly]

First, let's get off the "live in Thailand" part. It's irrelevant. This is global studies. In fact, I'd come closer to saying that living in Thailand might put blinders on you as to what's happening in the world.

From the OP, "So therefore, as a farang, living here on a fixed pension from overseas, how would you cope with a pay-cut of 30 to 50% ?"

Of course this is about living in Thailand. This is an about living in Thailand forum. The name of the forum is Thai Visa. So lets get off the not living in Thailand part cause you are wrong. The topic is, "The Thai-baht and the future of Farangs in Thailand.

And, I will be moving to Thailand later this year. I have to think, too. I have to plan. Where will I put my money? I'd be crazy to not be studying the world markets and economies and currencies as much as I can. My money has to last for the rest of my life too.

I will not be putting much money into baht anytime soon. I will not be buying a condo. I will not be long on Thailand. I will not be long on any currency. I will not be putting money into Asia.

Then why in heavens name move to a place you hold in such contempt?

[LawrenceChee]

I know there are a lot of people out there who wish china would fail and bring the world economy to a standstill so that there is someone to blame...the Chinese government officials I spoke to are well aware of the world expectation and they do not want that.

Have a look at Wen Jia Bao recent outgoing speech. Anyone who do not have blinkers would know this man lays subtle hints on what the party leadership thinks and wants

He has made it clear in the next 10 years with a new president that is pro military the stance on the territorial disputes. You can call them bullies etc etc but you will do the same if you consider your own country's interests and remember in every western empire of today there was something they didn't want to let go and they need to accept china is no different

His tone is also steering the nation into a balanced model of trade and internal governance / reliance like Japan.

He has asked for greater domestic consumption vs exports and what some of the fanatic west ranters is going to happen. China will be closer to the ground with its Asian neighbors and slow its export related trade gradually to a pace they can manage as they try to counterbalance the environmental damage of producing for the world

He has also hinted the govt will no longer accept high growth rates and a higher military spending is essential to protect a country with many envious eyes. The new high speed rail is intended for that and for some who ask repeatedly what the northern cousins who are insane are for..hint they dog good tunnels

As for using Foxconn as an example sooner or later people are going to run out of money to buy these new gadgets ....so a slowdown in hiring is not unexpected as there has been nothing new maybe till apple launch a new apple watch !

So I don't believe markets will crash but certainly things which used to be cheaper is not going to be in years to come. That is reality the west could no longer produce good cheaply in spite of its innovation and for years have been burdening the east with its cheap labor

We are running out of cheap markets where that can be done so time I roll up your sleeves and go back to old values kick some ass and get real work done and stop being lazy is my best advice to the youth of today

[LawrenceChee]

I agree with CMK - with your contempt I hope you are not considering CM as your temporary home in Thailand

Go somewhere where worldly views and domestic bashing is accepted :-)

[Naam]

For openers, I shorted the hell out of the Chinese stock market 2 years
ago when "everyone" was saying to go all in in China. Why did I short it
while most "experts" were saying to go long? Because I have common
sense. The West is China's big market. The West stumbled. How could that
not affect China?

I went contrarian and dam_n near doubled my money.

a common misconception is to equate markets and their asset prices with the

economy of a country. whatever i touched in 2009 in my niche of investments

did not double but tripled and quadrupled in price. some stock markets (e.g. DOW)

are at all time highs or higher than precrash Lehman 2008. does that mean the

economies to whom these markets belong are in good shape? no, it does not!

you could make 300% profit with Greek government bonds last year. is Greece's

rating triple A? no, Greece is still a potential bankruptcy candidate. the list of

similar examples is endless.

by the way, not all experts suggested to go long China, au contraire! anybody with

common sense could see (and read) that gamblers took the SSE to heights which

were not at all justified and it took several years to shake out hot money which was

borrowed. your shorting was the right decision but the reason you claim is not valid.

[NeverSure]

CHINA CRASH 2012: Here's Why It's Finally Happening

Ha Ha. I have danged near doubled my money in the past 2+ years shorting the Shanghai Composite. That was contrarian as hell, but common sense says that China's biggest customers are deep in recession. No brainer as far as I'm concerned.

Now look at the China charts. While there is some possible sign of a bottoming of the recession in the West, some sign of housing recovery or bottoming with a lot of investment coming back into it, and a blistering Dow, China's charts are going in the opposite direction as if a delayed reaction is occurring, which it is.

China is too big to not affect all of SE Asia, just as the West is too big to not affect China.

[chiangmaikelly]

For openers, I shorted the hell out of the Chinese stock market 2 years

ago when "everyone" was saying to go all in in China. Why did I short it

while most "experts" were saying to go long? Because I have common

sense. The West is China's big market. The West stumbled. How could that

not affect China?

I went contrarian and dam_n near doubled my money.

a common misconception is to equate markets and their asset prices with the

economy of a country. whatever i touched in 2009 in my niche of investments

did not double but tripled and quadrupled in price. some stock markets (e.g. DOW)

are at all time highs or higher than precrash Lehman 2008. does that mean the

economies to whom these markets belong are in good shape? no, it does not!

you could make 300% profit with Greek government bonds last year. is Greece's

rating triple A? no, Greece is still a potential bankruptcy candidate. the list of

similar examples is endless.

by the way, not all experts suggested to go long China, au contraire! anybody with

common sense could see (and read) that gamblers took the SSE to heights which

were not at all justified and it took several years to shake out hot money which was

borrowed. your shorting was the right decision but the reason you claim is not valid.

It is really too bad that the Chinese forum is missing out on all this great information.

[StreetCowboy]

...

Ya, ya ya. Everybody is wrong. The banks are wrong. All the agencies that provide information to the international banks and brokers are all wrong. The sky is falling according to you. Who are you? Ford, Honda, Central group, Bosch automotive and a thousand others top notch corporations with top notch economists all think the economy is stable and future strong. You don't live in Thailand. You have never lived in Thailand. You don't know anything about Thailand beyond a few weeks of vacation. This thread is about how are Farangs going to live here with a 30 to 50% pay cut. Since you will never live here why are you even posting. The thread is not about doom and gloom for the baht. Everyone who knows anything about currency knows that is not in the near future. The thread is about how are Farangs who live in Thailand going to make ends meet with a declining Western currency.

I think his point was that the decline is only short-term temporary, and soon, the Thai economy and the baht will collapse, survivalists will take over the US at the expense of liberals and environmentalists, and the exchange rate will be the least of our worries.

Personally, I'm more worried about the lack of confidence in currencies generally that has been engendered by our governments' reckless inflationary printing; without confidence in one's current assets, lending, borrowing, saving and investing all become more difficult.

I've got some money that I want to set aside against future liabilities in the 3 - 5 year frame, and I can't find anywhere safe and convenient for it.

SC

Enjoy putting words in my mouth. I keep posting charts and facts and I get back such remarks. Why won't someone take on my facts?

...

...

OK. So in a nutshell, what were you saying?

I read your interesting article on US oil imports, and I think it did not support your gross exaggerations, which were contradicted by reputable sources.

For one reason or another I can't access your graphs on Chinese markets, but in my opinion, US industry won't replace imports until the imports become more expensive - which is the objective of the competitive devaluation of the dollar and impoverishment of the American populace, particularly those that are debt-free with cash assets.

So, in a nutshell, what are you saying? And how is that different from my summary, apart from that your summary will big up your wit and wisdom, while mine presents it in a lampoon's spotlight?

SC

[NeverSure]

For openers, I shorted the hell out of the Chinese stock market 2 years

ago when "everyone" was saying to go all in in China. Why did I short it

while most "experts" were saying to go long? Because I have common

sense. The West is China's big market. The West stumbled. How could that

not affect China?

I went contrarian and dam_n near doubled my money.

a common misconception is to equate markets and their asset prices with the

economy of a country. whatever i touched in 2009 in my niche of investments

did not double but tripled and quadrupled in price. some stock markets (e.g. DOW)

are at all time highs or higher than precrash Lehman 2008. does that mean the

economies to whom these markets belong are in good shape? no, it does not!

you could make 300% profit with Greek government bonds last year. is Greece's

rating triple A? no, Greece is still a potential bankruptcy candidate. the list of

similar examples is endless.

by the way, not all experts suggested to go long China, au contraire! anybody with

common sense could see (and read) that gamblers took the SSE to heights which

were not at all justified and it took several years to shake out hot money which was

borrowed. your shorting was the right decision but the reason you claim is not valid.

"your shorting was the right decision but the reason you claim is not valid."

Of course the reason was valid. WHO is posting the charts here? WHO is talking off their heads, and who is doing research?

China's biggest customers suddenly went deep into recession. What's that going to do to China? What's it doing to China?

China is going bust.